Ockdow[QUOTE=dreamcatcher;1059818]Waterford Retirement at Hobsonville Point in lockdown.
How do you know this? I live there, no news from the village or from management of any covid.
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Ockdow[QUOTE=dreamcatcher;1059818]Waterford Retirement at Hobsonville Point in lockdown.
How do you know this? I live there, no news from the village or from management of any covid.
Quite a good advert :
The Helier
Luxury you desire, care you deserve. Discover boutique personalised Care, tailored to you.
And btw, do not ask for discount as refusal to do so may offend.
boys chasing new lows , heed the sailors call. lol
t
Hardly, they have better things to do than go back and forth on a thread going over the same ****e, different day. You should have understood that or maybe you just don't get that psychology. Hardly you fault as your only a short term trader glued to twelve screens..Go figure
There is no tmrw.... everyday is today...52c...lol
Conversely do you have evidence it isn't / wasn't in lockdown? I don't know for that particular location. I'm sure you could call them to confirm it. Our local one does have sporadic lockdowns. Covid and flu can both trigger it. It's not that unusual. Last one here that was media reported was November 2023. Probably less interest in them being reported widely in the media these days so wouldn't surprise me if there has been other more recent ones.
I bet none of them are reported now. Covid. Gastro. All treated the same. Normal life.
superfluous to requirement
Regardless of your friends condition there is no lockdown which is the assertion you made. Please check for yourself(and anyone else) Waterford ph. no. Is 905 4632. It is important for it to be confirmed the correct fact.
Ocr predicted to be cut to 5.25% this coming August!!!
Sure retirement stocks are at the button now!
It looks like a nice village. I have looked at its information online on the Oceania site and Village Guide. It has independent living units at a good location at Hobsonville. There are no care units or facilities. I don’t want to bother the village with an annoying call.
Perhaps the original poster was mistaken as to the facility where his friend’s wife is located? From my experience several years ago the rest homes and hospitals have more stringent Covid lockdowns than the retirement village itself.
https://www.villageguide.co.nz/retir...rement-village
What's happening? OCA already high on the list of the Top 5 Gainers on the NZX today. RYM there too. A rerate is underway!
The latest political Poll from July shows Luxon/National making ground, and that's before the Greens Tana fiasco. Methinks the mood of the nation is changing as the coalition moves along the implementation spectrum, and with the rising likelihood of interest rate cuts.
Are you in yet bull?
Button already passed....so.... August ocr meeting and next week CPI report will confirm ... whether interest cut is coming
i mentioned on a thread i was busy buying up income plays for div's and cap gain on the assumpton int rates would be falling.
RV's dont meet my criteria as there is no property market turnaround on the horizon. but good luck to holders.
one day i might change my mind lol
Lol..what a dog sheet...just to get people excited....a dog 💩...is forever 💩
Very strong day for listed RV stocks. It certainly feels like the bottom is in.
US CPI is showing increasing risks of entering deflation with the last 3 MoM prints being 0.3%, 0% and now -0.1%... Certainly not an inflationary trend.
Reserve banks have once again found themselves caught off side. They've been too reluctant to read the room which ultimately means they'll again have to act more aggressively than necessary.
Our own bank is particularly embarrassing with such an extreme flip fop. I expect a cut in August with a total of 75bps trimmed before year end.
The valuations these businesses trade at is ridiculous and we don't need a hot property market to get significant gains from here. Just an improvement in sentiment and rationale, I suspect the turning of the interest rate cycle will likely to be that catalyst.
Strap in people, my bags are packed across the sector.
UP THE WAHS!
Absolutely agree, well said imo. Forbar's report is also insightful, (albeit a hard read), focusing on how RV's need to rejig the reporting to demonstrate how they're returning on investment to shareholders.
I like the idea of separately reporting development from accomodations operations, pretty much what the REITS have done, with some like Stride even setting up two reporting entities to make the distinction. In any event they call out, via various valuation methods, the RV's are grossly undervalued by market cap.
It was also encouraging to see Forbar make numerous mentions of how the zero interest residents uncallable ORA 'loans' could be accounted for, versus the longer dated DMF returns, sales and re-sales. Sitting on the balance sheet as a pure liability, versus the value creation it provides for asset growth and future cashflows, is lost in current reporting conventions.
But back to the economy, I've been here a few times, not just with OCA, but whole sectors being hammered by the economic settings, '86-7, dot bomb, GFC, Covid ... these are times that while painful on a day to day basis are the catalyst for a setup for outperformance prosperity in equities. It's these times that we are thankful for accumulating cash and creating the opportunity to pile into a recovery.
Some call that value investing. My truck was backed up big time loading up on a few shares this week, OCA included. It might be a bit wobbly until interest rates are actually cut, but the scene is being set for an RV sector recovery.
Oceania shares had a good week ending up 1 cent at 55 cents even though at one point it looked like ‘this is our year’ came in a few hours of super excitment. Fans were buoyed by a ‘RB pivot’ and the circulation of an analyst ‘dog sheet’ of a report about Ryman which basically said the market just doesn’t understand RVs but once it does riches will flow. This paper was raved about by fans - some became bigger fans and it seems Oceania got a lot of new fans. Yes they say with even more fervour ‘this is our year’. GO OCEANIA YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.
No game for the Warriors this weekend as they have the bye. How the NRL works this gives them points (for not losing lol) and as such they’ll probably move up the points table. Fans spent early part of week lamenting how unfair the refs have been and (a bit like it is for Oceania) working against them. However the quiet week gave them time to refresh their fandom and they seem ever more convinced that ‘this is our year’ UP THE WAHS
Casual observer is bemused that for both poor performace is not their fault and it’s thevref and market not understanding them. However things were positive for both and the fans could be right about ‘this is our year’. Maybe times have changed but the casual Observer can’t help but think the exuberance might be short lived. No
Damn, can't even take some of the gains and back the Warriors this weekend.
Maybe a bit than a ‘dog sheet’ but it succeeded in getting punters excited….a bit like their effort in promoting Radius a week orcos ago.
But
I haven’t read the full report yet but there apparently is a lot more to it than what was posted here.
I gather it says that for Ryman to get that 300% gain there are many ‘they need to do this’ and ‘if this happens’ etc etc
Let’s see how it pans out eh
I’m all for Forbar touting RV to be clearer in their reporting and ‘demonstrating’ how they create value.
A great opportunity for Oceania to be leaders and go down that path. Even more so seeing they have a new CEO starting soon. ..but I fear that might be a step too far for such an entrenched Board. I reckon they’d need a new CFO as the incumbent is even more entrenched in the Oceania ways of doing things and hard to see her taking a new ‘modern’ approach to financial reporting.
Could be interesting
Another couple of interesting points mentioned seemed similar to what someone else has talked about on this thread not all that long ago (not here currently), comments wrt development debt being deducted from assets for nta calc, and how sales cash flow should be considered (neither operating or financing, but rather investing).
Maybe not as outlandish as some were saying after all?
Worked just fine on my laptop.Good article.
Thanks for posting it dubya.
Oh dear ‘it’s not coming home’ for England as they lose Euro Final
One commentator said. -
This is a great England team, probably the best of my adult life in terms of the quality of the individual players in its spine. At the moment the whole is significantly less than the sum of the parts, but our time will come. Quality wins in the end
Thought he was referring to Oceania at first
Should see the SP test 60c this week...
REINZ property data for June …pretty bad
Sales volumes are terrible …after looking good and improving for best part of last 12 months this happens The total number of properties sold in New Zealand decreased by 25.6% year-on-year, from 5,854 to 4,356,
Probably a guide to how Oceania volumes are going ….little wonder they seem to be promoting pretty heavily
And property prices were flat
If Brent still around he might have to refer to a weak property market
Spain were the better team and definitely had the harder route to the final. They beat Germany, France and Italy before beating England,
Today's property stats are a stark reminder about how tough the current market is out there. That's why I think that the interest shown in recent days in retirement stocks will run out of puff pretty quickly.
Don't U see the article??? When the oldies need to go to the rest home....they will need to go ..no matter whether the property market is down or not
Maybe so X-men ….in some cases that’s probably due
But why do Oceania and others ‘blame’ a sluggish property market for sales not meeting expectations?
And that’s why even though have an abundance of units to see new sales numbers are currently a lot less than they were 3 to 4 years ago.
The correlation to REINZ 'property' sales data is over stated imo, for one thing it doesn't include RV sales. Sure there's an effect on people needing to sell their home in order to buy an ORA, that's is acknowledged, but the effect on RV ORA sales is more muted than the REINZ data implies.
Scott Scouller from Summerset said this a couple of weeks ago, I think it's a fair reflection of the market conditions vs RV sales:
"2Q24 METRICS – SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS AND HY PROFIT GUIDANCEThe wider property market in NZ has been softer than anticipated to start 2024, restrained by high interest rates, weak consumer confidence and cost of living pressures.Despite these conditions, Summerset Group reported 333 sales for the quarter ending 30 June 2024, comprising 156 new sales and 177 resales.Total sales for the first half of the year were the highest first half the company has recorded, with resales being particularly strong, resale pricing was up 0.3%. Sales for the six months to 30 June were the second highest ever behind 2H23.Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said the result was pleasing. “Settlements were strong for the second quarter of the year, up 31% on the first quarter and up 22% year-on-year.“Our residents’ motivation to buy continues to be driven by life events, such as their health or desire for more community, these factors don’t change in a constrained economy. While our prospective residents are still highly motivated the sluggish property market is restricting them from selling their home as quickly as they would like which is slowing some moves to our villages.“In spite of this it’s been very pleasing that Summerset has now achieved total sales volumes of 1,200 units over the past 12 months against challenging market conditions.”"
Effect yes, direct correlation to RV sales, no. 'Time to sell' is the effect.
It may be true that there is some element of people delaying their move into retirement villages due to the soft general housing market right now. But I think it is worth noting that for most potential ORA purchasers this effect will be a delay rather than a cancellation of plans. what this means to the RV operator is that on average those people will occupy their retirement unit for less time in total - hence for any given client the actual return to the village operator is actually pretty much unaffected. Except that the RV operator actually carries less opex in relation to each of those clients (due to their shorter overall stay)
ie the delayed sales will lead to a shorter average occupation time and hence a faster turnover of units.
Appreciate that ORA sales are not included …. Private sales, estate transfers etc etc aren’t included as well. Discussed this with Maverick a few months back and we both agreed that irrespective whether you use Stats NZ data (Maverick uses) or REINZ data property sales trends (ie growth or otherwise) gives a pretty good indicator how RV sales are going. Good enough for me anyway.
Interest.co.nz headline today on the REINZ data was Housing sales crashed to GFC levels in June
Jeez hope Oceania and the other RV sales don’t crash over the next few months
Inflation...high interest rate environment... recession ...
Wed CPI report is due soon...
Its winter. Housing market is already dire and winter is traditionally a slow period anyway so who cares. Its all about sentiment going forward.
Don't need a boom but a functioning property market is all we need. Quite a few private development sites in my area that have been on ice for 18-24 months are now well underway.
This one is flying up and they aren't even marketing it properly just yet:
https://www.faisandier.group/projects/342-waiwhetu-road
They must have confidence in their timing, they kicked off about 3 months or so ago.
They look good Ben
How much do you think they'll be going for?
They really know the value of compounding too :)
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid...35311618162094
Interesting stats in this article.
Link to article in the Herald on house listings.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...AWTPQNCVHOV7U/
Seasonally adjusted median price movements, selected regions:
Auckland: Up 2.4% from May, up 4.8% from June 2023
Waikato: Down 1.3% from May, down 2.3% from June 2023
Bay of Plenty: Down 4.3% from May, down 6% from June 2023
Wellington: Up 0.8% from May, up 2% from June 2023
Canterbury: Up 1.6% from May, up 5% from June 2023
Otago: Down 5.3% from May, down 3.8% from June 2023
They were marketed back in May 2021, there are 24 units mostly town houses and 4x duplex (8 units). They had sold 2x but now are all showing available. I suspect the buyers were released via sunset clauses.
The top dog 4 beddy 2.5 bath 2x carpark was $1.3m and the most basic 2 bed, 1 bath 1x carpark was 899k. I am thinking they will pull around 1m for a 4 bed so perhaps 600k-650 for the 2 bed?
I'm keen to see what they fetch as I'm across the road with standalone 3 bed, 2.5 bath 1x internal garage stand alones (x2) that I built in 2022.
A Baa_Baa recent post (when we discussing whether there was a correlation between REINZ sales volumes and SUM sales) he put up something Scott Scoullar of SUM said -
The wider property market in NZ has been softer than anticipated to start 2024, restrained by high interest rates, weak consumer confidence and cost of living pressures.Despite these conditions, Summerset Group reported 333 sales for the quarter ending 30 June 2024,
What Scott was really saying was ‘Our sales volumes generally follow overall property market trends but although the market was softer than we anticipated in the first half of this year we had strong sales ….demonstrating our offering is well respected by prospective residents’
Interesting chart showing half yearly growth v pcp for both REINZ and SUM sales volumes
SR: OCA has massive amounts of free funding from customers.
Daytr, Balance and other ‘experts’: No it doesn't, there is nothing to see here it’s not free money. SR is wrong. The float concept is totally wrong.
Forsyth Barr: ‘Liabilities: Approximately 50% of liabilities consist of occupational advances, an unusual liability. These advances are financial in nature yet do not incur interest’.
How should we think of a liability that is perpetual and non-interest-bearing?
At the core of the aged care business model is occupational advances that provide the funding. As discussed above under the cash flow section, these can be thought of as some combination of pre-paid rent and lending.
'From a balance sheet perspective it is more straightforward; 100% of occupational advances are a liability. But it is an odd liability. With a going concern assumption it will never be repaid and carries no interest'.
'The three core value drivers, making up >95% of ‘revenues’ and comfortably >100% of earnings of a stable village, relate to the non-cash metrics of Deferred Management Fees (DMF), the free funding from residents'.
‘We expect that RYM will deliver a ~+4% return on existing assets (excluding the impact of free funding from ORAs)’
SR: I have never seen another industry remotely like it in terms of the amount of interest free funds in relation to equity capital or total assets.
Daytr, Balance and other ‘experts’: Rubbish, it’s nothing special, every industry is like this.
Forsyth Barr: ‘No asset heavy industry that we are aware of comes close to being able to deliver this level of self-funded growth’.
SR: Most of the liabilities are in fact assets and should not be subtracted out in the NTA calculator but instead added.
Daytr, Balance and other ‘experts’: Our heads are exploding, this is so far beyond our level of comprehension SR is wrong SR is wrong 4 legs good two legs badddd.
Forsyth Barr: A less extreme position is to look at the time to maturity of the specific occupational advances currently on the books, ~three to four years, and discount it by cost of debt. This approach would trim occupational advances by ~20%. This conservative approach would add a meaningful 25% to 30% (~+NZ$1.70 per share) to RYM's net tangible assets.
Daytr, Balance and other ‘experts’: SR if you why don’t any of the analysts see it the way you see it, surely if you are correct they would see it the same way.
Forsyth Barr: We do.
Deleted … some punters think it was a bad post
Can't give you more rep sorry VNZ
So the analysts that apparently are idiots in SailorBoy's eyes are actually on to it, as long as they support his / your thesis.
Re the 'loans' & up front rent, I have said all along as long as you don't see the ORAs as sales, yet the company continually reports sales numbers, then call them what you like.
How may times I see posters talk about sales margins, DMF, free loans & rent up front. I mean how many times can you double count?
Re the float, I agreed with SailorBoy on this from day one, I just don't think it's worth what he thinks it is.
So if you want to paraphrase posters or interpret their views, please do the courtesy of getting it right.
Your last statement doesn't even may sense. Too excited to get this out, look Forsyth Barr agree with us! Wet pants... Oh but how to explain that people paid to analyze rather than invest for themselves are idiots. In SailorBoy's words and I paraphrase, "if they were any good they would be investing for themselves."
Funny I don't agree with that blanket notion, some analysts are good, some are not.
You also failed to mention I had a positive target of 99c on OCA & was even more favorable to RYM, I just didn't have lunatic valuations on either.
Heads up that my post above this morning came from SailorRob.
Both SR and I were in agreement that the report was actually very poorly written, just that it touches on the key points that we have been saying for years.
IMO the analyst that wrote that report used inspiration from SailorRob's posts.
Can you link the post where someone double counts? I think Baa_Baa made a post that could be wrongly interpreted as a double count but that's it, just poorly worded. Congrats, in pointing out a typo you also made a typo... 'may sense'.
Whether the analysts agree with some of the posts here or not is irrelevant to the investment thesis. Graham said it best “The stock investor is neither right or wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.” The point of the above post is not to say "hey look analysts agree, so we are right", it's to say you were wrong for using the argument that an analyst hasn't made these arguments and therefore what we wrote was wrong (appeal to authority?).
I don't have predictive abilities in predicting interest rates, neither does the RBNZ, Buffett or any of the worlds greatest investors. So nor do you, if you did you'd be wealthy beyond imagine. Or just continue kidding yourself, I don't care.
CPI is at 3.3%...ocr cut is imminent this coming August 2024
I'm not wasting my time going through old posts for something that has already been discussed to death. That's something SailorBoy might do and bore everyone shirtless.
What I did say is that the market doesn't agree with you.
The double counting is everywhere. DMF, up front rent, free loans, float, sales, resales.
ForBar hasn't been proven right yet and without a turn in the property market its all moot anyway., not that you would recognize that.
If the model is so great and the macro doesn't matter, why is OCA & RYM trimming back their development model?
Why have they cut dividends?
Why have they sold off undeveloped land parcels?
Why have they replaced their CEOs?
Why in OCA's case is all their DMF being given back in subsidizing the day to day running of the villages?
Their costs have blown out in recent years and not kept pace with fees. RYM is facing a similar issue.
It's because in a favorable macro environment of low interest rates and a rising property market it's easy to lever and make money hand over fist.
Not so much when the macro environment is the opposite, now that macro environment might be changing slowly and it's what I predicted pretty much re interest rates and that the housing market is ahead of the wider economy. I.e. the wider economy will take longer than the housing market to recover, things are likely to look up for the RVs as the SP is starting to reflect.
$100 bet?? I would say .25 cut
When in August? It was a tongue in cheek comment though, as one poster on here doesn't even look out the window to see if there is rain coming.
I wouldn't bet against it,
I predicted some time ago it would be the first half of the year, so I got that a little wrong, although the commercial banks had already started dropping rates in that period.
Nice post ValueNZ - I can't give you any rep given I have to spread it around. Nice to see analysts are finally getting "it".
Something else to ponder about ORAs:
Quote:
How should we think of a liability that is perpetual and non-interest-bearing? [snip] If RYM were to sell the right to the net cash flow from its current occupational advances (excluding revaluation gains which RYM is accounting for elsewhere), a buyer would have to wait until the end of useful life of the unit that the occupational advance is backing to receive the cash flow. With 30 years and a 7% cost of debt, that would suggest a haircut of close to 90%.
grabbed another parcel today, good signs there now. Not quite the bottom but close enough.
Share price be over 60 by tomorrow
70c...next 17th August 2024...ocr announcement...0.25% cut
superfluous to requirement
So close but so far. You will get there one day!
superfluous to requirement
superfluous to requirement
Your posts are always good and most welcome here Cupsy.
It's a poorly worded article as a whole but what the analysts are trying to say is that given the ORA effectively does not have to be repaid for 30 years and there is no interest on it during that time, then the discounted value of the ORA today is around 10% of the current book value when you consider the time value of money. The ORA is classified as a debt according to IFRS accounting rules, but the FB analysis says that an ORA is similar to a long dated 'account payable'. In summation, FB are saying IFRS accounting throws up some anomalies for RVs. In addition, FB stated the RV assets are unlikely to be overstated, but the liabilities certainly are overstated.
superfluous to requirement
superfluous to requirement
Agree Ferg about the ‘poorly worded’ view
I understand the extract posted here is from a much fuller report.
In my opinion that extract is not how FB analysts usually write / comment …..to the extent it just does not seem to be there doing.
A couple of posters have mentioned was it AÍ generated?
So I have asked FB (after outlining what I think) ‘ …do any of your analysts use AÍ to generate all or part of your company reports?’
Be interesting if there is a response
Disc: not a FB client or have I read that full RYM report (just the extract posted here)