You mean the CRIMEX - like they usually do . . . :mad:
A few bullish signs today USDX is down below 84 - I'm hopeful for some positive action. :D
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A stellar performance last night Dr. It was an important session, I would not want to see gold move back below $800 lest that stall the next push through $1k.
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Posted: Jan 16 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 16, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Gold was the recipient of “reflation” flows as money flowed back into the commodity sector today on news that the remaining $350 billion in the TARP was going to be released. That served to undercut safe haven flows into the dollar and definitely into the bonds, with commodities as a sector generally benefiting. As I wrote the other day, if you don’t like the current investor sentiment, stick around a day or so, it will flip 180 degrees and then do that same thing again a few days after that. Perhaps next week we go back to deflation paranoia. Who knows and who really cares at this point since all that matters in these markets is money flows – nothing else.
From a technical perspective gold bounced exactly where it needed to bounce in order to keep the technical charts from deteriorating. It did however run exactly into overhead resistance in today’s rally where it was summarily capped by the usual crowd. The bulls have dodged a bullet and deserve credit for their performance and grit but they need to force the shorts out of their defense line at $840 to give them a shot at $860. They are attempting to do that even as I write this commentary. Hats off to those fund managers who actually bought into the weakness in gold for a change instead of selling downward momentum.
Attachment 1177
While it is a bit difficult to see on the 12 hour chart, gold has actually been forming a reverse head and shoulders chart with one shoulder near $750 in early September 2008 and the head near the $700 level in late October and early November. The last shoulder and this is ONLY A POTENTIAL shoulder is the low made yesterday. To confirm this, gold would need to break out above the $880 level in a convincing fashion. That once again serves to underscore the significance of that pesky $880 level. For now, resistance stands at today’s high near $840 followed by stronger resistance between $855- $860. Support remains just above the $800 level.
The mining shares as indicated by the HUI and the XAU bounced off the 50 day moving averages and are now running into resistance near their down-trending 10 day moving averages. The HUI is attempting to climb back above broken support near the 266 level but is encountering difficulty with the broader equity markets sinking back into negative territory. The XAU’s chart is actually better looking than that of the HUI as it managed to climb back above broken support near the 107 level but it too has run into selling in the zone between the falling 10 and 20 day moving averages at today’s session high.
Grains are all strongly higher today with Argentina’s drought news putting a firm bid under the soybean market which is effectively pulling wheat and corn along for the ride. That move in the grains has my attention as they have been tracking closely with gold’s overall performance.
Crude oil is lower today after violating support yesterday near the $35 level which makes the rally in some of the other commodities all the more noteworthy. I do hope that we are reaching the point where these various markets begin to trade on their own set of fundamentals rather than the mindless idiocy we have had to sit through watching index funds and hedge funds spit them all out en masse or buy them all up en masse. Crude needs to get above $40 in the February to have a shot at a bottom being formed.
Bonds had collapsed at one point today when the stock market was moving higher and safe haven flows abruptly reversed but as the equity markets faded and crude moved lower, the bonds began moving well off their lows. Judging from last evening’s Federal Reserve Custodial Accounts data, foreign Central Banks continue to GORGE themselves on US Treasury paper while continuing their exodus from US agency debt. As long as this FCB bank buying of Treasuries continues in such size, it is difficult to see the collapse of the bond market bubble occurring anytime soon. It will collapse however and when it does, the sound will be heard around the world as it will occur very quickly.
The dollar was stymied up between the 86 – 85 level which is the former support region from October and November of last year. Technically it looks like a failure to climb back above the 86 level quickly and the Dollar is headed back to 82 with a possible test of 80 occurring.
Click the link below to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...d1230pmcdt.pdf
Not even a dead cat bounce for the banks. Yesterday the Dow rallied back some 200 points and the banks could only make the sound of a thud. Citi is breaking up [as if two bankrupts are better than one], Bank [owned by] America needs $20 billion not the $10 they were talking about yesterday and JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and GE are all plumbing new lows. We are at the breaking point and something needs to be done very soon.
I believe the solution will involve a market closure and bank holiday.
Along with these closures will be the famed "force majeur" for the metals markets, this will be mandatory because of JP Morgan's short exposure. I have made the "musical chair" analogy many times in the past, I think we are now VERY close. When the light switch is flipped you will have what you have and movement will be frozen. After however long it takes to "reopen", the worlds' "values" will not be recognizable, huge gaps will have happened while no one could make portfolio changes. The current portfolio manager wisdom is "I will sell or hedge 5 minutes before the bomb hits the ground", I don't think so Tim.
Both the U.S. and Britain are no longer publishing money supply numbers so no one can see how egregious they are with printing more paper. The whole mess stinks from head to toe, the world has turned into one gigantic ENRON! All currencies are fraudulent which makes everything we do and touch also fraudulent by association. Government economic numbers have been bogus, income and asset reporting by corporations has been fraudulent, Ponzi schemes have popped up everywhere, and of course all the way down to individuals, we have seen lying to receive loans. Even the Roman Gods must be blushing at what we are being fed on a daily basis.
When all is said and done, the rush into metals as wealth protection will be unlike any panic ever seen in history. I have become more and more sure of this as each fraudulent event larger than the last has surfaced. The panic into metals will be caused by the "what can I trust mentality". This event is very close, as I believe that when it comes to anything finance, YOU CAN NO LONGER TRUST ANYTHING! I know this sounds a bit paranoid but given everything we have been told and fed for the last 18 months [actually much longer], everything has turned out to be 180 degrees off. When history is written about the current episode, fraud will probably be the most commonly used word. Physical Gold is no fraud, it never has been and is an honest island in middle of the current cesspool. The masses will seek haven!
Regards, Bill Holter
via Le Metropole
Looks like a H&S with the action testing the neckline now.
Now, if it cant break through, the first target could be
somewhere in that circle. The line through the circle is
a possible area of support from old consolidation and
resistances.
......which in turn could create a bull Gartley meaning the action
could then head back to test the bear flag lower line......
Theres another possible H&S, but you might be able to
figure that one out on the lower flag line
.........crystal ball games :)
.
Thanks for the TA Arco.
The Latest US Banking Crisis
"We cannot remember the start of any year since the US Dollar and Gold were divorced in 1971 when more people were more "bullish" on the prospect for Gold over the year to come. It is disquieting, to say the least."
Sure enough. By Thursday, January 15, the spot future price of Gold in New York was down to $US 807.70 - nearly $US 80 below the $US 884.30 level where it had started the year less that two weeks before. Then came the BIG upward bounce on January 16. We have yet to see an instance where an upsurge in publically "bullish" sentiment by mainstream financial analysts towards Gold has not led very quickly to a drop in the Gold price. This one has been no different. What we do not yet know is if Gold has "finished" its correction yet. Sure, the spot future price jumped $US 32.60 on January 16, but don't forget that it began the week with a fall of $US 34.00.
It would seem that as "volatility" calms down to some extent in the paper markets in the lead up to the "changing of the guard" at the White House next week, Gold becomes more volatile.
Next Tuesday, January 20, Mr Obama becomes the President of the United States. This weekend, and it is a long weekend in the US with Monday, January 19 being the Martin Luther King Holiday, the US Treasury is working around the clock once again trying to shore up a banking system which is once again coming apart at the seams.
Meanwhile, financial headlines in the US are becoming more "surreal" by the day. Here's a sample of one, taken at random, reporting on the stock market action on Wall Street on January 16 - Wall Street Rebounds After Banks Report Big Losses.
If your memory stretches back that far, you will remember the halcyon days of the "dot com" bubble at the end of the 1990s when the bigger the loss reported, the higher the stock price went. The difference back then was that none of the "dot coms" were too big to fail, so they all did. If you doubt it, get hold of a ten-year NASDAQ chart and take a look at it. The banks, on the other hand, clearly ARE too big to fail. Hence the "Wall Street rebound". The reasoning goes like this: "Since the banks are too big to fail, the government will continue to bail them out. Since the government will continue to bail them out, they are 'safe'. Government bailouts always work, they HAVE to work, the banks are too big to fail."
What is lost in this little circle of reasoning is a rather important point. The banks in question have ALREADY failed. The proof of this resides in the hundreds of $US Billions which has already been injected into them, in the eradication of official interest rates by the Fed, and in the current frantic activity of the Treasury to set up a "bad bank" which will take over the "illiquid" (read worthless) "assets" from the books of these same banks.
The reason why the commercial banking system in the US and in every other "developed" nation is essential (too big to fail) to the government is the essential services they provide in perpetuating the fiat money system. In any system based on full "faith and credit" - AND NOTHING ELSE - the credit will flow just as long as the faith is maintained. Banks can happily go about their business stockpiling government IOUs as "reserves" and creating new money out of thin air in ever increasing quantities by "crediting" it to their customers' accounts. Mr Bernanke and Mr Paulson are of one mind and one voice in proclaiming at every opportunity that (to qoute Mr Bernanke this week) - "our economic system is critically dependent on the free flow of credit."
This is quite literally true. Mr Bernanke's (and Mr Obama's when he takes office next week) economic system IS critically dependent on the free flow of credit. The days when money was brought into existence by crude coin "clipping" or printing are long gone. Modern money creation methods are almost totally dependent on inducing people to borrow and spend, and the banks are the vital middlemen in this process. The problem for the government is acute when their banking system can no longer perform this vital function. As such a situation worsens, the "responsibility" for borrowing new money into existence falls more and more directly on the government. Hence Mr Bernanke's lowering of official US rates to ZERO last month. Hence the just announced US government budget deficit of $US 485.2 Billion for the first THREE MONTHS of fiscal 2009. Hence the widely rumoured plans that the Fed will start to directly buy US Treasury debt paper (thereby monetising it) as early as next week.
What financial and monetary officials in the US (and almost everywhere else) are in the process of doing is acting to destroy the viability of their "money" in an attempt to rescue their banks - the conduit for getting their "money" into circulation without having to actually "print" it. The end result of their actions will be a destruction of the money as a viable medium of exchange and there is, as yet, nothing on the horizon to suggest they are going to stop.
In such circumstances, those who foresee a "good year for Gold" are certainly doing so on very good grounds indeed. The gyrations in the Gold price this week is just one more indication that the ultimate choice about what to use as money is getting closer. So are the desperate measures now being publically discussed by Treasurers and central bankers everywhere. And next Tuesday, it all lands on Mr Obama's desk.
gold shaping up for a short
risk defined at 890 , possibly close to printing wave 2 before wave 3 takes gold much lower.
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Posted: Jan 20 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 20, 2009 at 6:54 pm
Several noteworthy events occurred today which impacted gold trading in the US. First and most importantly were developments along the currency front. The British Pound was utterly mauled as news came out that the Royal Bank of Scotland had incurred the largest loss in British corporate history. If that was not bad enough, shares of Lloyds Banking Group fell by nearly 50% at one point in today’s trading as the market greeted the Bank of England’s rescue plan for the banks and the economy with a resounding THUD. The fear is that interest rates are falling to near zero and that the British economy is in horrific shape. Investors are also looking at the details of the rescue plan and are voicing concerns as to how this massive increase in debt is ever going to be repaid. Sound familiar?
News of continued downgrades in sovereign nation debt in and around the Eurozone sent the Euro into the toilet as it dropped to its lowest level since early December last year.
Now those of us who have been accustomed to watching the action of gold on a daily basis would have generally expected gold to drop alongside of the Euro especially as the Dollar went on another of its rip-roaring short squeezes amid panic buying. However, something happened related to this currency movement that caused a complete reversal of the norm. Gold in Sterling terms shot to a brand new all time high at the London PM Fix coming in at 612.307 while Gold priced in Euro terms came in at 661.383 coming in just shy of its all time high PM Fix of 663.352 made back in October of last year. Gold traders in New York looked over at that and decided that they needed to get out if they were short or get in if they were out! In other words, what looks to be a genuine flight to the safety of gold has begun in Europe. And why not? With US Treasuries paying next to nothing and several European nation government bonds being downgraded, where else can those who are fearful of what is occurring go with their life’s savings? If I were a bond holder and looked ahead at the plethora of new debt being issued, supply of such magnitude that the numbers send the mind reeling, I would seriously doubt that demand would be able to keep up with it.
What we are seeing is gold trading as a currency – something that has repeatedly been echoed at this site now for years especially in the face of repeated deflationist claims that gold would sink alongside of the rest of the commodity world. Keep this important fact in mind. Gold is a currency; it is only a commodity when there is general trust in paper money. Any fears or concerns about the stability or trustworthiness of any fiat currency will send money scurrying into gold. It is now evident that is occurring in Europe. It WILL OCCUR here in the US at some point in the not too distant future.
The second noteworthy item affecting gold was the price action in the expiring February crude oil contract. After dropping to a new yearly low, it rebounded sharply taking out the previous day’s highs as shorts began covering and bottom pickers began moving in. One day does not a trend make but I am keeping a very close eye on this market as crude oil, whether we like it or not, has become a sort of barometer for the rest of the commodity complex as a whole. Higher crude prices would only serve to bring in additional buying support into the gold market.
Technically gold blasted through two overhead resistance areas with seemingly little to no opposition. The first one at $840 was gone without gold breaking a sweat; the latter zone near $860 also was breached as buy stop momentum carried prices through it sending the shorts reeling before bullion bank selling came in and managed to suck up all the bids and drop it back below this level. The inability of gold to close strongly above the $860 level reinforces it as a significant barrier with $880 still lurking above that as the opposition to a move to the $1000 level. Support lies now at $840 and then below that near the $820 level.
The mining shares, as indicated by the HUI and the XAU, showed a very strong disconnect from the broader US equity markets which went one way (down) while they went the other (up). Both indices have recaptured the 10 and 20 day moving averages after a perfect bounce off of the 50 day moving average last week. This is quite bullish action with the next barrier to both indices their former double tops make back in late December and early January of this year. Expect to see shorts try to hold the line there for if they fail, a trending action will be highly likely.
It is difficult for me to see where the buying came from that pushed the Dollar higher seeing that Treasuries were hit hard while equities were also taken down sharply. If anyone was busy running into the US Dollar as a safe haven play, I sure did not see it.
Bonds are weaker today after getting hit hard overnight but seem to be holding above the session low with continuing weakness in equities supportive.
Click link below to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...d1230pmcdt.pdf
I dunno dumbass. You can count all the waves you want but I think people (especially in the UK right now) are losing faith in the banking system, that means they are wanting to hold REAL MONEY . . . have you seen the results for the big banks during the first 20 days of 2009? Looks like the banks are taking their final dying breath. How long before the rush to the exits starts in the US?
Bank of America -77%
Wells Fargo Bank -60%
Citigroup -39%
JP Morgan -58%
Barclays -42%
Deutsche Bank -52%
This is on top of last years MASSIVE loss of market cap.
We are getting closer to a total collapse of the financial system.
Got gold?