Some sizeable buys occurring, more than just speculators it would appear unless they have far more speculative cash than me, which is of course quite likely
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Advantage of having sizeable funds as you can toy with the SP to some degree. Push it a little in one direction. Then throw a lot on to sell again once vol builds up reciprocally and then do the reverse. The risk lays if an update of news comes out they might be stuck in one or other position. Can see now sell volume has swelled at 0.53. Then will see the reverse buy vol will swell around the 50 mark again. Using it to drive their bids and sells, when you have enough surplus stock and funds is the only way to be able to do that with any real effect. Not for the smaller traders of course.
No further news on Novitas?
Anyone feeling confident enough to be buying in at current SP with the silence since negative previous news? Or will we see a gradual degradation of SP until we hear otherwise. And if the 'otherwise' is unfavourable then a drop below last dip.... Thoughts team ?
I'm finding this whole situation is difficult to get my head around. Back in July 2020, CMS themselves said they would fund CXB tests where medically necessary. This was a massive milestone for PEB and CMS was noted as being about 40% of their revenue. As time marches on we essentially see every study into CXB confirming it's accurate in detecting bladder cancer. The latest study indicating that it detected the presence of bladder cancer 100% of the time (I think the way it was worded was along the lines of a clear CXB test meant 100% you did not have bladder cancer). That's gotta be good news and good for the patient too presenting with haematuria to have a non invasive test like this to determine if further investigation is needed. Roll on 2 years later and Novitas, not CMS themselves but their funding administrator releases a draft document saying they will drop funding for CXB. No rationale for why and seemingly without justification nor without any apparent decision by CMS themselves, the actual entity paying for the coverage. PEB's response is almost shock that this draft LCA has been released after explicit agreement 2 years earlier to cover CXB and an excellent track record of CXB's efficacy both before hand and after. Doesn't seem to make any sense.
Good morning 850man.
There is a lot that doesn’t make sense happening in the US! With regard to the slow adaptation of CxB I have wondered for some time that it may have been better to have marketed this in other health jurisdictions? The US is pervaded with self interest groups hindering science and good policy in general e.g. the pandemic and gun control. Maybe the PEB reps should wander over their northern border to a more sensible health system and get traction there with a likely resultant flow back south? Meanwhile I am happy to hold and believe science and consumer pressure will put these tests in their rightful place in haematuria and bladder cancer management. If PEB are not already doing so they should be earnestly educating primary care physicians re CxB Triage which as I have said before would have alleviated a lot of my not inconsiderable clinical anxiety re microscopic haematuria “back in the day”.
The devil is in the detail eh. Firstly, I think that you will find that whilst the tests are very useful as an adjunct in certain situations, they are not "medically necessary" in a lot of situations. We have had this discussion before. Medically necessary would suggest inclusion in guidelines and the support of the AUA - CxBladder has neither. Secondly, the bullet proof 100% correct thing is misleading as I think it referred to high grade BC only, the tests do not do so well with lower grade cancer. Too many False positives and more than a few false negatives.
So if the tests are reliable only as an adjunct to cystoscopy, why use them? There is clearly a time in the management of BC that a Urologist will find the test useful but there is still insufficient evidence to suggest meaningful adoption in any part of the clinical pathway.
Just my opinion. Fundamentally, I'm still out. Technically, the gap at 30 cents still a play but I think overpriced at that until we see some meaningful adoption in the way of $, not just hype.
If 0.45 doesn't hold and breaks then pretty quickly will see SP back down to where it dropped with the news, 0.40, been retracing that way.
I know several on this thread have commented their sights are on 0.30. That would only happen if there is confirmation that Novitas/ CMS is not looking good. Until that confirmation SP likely slower decline back down to 0.40 if 0.45 support level doesn't hold. 0.30 isnt out of the question but would take another update of non favourable news. A pretty high risk holding currently!?
Much doom and gloom on this thread. Prior to the novitas news (not a decision yet) all was hunky dory with increasing test volumes and KP integrating CX making clinicians ordering much easier. It would be fair to say that CX is gradually becoming more accepted. Of course then came the novitas announcement and providing PEB have a good argument against any changes then all will be well and PEB investors will all be happy chaps and chapesses again.