Did FPH weightage increase in any Index on 17th sept ? Why it traded such large volumes @ both NZX and ASX ...almost 3 times normal vols ??
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Did FPH weightage increase in any Index on 17th sept ? Why it traded such large volumes @ both NZX and ASX ...almost 3 times normal vols ??
https://www.covid19treatmentguidelin...d-ventilation/
NIH guidelines regarding HFNC vs CPAP or PPV is totally opposite to new recommendations of NICE ...both cite random studies but NIH studies are peer reviewed also and more in numbers and sample sizes .
Question arises how can two premier medical institutes get totally opposite results from random studies .
NIH states CPAP or NIPPV is most inferior of the 3 options while NICE says its the most superior ...
" High-Flow Nasal Cannula and Noninvasive Positive Pressure Ventilation
HFNC is preferred over NIPPV in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure based on data from an unblinded clinical trial in patients without COVID-19 who had acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. Study participants were randomized to HFNC, conventional oxygen therapy, or NIPPV. The patients in the HFNC group had more ventilator-free days (24 days) than those in the conventional oxygen therapy group (22 days) or NIPPV group (19 days) (P = 0.02), and 90-day mortality was lower in the HFNC group than in either the conventional oxygen therapy group (HR 2.01; 95% CI, 1.01–3.99) or the NIPPV group (HR 2.50; 95% CI, 1.31–4.78).3 In the subgroup of more severely hypoxemic patients (PaO2/FiO2 mm Hg ≤200), the intubation rate was lower for HFNC than for conventional oxygen therapy or NIPPV (HR 2.07 and 2.57, respectively).
The trial’s findings were corroborated by a meta-analysis of eight trials with 1,084 patients conducted to assess the effectiveness of oxygenation strategies prior to intubation. Compared to NIPPV, HFNC reduced the rate of intubation (OR 0.48; 95% CI, 0.31–0.73) and ICU mortality (OR 0.36; 95% CI, 0.20–0.63).4
NIPPV may generate aerosol spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus increase nosocomial transmission of the infection.5,6 It remains unclear whether HFNC results in a lower risk of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 transmission than NIPPV. "
Marketwatch today
Shares in Pacific Edge surged 6.1% after it raised $80 million in an oversubscribed placement but the NZX's benchmark equity index fell as its biggest stock, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, took a 3.1% tumble.
First reaction was it seemed rather strange but I suppose that's the way the market behaves these days
FPH didn't have good August sales ...lowest of FY 22 so far ....only $ 120 Mil estimated from exports data out yesterday .
5 months so far $ 700 Mil ...little above analysts expectations but below mine ...:t_down:
PS : If Sept is also similar then 6 months results can be around $ 825-50 Mil range
With a bit of luck sharetraders will continue to sell down FPH on this news. Share investors, on the other hand , will see it as an opportunity to buy a few more!
:cool:
FPH most sold (Value sells less value buys) by Direct Broking / Jarden clients last week
How right u r !!! Last time SP went below 400 SMA / EMA for a meaningful period was Dec 2018 and it was around $ 12 that time ...We all know what it did in next 2 years ...
Hopefully and likely history will repeat itself as FPH still best quality company on NZX ...so just on that count ...It can be $ 60 in next 2 years ...:t_up:
400 EMA is $31.36 ... still nearly a dollar to go :):
Suspect as well that buyers need to have a bit of patience ... this years financials probably not that flash (compared to the previous).
Agree however - in the long run it likely will be a satisfactory investment.
Mitsubishi bought up about 6.1m shares in the last 4 months.
355654.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com)
It is a good old tradition for me to buy FPH below the EMA400 - so I couldn't resist today :);
Nibbled some more around $30.
I guess - sure, they well might keep dropping to the lower boundary of their current trading band, but then, they might not ... and pretty sure whatever it is that I will be pleased in a decade from now with the purchase price.
This thread always gets a bit panickie when the price drops below $30.. the SP always bounces back to the mid $30s.
I will again be accumulating. Will try 3 buy orders;
$29.00
$28.50
$28.00
Maybe there will be no need to trouble your bank balance ...may not go there .
U need to understand TA aspect also ...when last it went to 27 at that time 400 SMA was 28 ...now 400 SMA is 32.26 ...400 EMA is 30.27 ...as per Yahoo charts ...means lots of water flown under the bridge ...todays 29.80 is like that days 26 .... BP was not buying then ...he is now ...Major change :D
This coming from the man who loves to dangle around with future stock prices like carrots ... like $50 (or whatever) by Christmas?
Anyway - I am not predicting ... just disclosing my working assumptions :p):
And lets face it - how would anybody be able to successfully invest if they don't make assumptions related to the overall return of the investment?
While nobody can predict the future with certainty and particularly not future stock prices ... the people who get it more often right than wrong are successful investors and the others not so successful investors.
So far my record is good enough to feed me and my family - which is good enough for me :):
With a rising 400 SMA ....Did u see the rising trend line in BP post few weeks back ...its rising ...means it goes up little bit ...same as 400 SMA ...its at 32.25 Attachment 13079
oversold with clear divergence on the RSI.
I'm seeing a bullish descending wedge. ready for spike down and reversal.Attachment 13082
discl. trading this stock , currently long.
How a results date announcement become price sensitive info ...NZX fault or FPH ??
And puts FPH in auto HALT for 15 mins
Hey alokdhir - Forbar gurus say they’ve built a model based on export data to forecast sales. Did you help them …or maybe they just stole your idea (IP)
They say - The newly built ‘revenue proxy’ model implies the healthcare exporter will report a revenue decline of approximately 9% to $830m, which is modestly below consensus.
Their model as good as yours?
That would be 15% YOY growth without Covid W69 so could easily be about right
If u read my last post after August exports data release date ....I have mentioned almost exactly the same figure as most likely 6 months revenue ...Looks like they have stolen my IP ...they will be hearing from me ...or they just read it here ...lol
Final figure will be updated after Sept exports data released . But it will remain in that vicinity only $ 825-850Mil
" FPH didn't have good August sales ...lowest of FY 22 so far ....only $ 120 Mil estimated from exports data out yesterday .
5 months so far $ 700 Mil ...little above analysts expectations but below mine ...https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images.../thumbdown.gif
PS : If Sept is also similar then 6 months results can be around $ 825-50 Mil range "
Post Number 2004
Well done Alokdhir- FPH master
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...30/financials/
Seems about right
Most likely full year FY22 eps will be around 75 cents ...so average p/e of 45 = $ 33.50 Current fair value ...It will get rerated for next years eps of 90 cents when market is sure of it ...most likely after Nov results ...so Dec to March 22 will be most productive period for SP if all goes well .
Forward PE for FPH is in the early forties. Not cheap (even considering the forward earnings CAGR of 13), but not too dear either.
This is just the premium the market seems to be happy to pay for quality companies.
Just compare that with XRO (forward PE of 330 - with an "earnings CAGR" not worthwhile talking about (year to year earnings still jittering around the zero);
Or compare that with AIA ... similar forward PE like FPH (if the analysts are right, which they often are not) and a negative forward earnings CAGR.
But sure - market well might decide at some stage to reduce its ideas of what an appropriate P/E is ... and I suppose if interest rates keep rising, this might be one of the triggers.
How u said both things in same breath ...U said $ 830 mil revenue which translates to 75 cents annualised eps below consensus and then U said FY22 consensus is 62 cents !!
Historically FPH has traded on p/e of 35 to 60 range ..say mean being 47.5 ...after mid year gone ie after Nov results ...market starts discounting it for next years expected eps so p/e starts expanding towards higher range .
I expect same to happen after its consolidation is over . From Dec onwards it may start looking to FY23 eps of 85-90 cents depending on analysts views ...Mine medium term views are 75cents this year , 85-90 cents eps for FY23 ...so in calendar 22 sometime it should trade to $ 45 ...
Article in CNBC about Philips. I guess FPH will be facing same issues (supply chain issue, shortage of electronic components etc etc):
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/phil...ages-bite.html
Same with car manufacturers around the world. Not sure though, I am convinced it will hit their bottom line. If you produce something which is in demand and you can't produce enough of it due to supply shortages and your competitors are exactly in the same situation causing a shortage of product in the market - what exactly is happening to the margins?
Right :t_up:.
"“At this stage, we do not anticipate any significant impact on supply to our existing customers. We will continue to assess this on an ongoing basis, particularly if the outbreak escalates or continues for a prolonged period,” said Mr Gradon.
“During this challenging time for China, we appreciate the efforts of our own team and our suppliers. Our people have been working long hours to ship products quickly, assemble them, and meet the need for training, particularly in Wuhan. Many of our suppliers have expedited the supply of raw materials to us as a manufacturer of essential medical devices, and we are deeply grateful for that,” he said."
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348775
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/our-compa.../supply-chain/
FPH has shown in 2020 that they manage challenges much better then many other companies ...so I see this as another opportunity to SHINE ...:t_up:
Monthly exports data is out .
FPH did better in Sept ...only down -4.5 % on PCP .
Estimated monthly revenue is $ 155 Mil
My estimated 6 months revenue is $ 850-55 Mil ....so its doing better then Guru analysts expectations
I bought some on the ASX about a month ago.
The benefit is the currency moves back down = some extra cash.
Not feeling the love today but its a low volume selldown like a few other NZX stocks, bit of rats and mice fear around?
Fph is up and down like whores draws lately:)
getting a bit sick of the ups and downs... might sell them all
I've said it before, FPH acts like a trading stock, rather than the steady-as-she-goes, growth stock which in theory is what it's supposed to be. Hard to know where it is going to be from one month to the next. And even during a pandemic, when it should be consistently outperforming, the SP has been even more volatile than usual. Long term it might be good value, but it's a bumpier ride than I expected when I bought in.
I guess it depends what you are looking at.
For any long-term investor FPH is a dream, and I am pretty sure it will stay that way:
Attachment 13211
In only nine years from less than $2 per share to above $30 per share with actually little volatility is not too bad, isn't it? This is something like 25% gain per year not even considering the dividend.
Looking at the trend - it is easy to see that Covid gave the SP in early 2020 a boost - and obviously - what needs to go up needs to come down (back to the main trendline), but I am sure they will do fine if you plan for the next decade.
If anybody however plans to cash out next month, than shares might not be the right investment anyway - in that case I would recommend to consider a cash account at the friendly bank next door :p: Less volatility, but obviously as well - significantly less long term gains.
If you guys don't mind the currency exposure IDNA (ishares etf) has companies at the leading edge of healthcare, rather than relying on legacy revenue only.
PE ratio is acceptable too at 30.
What chart software are you using there BP please?
If you only looked at the FPH share price once a year there about a 95% chance you’d be a happy punter
Check the price every hour (say 1750 times a year) you will probably have about 920 happy moments …but 830 times you will rather sad / pissed off / wondering what’s going
Even once a day will give you many sad days
Lesson —- don’t look at the FPH share price too often if you are convinced it’s a great bet
I agree. I also think, same as with MFT, people are possibly under estimating how much these companies are positioned to use covid to help transform their business. Its true that both have seen a short-term boost to their profitability but I think it's a mistake to think things will just drop back to the long-term trendline. Both companies are using this situation to their long-term advantage.
The Trading View website and app are both great and free. Displays really well on a mobile as well.
Up 5% after being down that much two days ago. Good stock for traders lol
So we are expecting some announcement on 25 November. Interesting to see main institutional holders are Vanguard and Black rock. Also biggest institutional holders for Pfizer. What a coincidence. These two companies basically own the planet. I think it is fair to say everyone is expecting a good result especially as they supply in-hospital respiratory equipment mainly, and that is a no brainer. Great ROE YOY, and great increases in EPS . Very little increase in shares over the years so no dilution. Very nice stock
Want to know people's view about expected market reaction to upcoming FPH results ....
I am expecting revenue around $ 850-860 Mil and NP $ 215-220 Mil .
What people think will be reaction of the market to such a result ? Thoughts please
This time last year they announced H1 NPAT of $225m - share price was about $34.00 and didn't do too much post announcement
So this year your $220m is a bit less and share price $31.60 ...so may go up a bit post announcement
Key will be if they come out with full year guidance - bullish and share price will take off if they continue with their reluctance to give guidance things probably a bit subdued (or bad if punters get a bit peeved)
They are also launching a new product, visairo (see investor news 17/11/2021).
Revenue boost for the second half?
" Jarden’s director of equity research, Adrian Allbon said the key focus of the result will be how covid-related sales are normalising having been elevated since March last year.
Allbon expects revenue to fall 7% to $849m and net profit to drop 17% to $188m, but the board to announce a dividend payout of 21 cents per share – up 24%. "
" As per NZ Herald market expecting 866 Mil Revenue and 200 Mil NP "
Key being both expectations are over analysts forecasts after last full year results ....so can expect a better reaction this time ...maybe $ 34 SP !!!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383536
Looks like a better result than expected.
Which part is mixed for U ?? Revenue beaten best estimates of maximum 866 Mil ...NP beaten best estimates of 200 Mil by more then 10 % ...
Huge expansions plans showing huge growth ahead ... Margins improved while analysts were predicting huge 1.5 % reduction especially at Jarden
I cant see anything mixed here buddy ...only goodies
Any fears of things going backwards should be gone
Nothing to stop share price moving up a lot
Always good to prove guru analysts wrong …..I’ll forgive alokdhir
And analysts were talking of 30% reductions after last full year results ...If this keeps on like this ...very good chance they will match last years full year results . In constant currency may exceed possible ...wow ...seems so better then what was being predicted by all smart analysts in May 2021 ...
Huge expansion and why needed written very clearly ...should be red flags to bulls ...Breakout of rectangle possible ...medium term $ 45 target very much on the cards
No earnings guidance. Hospital hardware revenue not expected to continue at an elevated level for rest of year. Consumer revenue to be lower in 2nd half etc. I liked the top end figures a lot but the market can be a strange beast when it comes to the commentary, hope I'm just being picky. Lol
No earning guidance is just continuation of old policy as no one knows who will not like to be vaccinated ...pun intended buddy so dont get mad ...lol .
Hardware revenue all know cant keep growing like last year at 85% ...now even 20% will be super bonus
Consumables revenue cant match Covid mayhem revenue of last winters ...so saying so
For me
“The longer-term impact from COVID-19 for our business has been a larger installed base of our hospital hardware and increased global physician awareness and experience with our therapies and products. To ensure we are well-positioned to meet demand for the ongoing use of this installed base of hardware and accommodate our strong new product pipeline, we are continuing to invest in our infrastructure to ensure it supports our long-term growth,” said Mr Gradon. "
Most important to move it up big time and keep it up
Quite relaxed on that no matter which way it might go short term.
While I can't see the market dragging the stock down on this announcement ... but if it really does, what an amazing top up opportunity would that be :):
Remember ... FPH is one of these golden stocks .... always good to buy below MA400 ...
Market looks happy so all good.
" Fisher & Paykel, as the index’s biggest stock, was responsible for the bulk of this gain as it climbed 4.9% to $33.78 with 1.1m shares traded.
Investors had been expecting the exporter to report significantly lower revenue as pandemic-related sales subsided, however, income only dropped 1% as sales held up better than expected.
Head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners, Mark Lister said the result was ahead of market expectations, with some analysts being too cautious with their numbers.
“When we wake up tomorrow, analysts will have beefed up their numbers and gotten a little more positive about the stock,” he said.
More action to come tomorrow :t_up:
" Greg Main, Jarden Wealth Management adviser, said Fisher and Paykel's solid result brought a better tone to the market – the big stocks always help sentiment and the interest rate-sensitive shares even had a bounce-back.
"Fisher and Paykel was always going to be a difficult one as it had such big demand for its hospital hardware equipment when the Covid pandemic hit. But its sales are still on the upside, they have made some cost savings, and analysts may have misread the forecast a bit. And the fact they are spending money on development is a positive medium-term signal," Main said. "
"
Share price hit 34.55 yesterday
Will get there early on today before pushing on over 35 bucks
No worries ….jeez even couta and BlackPeter on same page
What a stunning result yesterday and a very exciting growth plan ahead for holders and NZ in general, with the developments here in NZ. As said several times on this thread, the exposure FPH's equipment has had all around the World due to COVID, has made it a much better known brand & equipment by both medical professionals and healthcare management. That will continue to drive growth.
A great result for a great company. Should be in everyone’s long term portfolio. Not a bargain at current price more fair value in my opinion.
Another positive year in 2022.
I think we will start to see people being hit a second time as natural immunity wanes for the unvaccinated.
Or we get a new variant:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...ZQKQ3KYR2D2RE/
Where is da love today. Lol
Today is only retail participants ...Institutional investors who depend on analysis and brokerage advises and views must be taking it easy ....
Anyways after that results and future expansion plans based on managements anticipated future demand I am not worried even for the short term trend ...its firmly now buy the dips
Even my optimistic 75 Cents EPS for current year has been upgraded to 85 Cents ...Market had 66 Cents penciled ...
Still up and down like whores draws:t_up: Didn't think that'd happen today. Often the way.:p