Thanks for sharing excellent research/ summary NBT. It is a bewildering market that seems to be capable of ignoring the obvious here. Just wait and enjoy the ride I guess, cannot see why it should not all happen now.
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Thanks for sharing excellent research/ summary NBT. It is a bewildering market that seems to be capable of ignoring the obvious here. Just wait and enjoy the ride I guess, cannot see why it should not all happen now.
NBT.....I think you'll find some sort of common-sense will prevail in the end anyway. "People-Power" driven by the masses will force their hand (to run with the better and cheaper alternative, Cx Bladder). What do we all do these days when faced with a medical situation?......first call, jump on-line. The info is all there for us now and we go to our GPs well informed of the choices. I somehow doubt all American GPs are painted with the same brush (purely dollar driven) and there will many many doctors (if not most) who genuinely seek out the best treatments for their clients regardless of pseudo loyalties. As far as costs go, well what a great starting point to be able to offer a proven alternative at about 1/3 cost.......Insurance co's are just going to love that.......that's only going to translate to bigger profits/margins for them. I think we can rest assured this is going to be a huge success story for PEB and agree 72c is now looking like a "gift''. I would not be at all surprised to see the SP double in under 12 mnths.
Many thanks to the posters on this forum, it has been a great aid with the learning curve on the share market. Having dipped a toe into the arena a few months ago I have checked back on this post at random intervals. Thursday afternoon I dropped in, caught the news and promptly bought some more shares in PEB at 68c. It may jump up and down a bit in the short-term but it will be very interesting to see what the share price is a year from now. :)
I really think - regardless of insurer, supplier or GP bias - that patients with a camera inserted up their relevant body parts will provide the requisite push for CXBladder.
I’d previously allowed for PEB to break even in HY15, and thus this guidance today in the NZ Herald, although unexpected, is good news. Not only does it demonstrate management confidence but reaffirms again progress on the five year curve toward US $100M.
On this basis I’ve rerun my models and have increased the FY14 valuation I made back in May from $1.25 to $1.40. I’m holding my FY16 valuation at $5.00 for now.
Interestingly, looking at the sensitivities on the prospective HY14 result, I don’t believe a slightly low or high result will have a great deal of bearing on the fundamental valuation. The prospective forward free cash flows ramp so quickly that this next report is of not great importance numerically.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11142562
Yes totally agree with this too Snapiti.
As for why anyone is selling, I agree, they're crazy. As Moosie says, there's probably a lot of traders trading out and taking big gains, however IMHO they're only halfway there, if that! Their loss is our gain however.
Will be interesting to see if the Herald article attracts much wider attention. Hopefully not as I still want to top up more over the next while!
I would consider myself more of a 'trader' but couldn't bring myself to sell on Friday, despite the 30% gain. I was really impressed with how well the price held up despite the number of traders/investors booking some profit. There is some serious resistance at 75cps, but if this is broken, well it's all blue sky from there. It needs some really strong buying volume to 'push through' the resistance. I will be watching with interest next week.
thats your problem there. That's why the deal with that large US org is good - they are big enough not to be influenced
Likewise Pharmacy in NZ doesn't face the issues you have due to its buying power. They may have to discount a bit to land the big boys but that will be based on volume, so not a major issue and I am sure that is factored in by Management - they seem to know what they are doing.
Disc: looking for spare cash to accumulate on my small holding.
First profit in 2014? Are they pushing hard enough - Rod Drury wouldn't even consider earning a profit if he was in charge!
Let's get that second and third product into testing and approvals!
I'm trading off fundamentals but also off technicals, and have observed that not only was Friday's low of 67c lower than Thursday's low of 68c, but also that historically (twice this year) there has been confirmed resistance at 75c.
Last Friday, I sold some of my parcel sitting at 74 when someone/something bought 100k. I have since put a bid in at 68c. This way I take profit after a three day rise, and if I can pick up another parcel at 68c on Monday, I've caught the next wave.
That's my plan, but of course like surfin', one doesn't always catch the very next wave. No matter, I'm a patient surfer...and it sure beats standing knee-deep by the shore watching the waves coming in and out like a spectator.
BC