Actually the Christchurch East by-election is very important, it shows that the Conservatives can easily score 5% of the NZ vote at the next election....which means that Labour-Greens will be sh*t out luck in hoping to form a coalition....
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Actually the Christchurch East by-election is very important, it shows that the Conservatives can easily score 5% of the NZ vote at the next election....which means that Labour-Greens will be sh*t out luck in hoping to form a coalition....
They will make it in to Parliament with ease MVT. If not through +5%n then through Craig winning a seat in Auckland or them standing a respected Pacific Islander in South Auckland somewhere !
My prediction is that the Green/Labour coalition will have NO friends to form a Government with next year as Winston First will be wiped out by the Conservatives. But they may have Hone, what a friend that would be ! National will have several to choose from, ACT, Dunne and the Conservatives ! Some may well be one MP parties but will be enough to get across the line.
Maori Party will be dead or irrelevant !
That's right and with the Green Party self imploding before our very eyes the Conservatives could even find that they get more votes than the Greens. If I had to call it now, I would say that would not happen, but that is now.
Personally, I think it would be far smarter to have a high priority leader from our biggest population base than an Australian telling NZ Greenies what to do. There is enough Aussies Kiwi bashing already. Do I think that will happen, nope, but either way it will hurt Green votes.
Here's the latest: 'Greens self imploding'.
Cuzzie - I think your self imploding call is wrong. Hay is just one disgrunted ex list candidate and anyone within their party with any sense will ignore him.
My prediction is Greens will still get their 10-15%.
Conservatives will struggle to get 5% but may just get there but more likely will win a seat. Too early to tell as need to see how they campaign and what press they get - I think the recent press has actually helped them.
Dunne - not sure if he will make it. He probably will (if his electorate are sensible) as he creates a favourable overhang for National (he gets a seat but with no party vote).
Act - is serious trouble. I am not sure how they will get in. We find out today but Banks trial will be next year. It needs a complete re-invention. And without their party vote bringing more than one, winning a seat isn't that important unless their party vote drops to give another favourable overhang.
Re Labour vs National - I have no idea. If you can get over Cunliffe (personally I think he is 10x as slimy as Key), he will be much better competition for Key in the debates.
Early call for sure Harvey only time will tell. Lets hope they keep up the infighting. National has got one safe leader over a period of many years, Labour have to go back to control freak Helen Clark to say the that and the Greens need two Leaders at the same time to function (special needs right there), plus an aspiring leader within their ranks who has now been told because he has an aspiration to be leader, can not only go for the co-leadership but wont be allowed to contest with the Green party ever again. Who would vote for these clowns? D.Heads that's who. Fortunately for the Greens, NZ is not in short supple of such people. Maybe the Conservatives should give Mr Hay a chance with them.
Harvey I think the Greens are in self-implode mood right now and will need to get smarter fairly fast to stop the rot.
National being the pros and Labour the hand brake on progress & kings of big spending for the needy, I think the pros would be quite happy to partner up with the Conservatives rather than a bunch of big spending hand brake greenhorn kings. Well we are talking Labour, let me re-phrase that ...bunch of big spending hand brake greenhorn queens.
The good news from this National Govt. just keeps on rolling in. Terms of trade are now at a 40-year high. That would be rolling back to the good old days of 73. Here's the link/ Terms of trade at 40-year high. Things just look so rosy at the moment and what with the new East Coast Oil Fields and new Taranaki fields coming into play early next year, it can only get better.
Cuzzie, does one month make such a big difference? This chart is all over the place.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-...lance-of-trade
Who is talking G.B or China? That's your story belgarion and you can talk all you like about that. I'm talking NZ, so try quoting that. NZ is doing great, unemployment is down, stronger dairy export prices have driven New Zealand's terms of trade to their highest point since 1973, NZ's merchandise terms of trade rose 7.5 per cent in the September quarter with export prices rising more than import prices, dairy export prices helped lift the terms of trade to their highest level since 1973, in the latest quarter the price of exported goods rose 8.9 per cent while seasonally adjusted export volumes fell 2.1 per cent, in the September 2013 quarter dairy export prices rose 24 per cent to their highest level since 2008 and are now 46 per cent higher than a year ago, the 7.5 per cent rise in the goods terms of trade was considerably stronger than the median market expectation, the dairy sector was once again the stand-out performer with dairy prices up a "whopping" 23.9 per cent in the quarter and the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 6.2 per cent in the September quarter. Do you want me to go on?
Oh BTW belgarion, no where will you find G.B or China, this is all good solid positive news, the only kind the National Party could and can delivery & guess what? They just did!
Please, please, please give National three more years before they have to save the nation all over again.
I wouldn't stress cuzzie Lab-greens won,t be running the country anytime soon ...so full of hot air it's only a matter of time till something bursts the cozy looney left bubble now that labour have moved away From the centre where most working classes vote ... Won,t be hard for National to pull some aces out closer to the election