Originally Posted by
Stranger_Danger
With the greatest of respect, I'm not sure you understand Sky TV as well as you think you do. You may understand it as a company, a balance sheet, a management team, all of these things in and of themselves, but the key to how this investment is performing and will likely turn out is to understand Sky TV in relation to the world around it.
When I've raised piracy options, you typically respond to it as a moral issue. And as a moral issue, you win, piracy is stealing etc etc.
But, instead of seeing it as a moral issue, have you had a crack at exploring this alternative way to obtain content? Have you tried streaming, torrenting, installed Kodi or similar? Got hold of an Android phone, downloaded the apps that give you, for free, a vast ocean of on demand content at a price point Sky can never match - zero.
Have you taken the time to see how teenagers use a mobile phone? Watched how 5 year olds make their way around a tablet instinctively? Seen the confused look when a kid is visiting their grandma and 5 different people are watching this big box in a room, the timing of the content chosen by someone miles away they've never met, and their varied tastes meaning that 4 of them aren't watching what they want to watch?
If a man from mars came to Earth knowing nothing, and all he wanted was the widest range of content, available on the widest range of platforms, before even considering cost (once he considers cost, things get much worse for Sky obviously), do you honestly think, even with price not a consideration, the answer he'd land on is Sky TV?
Look, I see myself as a deep value investor. I've watched it all the way down. I've nearly bought the damn thing. By any fundamental valuation measure, it has looked cheap for a long time.
The answer isn't to look deeper at Sky TV. The answer is to look away, and look at the rest of the world, and how it has changed.
At best, you're in a business of collecting money from lazy, old people until they die. At best. Is that really the business you want to be in?
Go and talk to a hundred eighteen year olds going flatting. In my circle, back in the dark ages, there was a list of essentials - bed, stereo, couch, TV....Sky subscription.
Talk to the equivalent circle, a hundred eighteen year olds today. How many will sign up with Sky? My guess is zero.