Sorry mate you lost me there.
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Why? I believe it's very clear as Nor wished for another tragedy (preferably involving infant tragedy in China) while you believe that if it happened, it would be covered up because of 'face'?
Meanwhile, we have in NZ ongoing infant killing incidents where the killers are granted 'face'* and are able to escape justice (shame about the murdered infants) which is why the infant killings continue in NZ.
* 'face' as in NZ justice system where the perpetrators have more rights than the victims.
Remember the 'Kahui Twins' whose heads were bashed in but nobody has been held responsible?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_a...ahui_homicides
Face as in 'our NZ is all about equal justice and law & order ' to show the world. Never mind victim rights - it's all about criminal rights.
Never mind that killers are given 'face' and allowed to roam in society.
You have a lot to learn about the reality of today's world, Ancient Mariner - still living in the Colonial Era?
Back to where ATM future prospects and where its sp could go from here.
A very successful fund manager advised me years ago that he always look for divergent views on a stock, rather than blindly follow the herd which is the norm in the broking industry where analysts & brokers all have the same directional call on a stock.
Divergent views mean that someone is going to be very right and that's where the real opportunities are.
So with ATM today, we have the following updated recommendations and target prices :
Morgans ADD $6.65
UBS BUY $12.50
Bell Porter BUY $8.50
Credit Suisse SELL $5.00
Citi SELL $5.85
Macquarie SELL $5.60
Morgan Stanley HOLD $7.10
Consensus price target as at 24 May 2021 : NZ$8.01
Consensus price target a year ago : NZ$19.02, price target ranged from $13.50 to $22.00 which means that those who followed the negative view at that time saved themselves some serious money!
But of greater importance now is - who is going to be right in a year's time?
Move over A2 Milk (ASX:A2M), there’s a new company on the block
Attracting a bevy of celebrity investors, this newly listed company now boasts a market cap of around $13 billion.
A2 Milk acts an alternative for those who may have difficulty digesting standard cow’s milk. Without getting into the nitty-gritty details, the company’s milk still contains lactose. However, Oatly’s oat milk is completely dairy-free, lactose-free, and milk protein-free. Therefore, it is arguably an option for a wider audience of people with allergies or significant intolerances
https://www.fool.com.au/2021/05/25/m...-on-the-block/
wow huge competitor wont be long before we have oaty infant formula
"wow huge competitor wont be long before we have oaty infant formula"
Only if you want undernourished and unhealthy children
Oat milk is not really milk & is not ok for people with celiac disease or gluten intolerance & according to NHS def not suitable for babies under 1 year old & as Habits said unless heavily fortified lacks the proteins & nutrients children & anyone recovering from illness or medical treatments such as chemo or just needing a some extra protein to regain strength, which are needed & provided in natural milk.
While it may have a small niche market, milk from grass fed, GMO free dairy cows still hard to beat & once educated about the difference, don't think this much of a threat.
LOL - fearmongering at its best supported by no facts at all.
Lets face it ... the best nutrition for babies is their mothers breast milk ... no need for A1 or A2 or whatever cows milk. Older children and grown ups need a balanced diet, and cow's milk offers a range of vitamins and other nutrients to get there, however - it is clearly not the only option to compile a balanced diet. There are many people who don't drink milk and have still a healthy and balanced diet. There are as well people who drink milk and have an unhealthy diet.
Just check healthline:
https://www.healthline.com/health/fo...llatti,-MS,-RD
Quote:
“Milk is simply not necessary in the diet. Every nutrient in milk can be found in whole plant foods, and some nutrients needed for healthy bones, like vitamin K and manganese, are not in milk, but are in whole plant foods.
Oat milk, cow's milk, almond milk, goat's milk, whatever-you-like milk.
It's here, and it's growing volume.
I would be expecting any milk (dairy?) player to be in that market.
Just as I'd be expecting the meat processing industry to be churning out second or third generation vegan meat.
A bit like Coca Cola adding "plain" water to their "flavoured" water range.
Bull is being satirical. He/she doesn't actually believe this. Hook line and sinker mind you
noun
an opaque white fluid rich in fat and protein, secreted by female mammals
That is not from oats and almonds sorry. Similar to saying vegan sausage roll
@BP You jest knowing that you have a house cow out the back and not almond trees or fields of oats. Btw did you know the alternative 'milks' are not sustainable after all
UBS updated a buy price at $12.50, then sold its holdings at current price level. Who can explain this? Moral hazard or something else?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...828/346889.pdf
The tidal wave movement to plant based nutrition cannot be ignored. Oat, Soy, almond. You name it. There's a real movement behind it because vast and ever increasing numbers of people think its cool and think they're saving the planet. That it doesn't have the same nutritional values as cow's milk doesn't matter one iota to these people. Its all about the cool thing to do and the placebo effect...because they think its better and cool they feel it is better.
I doubt any of the analysts have a clue how growth will or will not resume with demand for ATM which basically renders all DCF "valuations" as nothing more than today's estimated value of a bunch of absolute guesswork about potential cash flows in the future. More concerning is I doubt management and directors have a clue either and accordingly we're all flying blind which sheets us back to the unalienable facts that do exist, that the birth rate is in decline, that domestic brands in China are gaining serious traction and momentum and that huge logistical issues with freight won't abate anytime soon or that freedom of international travel won't resume anytime soon.
My sense is that there is no dispute that the tide is still going out and stabilizing this ship and its market share will be a heck of a lot easier said than done, let alone trying to grow it down the track which even if achievable will come at an enormous sustained marketing cost.
The trend is your friend... for those not invested. Until the trend changes the risks appear to well and truly outweigh any apparent short term rewards. On the other hand once we get a clear trend change such as a break back up through the 100 day moving average (which is unlikely to happen anytime soon and may not happen until well into 2022 or even possibly 2023) this will have been de-risked enough so the potential rewards at least balance the risk.
Disc: Sitting on my paws with this one and keeping my powder dry until I am sure the carnage is over.
From the Fonterra market update today...
“Global demand for dairy, especially New Zealand dairy, is continuing to grow. China is leading the charge as its economy continues to recover strongly. Prompted by COVID-19, people are seeking the health benefits of milk and customers are wanting to secure their supply of New Zealand dairy products and ingredients."
Here's the full release.
That's good, because from Business Desk this morning:
NZ milk production isn't flat-lining or declining – yet
New Zealand’s milk production statistics in April certainly do not point to national supply flat-lining or declining, at least in the short-term.
Milk production was up 11.6% last month versus the prior April while season-to-date milk production was up 2.4%, figures from the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand show.
Here's a lot of info about plant based alternatives to dairy milk.
Basically dairy milk sets a high bar for human health with overwhelming advantages which plant based alternatives struggle to get anywhere near.
The alternative industry has aggressively tried to lower or diminish the considerable range of health benefits of dairy milk to enable them to compete.
Whilst acknowledging the environmental impact of dairy which our farmers are doing their best to mitigate, apart from the much higher health benefits of dairy milk, plant based alternatives like almond production have been a disaster for both bee colonies and water tables in places like California, and soy is produced mainly in mass monoculture operations with much of it being sprayed multiple times before harvest with glyphosphate based herbicides which are linked to cancer.
This from National Centre for Biotech Information, part of US National Library of Medicine.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7810394/
The other aspect is the environmental impact for the relative nutritional benefit. With milk, it is not like litre for litre it is the same nutritionally as alternatives (as well pointed out). It could be that have to consume 0.5x, 1x, 2x more of an alternate milk/juice to get the same nutritional benefit as cows milk - and have to consider this in terms of the environmental impact, and magnify the alternates impact accordingly.
Because of this, it could be that almond juice for example might have a worse environmental impact than cows milk.
Yeah, almonds.......10% of the water use in California, and each almond takes 12 litres to grow. Luckily there is only 25 almonds in a litre of almond juice.....;)
[Rant Over]
a2 might be banned
A Chinese Communist Party spokesman has urged New Zealand to "make the pie of co-operation bigger", amid a flurry of speculation in Beijing that Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta is growing cold on China
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...storm-comments
only way is for mahuta to acknowledge new zealand is not aeoteroa but it is new Xi land
Don't worry about A2, worry about the whole NZ economy!
The one area that miss the wily old fox Winston.
Could always be depended to head up to Beijing for a few cigars and whiskies.....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jac...ZZ4B6TZ7BOARE/
Cindy dampening the concerns.
Even the clueless one knows that China accounts for more than 35% of NZ exports.
england dumped nz years ago so cant see china not doing the same if it suits them. nz hasnt learnt about diversification
heres the china news
GT Voice: NZ needs to remain pragmatic to steer clear from unnecessary ‘storm
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224471.shtml
Export Milk Powder data ex Lyttleton as posted by Werdplaya on HC shows the imminent demise of ATM might yet be delayed.
Attachment 12548
Data roughly shows 20% vol increase FY21 v FY20 (with 2 months to go) and approx 50% up on same period last year.
That said, huge caution needed with any interpretation of these volume based figs as we don't know how they translate into ATM revenue. Indeed the naysayers will claim ATM is giving it away free just to get rid of unwanted stock.
OZ have had a poke in the eye for siding with Trump re origin of covid, coal, wheat, crayfish, wine
https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/poki...ragon/13318142
An interesting book "In the jaws of the dragon" by Ron Asher, How china is taking over NZ, with the welcome mat laid by John Key
ATM and all other companies must diversify their markets
Yawn - from Oz, the country which shafts NZ every opportunity it gets.
From Air NZ to Telecom, from removing NZers entitlements in Oz when they move there to study or work, from dumping hardened Ozzie brought up criminals to NZ!
Greetings from the big bully (who does not like to be bullied by a bigger one) - ENJOY, Kiwi suckers !!!!
Only in NZ would you get anyone taking note of what the Ozzie bully says!
Haha - not much point you posting that self contradicting infor then without looking closely at what happened with ATM?
Then, there’s Fonterra’ s announcement today of buoyant conditions for whole milk powder exports to China. Explains where the 50% increase came from.
SP is a bit bouncy - isn't it ? ;)
Any bets on where to from here ? ;)
daily bollingers opened up for a move down to 4.50
ATM strictly for traders imo until such time as the company releases its strategy reset program.
Company has no credibility and analysts/brokers with a positive bias out there even less so after blindly following the company’s earnings guidance, swallowing the BS whole and losing clients’ big money.
Analysts/brokers with a negative bias currently have the ascendency so sp is going to track closer to their valuations and recommendations.
Too many out there still with their rose tinted glasses looking at the rear view mirror and imagining ATM going back to $20+.
Bull, I assume you mean $USD? hehehe
Interested to see Hamilton Hindin Greene saying they were seeing bargain hunters moving in towards end of last week.
Trickle could become a flood at first sign of any good news & the possibility of a quick 20 -25% gain, but pure speculation on my part.
Still at some point it will be or have been oversold.
There will most likely be a huge fifth downgrade when the strategy review and reset is announced - whenever that is.
So traders are best to play the game tight & short. There’s money to be made from the rose tinted glass wearers with their eyes firmly fixed on the rear windscreen mirror!
Do traders generally close their position at end of the week?y
Haha - well said!
I have to say that in all my years of interaction with all kinds of market players, I have met very very few consistently successful traders.
The successful ones were very disciplined with tight trading limits and then, figured out that they were actually better off just investing in sound long term growth stocks! Less stress and more gains.
Then there are those who enjoy trading but that’s a different story altogether. There’s an 85 years old trader I know who trade everyday, using options(!) and rather involved strategies, to keep his mind sharp. His private company is one of NZ’s biggest rural property owners.
But the markets need traders - otherwise, there’s bugger all excitement & volatilities which we know, create opportunities!
Milk value train
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/the...a-alan-bollard
"Continuing failure to extract value from our exports. (For an account of how Singapore makes more money from our dairy powder than we do, see the NZ PECC Dairy Value Chain report!)"
https://www.pecc.org/publications/54...-chains-report
From Fonterra's market quarterly:
China - "With the exception of infant formula, increased volumes were observed across all other product categories"
347294.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com)
a2 about to be sued .... wait for other suitors to appear as well i reckon they all want some of a2 cash pile. no good for the company be tied up in law suits for ever now.
Media reporting regarding potential class action
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/373089
Slater and Gordon investigates possible a2 Milk class action
Based on its investigations to date, Slater and Gordon wrote in an email to investors viewed by The Australian Financial Review that shareholders who had purchased stock on both the ASX and NZX between August 19, 2020 and May 7, 2021 may have basis for a claim
https://www.afr.com/companies/manufa...0210527-p57vlj
There will be a few sleepless nights ahead for the amateurish directors & managers who sold shares in August 2020
Media reporting regarding potential class action
The a2 Milk Company (“the Company”) is aware of media reporting concerning a potential class action against the Company that is apparently being investigated by Slater & Gordon Lawyers. The Company is not aware of any legal proceeding having been filed at this time. The Company believes that it has complied with all applicable disclosure obligations and denies any claim to the contrary. The Company will respond further if and when any legal proceedings are commenced.
The discovery process will be very interesting if a class action is filed.
When & what did the company directors & managers know when they sold shares and if their defence is that they did not know, why not.
Many billions of dollars at stake and ATM’s cash reserves may not be enough?
Short term, forget about a takeover as no acquirer wants to be involved in a class court action.
Big question for NZ traders - do they bail before ASX opens or wait for the reaction of the Aussie big hitters?
I know what I will be doing if I have ATM shares which I don’t.
19 August 2020 Results presentation with the very interesting title "Building From Strength" I think this legal action will hinge upon whether the directors painted a disingenuous picture of the outlook (including the title of the presentation) just before they dumped vast numbers of shares. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...233/328662.pdf Results presentation
Annual Report also very boldly titled Building from STRENGTH http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...216/328658.pdf
This could involve as Balance has quite rightly suggested, an interesting discovery process of internal emails and communications about who knew what and said what to whom before quite a number of insiders sold huge amounts of shares.
I may have missed the point somewhere but surely in any class action the shareholders - ultimately - are taking action against themselves. Unless of course they have already bailed. In reality a class action doesn’t recover any money from anyone other than the directors and that in the larger scheme of things won’t even pay the legal fees. Or have I missed something?
Class action talk obviously just a bit of mischief from the AFR
Wait for Street Talk to mention an impending takeover ...that be exciting
Remember the Vocus class action.
We got paid out a reasonable amount.
Why has it taken S&G this long to file...potential tactic by funds to accumulate? Who knows???
Tightening across E-Commerce platforms now evident. Marketing looks to have ramped up, and pricing now getting up to levels mentioned in the call. Have some screenshots and images for those interested. PM me
They were quite upbeat in that presentation. However they did outline the uncertainty in their section on outlook. Given covid, it will be interesting to see how much reliance could be placed on a forecast with a covid caveat.
From the report:
“OutlookFY21
• Globally, there continues to be uncertainty resulting from COVID-19, and the potential for moderation of economic activity. This could impact consumer behaviour in our core markets, as well as participants within the supply chain, most notably in China
• Notwithstanding these uncertainties, overall for FY21, we anticipate continued strong revenue growth supported by our continued investment in marketing and organisational capability”
Actually the Bellamys Class Action was successful.
https://www.slatergordon.com.au/clas...tions/bellamys
Under the proposed agreement, Bellamy’s will pay a total of $49.7 million, inclusive of interest and costs, to settle the claims of group members in the McKay Class Action and the related proceeding, the Basil Class Action, brought against the company in 2017.
Those who bought off the directors & managers in August after the company’s bullish comments - a good prima-facie case that they were misled.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...estors-reports
I think its going to come down to what was the main thrust of what they had to say. For what its worth i thought they had a heck of a lot to say about
BUILDING FROM STRENGTH usually in huge bolded and capital font and a very modest amount of things to say about Covid risks in standard sized font without capitals. I think you'll get my point when you read this post...if you say things in massive font there is a clear argument to say the intention behind that was to "color" or "flavor" or "cast" the annual report and presentation materials in a very positive way.
If it turns out under discovery that there were any internal communications to the contrary just before insiders sold huge volumes of shares, (very shortly after making these bullish statements), just nine days later from memory, then given the bullish overall nature of the reports I think there's a prima facie case to answer.
So how many are contemplating to join the class action suit against ATM ?
Need to be eligible as per the guidelines .
What is the motivation for insiders selling?
Lots of things during the period needed to be reviewed regards to that forecast report.
- meeting minutes
- communication records with corporate daigou, retail daigou during the period
- Company marketing strategy changes if any during the period, marketing expense or any promotion
- Any account payable & receivable, cash flow changes in terms of period, policy or something else during the period, which may be not compliance with long term pattern.
- The original spreadsheet or work of forecast numbers in the report , how many drafts they had, any significant changes from draft to the final one, who authorized for the change.
- Any anonymous current or ex-staff leak some info?
I can certainly think of one former prominent poster on here that was buying around the time the insiders were selling down and has since suffered huge losses.
I had a look at the share price action between the day before the FY20 announcement (18/8/2020) and when the insiders sold and what makes this case interesting is that the market reached a very clear peak the day before the announcement on 18/8/2020 and never recovered those heights despite the relatively bullish outlook statement. Its hard to make a case that the bullish outlook statement had any material positive impact on the share price either on the day of the announcement or in the near term thereafter. That said it's interesting to note that Peter Nathan became eligible for the issuance of 800,000 shares as a result of exercising options on 19/08/2020 at 63 cents and then on 24/08, 25/08 and 26/08/2020 almost immediately sold almost all of them. Many other insiders also sold substantial stakes at that time.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358806 so the question has to be asked, if the outlook commentary wasn't stated to be so robust would the shares have still been ~ $20 ?
Anyway...good luck to shareholders joining this class action. It reminds me of the sales job done on Feltex shareholders when that was floated and look how long that went through the courts and the poor result for shareholders ! More than 13 years and no satisfaction ! https://www.simpsongrierson.com/arti...ally-at-an-end
Something stinks to high heavens and it certainly is not the expired infant formula!
Feltex - key different between ATM & Feltex is that ATM is principally owned by institutional shareholders with deep pockets whiles Feltex was owned by almost all retail shareholders save around 10% by institutions.
Sounds like some shareholders initiated the investigation by S&G?
"According to the report in the AFR, Slater and Gordon is investigating a possible class action claim on behalf of investors who bought shares over a nine-month period between 19 August 2020 and 7 May 7 2021.
During this time, the infant formula company posted four downgrades, leading to a bitterly disappointing 62% decline in its share price. Also occurring during these dates and before the downgrades began were a series of insider sales by executives comprising millions of dollars’ worth of a2 Milk shares.
The report reveals that Slater and Gordon alleges a2 Milk may have engaged in misleading or deceptive conduct in breach of the Corporations Act. It may also have possibly breached continuous disclosure rules.
The law firm stated: “There may be basis to allege that by no later than August 19, 2020, a2 Milk was or ought to have been aware the full-year 2021 guidance did not adequately take into account a number of factors which would impact the company’s financial performance.”
“Earlier last year, the company seemed to be talking about COVID-related impacts that have affected its business. But when there was this fourth downgrade, that started revealing information about more systemic and structural problems that seem to exist in the business, which triggered us to go back and look through not only the most recent downgrade but what’s happened over the last nine months.”“
“Our investigation is considering whether or not all of the information that’s been dripped out by the company over the last nine months was actually not in the company in August when they gave that initial full-year guidance,” it added.
Won't go anywhere IMHO. Covid put a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts. Would be an easy out for management.
Do Slater and Gordon work on a no win, no fee contingency basis where they get a third of any winnings ?
A multi billion dollar law suit might be enough to put the fear of God into the directors and solicit a settlement offer in the tens of millions ?
Directors will want to settle if they have any concerns about the discovery process unearthing untoward behaviour when they sold their shares, or gross incompetence & mismanagement.
When you think about it, it is either one or the other but could be both.
ATM is the ideal company for G&S to take a class action against - $500m in the bank to pay for damages.
https://www.slatergordon.com.au/class-actions
Fees
Our Class Action cases are usually run on a No Win - No Fee* arrangement. Slater and Gordon, or a litigation funder, usually bear the costs and the risks associated with running the case.
Interesting development, hope their premiums are paid up for PI, PL, D&O. Doubt it’ll get legs but an interesting sideshow.
Comments from S&G :
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/rural...s-reports.html
Very much class action modus operandi.
Start building up a case, leak to the media and get others to join the class action and hopefully, whistle blowers to provide information (if any).
On Monday, law firm Slater and Gordon confirmed to Newshub a number of shareholders had "indicated their interest in potential proceedings" against the company, though "no proceedings have yet been filed".
Slater and Gordon class actions principal lawyer Kaitlin Ferris said the company expects more investors will continue to come forward as the investigation is completed.
"A2 Milk gave market guidance in August 2020 which promised strong growth in revenue – subsequently, the company issued four downgrades to revenue and EBITDA margin guidance," Ferris said.
"Slater and Gordon is investigating whether the information ultimately released by A2 is likely to have been known to the company at an earlier stage, and therefore whether A2 breached its obligations to keep investors informed of material information in a timely manner."
Ferris said the law firm expected to have reached a view about whether there is sufficient basis for a claim to be made in the coming weeks.
As far as I can tell, the class action is only for Aussie investors.
Certainly looks like an interesting Rat's nest for the investigating
May well be something a bit more smelly lurking
After all, an outfit this size doesn't throw it's records & papers into a large box and turf it across
the Accountants counter every 6 or 12 months..
Probably deserving of a bit of delving back into the last CEO's reign too .. ;)
A CEO doesn't normally liquidate their allocated parcels in a large bundle, shortly before running off elsewhere..
Hopefully any potential action will be opened up for all eligible shareholders ..
China to the rescue .....
China allows couples to have three children https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-57303592