I agree with 90% of that.
"and the NZD has fallen back to US 60 cents."
WTF? You're looking wayyy down the track for that to happen
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Hey if the options are converted there will be a dilution but the company will also approx have an additional 75c a share in cash! I think the original options were issued free on a 1:2 basis plus the 1:10 early 2007 so its not all bad?
Arjay - the Herald announcementment estimates 10,000 of 12,000 are retail investors so I guess that reinforces my view that the mum & das are already in the stock?
Share price has passed my cent a day line today. Up 29c since the year's low of 101, just 20c to go now to hit 150.
The cent-a-day line hits 150 on April 1st.
(Bah! How do I get my image to be there all the time, like Phaedrus does? It's a nice little graph, made it myself, I did)
It's now the end of the first month since some of us felt a likely trend would be a 1c per day rise. We've had 19 trading days and the price has gone from 107c to 130c. We really need to discount the new price somewhat, since it includes the 5c divi. So lets say ex ex-div price of 125c.
18c rise in 19 days.
If this trend continues, we get to 150c around mid-May. Midyear price around 180c.
Lion good call on your cent a day.NZO was so and is still so undervalued that you just might get it to 1-80 or even 2 dollars. We should all keep in mind that TUI has had to pay off all carried forward tax loses,as well as support the other two developing projects ,then generate sufficent cash flow to pay a dividend. All this in 5 months. So when the market finally sees that in the next 6 months the company will be able fund a bigger end of year dividend as there is no more tax losses to write off. The only offsetting here is that TUI water cut should gradually increase but hopefully stay somewhere near 40000 per day. The image that NZO can deliver is slowly sinking in.
So Lion your cent a day is still achievable for some time yet.
Also note that in Dec i guessed NZO at 1-30 by end of January. Out by one month.
I think you are 6 to 12 months early - but yes big money - first coal is July - My guess is the transport chain needs to be filled & some coal delivered before the big $ arrives.
Of course with macdunks big bang dec 08 then certain recession, coal price down, aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaadonk
What a wondeful February.
I miised out on cheap options but at the end i have lost anything. The sudden sp rise has been a little surprising really. Most of us new the fundamentals were there but it has seemed to take wile for investors to pick up on this good thing. All info has been out in the public domain and the only real surprise is the divvy. Some mentioned that if they want the options converted then they shouldnt announce a divvy. My opinion is it shows investors the nzo is a cash cow with plenty more revenue to come. Its a confidence booster and judging by the sp movement others seem to agree.
Now Macdunk. Since you have been burnt by NZO, you have tried to unreasonably tkae other nzo holders with you. bbeeeeeepppp. wrong answer my friend. others are smarter than you and have seen the bigger piicture.
Remember our little debate about your silly, unrealistic 5% trailing stop loss. buy at 1.10..up to 1.17 then get kicked out at 1.11. Holders enjoy about a 20% gain over that 1 month period while you made less than 1% profit.This is the downside of 2 bit traders like yourself who dont have a solid game plan. Meanwhile the longer term holders dont care about 1, 2 or 3 month drops or 1, 2 or 3 year stagflation. Now what we have is most short, medium and long term holders are creaming it while the short term traders are losing..
Now back to nzo rather than MD. History will show that profit takers will come in and knock the sp down even up to 100% of the initial gain. Although i expect some profit taking, this rise seems based on fundamantles and we could have some way to go before nzo sp runs out of steam. Personally i wont be surprised if we get a retracement back to 1.15 to 1.20 but as i have mentioned before, i dont care about the movements, i wil only care on what i sell nzo for.
If NZO wanted some money for some possible aquisition then okay , I might go along with you.
But if they want to maximise value it would be better to wait until production was at maximum in about 2 years time.
Coal will have gone even higher and Port Darylymple's infrastructure ( Queensland bootleneck ) wont have been completed.
PRC is a big story.
Another stock seriously undervalued by sentiment.