Exactly thanks Minberejet. Peb is the only stock I own got a few getting more.
I know about all your eggs in one basket, but one famous investor once said that's OK as long as look after the basket.
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Exactly thanks Minberejet. Peb is the only stock I own got a few getting more.
I know about all your eggs in one basket, but one famous investor once said that's OK as long as look after the basket.
you might wanna jump back in...
Well that announcement was interesting but with no new news, and perhaps a little odd, as we know from the AGM, first US sales occurred in July 2013.
So, …., first "commercial" sales now means, first sales through FedMed funded clinicians ?
First US sale achieved. Another good little piece of news just announced. Well done. Seems everybody is busy in Xero Thread.
Another milestone, another validation of business model and progress.
Another few cents SP increase on the way (71 look slike it's about to go).
.....you might regret that m8......your'e now trading the wrong stock.......it's all growth from here on, beginning as of now.......runs on the board. No disappointment in the latest bit of news at all.........EXPONENTIAL GROWTH FROM HERE ON!! Just sit back RELAX and watch the steady improvement in SP. HOLDER!
"the processing of patient samples is exceeding the prompt turnaround times
expected by clinicians delivering on our brand promise".
Nice to hear that.
Due diligence will be rewarded for long term holders. traders will consistently be guessing about this stock. Back two horses each-way always cuts profits and adds indecision. I'll keep on buying when traders get nervous in their seats.
David Darling is in the US at present and PEB are clearly in discussion with several LUG's and insurers over there, I'm reconciling the timing and content of this announcement such that it was intended entirely for a US audience.
Dipped in this one as well..see how it goes.
I must say I am confused by it. It sounds like their first sale. Or maybe the previous sale,a s we know there has been at least one, was a private sale (ie. a home test)
I've bought more today. I like the announcement - it is a 'ducks in a row' type announcement. Yesterday we heard they have access to docs/patients through their big agreement and today we are told that access is resulting in commercial sales.
Or maybe they thought, hey yesterday was fun, let's try that again.
Most likely yes, home sales as the product is simple and available to all. Someone was posting a personal blog account of an individual who was recovering from bladder cancer (I believe?) who was sending away for CxBladder. Direct to the public is a sales pathway for them.
BOOM!! They come in with another right hook!
PEB
18/10/2013 12:34
GENERAL
REL: 1234 HRS Pacific Edge Limited
GENERAL: PEB: Cxbladder is Supreme Winner at NZ Innovators Awards
18 October 2013
Cxbladder is Supreme Winner at NZ Innovators Awards
Pacific Edge is the 2013 Supreme Winner of the NZ Innovators Award for
Cxbladder, its novel gene test for the detection and management of bladder
cancer.
The citation for the Supreme Award presented in Auckland last night (17
October 2013) says: "Patient compliance is significantly enhanced with the
easy-to-use, in home or in clinic urine sample system. This detection system
minimises the need to go to a laboratory collection centre or wait to see the
specialist at a time when the cancer can be progressing".
Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David Darling says Cxbladder is a quick,
cost effective, non-invasive and highly accurate cancer detection test that
has significant advantages over alternative systems.
"Our focus is on developing systems for the early detection of cancers; early
detection and treatment saves lives. The Supreme Award for Cxbladder is
recognition of the commercialisation of the innovation, science and
technology that has gone into developing this novel biomedical product and
the work of the entire team of scientists, technologists and clinicians who
have been involved in its development, here and overseas."
"Pacific Edge is delighted that Cxbladder has now been launched in the US and
is also available to potential bladder cancer patients in New Zealand and
Australia and soon in Spain, the country with the worlds highest incidence of
bladder cancer."
I like the way they do it lol...shall buy more today
Ellis Bros Stockbrokers. Just sent out a flash on the latest report from Peb, at least one broker firm is following the play that's going on.
What does this mean to you?
First Commercial Sales Achieved for Pacific Edge's Cxbladder in the USA
Cancer diagnostic specialist Pacific Edge (NZX:PEB) is delighted to announce
that it has completed the first commercial sales of Cxbladder tests
signalling the start of the commercial revenue for the company in the US. The
tests were ordered by US based clinicians and processed in Pacific Edge USA
(PEDUSA)'s custom laboratory in Hershey Pennsylvania.
For a sale to be completed then they have been paid for it. Allowing time for billing and payment the original order and distribution to the clinicians (plural) may have occurred some time ago.
On top of that there would undoubtedly be more tests in the interim required from these same clinicians from new patients presenting with haematuria and monitoring those unfortunate enough to have contracted bladder cancer. Providing of course they are happy with the results.
Ad astra (to the stars)
Miner
A sale does not need to be paid for before it is deemed 'complete'. Organisationally, Sales & Marketing are distinct from Accounts Receivable. In fact, Order Fulfilment is also distinct from Sales (i.e. product or service delivery is also unecessary for a sale to be deemed completed).
BC
Sorry, couldn't resist.
oops , talking over the top, always the slow one
Snapiti - 53% gain per week over a year is a big number isn't it (even after tax)
We digress
In an interview with Darling on the radio I got an impression that the technological they are using for cxbladder is a platform that can be used for other things ........ suggesting that cxbladder is just the first cab of the rank .... much more to come?
FedMed Repricing Options
Electronic Data Interface (EDI)
FedMed's EDI repricing application conforms to all HIPAA regulations. EDI is a paperless process that drastically reduces the expense of manual processing. Clients' experience a significant reduction in transaction cycle times, as well as, a significant reduction in clerical errors. EDI allows clients to submit and receive claims in the ASC X12 837 format release versions 4010 and 5010. Clients can submit daily or multiple batch files electronically to FedMed. Turnaround time typically averages 24-48 hours. Professional and facility claims can both be repriced through our EDI application.
Yes very good. I'd settle for 1% per week if it was guaranteed. Not having such a good year to far.
My tax comments are just to keep people in line. Last thing we want is the Hearld quote ShareTrader (and they do) about all these fabulous tax free capital gains people are earning from trading. I cringe everytime I see a young couple in the NZ Hearld who are quoted as "we bought this as a quick flick and earnt $100k tax free in 6 weeks".
Currently it is a yes or no test. Next stage will advise the severity
http://www.pacificedgedx.com/products/pipeline/
Edit: I think they are still progressing with the prognosis test (an extention of the current product). It is the Cxcolorectal they have put on hold (which is a completely different test).
sp is finding some solid resistance at 72c.
I've sold half and will continue to hold the rest awhile.
My brother-in-law died of a mixture of bladder & lymphatic cancer earlier this year. If this product had been available to his oncologist three years ago, it may (G-willing) have been a different outcome.
This company is a great example of kiwi ingenuity, quality science, credible management, unusually good sales & marketing, and a feel-good, decent product. Me thinks this one can go the distance. Go you wee beauty.
That was my thought- probably occurred about six weeks ago and whats the bet they have lots more since.
November may have a few sales confirmed but we can look forward to Februarys quarterly report with great interest.
Disc: Holding - on tight
And a big whack up to .74
A 100000 share trade took it through 72.
Yee haa
Must have bought too many the other day, note it has taken them to 4.996%, just under.
...ACC sells BUT the intelligent investor buys......think medium term $1.50/longterm $much much more........$5?? Cx Bladder is just the beginning of a big bright and LONG future for this Co.........all things being equal. 72/75c still only back to where it was 3mnths without much news........just a wee bit different now.
...ACC sells BUT the intelligent investor buys......think medium term $1.50/longterm $much much more........$5?? Cx Bladder is just the beginning of a big bright and LONG future for this Co.........all things being equal. 72/75c still only back to where it was 3mnths without much news........just a wee bit different now.
I'm not saying you've got it, just making commentary.
Observation Bias.
All you saw a week ago were long term indicators. This week its all chatter short term signals that should influence us all.
Just remember the weakest part of this whole economic thing are those of us observing it.
.....ah in the case of PEB, many months if I had to m8......and I have. In fact some of my current holding owe me 75c.......been as low as 49c.......still held, no loss by trading out and now back to breakeven (almost). What makes you think sales are going to be sluggish anyway AND why would they be after this latest endorsement??.......have faith young Moose......this "should" be a steady ride north, but naturally no guarantees. Ive traded for years but find it stressful most of the time (shall I sell, shall I buy..??)....always looking for the beginnings of a steady improver to avoid the pitfalls of trading.........I believe PEB may just be that stock (now). Dont get caught without it mate........JUST MY OPINION.
Heres hoping it pays a dividend:)
Being a bit slow on the uptake another thing has occurred to me regarding today's announcement regarding first sales. Its not like going to the dairy and getting a loaf of bread and maybe going back later to get another one in six months. They have bought it, they have used it, are presumably happy with it, and will continue to use it, recommend it to their colleagues,etc, until something better comes along, (if that's possible). To my mind this indicates that every initial sale to a group or individual clinician will lock in 5 years of growth in clientele with hopefully the majority saved from a dreadful demise, ( my father died of it) and continuing to be tested.
Wow, what a saga, what a road we will go down with this company, somebody will write a book about this one day - just hope I'm here to read it
Sorry, too much going on, clearing done.
NZ Herald today
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11142562
Refer http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post429730
What has changed since then?
1) They have confirmed U.S. sales
2) Their product seems to be gaining traction with the industry
3) The risk of being blocked by major pharmaceutical companies appears to have diminished somewhat
4) The risk of running out of cash before this all took off appears to have evaporated seeing as they are expecting a profit next year!
5) Publicity is starting to ramp up with recent awards etc. And with users starting to benefit from the product I think the publicity will only grow.
When pricing companies shareprice, the market is supposedly forward thinking. My conservative future valuation was $1.50. Many on this thread have the plausible theory that institutions wanted to see meaningful sales before buying. But I would suggest that by this time it will be too late to make the big gains.
Bear in mind this research was based upon CX Bladder only! They have other products along a similar line already under development!!!
I would suggest at $0.72 PEB is still a steal.
DYOR! But that's my 72 cents worth.
NBT
Do we have any medical professionals out there who could advise if this is also likely to be the case in the US medical industry?
I'm sure this would happen with likes of a more generic product like panadol etc etc, but surely for a more advance product they would find it harder to block.
Snapiti, I would hope that with peoples health/lives at risk, it might be a bit harder for them to block it in this manner. Especially if insurance companies can see a better product at a cheaper price, then I would imagine they would demand its use.
NBT
Thanks for sharing excellent research/ summary NBT. It is a bewildering market that seems to be capable of ignoring the obvious here. Just wait and enjoy the ride I guess, cannot see why it should not all happen now.
NBT.....I think you'll find some sort of common-sense will prevail in the end anyway. "People-Power" driven by the masses will force their hand (to run with the better and cheaper alternative, Cx Bladder). What do we all do these days when faced with a medical situation?......first call, jump on-line. The info is all there for us now and we go to our GPs well informed of the choices. I somehow doubt all American GPs are painted with the same brush (purely dollar driven) and there will many many doctors (if not most) who genuinely seek out the best treatments for their clients regardless of pseudo loyalties. As far as costs go, well what a great starting point to be able to offer a proven alternative at about 1/3 cost.......Insurance co's are just going to love that.......that's only going to translate to bigger profits/margins for them. I think we can rest assured this is going to be a huge success story for PEB and agree 72c is now looking like a "gift''. I would not be at all surprised to see the SP double in under 12 mnths.
Many thanks to the posters on this forum, it has been a great aid with the learning curve on the share market. Having dipped a toe into the arena a few months ago I have checked back on this post at random intervals. Thursday afternoon I dropped in, caught the news and promptly bought some more shares in PEB at 68c. It may jump up and down a bit in the short-term but it will be very interesting to see what the share price is a year from now. :)
I really think - regardless of insurer, supplier or GP bias - that patients with a camera inserted up their relevant body parts will provide the requisite push for CXBladder.
I’d previously allowed for PEB to break even in HY15, and thus this guidance today in the NZ Herald, although unexpected, is good news. Not only does it demonstrate management confidence but reaffirms again progress on the five year curve toward US $100M.
On this basis I’ve rerun my models and have increased the FY14 valuation I made back in May from $1.25 to $1.40. I’m holding my FY16 valuation at $5.00 for now.
Interestingly, looking at the sensitivities on the prospective HY14 result, I don’t believe a slightly low or high result will have a great deal of bearing on the fundamental valuation. The prospective forward free cash flows ramp so quickly that this next report is of not great importance numerically.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11142562
Yes totally agree with this too Snapiti.
As for why anyone is selling, I agree, they're crazy. As Moosie says, there's probably a lot of traders trading out and taking big gains, however IMHO they're only halfway there, if that! Their loss is our gain however.
Will be interesting to see if the Herald article attracts much wider attention. Hopefully not as I still want to top up more over the next while!
I would consider myself more of a 'trader' but couldn't bring myself to sell on Friday, despite the 30% gain. I was really impressed with how well the price held up despite the number of traders/investors booking some profit. There is some serious resistance at 75cps, but if this is broken, well it's all blue sky from there. It needs some really strong buying volume to 'push through' the resistance. I will be watching with interest next week.
thats your problem there. That's why the deal with that large US org is good - they are big enough not to be influenced
Likewise Pharmacy in NZ doesn't face the issues you have due to its buying power. They may have to discount a bit to land the big boys but that will be based on volume, so not a major issue and I am sure that is factored in by Management - they seem to know what they are doing.
Disc: looking for spare cash to accumulate on my small holding.
First profit in 2014? Are they pushing hard enough - Rod Drury wouldn't even consider earning a profit if he was in charge!
Let's get that second and third product into testing and approvals!
I'm trading off fundamentals but also off technicals, and have observed that not only was Friday's low of 67c lower than Thursday's low of 68c, but also that historically (twice this year) there has been confirmed resistance at 75c.
Last Friday, I sold some of my parcel sitting at 74 when someone/something bought 100k. I have since put a bid in at 68c. This way I take profit after a three day rise, and if I can pick up another parcel at 68c on Monday, I've caught the next wave.
That's my plan, but of course like surfin', one doesn't always catch the very next wave. No matter, I'm a patient surfer...and it sure beats standing knee-deep by the shore watching the waves coming in and out like a spectator.
BC
Hi all,
In the event some of us forum readers haven't been on the US bladder cancer forum to read the latest musings about CX here is the link; http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladde...page=1#replies
In my opinion, very good feedback... the poster that assumes CXbladder costs more than cytoscopy but would still rather use it gave me a chuckle. I also think it shows just how proactive patients can be on following and pushing these things with their doctors. Maybe I should top up :eek2:
Here's a nice collection of recent media appearances for Pacific Edge.
FedMed signing, Commercial sales milestones, Innovation awards... yeah, pretty good week.
http://www.watchinga.com/pages/cxbladder.html#_
Anyone got any idea's on what's going to happen next week?
Although the announcement on friday had no solid numbers i think there should have been a better reaction which i think was quashed a little bit by end of week profit taking etc, so am hoping their is a catch up rise on monday. Which is why i decided not to sell on Friday afternoon. Although then again the announcement could have been an attempt to keep the share price rising?
Think that maybe the whole lot got swallowed by Drury and Xero carryon.
Look to the future but always look behind as well, there may be something better coming.
I'm still musing over David Darling's comment in the ODT:
I'm thinking either:Quote:
Overseas investor interest has been picking up. It's a different quantum of money over here and really could throw up all sorts of options for us
- They could be looking at getting a significant cash injection from the US to really ramp up the sales force for CxBladder even more and fast track the development and commercialisation of the further CxBladder tests and CxColorectal. Not necessarily a bad idea - maybe Mr Darling has been talking to Rod? :p
- There could be interest in an acquisition of PEB.
- Maybe I'm over-thinking it?
Yeah it makes you think doesn't it.... my first thought, already posted, was that he could do a XRO and gather up some USD to speed things up over there. The kind of money that could be available in the US might mean they can fast forward the 5 years plan somewhat. As others have previously said, I would be surprised if after all these years and the commitment to the product that Darling would accept a takeover bid so close to crossing the finish line. So option 1 is where I'd put my money.
Thanks Hancocks, always great to see you post. Congrats on your well deserved success with PEB. You took the time to understand it, have stuck to your convictions and have helped many of us along the way. Cheers
Thank you Hancocks for your most informative posts. I support you totally. I am very pleased to have an investment in a company that is not only set up to make money, but has a very powerful humanitarian base, and as such my major shareholding is in for the long haul. Yes, the 'feel good' factor..... But I have no doubt that ultimately this company has every prospect of succeeding, and even outlasting any IT company.
Producing a 'product' that is more accurate than its 'rivals', and at a very much lower cost, with a built in 'comfort factor'..... hard to ignore!
We await the sudden infux of ex xero traders finding something to their liking that has a good chance of emulating what has gone on before and exceeding it. Xero to 54..00 PEB to 1.44 -no contest
Anyone been looking at the charts or have any predictions on what sort of price action we might see tomorrow - am wanting to top up my modest holding and wondering whether I sit tight and be patient or "get on the train at whatever cost" ? Have done my own FA and am definitely in for the long haul on this one, would just prefer to time an entry point if possible
Too tough to call. The market is wanting to push this one higher, however there is at least two large sellers around (one of which being ACC I believe) and also the traders booking profits. There may be a few days of hovering around 68 or so where they sell off the amount they want. It may also just go on another charge up. My sell signals which are usually pretty reliable (but not always of course) for a sudden rise like this are still a fair distance from being triggered, although that can all change pretty quick. Your best bet is to just get a gauge of the market tomorrow and see what direction it's going.
Disc: PEB is my largest long term holding.
I don't see why the rise won't continue this week. Long term, the only direction is up. There will be some fluctuation along the way - like you say, as the likes of ACC take their profits - but I think the trend will be heading northward. I was buying in the 50s and 60s, bought some more at 71 as I really like the long term prospects of this company.
There has been some really good press about PEB in the past few days, so my pick is that all the attention will encourage some more investors to jump in, and support a further rise tomorrow.
Bit early to tell but some nice depth. Lots of buyers lining up. Looks like another good day :)
What.! 75c now...I have to modify my buy order again
And 200000 support at 74. Still looking very strong.
I did a wee re-balance of my portfolios on Friday afternoon including selling down my PEB holding - bought back into PEB at 73 this morn. Keen to see how things play out. MACD away.
Next 2 bands look like 78 and 80c
ASB Securities running very slooooowww today... wonder if PEB is contributing to the hammering it must be taking currently heh
This is very much being controlled by the big boys right now I'd say. There are large buyers and large sellers both trying to get the best price.
You mean no regrets right moosie? From memory Didn't you exit just before announcements on friday at 70c? I was so close too doing it as well.
You should have just bought and held - let winners run!
Mind sharing what this other stock is ?
Try harder I want to buy more lol
I reckon there are just too many profit focused traders for now. A little more research by the masses and this will look cheap.
I couldn’t disagree more.
Growth stocks are typically undervalued between capital raising and commercialisation, this is due to the market conservatively and appropriately making an allowance for risk. As time goes by the company incrementally sheds risk and the SP will rise toward fundamental de-risked valuations.
PEB has shed an enormous amount of risk in the last six months and what we are seeing is a step response in the share price as traders had capped the SP at 0.61c for all of that time.
At 0.78c PEB is still well undervalued, provided PEB remain on track against their US$100M target, this is just the beginning of a multi year trend.
Not at all.
As you and I and the market are aware, we should not expect more than a handful of US sales at HY14, as there was only a three month sales contribution from 1st July through to the end of the reporting period at September's end, and we all know sales staff were in training, learning about the technology and making new industry relationships.
I would be really impressed, as I've said before, with 200 US sales, in this period.
It's the forward growth that is important from this point. I was very pleased with David Darlings comments over the weekend stating that PEB should achieve profitability in 2014, his previous advice at the time of the AGM was 2015.
This led me to update my models, I now value PEB at FY14 $1.40 up from $1.25 as I had in May.
I must admit, I see the moose as the contrarion investor on here... a week ago suggesting a SP of 40cps. No offence intended moosie.
I am really happy with where things are at although will be watching the SP carefully this week. Somehow PEB has ended up as my biggest investment. I am definitely not interested in selling at present. The SP will move around a bit this week as the instos try to value it.
Sounds like moose shooting season is open.....
Geez the PEB thread doesn't stay happy for long does it - come on guys, enjoy the volatility :)
A young trader ..day in and day out... can take profit on just one cent...nothing wrong but his words can only been used as a tool not advice
Either he is genuine or using scare tactics to indulge himself to the profit.
Anyway, enough of him, I think few weeks time there might be flow of big overseas funds in this one.
I've been watching PEB from the sidelines for nearly a year now (since the last spike in Dec), clearly the right time to get in was last week, unfortunately for me, but the long game has some big numbers attached to it if everything goes their way. We've still not hit the 52 week high of .79 on this run, anyone think it'll hit that before pullback or pullback before breaching?
Got dropbox or similar? Can usually upload and then leave a public link.