lol there all over on hotcopper , reads like a drunken playlist of eternal hope
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I'm gonna sell my remaining holding on open it seems. Although the report is nowhere as bad as some make us believe the way forward is suddenly clouded by marketing speak and I think management themselves are just pulling figures out of thin air now. I still think it is a worthwhile investment at the right price there's no use going against the negative sentiment at the moment.
Be good if the 3B's could stick to factual commentary that is welcome,rather than enjoying a feeling of schadenfreude.
I am personally a long term holder, but I’m definitely not driven by emotion. I’m trying to approach this as rationally as I can, but I don’t have a huge amount of market experience. The struggle that I am having is that
A) on the one hand the best profits are made by those who have the nerves to hold and buy during company down turns. Buffet famously bought Coca Cola at a time where they were dumping huge amounts of bad product into the ocean somewhere in Asia, as a step towards a product line had failed, management was failing and being replaced etc.
B) But on the other hand I completely understand there is a difference between having nerves and holding onto a dead fish. You need to exit the company when exiting is required.
The difficulty is that for me A2 is dancing between these two. The economic moat for me is their premium brand. They have lots of cash on hand, I don’t see bankruptcy as a risk. The biggest risk is therefore as you all say increasing competition and a loss of the requirement for a ‘premium’ offering by the Asian community. The struggle is for me to exit the company I want to see definitive evidence that the competition is eroding their market share substantially (I would be okay with a small erosion as the market is so large). The trouble is this management, on the basis of their reporting lately, is not going to be very candid about the severity of erosion by competition. The other difficulty is that realising too late that competition is significantly eroding the market share can mean you are taking a much larger loss than if you had taken earlier action on less information. On the counter you risk acting on something that never eventuates.
Therefore as a long term holder, I am going to continue to hold until I see more concrete evidence that competition is absolutely killing A2. Some of the wiser investors in this forum are going to tell me that the evidence is right in front of my face and it’s glaringly obvious, but this is the risk I am taking as an inexperienced investor. We all have to take our lick at some point and learn from it.
And me. Biggest problem today is what price to buy at.