Hey Value ….. several analysts use a thing called Annuity Earnings to assess RV values
Seems to be a de facto DCF
Any idea how they ‘calculate’ this?
Printable View
Then you are misinterpreting what I am saying.
I have said it was undervalued for quite some time, if the property market looked like improving, but the drivers of change in sentiment wasn't going to be the business model, or that suddenly the market has a light bulb moment.
It was going to be about the macro environment and that trigger, which could be a false start but I doubt it, was Adrian Orr's recent statement on the outlook for interest rates.
So, I suppose for those who ignore the macro, then yes they got lucky. Those who could see that the current cycle is coming to an end and bought on that basis, well done.
The same could be said for those who sold after the Covid sugar rush & those who held even though we were entering a very sharp increase in interest rates and you didn't have to predict that, Adrian Orr told us as much, remember he borrowed the phrase, go hard, go early.
So I totally agree re your first statement of unsold stock. But what if Orr had said rates needed to go back up? Anyway we are in agreement it's the macro driving change in sentiment and market value.
I think of risk in terms of the likelihood of permanent loss of capital, or long run underperformance. So no one metric per se, but a combination of factors that give me a general idea of the level of risk.
Volatility in the downward direction is not a permanent loss of capital.
So much money coming from Arvida.....!
You’ve changed your tune pretty quickly from dog stock, dog stock
Always my dog stock..lol
(X-)Men's best friend?
Always ... anything make money...