From Craigs recent research note:
CVT made good progress toward these targets in FY21 and following today's result, we upgrade to Overweight with a $4.20 target price, for 6 key reasons: (1) we forecast an NPAT & EPS CAGR of 19% p.a. over the next four years, yet our forecasts still remain well below company targets (see pg 7), and leave CVT's forward P/E multiples vs. growth on our numbers looking modest (20x FY22F and 16x FY23F), (2) CVT has shown good execution toward its targets this result, with critical digital sales lifting an impressive +41% and +37% in CCy terms for China and North America respectively, (3) this sales growth is converting efficiently to margin even despite the increased marketing costs, with net segment contributions from China and North America lifting +25% and +18% CCy, (4) we think segments that are currently struggling (HK, ANZ) will eventually recover as vaccination rates lift and borders reopen, (5) the downside risk from a poor harvest appears capped as a result of CVT's new harvest model - the apiary division broke even despite one of the worst harvests on record (370 tonne honey vs. 700 tonne in pcp and 600 tonne in a normal year), and (6) CVT's balance sheet is in great shape and almost debt free ($4.6m net debt).
Solid FY21 result, strong FY22 guidance issued:
CVT reported NPAT of $9.5m for FY21, which was a touch ahead of CIPe ($8.9m), and much improved on the -$9.7m loss, including impairments, reported in FY20. The company has guided to FY22 EBITDA of $27m-$30m, a 12% lift at the midpoint on the $25.5m reported in FY21. Dividends have been reinstated with 4cps announced for FY21. CVT also signalled an increase in capex going forward (IT spend, plantation manuka, growth initiat