Originally Posted by
TheHunter
It appears some thought MCP vol was a jack and bean stalk situation, rather than a multi year process ;)
I completely agree regarding mgmt., and have expressed this on the thread a few times. There is definitely negative sentiment attached to ARB and its price, and for good reason. That said, one can argue this is discounted in the price already, which may become an opportunity if they can finally deliver.
I have some comfort on delivering given 85% of available MCP seedlings effectively already sold out (per recent announcement). That said, there is still various supply side risks (weather events, SC issues, inflation, economic growth, etc.), and do agree mgmt. could do more to cut costs and optimize ARB as a standalone company.
To flog a broken record to death, the strategy is all on MCP vol from 2023 onwards. The misses to date sure are disappointing. However, in my opinion to focus on these and to ignore the future MCP volume is misunderstanding the whole strategy and the business itself.
I will happily hold my hand up in a couple of years time and say I was wrong if this all goes to s*** but I (somehow) have some faith in this time being different. The risk reward skew if you run the numbers is attractive to me.
(And of course; DYOR).