Tower have provided guidance for FY24, FY25 and FY26. They believe that period will deliver an annual increase in Gross Written Premiums of 10 - 15%, which is impressive even if current and ongoing inflation is factored in.
Importantly, they believe the underlying Net Profit After Tax (NPAT), assuming full utilisation of the "large events" allowance in each case, will be in the ranges $22 - 27m in FY24 ( year end 30 September), $40 - 60m in FY25 and $60 - 80m in FY26. I understand that because of past losses no tax will actually need to be paid in cash until FY26, and perhaps only partially in that year. See Southern Lad's post #2013 above for greater clarity.
If achieved ( and the range between the lower and upper figure in each year is necessarily wide, but maybe use the midpoint, so FY24 is $25m, FY25 is $50m and FY26 is $70m ) this is significant change. And the "large events" allowance/provision underpinning this guidance in FY24 is $45m, in FY25 is $50m and in FY26 is $55m. Any unutilised portion of that allowance in any year goes direct to the bottom line. Tower has been obliged to accept larger excesses before catastrophe cover is triggered, to mitigate reinsurance premium costs, but the provisions outlined are generous in relation to historical experience.
Then consider my post #2019 above and the increase in dividend potentially available as a consequence if that NPAT is attained. I think the share price could realistically easily reach $1.50 or even more over that timeframe notwithstanding that some discount needs to be applied for risk inherent in TWR's insurance market-making in an uncertain natural environment as past happenings have demonstrated.