Mav has my respect, OCA has my money.
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Mav certainly has my utmost respect as well, a truely selfless contributor who probably knows more about the company Oceania Healthcare than any other member here, I'll miss his posts.
That said, OCA doesn't have your money, unless you bought all or some of your shares through the IPO or cap raises. More likely is some other punter has your money, the ones you bought the shares from.
It might seem a trivial distinction but the market where we buy and sell shares has no benefit to OCA. Like you'll see people say "I support the company, and buy shares", well sadly that's not support at all unless it's a cap raise, on market it's just our funds going to someone else who is selling, or visa versa.
The current share price, on market, is quite confounding for holders looking for some upside. It show no TA signs of capitulation despite its lowly SP. The volume of shares traded is only about average, there's no capitulation event evident there. The RSI actually ticked up on a one cent gain and is not oversold by technical standards.
It's encouraging for holders that in the immediate short term there is a bounce off the low trend line at .52 (nice move SR), but I wouldn't bank that as a turnaround, yet. At 67% below ATH and 62.5% below NTA, the SP is pretty much fecked against any other fundamental valuations. Whether this is a trigger for investment depression or a trigger for 'let the dogs out', is upto the individual.
It's confounding only because the TA is defying the FA. The market is saying OCA is worth feck all, but the FA is saying whoa, hang on a minute we've got billions in assets, a future development pipeline, heaps of revenue, manageable debt, making a profit, but you the market think we're doomed! Go figure, it won't change what we do at OCA.
Like someone said, hypothetically if you owned the whole company yourself, and you were not listed on the share market, what would you consider the company to be worth, or its value now? I think you'd probably think it's doing pretty well, it would be good if more of the backlog got sold down, and if they can close the gap between care specific costs and care revenue, that would be good too.
The regulatory risk is minor as we're already doing most of that. Government care subsidies are ridiculously low, but the pressure is building to change that. Demographics are obvious, a stark reality staring at us that the government must address aged care funding that is now and coming.
But as a listed RV company, clearly, like all of the others, the whole sector is currently screwed, OCA included. None of them are doing well, even the bellweather SUM is sideways soft, RYM is hurting, ARV are panicking. OCA is teasing capitulation.
Is there not a better time to get some, get some more, or ... give up and gift us your shares? Either way, Oceania won't benefit from it, it's just the market, not the company that will benefit from it.
What’s the odds of a cap raise within 12 months?
This is one of those fallacies up there with 'float' and OCA liabilities are really an asset.
Ask this simple question: If OCA buy the share back who do they pay, he who first bought them or whoever owns them now?
Stay tuned to this channel folks there is more to come...
Spot on.
When reading Baa_Baa's post I was thinking where do they get this stuff?
And the confidence to explain in detail a fallacy.
It reminds me of Sailorboy always arguing that there can't be more buyers than sellers or visa versa, it's such a myopic view.
I look at the equity as a company liability or debt, and no matter who that liability is passed to, the liability remains directly with the company.
When you say more to come? Do you mean more fallacies or more straight to the point logic from you?
You have misunderstood me.
I'm not talking about company valuation, balance sheet accounts etc.
I'm talking about in the situation Snow Leopard pointed out.
If you want to buy the equity of a company i.e the shares you have to pay the shareholder.
If the company wanted to privatize, again they would have to pay the shareholder.
In this instance equity is the same as debt, something that would have to be paid back.
Understand the garbage now?
Yep and that shareholder being the company. It doesn't matter where the money comes from, its just a transfer of the liability. Shares in a sense a similar to a promissory note.
Ok, lets put it another way. The company goes broke and after all liabilities are paid, there is enough to pay shareholders 1c in the dollar.
Where does the money come from?