Just convincing myself that if the squiggly line starts falling I’ve got to get out and not be tempted to stay in because it could be a long term hold.
Only in in the hope of that $6 plus takeover
But nobody listens to me anyway
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I want some exposure in my portfolio to this sector. Thing is, if its not MET at a 40% discount to NTA or OCA at a 25% discount then all the others are trading at a premium to NTA, (significant premium to likely Covid 19 adjusted NTA), and for the life of me I cannot work out how that is warranted when we're already in a deep worldwide recession...so I will stay out of shares trading at prices that are not supported by the fundamental's.
I started buying at around the current level, low $4's in late 2019 well before any talk of a takeover. I see long term value here even if others don't.
I think taking NTA at face value is the wrong way to value companies anyway. MET accounts at face value implies 40% discount to NTA at current pricing but this is wrong you need to do an adjusted NTA calculaton take the balance sheet figures and go to note 3.1 in the accounts which explains all there property calculations. you need to work out in this environment what is a fair value now not on what there assumptions figures they used in the annual report as they are outdated now and not fit for the current environment.
the adjusted NTA figure is the best figure to use.
as an example even a 10% fall in assumptions make a dramatic difference to NTA and also remember when asset values fall and debt doesnt NTA gets crushed
Interesting observing the debate between Metlife vs Summerset.
Lots of grains of truth in most of the comments with the most important observations imo being :
1. The industry as a whole is on a sound footing with excellent long term prospects due to aging population etc etc etc.
2. Question of really of relative values between Rym, Sum, Met, Arv & Oca.
Fact is, we are but little minnows in the stockmarket - the ones determining the ongoing values (and takeover prices) are the institutions and private equity funds.
With Metlife, really a question imo of when it goes back to $5.00 - either another offer comes to the table or the arb funds finish selling. One or the other will happen - question of time.
Very good points there Bull. NTA needs to be seen in context of the BS. If Assets are $100 and Liabilities are $50 then NTA is $50. There is a bit of leeway.
But another company with Assets of $500 and Liabilities of $450 also has NTA of $50. But that NTA is far more subject to the asset portion. Not much leeway there.
Leverage will always amplify movements in equity position you have in property. That is why MET having the lowest leverage is a very pertinent point. Cash flow is extremely important in a recession. That is another profoundly good reason why having the lowest debt level's in the sector is presently an advantage. I am surprised these basics seem lost on some here.
Hmm - you still holding? Just wondering why anybody who wants to sell would call potential buyers "greater fools"? Though, obviously - this would make a lot of sense if you first want to buy more (and cheaper) MET shares before handing them over for a premium.
In that spirit .... lets all hope for the greater fool waiting for us to first buy some more shares in the low $3 range before they take them off us for say $6+ ;);
yes beagles trader calls have sometimes been good
You obviously missed this above. I owned SUM shares for many years and have attended every annual meeting since they were listed, (except yesterday's virtual one when I have no shares).Quote:
I started buying at around the current level, low $4's in late 2019 well before any talk of a takeover. I see long term value here even if others don't.
Enough of the Bull**** already.