Only weak hands would sell now eh Rawz?
More than willing to own at $1.60 in 2021, but not at 52c. Rawz, please do not try to give me any further advice. Your idiocy will make me want to slam my head against the wall.
Cheers.
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Only weak hands would sell now eh Rawz?
More than willing to own at $1.60 in 2021, but not at 52c. Rawz, please do not try to give me any further advice. Your idiocy will make me want to slam my head against the wall.
Cheers.
Presumably anyone putting money into any stock does so with specific views in mind of what are the value drivers of the stock - ie. macro and micro factors.
As the macro and micro factors unfold, the market will respond (properly or improperly) accordingly.
To me, one must then assess the developments against one’s own value drivers.
Then, act appropriately - be it but, sell or hold.
The market can be wrong - that’s a fact and some of the best gains I have ever made had been when the market was wrong - eg. Serko at 29c. Most of the times, the market is right - eg. Hanging onto ATM and only bailing out when 50% of the gains had been pared back.
The key is to assess the stock continuously against one’s value drivers.
So in the case of OCA, I bailed out the stock I bought during the 30m+ index selldown when the results announced was much much worse than expected. My value driver was a good result or one in line with market expectations.
Look back at how OCA has disappointed from one result to another, year after year and how the macro environment has worsen but holders kept holding.
Is it too late to bail out?
Really it is up to each holder to judge against their value drivers. If they think that their value drivers are intact, by all means hold!
There is not a lot of point looking back at my old posts as I did not really understand investing back then.
All I can say is I made my fair share of mistakes and had my fair share of wins.
Started in 2020 and only feel like I have found a strategy that works for me in these last 12 months.
No need for you to slam your head against a wall pal.
Is it too late to bail. If I held them now I would just keep them in the bottom drawer and bank the experience. There is limited downside.
OCA will fly at some stage. Just like during the GFC, people still got older. Then as soon as the confidence returned to the property market people moved. Demand exceeded supply.
This time will be no different. The only time you trip yourself up is if you need to liquidate your share investment.
They have utilized their balance sheet to invest, buyback huge amounts of stock and pay dividends. Good stuff.
And essentially that is a one off as eventually the bankers/bond holders say no more.
This is what I’m saying with OCA. Will the bankers give them another $600m to build a village (asset)? No. So once you’ve used up that leverage ratio it’s no more. So you can’t grow your assets as quick as you historically did.
Hey rawz …wonder if we will need to trawl through some of the current posts in 2028 when OCA share price is 50 cents ……we would be reminded that few kept on telling us that OCA is a great ‘bet’..like one of those can’t lose/fail investments
we should Reply with Quote some of their posts in case they get deleted lol
The last sentence I agree with.
Glad you understand the importance relative to OCA. Forget about Apple.
Now this is one of the most important paragraphs you will ever read in your life... You 'only feel like I have found a strategy that works for me in these last 12 months'. Now you feel like this because some stocks you have bought have gone way up in price.... This is not a reason for you to feel like your 'strategy' is working for you. You'd need to have success against the market for a full couple of cycles to know that, at least 15 years. So without that time having passed the only other way you can know is that you have the correct process irrespective of the outcome.
My strategy is time tested. Its just value investing with a big focus on margin of safety. Nothing new about it.
Yesterday you said this.
Now imagine having a conversation with Benjamin Graham, Buffett, Li Lu, or any other successful value investor, and telling them you invest in businesses in a "good news up cycle".
Can you imagine the look on their faces... I can.
You won’t understand the good news up cycle bit until you finish uni and work in a few different corporates.
When a company wins it leads to more winning. Bigger bonuses for the sales teams, big team lunches out for the operations teams, more resources for the IT dept etc. the best employees stay and the best at the competition look to jump ship. When you see a company announcing profit upgrades, market share wins etc it’s because they are winning internally and the culture is minted.
Compare to a company constantly announcing bad news.. you know the sales team are missing their bonus, the operations team are getting dominos for lunch and IT dept facing budget cuts. The best employees are jumping ship. The culture is poor. It is very difficult and takes time to reverse this type of company state.
You aren't bullish, you & your first mate are in dream land.
Nothing wrong with constructing a bullish argument, but it needs to be based on reality not all the double counting, down is up BS.
I for one, as stated think OCA currently under valued as I think is RYM but neither are without risk.
Bloody hell, down to 52 cents today. Something is definitely not right here...
1mill shares traded at 53 cents. Is that you Sailor? (I see you said you moved funds from your US holdings)
deleted deleted
Cancellation of dividend is the cause of the fall in SP. Most investors feel that it will be six months at least before an interim dividend will be considered and nothing much will boost the SP until then.
At these prices, takeover should not be excluded. Its a real anomaly. Relatively high NTA backing gives OCA a long term edge. OCA really needs to hustle on the divestment of the surplus properties and stop all further development until better times.
SR you got one OCA trade right and have been consistently wrong about OCA for many years since. Get some more runs of the board then maybe people would be more inclined to agree with you.
You don't think it's a bit ridiculous to try and call out people who point out the languishing share price and poor performance, but then say your investment horizon is 15 years away!?
On that basis you could claim anything (bull or bear) about any stock! "Hey guys, you just don't get it, yes the share is down 90% but wait until 2040!" It's absurd.
What's more making several posts per day about it. Say 5 x 365 x 15. You've got just shy of 30K more forum posts to go until your thesis comes provable. Again, absurd.
I'd prefer they keep the developments going, but maybe reduce debt funding and fund with a higher proportion of ora. (This might reduce further developments). But i want them to be continuing to get as many ora generating assets as possible behind them as time progresses (keep the divi and plow it into more ora generating assets please).
I'm fairly certain you and most of the negative here are either misguided or stirring for a bit of sport (I have no issue with either by the way provided we are all being relatively respectful to each other). I know this because if a 1.6mil house price dropped to 500k or less, you would snap it up if you had the cash to do so, and stand on the roof tops shouting out about the bargain you got.
And if you were the one who owned the house bought at 1.6mil, the housing market would be a total failure, all and sundry be forewarned about how much of a failure.
If nothing else, this thread certainly highlights the psychological aspect to investing, much like Dremen talks about in his book.
Suggest you look closely at how OCA has not only used all the 'float' but loaded up with debt to the point that it now has to sell assets & stopped paying dividends to pay operating costs and interest.
Fine if OCA has invested all the 'float' and debt in good quality assets in demand by the market but it has not imo.
The float has not only been badly invested by management in ever more expensive and costly developments (resulting in more unsold stock) but management has loaded up with debt and gone on a spending spree as well like a classic boom time amateur developer! hardly surprising that Brent has done a runner.
And what happens with over-leveraged developers left with unsold stock?
Meanwhile, suggest you also look at the amortization of DMF and how that has (imo) resulted in front ended recognition of revenues with costs to be covered later.
Well it's hardly misguided if it's been right, which to date has been the case. And as I said in another post I don't see posters such as Winner or Balance overly bearish, maybe short term. But they do point out the potential risks. They just aren't in the ra ra camp like a Warriors supporter, where nothing can go wrong & even if it does, it's actually a positive.
No doubt about the house but that $1.6M house I would get a return on.
The only return OCA are getting is DMF that basically offsets operational losses.
The rest is new sales or resales.
Their NTA is a share price of $1.60 either, I think it's inflated as well.
I still standby my current valuation of around 90c.
See I'm not a bear.
Suggest you do the same, ValueNZ and retest your value drivers for OCA - there is much for you to learn just as there is for the rest of us too.
OCA is no 'virgin' RV company investing its 'float' in good quality developments and assets but a company loaded up with debt and in a different space altogether.
Not quite correct Balance. From the latest AR page 58, in particular the part in green:
P.S. I noticed the phrasing "premium apartments" was not there last year, previously DMF for apartments were all amortised over 5 years. Now premium apartments are 7 years. So in fact, OCA have moved to spreading the DMF revenue from permium apartments over a longer time period, which is the opposite of 'front end loading'.Quote:
Deferred Management Fees
Deferred management fees are considered leases and are payable by residents of the Group’s
units, apartments and care suites under the terms of their ORA or unit title rights. Refer to note 3.4.
Management fees are typically payable on termination of the ORA up to a maximum percentage
of a resident’s occupation licence or unit title rights deposit for the right to share in the use and
enjoyment of common facilities.
The timing of the recognition of deferred management fees is a critical accounting estimate and
judgement. The deferred management fee is recognised on a straight line basis over the longer of
the term specified in a resident’s ORA or the average expected occupancy. The expected periods
of occupancy are based on historical Group averages, for the relevant accommodation they are
estimated to be 7 years for units and premium apartments, 5 years for apartments and 3 years for
care suites from the date of occupation.
Note from 2023 AR:
Quote:
they are estimated to be 7 years for units, 5 years for apartments and 3 years for care suites
Ok so "been right", I will agree with you on that if your measure of right is shareprice alone, in that case you are right and my above post is wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cupsy View Post
I'm fairly certain you and most of the negative here are either misguided or stirring for a bit of sport (I have no issue with either by the way provided we are all being relatively respectful to each other). I know this because if a 1.6mil house price dropped to 500k or less, you would snap it up if you had the cash to do so, and stand on the roof tops shouting out about the bargain you got.
And if you were the one who owned the house bought at 1.6mil, the housing market would be a total failure, all and sundry be forewarned about how much of a failure.
If nothing else, this thread certainly highlights the psychological aspect to investing, much like Dremen talks about in his book.
You're welcome. From the note:
If residents live less than expected then it's a windfall. If residents live longer than expected then it's a loss. Swings and roundabouts is how I see it. I have faith in the valuation and audit methodologies. If there are major observed departures from historical averages, I would expect amortisation periods to be adjusted accordingly. The new method for 'premium apartments' suggests OCA have been proactive in not front end loading DMF revenue recognition on this subset of properties based on something they know.Quote:
straight line basis over the longer of the term specified in a resident’s ORA or the average expected occupancy. The expected periods of occupancy are based on historical Group averages
Where confusion can arise is the profile for charging DMF differs to it's recognition in the P&L. Yes there is front end loading of charging clients (much like insurance is invoiced in advance, not in arrears) but that is not indicative of how the revenue is recognised in the P&L. Hence we have "deferred management fees" on the liability side of the balance sheet which is essentially unearned income - unearned in the sense that it has been charged to the client, but not yet taken to the P&L.
Man you are such a spruiker.
I agree with Balance. Absolute garbage but for a different reason.
Building costs have actually been coming down, not going up, after the spike in costs due to Covid. Just look at what a company like GJ Gardner is offering now.
The Government has also said they want to cut red tape & allow more & cheaper building products to be imported.
So its not impossible to think build costs could reduce by a further 10 or 20%, perhaps more.
Mate you are the only one who has been dreaming.
Ignore that risk at your peril as if it happens it will have a material impact on resale margins.
I see you ignored the fact that building costs are actually reducing right now and have been for the last year or so.
How are the latest Corelogic valuations factored into the OCA SP recovery time frame.
wow this thing is going down quicker than the Titanic. $0.52 is just ridiculous considering their super high super safe NTA.
I think the new CEO will soon realise day to day operations are running at a loss so will efficiently envisioneer principle-centered process improvements to reduce costs
We have been around, W69 so like Ryman, new CEO will want to start with a clean slate before buzzing us with her visions and missions?
Fully expecting her to talk prospects and outlook down first (very tough out there) and initiate write-downs & provisions. Lots of hard work ahead for her but have faith that she will prevail! Investors have to be patient and give her the opportunity to clean up the mess left behind. Brent already alerted to the clean up ahead, remember?
Nothing like starting from the lowest point!
Get the feeling that the institutions already have an inkling of what kind of action the new CEO is going to take? :eek2:
Reminds me of that scene in Braveheart..
I think hed be thinking of the bit near the end where poor Mel gets eviscerated.
Ok, no I have it now. It is the rallying speeches we have seen from Sailor Wallace.
****
Sailor Wallace: Sons of NZ! My name is Sailor Wallace...
Value NZ: Sailor Wallace is 7 feet tall!!!
Sailor Wallace: Yes, I've heard! And if he were here, he'd consume the institutional sellers with fireballs from his eyes! And bolts of lightning from his arse!
**bit of a chuckle from the onlookers*
Sailor Wallace: I AM Sailor Wallace! And I see before me an army of my retail investors here in defiance of OCA tyranny! WHAT WILL YOU DO WITHOUT OCA? Will ya hold?!
Winner: No, we will sell! And actually make money investing elsewhere!
Sailor Wallace: Aye, hold and you may die. Sell, and you'll make more money. Fehr utleest eh whale...and dying in your beds, many trades from now... would you be willing... to give all the trades, from this trade to that!, ...for one chance …JUST ONE CHANCE!!… to come back here, and tell those insto sellers... that...
THEY MAKE TAKE OUR GAINS...BUT THEY'LL NEVER TAKE... OUR OCA SHARES!!!
**rapturous applause and general yelling and hooting from the fans**
Good one, mT!
And here's where that great movie ended!
https://youtu.be/cCHf8FxqzJc?si=svr8itDY9P3TSh7r
Stop it, mT! :D
It's too much laughter even for me this time of the evening!
https://media.tenor.com/wIxFiobxxbIA...ameson-lol.gif
Yeah I have watched Braveheart once or twice.
I often think about how sailor and value first met.
***
Elder (sailor) Wallace: un, wear da ya think yer goin?
Younger (value) Wallace: Ehm goin wid yew!
Elder: ohhh yehr goin wid me are ye?
Younger: *nods*
Elder: *hoisting value over his shoulder” Aye, un a foin ‘elp yehd be twooo…but, eh need yeh ta steyh ere un look after the forum fehr me…whale em eh way…
Younger: aye kun traydh…
Elder: *softly* eh knowwww. Eh know ya kun trayhdd!
But it’s our insulting posts thut mehk us mehn…
Told you to stop it, mT!
My partner just got upset with me for spilling some of the wine!
https://images.hive.blog/0x0/https:/...nqGQ/giphy.gif
'tis a good one eh?
All in the timing. :eek2:
https://youtu.be/iDVuQi4gdtk?si=xBICNsdkdi8qcCSo
The transcript posted by SR had some typos in it. For instance references to IOUs were actually ILUs. And the "cleaning" quote was incorrect, the actual transcript of that sentence is:
"um, we`ve got plenty of um , plenty ahead of us."
Brent repeated the word 'plenty' which was mistaken for 'cleaning'.
Thanks for clarifying Ferg, I thought it a strange comment.
I am currently on the other side of the world so appreciate all for their input.
Except for Daytr as usual.
SailorBoy more reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python.
OCA's SP drop is a mere flesh wound...
https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs?feature=shared
All the noise is coming from you Short Term/Momentum Traders. Your fixation with it is crazy. Just because the share price is falling doesn't mean the companies going broke. I said after result I expected the share price to settle around $0.50 until we see a fall with inflation and the market gets to see when interest rates pencil in when rates start to come down which will be the last quarter of the year for me.
Remember the debt whist high is locked in at a cheaper interest rate until 2028. I wonder what the debt position will be then. Makes me wonder where the share price will be then :)
What a **** show. I believe in this sort of situation, the share price is not actually an attempt to form an accurate valuation of the company as it stands today, it's more a leading indicator of where the market thinks the macro situation is going (particularly re: property prices). Also liquidity flows, as the big wealth managers and fund managers have been downweighting NZ equities to invest offshore (follow the performance trail).
Love that SR buying hard here... Double down.... Love the conviction and hope it works out.
I remember some similiar behaviour from Coutts back in the day with ATM. Was a similar much discussed share back then too....
With all due respect, I think the fixation is a reaction with the constant spruiking, screwed up logic, up is down, nothing to see here, negatives are actually positives type rhetoric.
I find it interesting that not many shareholders question this sort of hyperbole. The fact they don't suggests to me they are clinging to hope rather than reality.
Having been one of the biggest critics of this absurd logic, I still however have put out a target value of 90c.
Wow. After all that you see a potential 100% gain to be had. (I'm factoring in a drop to 45 cents)
The thing is, these sort of asymmetric investment opportunities do not come around that often. You need a mix of low liquidity, poor sentiment and retail popular shares to get this sort of price action. The cost of living struggles many are facing also help.
There is nothing wrong with being genuinely grateful for the opportunity. It is quite a rare occasion, especially when buying a business backed by real tangible assets.
A reminder, even the post pessimistic analysts rate the stock significantly higher than it's current trading price.
remember folk's most of the posters on this thread are bagholders
One thing is certain, not enough of us are doing a reasonable level of due diligence wrt oca conveyed information (AR etc). The level of misinformation on here really is horrendous.
Well 70% actually. Doesn't mean I wouldn't rule out 45c or even 40c in the meantime.
Their reduction in development should see a reduction in debt, I also think the property market will improve in the next 12 months in fact outside of Wellington due to Government job cuts, I think we are already seeing that.
Well I guess that's true, but you'd expect that we'd all be a step up from your average retail investor if we are taking the time to participate on here. But my gosh, some days it's like a book review where a bunch of ppl who haven't read the book (or even seen the movie adaptation) are trying to discuss the plot.
Nope, but I have heard the opposite.
21 buyers at 52c for less than $150k of shares or $7.1k average per buyer.
Hardly the big end of town...
What's it costing you? A new main sail. :)
Seriously though, I think it's good buying down here, but it doesn't mean its not without risk or that it wont see 'deeper' value next week...