I agree. This is an open forum for all people positive or negative. I hold some, but had to sell some to buy a house. I do hold this stock, but do appreciate Balances views.
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KFL's latest update has them having just fallen out of their top 5 holdings https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/368414, whereas a few days earlier before the major haircut ATM took last week they were in the top 5 at 7%.
In August 2020 when ATM was at its peak of $21.74 their holding was 14%. It looks to me like ostensibly all of the percentage reduction is related to the drop by more than half of ATM's share price since then and therefore looks like many people, (perhaps myself included at some stage), have given Kingfish more credit than they deserve. I know at one point they went on record (think it was December), as saying they had reduced but it doesn't look like on a net basis since August 2020, they let very many go. Hardly any by the looks of it.
Tracking them weekly and within the limits of roundings (like 10% could be between 9.51% and 10.49%) I reckon KFL
- were accumulating April /Nov (A2 share price $20/$14
- Sold about 1 million early December $14/$11
- held through to mid Feb
- Sold some last few weeks - maybe 300k/400k of shares
At November they had over $60m in A2 - now its just over $30m
Also depending on roundings used there is a hint they might have bought a few late last week
That's how I see it anyway
Isn’t it interesting that the guru’s at fisher funds can get it wrong with one of their main holdings dropping 50%, even with all their resources for research and access to management.
Last time I remember them getting it wrong with a large holding was Pumpkin Patch, believe at one stage it was 10%+ of portfolio.
With pumpkin patch they exited pretty quickly. Reported they didn’t meet their STEEPP philosophy and the rest is history (with Pumpkin Patch going bust).
Looks like with ATM they are not selling and as Winner says may even buying a little more. Kingfish invest for the long term and a 1 year blip wouldn’t phase them. Big tick of approval for ATMs future from Fisher funds? And yes they are still guru’s.
Looks about right. Going off vague memory they did mention just after the result last year that they had bought some more and then they sold some late in 2020 on the basis that the daigou recovery hadn't met expectations. That was just before management announced the second big downgrade so clearly they got that info as a result of a company visit.
What I find especially disturbing about this one is that its now clear December sales were extremely weak (hence the huge second downgrade in December) and if Craigs are being reported correctly as saying they've been informed IF sales are down 70% in January as a result of their company visit sometime in February, (this information is not really in the market per se) then when the company says the third downgraded forecast is predicated upon a significant rebound in Q4 sales compared to Q3, (or words to that effect) its clear they are forecasting a really significant rebound in Q4 sales so its clear there is very real risk around the size of that rebound, if any, and management appear to still be taking a very, very optimistic view of their near term prospects. Given their recent inability to forecast anything, (losing credibility at very serious speed), one has to wonder what credibility, if any, one should ascribe to their revised forecast ?
As for Kingfish's skills...well, on average they have beaten the market by a few percent per annum after fees over the last few years so they deserve some credit for that.
Website playing up again...double post.
https://www.fool.com.au/2021/03/01/i...m-share-price/
Bell Porter's view:
"Bell Potter updated its A2 Milk share price target on 25 February to $8.65, which represents a downside of 3% to its share price at the time of writing.
Into this share price target, the broker incorporated A2’s holding of Synlait Milk Ltd (ASX: SM1), a value for the expected upside in China based on projected stockists and sell-through rates, and a value for the US opportunity.
The broker commented that “A2 Milk is by no means cheap, neither is the sector and to a degree the material under performance of A2 Milk reflects this.”