They're probably 'dreaming mate' going forwards :)
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Someone needs to draw a supply demand curve for Mr Foran and explain elastic and inelastic features of flying ie demand is elastic, supply not so much. Hard to use the train/tunnel analogy for an airline. Sadly the Tenerife "Goddamn, that son-of-a-bitch is coming!" comment (apologies for any offence) might describe the AIR NZ CEO/Pilot describing the demand destruction coming down the runway. The AIR team members aren't stupid but it is hard to understand the strategic direction of the airline atm.
Capacity is so low atm that staffs are not even allowed to book a flight using standby tickets I hear. :lol: Little point working for an airline I reckon and I expect more brain drains to follow. Employees have very little loyalty these days and will happily jump ship if better offers are on the table.
In the USA pilots for the bigger companies work for outside contract companies contracted back to the airline
This is only partially true and the reality is more complicated and variable.
But as a f'rinstance, as they were in the news a few days ago, Piedmont Airlines as a regional airline, flies planes and employs aircrew for American Airlines Group but in this case AAG own them.
There is career path from Piedmont to American itself.
Eagle Airways was a fully own subsidiary of Air NZ in a 'similar' manner.
Might well make sense how they derived the arbitrary figure of 0.53 Cap Raise!
Would make sense that SP holds around this level 0.50- 0.53. Surely it cant breach and drop to 0.35 as a few have suggested in this thread!? But who knows they are going to be in the RED for a very long time and no dividends, much less attractive to savvy investors. Demand going out of the sails. Just need to look at SP since Cap Raise. Cant believe people were gullible enough to be buying in at those previous levels. The amazing hyped up buy 2 shares for each one at this bargain discount. Folk buying SP rights. Those who did buy in are now sitting negative to their cost average for sure It was written on the wall SP was going to drop at least to 0.53. Most experienced investors on this thread were all saying the same thing. Hope is a wonderful yet dangerous thing. FOMO I guess encouraged that many people to jump on board, ignoring all the fundamentals of the company and what it faces. Flight tickets are already so much more than they use to be, obviously as the airlines need to try to maximise where they can, and higher fuel costs etc. But with inflation, interest, higher living costs, people won't be able to travel as much as they once did. Travel will become more of a luxury for those who can afford it. There will be less people that can afford it. In New Zealand it's going to be facing these hurdles and challenges for many years ahead. Its not going to be the miracle SP suddenly bounces back up miraculously because our boarders are open. Business fundamentals shouldn't simply be ignored when looking to invest in a company.
Business travel will be one of the keys moving forward. Would see the leisure market much more price driven, but many companies have got by with Zoom, limited domestic travel and next-to-no international travel for the last 2+ years. It may redefine for business what is "necessary", and what is superfluous - especially as prices/costs increase and the economic conditions come under more pressure. No doubt Govt depts will have no problem hopping on a plane....!!
Our company is export-based, and we've done no international travel since the start of Covid - previously maybe $100-120k on international fares (almost all on AIR). We would be pretty regular beforehand, but have got by OK without travel. Going forward, foresee we'll still travel internationally, but travel less, and probably less domestically.
Dead right mate. Digital platforms like Zoom have become a widely accepted, entrenched and safe means of engaging with customers. Business executives don't want the risk of travelling to other countries. A lot of hype went with the "refuel" propaganda. I have never seen so many highly detailed disclaimers and elaborately worded caveats in the fine print as in that capital raise. I suspect many in the Sharsies crowd didn't read the fine print.
To me the capital raise for all intents and purposes looked like a shearing shed. Enter the plane at the front, get all your wool shorn off and sorry about all the blood you lost from the knicks and cuts and exit at the rear. Thanks for coming.
Similar story here. Pre-Covid I used to travel a lot for business - in the 2019/2020 year I spent around $30k with Air NZ. Down to about $3k in the past year, for domestic routes only.
I've been able to keep the majority of my international business without needing to travel (in fact it's easier as now Zoom/Skype is so acceptable, there's no stressing about whether you'll actually get there) and it is so much less hassle. I don't miss in the slightest getting up at 3am to get to the airport for a 6am Sydney flight every couple of weeks.
With borders reopened and testing requirement going away, I will look to do a bit of work travel but nowhere near the same volume (probably once per year per customer, as opposed to every month or so pre Covid). I don't think I would ever want or need to go back to the same degree of travel ... I have so much more spare time and have saved a fortune.
I am eager to do some leisure travel, but that is more price sensitive for me. I will pick Air NZ if the price is reasonable as I like their service, but it does look like Qantas, Jetstar, Emirates etc are providing much better value. I might miss out on the Koru lounge, but that is packed to the rafters and very mediocre these days anyway (and with the savings I can go and get a nice meal in the airport or nearby).
As you say, govt departments will keep Air NZ's business travel afloat. I'm thinking of a relative of mine, who's on their fifth business class trip to Europe (on the public's dime) this year so far, for some "climate change policy" work. Lucky for some, I guess - although I presume that govt departments get a favourable price for travel so maybe it's not so expensive?
Runway 56 .. crash landing narrowly missed
NTA 34.9c EPS -0.267c
Anyone fancy some surface skimming with Covid Air ? .. one wrong turn for a dip in the drink or
spot of window washing so you can see the fish outside better .. :)
The comment about govt travel very interesting and the reason even more so. I have just attending 3 conferences in the US(on my own account). It has prob cost $50t. Not one other kiwi there. The theme? Actual real live energy transition to 2050, electric aircraft development, and EV related innovation. Yesterday I listened to 4 PhDs or students towards employed by NASA amongst other seminars. Earlier in the week I heard transition thoughts. I spoke to a guy that is GMs internal product owner of AI who I had lunch with. Get the picture? Anyway what blows me away is I was the only Kiwi at any of this. Where was anyone from Govt? Where was Air NZ? I am not going to share my thoughts on what I found but some of you guys know what I have been doing. I am going to use this to direct my investment and that of my current and future partners. I have always got value out of these conferences going back to when I was a fund manager(only one from NZ again) back pre GFC. Good luck everyone. PS don't believe what you read about the above stuff in the media. They have absolutely no idea.
Let's hope on Christoper Luxon's watch NZ will do better.:D
Most probably, turnaround in airline industries can be expected only in 2024.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...age-and-queues
1. Who on this thread feels SP will drop back down to 0.53 again?
2. Who feels that dip to 0.53 was the low and will slowly recover from now?
3. Who feels a second bounce off 0.53 will then establish a bottom end trough to then rally a slow recovery rally off?
4. Who feels the low hasn't yet been touched upon?
Maxtrade, I'm not a fan of AIR from an investment point of view and so I'd say 4. The low hasn't been touched on yet. The only problem is that I may be confusing inevitability with imminence. With their high cost structure and increasing fuel costs I can't see demand translating into increased profitability anytime soon. They may well need more capital before Dec 2023. But who knows, short term Biden might say that the US love the Iranians now and there's nothing better than Iranian crude to solve oil demand! It is apparent that AIR have a loyal fan base which may help the share price glide lower over time instead of more rapid declines.
hard deck bounce....
CAP EX on the big revamp... those cabins look good but will they go all the way to CPH (Copenhaven) or just LAX.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdHBsWXaHN8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46rnghQxjxk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMbbg0k4Xeo
I had to laugh. The big Idea is bunk beds ?? What a dud.
You mean you don't fancy waiting your turn for some sweaty sleep pod?
Also how long until the first customer refuses to get out of the pod at the end of their allocated slot and causes some kind of mid air bust-up?
Some of the cabin upgrades look nice; I'd be interested to try this extra space economy lark as I really don't mind slumming it in hoi polloi class to save my $$$ but do miss being able to stretch my legs.
However, short of the sleep pod there doesn't appear to be much here that other airlines haven't already done yonks ago?
Having 7 classes is just an overkill imo. It's like my BMW having so many ways to personalise the ride and drive, with barely any noticeable differences. All the extra complications will likely result in customer complaints and costly maintenance, as we all know that electric seats are never as reliable as mechanical lever controls. The sleeping pod idea was a good effort to make lie flat affordable to the passengers in the back, but absolutely not the best use of scarce capitals and limited spaces on a plane. I've a far simpler solution that involves zero additional investment and takes up no additional spaces, but will obviously not give it away for free lol. On top of likely problem getting people out of the pod crew might even have to manage complains about bad odours from previous occupant. I'm guessing the crew will replace the bedding each time but this could just end up distracting them from their main job, which is to feed and water the passengers LOL.
Google says that Air is down 92 per cent since 7 January 2000. I wonder if dividends over this period have offset the capital loss? (Joke).
Is it possible to own airlines for the long haul (pun?) and make money?
With the taxpayer tipping in so much money you'd think the Prime Minister might lower herself slightly and fly with the great unwashed on scheduled ANZ flights rather than travelling in a largely empty 757, like recent trips to Au and Queenstown I witnessed.
And let us not forget the carbon footprint left behind despite her self-confessed 'generational nuclear free moment' idealogical burp.
Huge flight disruptions in the US as well as in Europe thanks to a combination of rapidly increased demand and big staff shortages caused by Covid redundancies plus now Omicron blowing through the skeleton staff still around.
Just wondering whether this mess (thousands of daily flights cancelled) will be good or bad for the carriers ... and whether this might impact Air New Zealand as well?
I suppose the period of uncertainty might still hang around for a while - and uncertainty is rarely good news for investments.
CNBC devoted a fairly prominent article to the lie down pods today.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/03/air-...s-by-2024.html
To put it in perspective and remind us all AIR NZ has Billions of dollars of debt, ever increase operating costs, elevated ticket prices which will affect continued travel, a global fuel crisis to contend with, yet punters still somehow hold onto this presumption that the company is a good investment and will somehow magically be profitable in the near future. The SP should, and likely will after a relief rally retracement, meander around the CR 0.53 at best. At least until the books can see some light at the end of what is still currently a very long dark tunnel. Opening of boarders is not the magic cure at this point. Be cautious and prepared for a relief rally to fail and 0.53 to be retested. Buying in on FOMO seeing a small run up catches those snoozing when profits are taken off the table by larger volume traders sending it spiralling back down again. Then repeat the process and they double their gains on the second run up again.See it often. Still huge issues the Airline faces. But hey jump on board and take a nap in the new sleep pods, to distract us from the real problems AIR is facing. Surprised those that are willing to throw their money in already on this minor relief rally currently. Optimism in a negative market, with rocketing interest, inflation and cost of living. Yet somehow people will simply be able too afford air tickets at double the cost. Doesn't make much sense does it.
Stuff headline:Families told to 'find a couch' at Christchurch airport overnight after Qantas flight diverts.
Is Robertson Airlines still the Christchurch ground handling contractor for Queer And NassTy airlinS? If so is this symptomatic of the organizational stumbling we can expect as the airline tries to get back into action?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
AirNZ used to be the ground handling agent for QANTAS in Christchurch, they possibly still are.
A common practice in the airline industry is to give the ground handling agent a fixed sum for arranging accommodation, with the agent allowed to trouser any of this money not spent. This creates an incentive for the ground handling agent to minimize the cost.
My post on this subject was speculation, however it is not beyond the bounds of reason that it was Robertson Airlines responsibility to arrange accommodation for the tired and weary travelers which they failed to do.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Share price rising on good volume. 20% up from it’s lows. Only another 5% to get back to where Foran invested a million bucks. Oil price falling. What’s not to like.
Might have to put AIR back on the watchlist... dont think i have ever seen a CEO buy on market $1.5m??
What a great endorsement
Can't exactly say he's not invested......good on him.
Would have been nice to see recent upwards trend continue. But was short lived and now lost 25% of its recent 20% gains down from 0.645. Seemingly market sentiment not following Foran's backing? The recent rally lost wind in the sails pretty quickly. Will need another puff to keep things heading in the right direction or the tide will keep dragging the ship backwards. Where did the recent buy demand go?
lets face it the only way to fly back to europe next year and get a decent nights sleep is to fly the A380..
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/artic...ack/index.html
Yes and of course there is now Jewel to visit but Business class to copenhagen at the moment is about 4 grand more expensive that direction at the moment?
hopefully a bit cheaper next year.
Best buy signal ever is the CEO buying stock.
.................................................. ........................
I can't see how they would be making any money with all these flight disruptions and having to put people up in Hotels overnight.
International travel still looks to be problematic .....No prospect of a dividend for years , there has to be something better to invest in .
DISC: No position held either long or short.
Hadn't looked at their Operating Stats for a while
June report makes miserable reading
Surprised that domestically passenger numbers for full year are down 16% on last year and 40% lower than in 2019. Thats a huge drop, like close to 5 million less passengers
Only redeeming factor is RASK is up 29% from 2019 - fares a lot higher - making it expensive to fly these days
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...574/376058.pdf
What a bizarre and backwards looking way to read the report :confused:
June passenger numbers were up 18% overall and passenger revenue kms up even more at 33%. Most importantly overall load factor is 87.7%, the highest I have seen it in 20 years of watching off and on.
In June Air NZ was still scaling back up. The unsustainably high load factor shows they failed to do this fast enough especially across the Tasman and to the US.
Remember NZ only stopped breaking the law and let back in our own people a few months ago and many families were still blocked from re-uniting until a few days ago. Pre-flight tests were also still required in June. Still loads of pent up demand.
The money maker LAX route increasing to 17x weekly from Aug 15 shows the direction of travel.
Share price firming nicely on reasonable volume. Looking for more traction leading up to the results in a couple of weeks then back to book-build price and beyond.
Disc: Hold a lot so I’m biased.
No company has as much operating leverage as an airline. We've seen the impact of it working in reverse. It kills the business almost overnight if passenger numbers fall. But, now we are seeing the operating leverage across both short and long haul working in the right direction. As long as China doesn't do anything silly with Taiwan, AIR will be making profits across it's network.
By my calculations ( subject to error) since 17 May CEO Greg Foran has bought 4,128,000 shares at a cost of $2,503,252.
Highest price paid was 69.4c and lowest 55.9c with an overall average price of 60.64c
With Friday’s closing price of 67 cents, so far he has made a profit of $262,540 in less than 3 months - just over 10%.
Not bad for a company that he knows is just getting started.
Refuelled for recovery, Air NZ announces 2022 annual result
Refuelled for recovery, Air NZ announces 2022 annual result - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
2022 Financial summary
• Loss before other significant items and taxation of $725 million ,compared to $444 million in the prior year
• Statutory loss before taxation of $810 million
• Operating revenue lifts 9 percent to $2.7 billion, driven by Cargo performance
• Recapitalisation completed in May, raising $2.2 billion
• Liquidity of $2.3 billion as at 23 August
In a year of ongoing twists and turns, Air New Zealand has recapitalised its business and, in the last quarter, experienced greater than expected demand for travel, while managing rising costs and an ongoing pandemic.
The airline has today announced a loss before other significant items and taxation of $725 million for the 2022 financial year, consistent with guidance provided to the market in June. The statutory loss before taxation was $810 million .
Although the financial year ended strongly following the phased reopening of New Zealand’s borders from March, the airline’s operating revenue of $2.7 billion was significantly impacted by pandemic related travel restrictions.
Cargo and domestic revenues helped lift overall revenue by 9 percent, however high fuel prices and reduced flying over much of the year resulted in a loss for the period.
Air New Zealand Chief Executive Officer Greg Foran said the airline continued to be guided by a clear strategy, moving deftly to address continued change by focusing on doing the right thing for its stakeholders.
“For customers, we’ve been focused on restoring services, maintaining a choice of fares and launching innovations to improve their journey with us. For our amazing staff we have provided one-off awards to acknowledge their continued extra mahi, and for our communities we’ve been obsessed with operational performance, which drives the reliable services they depend on,” says Mr Foran.
“For our shareholders, whose support has refuelled the business for future growth, we’ve completed a successful recapitalisation that was structured to be fair to our shareholders, including those that didn’t take up the rights offer.”
Mr Foran said cargo revenue continued to be a major contributor to the company’s performance, up 32 percent to $1.0 billion. Additional flying under the New Zealand and Australian government airfreight schemes contributed $403 million of that revenue. With borders now largely reopened, the Australian scheme has ended, and the New Zealand scheme is tapering off and will cease by the end of March 2023.
Firmly in the ‘revive’ phase of the ‘survive, revive, thrive’ journey, Mr Foran says the current environment is one of strong bookings despite ongoing challenges.
When travel restrictions began to lift in March the company recorded a very strong recovery in bookings and revenues. This trend continues, with high booking levels through July and August. Corporate bookings are also encouraging and are trending closely towards pre-Covid levels.
Mr Foran referred to the airline’s mid-August schedule changes, which reduced seats by 1.5 percent through to the end of March 2023, as another example of doing the right thing for stakeholders.
“As we’ve been seeing overseas, travel demand is much stronger than anyone anticipated. But we’re operating in a very tight labour market with high fuel prices, tough economic conditions and the highest levels of employee sickness in more than a decade.
“Our rehiring efforts and training capability have been excellent, as has work to get our Boeing 777-300ER aircraft back flying again, but the experience for some of our customers and the impact on our front-line staff this winter has been unacceptable, so we’ve adapted yet again.
“Having adjusted our schedule to provide customers with increased surety over their travel plans for the coming spring and summer, I am hugely appreciative of the work the Air New Zealand whānau has done to deliver more than 25,000 flights across June and July alone.”
The airline also made investment decisions in support of its Kia Mau strategy. These include the plan to move the Auckland workforce to its airport campus, investment in a new hangar at Auckland airport and the decision to close its Gas Turbines business unit by the middle of the 2023 calendar year.
Air New Zealand Chair Dame Therese Walsh thanked Greg and the Air New Zealand team for a year in which the airline not only managed significant challenges but also introduced changes that will deliver improved services to customers and made progress on their long-term sustainability goals.
“The airline’s continued ability to step carefully through an ongoing pandemic while looking beyond the horizon is becoming a core capability. While introducing and then removing vaccination requirements for domestic travel, there have been preparations for our New York launch and the completion of designs for our new Boeing 787 Dreamliner cabin experience.
“For our AirpointsTM members there were more than 2,000 new products added to our AirpointsTM store as well as the introduction of Flexipay, so customers can enjoy even more online shopping options. I’m especially excited about our next generation app, which will give customers a more seamless travel experience when it rolls out in the coming months.
“In April we announced ‘Flight NZ0’, a programme to engage customers as we work towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050. We were the second airline globally to announce an interim science-based target to 2030 and continue to make progress on sustainable aviation fuel and zero emissions aircraft technology.
“Throughout the year we have also made improvements to the pay and conditions for our people, settling 12 collective employment agreements, increasing the base pay of our front-line workers and restarting incentive payments to staff on individual employment agreements ensure we retain our dedicated team.”
Dame Therese acknowledged the support the airline has received from its shareholders over the course of a challenging two-year period.
“From the Crown loan provided in the early days of the pandemic, to the airfreight support scheme that helped us keep connected to key export markets, to the $2.2 billion recapitalisation completed in May which allowed thousands of shareholders to take part in refuelling the airline for success. We have had significant support from all our shareholders and for that we are truly grateful.”
Strong liquidity position with dividend suspended
As at 23 August 2022, the airline has available liquidity of $2.3 billion, consisting of approximately $1.9 billion in cash and $400 million of available funds on the unsecured standby loan facility with the Crown. The cash balance includes $200 million of issued redeemable shares which the airline intends to redeem once our recovery is further progressed.
The Board does not expect to consider payment of dividends before the airline’s earnings substantially recover, and in the context of a supportive and sustained broader economic environment and recovery.
Outlook for 2023
With borders now open to the majority of the airline’s markets, Air New Zealand expects the 2023 financial year to represent the first full year of uninterrupted passenger flying since the beginning of the pandemic.
Total flying capacity for the 2023 financial year is expected to be in the range of 75 percent to 80 percent of pre-Covid levels. On this basis, the airline anticipates a significant improvement in financial performance relative to financial year 2022.
Given the degree of uncertainty regarding volatility in jet fuel prices, the risk of a global recession, and other macroeconomic factors including inflationary pressures on costs, no earnings guidance will be provided at this time.
Update
My NTA guess of 35 to 40 more than a year ago came in, do I get a chocolate fish?
Here's the revenue in advance issue I banged on about. 2022 $1.635B vs 2021 $689m disclosed on the balance sheet, Note 14 shows only $194m is loyalty scheme. We debated that on here and this number is way below all of us I think. My big issue is there is another cash crunch over the next 12 months. That revenue in advance is equal to all passenger revenue in 2022.
Current assets at $2497 Current liabilities at $3171. That is not good and is normally a sign that another cap raise is on the horizon.
so possibility of further sheep being taken for a ride to hoist the fusilage to a slightly more even keel ?
SP seems to have recovered a bit since the last CapRaise Wallet slaughter
Wonder how much longer and higher before the next 'empty the pockets' exercise lands ? :)
Still an amused spectator watching this airframe wreck spluttering across the skies ;)
Hopefully some of the loose debri doesn't make too much of a splash when it crashes
into a startled peacefully sleeping Robbo's soup bowl in front of him ;)
Dassets, whats your take on the cargo numbers and what will happen going forward? Up 32% to $1b but 40% of their income is the Govt scheme which is going to taper off in the next 6-7 months.
Will AIr NZ lose out once other operators start back flying into NZ with more capacity??
Had a crack at this company's FY22 accounts:
https://recastinvestor.substack.com/...-airnzx-aizasx
It should be pretty obvious that I despise this company.
But I hope forum members get some value out of it. Took quite a long time to do.
Cheers.
Hmm.
It is clear from this analysis that you are quite emotionally involved. I don't want to dispute the facts and issues and certainly not your emotions, but I am not sure, whether this analysis helps other investors to make sound judgement calls about the application of their funds.
It feels a bit like drawing conclusions on Christchurch's future by a detailled analysis of the rubble of the CTV building - if you see what I mean?
Looking at AIR - obviously, the last three years have been a disaster. I don't think however that it is legit to use them as a base for their future fortunes. You put as well a lot of emphasis on the mount Erebus disaster and the Ansett investment. Sure - they used to make mistakes on their journey, but so did others - and some of them do these days quite well.
I think the only things which count for AIR from here on are:
1) do they have (or can they get) the know how, the assets and enough funds to ramp up a successful airline rising out of the rubble?
2) How will the industry and the travel market change after (or with) Covid and with increasing climate change issues and can they adapt to the changes?
I am not sure I found an answer to these quesitons in the analysis.
Personally I think that Warren Buffetts advise not to invest in airlines was good ... I note however that Warren Buffett didn't follow his own sound advise :) ; It is probably like with all other things in life ... the correct answer is always: It depends.
“ Buy when there’s blood in the streets “
Most of us here on this forum are in the business of looking for opportunities to increase our wealth by way of the share market.
Like it or loathe it as a company, the AIR share price has always been cyclical.
If you had bought AIR when everything looked hopeless, and the share price was at a low ebb ( not necessarily it’s low) and sold when it had recovered significantly, (not necessarily at its high) there was money to be made. I have done this and it has been profitable.
It has however required time and patience, and as stated, reasonable timing.
I have started that process again recently.
DISC: I hold quite a few so I’m biased, I am not risk averse, and this is not advice.
Thanks for your very constructive reply. Great points, well made and appreciated.
I apologise that I went over the top on this company. It was unprofessional. You're right, it's very emotional.
As regards the two important questions you raise on 2) I think the surprise will be on the downside. Don't think travel will recover quickly if ever to the pre-Covid levels and 1) is dependent on 2) and don't think there's the capital in the company to endure a soft ramp-up.
Thanks again.
(Don't like to be pedantic but it's advice not advise).
That is a hard one. I think looking at the pax numbers and Auckland Airports that we will struggle to get a full recovery so we may not see the same operators and schedules. Long haul, and we are long, is problematic for some people. Carbon cost of flights is becoming a thing that drives where (some) people go. I think that european to NZ/Aust tradition could be paired back with maybe Aussi surviving with an Asian add on.
The freight is really interesting. It is pretty obvious we have a big issue in terms of vulnerability of key trade to transport disruption. On seafreight we appear to be losing schedule. For airfreight I believe the system we had has been shown to be flawed. Maybe AIRNZ/Govt has to think about a dedicated freight operation ie freight planes with a Pacific mandate focused on Aust/China/Japan. I mean what if Taiwan kicks off, we lose our belly space on pax aircraft for how long through Asia? Or SARS or or etc. And while we are at it maybe we need sea vessels that we can influence, hey Crazee Robo's Container-2-u Services. We need to bring in 8 ship loads of bitumen a year to put on our roads since Marsden Point no longer produces ir(as a by-product). What happens if we don't? We have big problem. Liquid fuels transport, critical to the economy so why don't we harden(protect) that capability. We actually have to, imo, secure our lines of communication(army slang for logistics routes) with the current state of affairs and the time to build ships. I welcome comment on those bombshells!!
Interesting discussion. I’m curious about your view that travel will not recover to pre-COVID levels. I’ve spent the last 3 months in northern Europe where I’m involved in a business heavily reliant on tourism. Accommodation in the country has been fully booked (yes that’s right) since early June and until late October, which is much further into autumn than normal. Visitor numbers are up about 10-15% on 2019. This has been helped by people from south Europe escaping the heatwave there. But people are back travelling flat out. Sadly NZ has already missed out due to stupid COVID response. AIR, AIA and the whole hospitality industry is on its knees as a result. Personally I’m not touching these companies as investments as I think NZ Inc has got a lot of work to do to recover. Meanwhile the rest of the World is rocketing ahead with tourism.
I was mainly referring to AIR and the asia-pacific. Don't know much about Europe.
An article today might be of interest:
https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/09/04/t...tcPGXmnS3uuBVU
At present I'm in Asia and in the country I'm in things are pretty dire. Many are having trouble meeting costs of day-to-day living. Violence on the rise.
Another issue is climate change. That's been explored ad infinitum.
As regards AIR demand is strong for a while. It's hard to ramp up supply. The demand is a balloon I think. Will fall later. AIR cancelling flights for various reasons.
Domestically the middle and lower classes are caught in an inflationary squeeze. Much travel is discretionary.
Some people are doing business differently without travelling to meet.
I believe the true horror of what the pharmaceutical and medical people have done to the general public with the Covid vaccines is slowly emerging. Ergo significant illness coming (only an opinion mind you).
Lastly, something odd is happening with energy. Just a feeling which followed Macron's recent comments on the 'end of abundance' made recently.
Sad ... and I realise that (pseudo-)religious believes are always personal, never rational and always non-sensical to anybody but for the elected few who believe them.
Still - do we need to spread this nonsense really across the AIR thread?
Facts please (and in the appropriate thread) instead of a faith based undermining tactic.
Some facts:
https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/8/196
No, it's part of a list of things that can potentially impact AIR (and other businesses) which is why I mentioned it in response to a question. Sorry if I ruffled some feathers.
Adding an Asian perspective, Singapore is reopening Terminal 4 in a week. Despite China and Japan still being closed or partially closed. Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have all reopened and their long restricted populations are itching to travel.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/sing...ctober-2828886
Singapore have also removed mask requirements for Changi and onboard flights from the island. I think an airport is the place one would most want to though!
https://www.traveldailymedia.com/no-...pore-airlines/
More feel good......
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129...from-next-week
LOL - 1% sustainable !!!! 1% down, 99% to go. Feels great, though wondering, whether they considered the additional CO2 pollution to import that stuff ... might be actually less than 1%!Quote:
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) imports would account for about 1% of the total fuel purchased this year by Air New Zealand, he said.
AIR ann in ASX their response to media spectulation that they have not been approached for a merger !
Who could it be?
Crazy conspiracy theory; Why haven't the spreadsheet jockeys at Bain restarted Virgin(under arm bowlers division) flights across the ditch? Could it be they want to side step competition reduction issues if they were to take over Robertson Airlines?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Large volume went through at the close. Share price closed at 69.5c up 3.7% VWAP 69c with over 4.3 million shares crossed for the day. Going well.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/399195
The CEO Greg Foran is going to be rich(er)!!! He must have made half a mill capital gain already on his purchases?
Air New Zealand has continued to see strong forward sales over the first three months of the financial year, particularly for travel through to January 2023 and continues to operate approximately 70 percent of FY19 capacity. On the basis that this forward sales strength continues over the coming quarter, with similar capacity and assuming an average jet fuel price of approximately US $130/bbl, the airline currently expects earnings before taxation and other significant items for the first half of the 2023 financial year to be in the range of $200 million to $275 million.
The airline notes that fuel prices remain highly volatile and that this is one of many factors that have the potential to slow our recovery and significantly impact earnings. Additionally, demand in the second half of the financial year remains highly uncertain.
On this basis and taking into account global recessionary risks and other macroeconomic factors including inflationary pressures on costs, the airline is not providing full year guidance at this time. The airline strongly cautions against extrapolating first half FY23 earnings guidance to the full year given the many uncertainties in the trading environment.
I received an email from them yesterday saying the time to use flight credits has been pushed out another year - book by 31/01/2024, fly by 31/12/2024.
The wife says I'll be booking tickets well before then.........
Biker, congrats on picking this one up and running with it. Looking back a few pages, you've been a keen supporter of it as a cyclical stock even when quite a few were bagging it. As you say, being prepared to take on a bit of risk and increase ones wealth via the sharemarket. 37% return on at least some of your purchases in 2 months (54cps - 74cps)!! Well done for following your conviction.
I have just come back from the US and then a domestic flight with AIR. We were packed in like sardines on all four sectors. Particularly the long haul with nearly 300 pax there was not one seat available. Even AKL-WLG was completely full. I thought at the time, AIR must be making a fortune.
Don't forget the $185m of MIAC for 2023 and that more than 100% of the earnings are non-cash, ie credit usage. MIAC finishes June 2023 and won't be extended.