Yes, but reluctant to use it to buy, stop loss only, to many other variables need to be considered for me to buy.
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Nice one andy, I encourage all to post up their estimations of forward value especially :)
6.5 million customers by 2018 would be awesome for them, but I don't think it would be realistic. 111% growth for the next 5 years would be nice, but again I think a little unrealistic!
Correct me if I am wrong but the quarterly growth rates are:
2013 Q1 - 13%
2013 Q2 - 14%
2013 Q3 - 21.5%
Then guessing, averaging the last ones, Q4 maybe...
2014 Q4 ~ 16%
Which would give a current annualised growth rate of 82%? Or is everyone expecting the trend to continue (I would think it might be cyclical?), which would mean:
2013 Q4 ~ 25%
Which would give a current annual growth rate of 96%... so not quite 111% as you have recorded, but pretty close!
So the question would remain - is Xero's large growth rates going to continue (or improve), going to get worse or going to stay the same? Depending on which view you take will decide the SP in the future, obviously. Was there a post that someone made that gave yoy growth rates? Everyone must be waiting for that next Quarterly update with baited breath...
DISC: Just did the spreadsheet today after work and have not properly checked it.
What I have done is taken the 6 monthly accounts that they produce, and went back to 2008. At each 6 months, then I take the growth rate for the last 6 months (at September), and 12 months (at March), then project that forward by month, to give MoM growth. I have done this for customer numbers. For revenue, I have used to R/C at each 6 months and then used that for the following six months. At 1/4s I have gotten the cash flow in, and divided by the average customer rate, to get what approx the customer numbers are, then have used this growth rate as the new MoM growth. Why the subsequent years is 111% is because that is what the latest is, I have not done any curve analysis to see if the growth is decreasing at YoY and by how much, but I would give it a healthy discount rate.
Spreadsheet is pretty rough, but will see if I have time after work again tomorrow
What's going to happen today with this stock, sell down....or running towards $40.
$35
Who is the perso nhere buying everytime they hit an extra $1? this must be getting expensive. Two trades today all ready and more to come?
$36!!!!!!!!!!!
Freaking out at work. A couple of people here as well as me are shareholders and we are just glued to the screens.
yea will be 50 dollars soon and the top nz company
Now I can see repeat of 2007..