How do you think about the 1H results ?
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How do you think about the 1H results ?
margins were a little dis-appointing
Video Conf call was good, based on their commentary there's a very good chance for dividends to resume earlier that Oct21. I would say probably end of FY Mar 21, there could be dividend declared.
Result not pleasing, but has it been factored into the SP already.
Macquarie has retained their $4 12 month price and estimating dividend at 30 cents. If that happens will certainly see big upside. Obviously a few potential variables out there at the moment.
it expects to resume dividend payments after the first half of the 2022 financial year.
Can someone explain how Z's buyback works? Its letter to shareholders mention buying back 612,698 shares at $4,715612. Way above current market value. See letter below:
PROPOSED BUY-BACK OF SHARES
This document is provided to all shareholders in accordance with the requirements set out in section 62 of the Companies Act 1993 (Act).
Z Energy Limited (Z Energy) wishes to make an offer to Z Energy LTI Trustee Limited (the Trustee) to buy back up to 612,698 shares (the Forfeited Plan Shares) which the Trustee is holding and which have been forfeited by employees participating in Z Energy’s Restricted Share Long Term Incentive Plan (the Buyback).
The terms of the Buyback, which will be made under section 60(1)(b)(ii) of the Act (and in accordance with clause 23.2 of Z Energy’s constitution), are as follows:
Z Energy has entered into a Restricted Share Long Term Incentive Plan Put and Call Option Deed (the Deed) with the Trustee. Under the Deed, Z Energy can exercise a call option to require the Trustee to sell forfeited plan shares to Z Energy from time to time. Z Energy wishes to exercise that call option in relation to the Shares;
The Shares will be acquired by Z Energy and held as treasury stock; and the total consideration for the acquisition of the Shares will be $4,715,612 being the outstanding loan balance associated with those Shares, owed by the Trustee to Z Energy.
Board resolutions
To initiate the proposed Buy-back the Board of Z Energy resolved on 3 November 2020:
1. To make the offer to buy-back the Forfeited Plan Shares (Offer) at least 10 working days after a disclosure document has been sent to all shareholders in accordance with section 62 of the Companies Act 1993 (Act).
2. That the acquisition of the Forfeited Plan Shares under the Offer is in the best interests of Z Energy and of benefit to the remaining shareholders.
3. That the terms of the Offer and the consideration offered for the Forfeited Plan Shares are fair and reasonable to both Z Energy and the remaining shareholders.
4. That it is not aware of any information that will not be disclosed to shareholders:
4.1. which is material to an assessment of the value of the Forfeited Plan
Shares; and
4.2. as a result of which the terms of the Offer and consideration offered for
the Forfeited Plan Shares are unfair to the Trustee;
5. That on acquisition of the Forfeited Plan Shares, those shares are to be held by Z Energy as treasury stock
6. That the Board is satisfied that Z Energy will, immediately after acquiring the Forfeited Plan Shares, satisfy the solvency test applied under section 52 of the Act.
The grounds for the directors’ conclusions under the resolutions in paragraphs 2 to 4 above (inclusive) are:
1. the Offer will enable Z Energy to acquire and then transfer the Forfeited Plan Shares on-market without diluting the current shareholding; and
2. the consideration for the Forfeited Plan Shares is the outstanding loan balance associated with such Forfeited Plan Shares.
Interested directors
Julia Raue is “interested” (as that term is defined in section 139 of the Act) in Z Energy making the Offer, by virtue of being a director of each of Z Energy and the Trustee. The details of this interest have been entered into Z Energy’s interests register. However, none of the directors of the Z Energy has any “relevant interest” (as that term is defined in section 146 of the Act) in any of the Forfeited Plan Shares.
Yours faithfully,
Debra Blackett
General Counsel and Chief Governance Officer
Ahgong - it all comes down to this “ the consideration for the Forfeited Plan Shares is the outstanding loan balance associated with such Forfeited Plan Shares”
Sort of implies that they must have acquired Some at a higher price than today
Bit bod a messy housekeeping exercise that often happens in such schemes
Interesting that Pak n Save South Island is discontinuing its Sticky Club discount fuel scheme from the end of November - it's made me loyal to Z for the past few years with up to 35c a litre discount each month. The flier they handed me at the supermarket today claimed it's been "expensive" to run so guess I'll have to look elsewhere to save a bit of gas money.
good fuel volume report from Z TODAY
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...981/334759.pdf
with the covid vaccine news jet fuel might bounce back sooner than 22
Or are ppl selling to get out after buying in at the capital raise and seeing no share price movement upwards as might have been expected. Certainly didn’t go the same way compared to Auckland Airport etc
The "fundies" or "instos" seem to be blamed for many things when large volumes are traded.Quote:
Originally Posted by sb9;h855692
So if "fundies are buying up..." who is selling? It's a fair bet that it would only be other "fundies" selling out? Some 'experts' are saying "buy", other "experts" with the same information are saying "sell". How can this be so?
z energy is up 13% last mth so its doing fine still plenty of room in the covid bounce move and we price in the recovery.
fuel volumes back to normal , jet fuel will bounce back at some stage as will dividends .... planets are aligning as they say and who cares about peak oil in 15 yrs time its about now and the opportunity
z on fire , you can tell the strenght of the move when it climbs of its lows of the day and ends at weekly highs
z breaking above previous resistance , next test 3.50? previous pivot area
still tracking nicely , my the roads were busy on the weekend too.
Makes sense but I can’t understand the AIRNZ rally!
What happened to up up and away?? Low volume Friday...........
Originally this was meant as a potential trade, ride the capital raise share price upwards as happened to so many other companies. I was surprised when this did not happen. I was always comfortable with the long term fundamentals however and am happy to hold long term. It has been nice to see a bit a movement in the recent week or so, as I feel there is a lot of upside here in the next couple of years. Volumes are rising and share price will move substantially once actual dividend amount is announced.
not sure what time frame but petrol engine cars will face increased taxes not less. And before the decade is out driving a petrol engine car will be seen as socially unacceptable. Not sure the mind set of the average kiwi will go this far looking at the favourite pass times of kiwi human beings. Its on the minds of some and next week or so the PM is declare climate marshal law. I say all loud cars and motor bikes be removed first...North land get south african tourist operations vehicles ...gather up 501's
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casspir
the cops are buying new petrol cars though, so its not going to happen just yet.
They use them for about 6-7 years before replacement so I guess they could be using EV's by the end of the decade.
EV's are just not popular out here in the provinces. I reckon its going to take longer than 10 years before general populace swaps over.
The government needs to address the capital cost of the vehicles first, rather than tinkering with things like banning ICE or exempting EV's from RUC.
Waitomo have partnered to rollout hydrogen refueling stations, but I haven't heard anything from Z. Personally though, based on physics and the economics of the hydrogen system envisaged, I'm not convinced the hydrogen economy is any where near tenable yet.
your not alone in thinking a value trade or investment , i see L1 Capital just joined the register on friday they are value investors
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...128/336337.pdf
also i think as waltz mentioned ardern probably spooked a few people with her climate emergency announcement which probably didnt help the share short term.
quite funny her statement as i see NZ might not be invited to the climate summit as NZ is not meeting its paris accord commitments so maybe her statement was just to make sure she gets an invitation.
NZ faces exclusion from major event of carbon-cutting nations
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...utting-nations
looks like the market has got over arderns climate emergency announcement and is getting back on track
Realists actually, as opposed to a pile of sand.
Z Energy launches pay-by-numberplate option for faster gas payments
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123...r-gas-payments
first for nz
Not everyone will like it, but I see it as a step forward, if it works as it should.
“The technology is hooked up to a system that connects with the police so if a stolen vehicle comes in and the licence plate has been entered into that system, it will lock the pump.”
Does still rely on a few processes done quickly. I'm sure if you steal a car and head straight to the petrol station they'll get your fuel. But there will also be more cameras to hopefully get an ID on the thief.
Excellent growth technology. If done well, this should help reduce wage overheads in the long run.
I didn't think I would own zel again but company is looking much better so bought a small holding yesterday. SP up today, the Morningstar valuation is about 2 dollars higher than todays close. Is it because profits are bouncing back
Don't hold...but Zel is Jarden top outperform stock
Amazing that thier pick are VGL,KPG and ZEL...own VGL and KPG...
I'm seeing where i live at least 12c and sometimes up to 20c per litre difference between competitors and Z, all within a couple of km.
Good for shareholders I guess unless it starts to affect sales.
This could convert some customers from other companies, however:
1. The technology can be replicated by other companies (did they patent it?)
2. Z fuel prices can be similar or wildly different to other local fuel retailers. Locally I have seen anywhere from 3cpl to 14cpl differentials at any given moment.
3. Margins on fuel are much thinner than items sold in-store. One of the drivers behind the stackable discounts, it to ensure maximise customer interaction within the store, thereby tempting them to purchase higher margin items.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/365194
Everyone seems too caught up in atm at the mo. What's everyone's thoughts on this.
This guy tweets this -
@stevebiddle
I don't think @zenergynz even try to be competitive with fuel now. 19 cpl more expensive than Pak n Save directly opposite them which is selling their fuel under a resale agreement.
And Z responds within an 1/2 hour (impressive in holiday mode?)
@zenergynz
While we always aim to give our customers a competitive price, our strategy is focused on excellent customer service and experience, community investment, and exploring sustainable solutions for our industry. I think we can offer you many things that our competitors can't ^EC
I noticed Z's prices are on par with BP now. They were always a lot cheaper but maybe lower prices does not always increase market share.
No interest in ZEL?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...421/339015.pdf
Petrol volume on par with PCP
Diesel up 4% PCP
Jet Fuel down 60% PCP
Even selling more sausage rolls and chocolate bars with convenience store sales increasing 5.9% on a like for like basis.
Once the planes come back we should be rocking.
So only a year or more to wait then
Yeah and I'm not sure I'm keen to wait around that long.
My average buy in is $2.77 so sitting on a small double digit gain. Bought after the COVID slump.
I have zero passion for ZEL so have done zero research- (funny since 'DYOR' seems to be the topic of today).
Purchased purely on 'beaten up COVID affected stock that will rebound because vehicles will continue to need fuel', in the medium term future.
Might just let Mr Market digest this news over the next few weeks and set a price for me. Take the gains and remove from my watch list :mellow:
"Purchased purely on 'beaten up COVID affected stock that will rebound because vehicles will continue to need fuel', in the medium term future"
EV's are not going to require fuel, I cant see this rising anytime soon, I sold out at $2.90 last year. The growth of EV's and the lack of airline movements will keep the SP down around its current levels. Yes, EV's may take a bit of time to grow in the NZ market but grow it will and as I drive around in my 4 litre gas guzzler, I seem to see more and more. I'm now a convert and fancy the new FORD Mustang Mach-E.
I am all for EV's but reading things like this makes me think the roll out could be slower than the average person thinks..
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-ne...pply-of-cobalt
Definitely varies by country.. and Z is only in NZ but here is a quote from an article today
The company also noted governments around the world were putting quotas in place around EV take-up rates across the next three decades, led by China which is targeting EV penetrations rates of around 40 per cent by 2030, just nine years away.
Lots of people are assuming that there will be widespread adoption of EVs in the short term. It's easier said than done. Aside from production capacity constraints and cost, there are a myriad of issues which will take a long time to resolve.
eg. using the heater in an electric vehicle during cold weather can reduce EV range by over 40 percent
https://medium.com/@angelica.schreye...s-1201efd8b99f
I've noticed that car chargers are usually taken as more EVs hit the road, so if you need a charge outside (considering the average range of a lLeaf is only 200km) and you can't find a charger it's akin to looking for a toilet when you're busting. Of course, more chargers will be built over time, but installers have to balance demand with over-investment in infrastructure, so no one's going to build thousands of charging stations overnight.
This is why I think Z will quietly continue generating good returns over the next decade.
Bit of a sunset industry eh. Will be interesting to see how Z and it's peers pivot to meet the requirements of the changing landscape.
Maybe a mixture of a one stop shop for fast car charging, cafe, mini supermarket, car wash etc.
Going to have to keep evolving.
I would have thought would be getting more carved up on fuel volumes by self-service competitors like Waitomo, NPD etc and aggressive pricing/lower cost must be squeezing retail fuel margins?? In Dunno's there are at least 8 of these stations that have appeared in recent years.....
On the plus side, many are sitting on prime real estate/sites, albeit expect they lease.
would it be safe to assume that most middle class families have two cars? ......so I see it more as one car as the local runabout (charged overnight at home for cheap) i.e. the Leaf or whatever it is, & the other a larger ICE for the 2-3 long-distance drives they do when going on holiday (until more infrastructure is rolled out / as technology & range improves, at which point the 2nd car is upgraded). Most of the population don't drive 200km every day - maybe 60-70km? If every family upgrade one car to an EV in the next few years, EV growth is going to explode, regardless of the number of car chargers. Not to mention the pressure from Gen Z teenagers on parents to do something about climate change... there were some big protests about this not long ago don't forget.
Very interesting on the EV temperature issues. In addition to the detrimental effects on the battery itself, the increase in heating/AC (or in fact any other electrical system) is going to add on to those range issues. Compared to an ICE vehicle which can continually charge itself as it is operated, extra electronics like display screens, navigation, sensors, all add to the battery drain.
Disappointing that the various manufacturers are also not using interchangeable cells or universal charging interfaces. Also as an aside, in NZ RUCs are scheduled to be applied to light passenger vehicles from December this year.
Given age of NZ vehicle fleet, range and cost of EVs, EV limitations, NZ electrical grid and charger infrastructure, I don't see EV's replacing ICE en masse for a significant period of time.
From a purely economic perspective, an EV didn't make sense for us, and won't until the capital cost drops significantly. There are cars available that suit our day to day requirements that consume as little as 2.5-3L/100km, so the number of years it would take to recoup investment doesn't make sense.
As I've said over in the EV thread, if the government feel the need to drive adoption they need to stop mucking around with RUC exemptions and do something that actually drives adoption which is reduce the capital cost or encourage more favourable financing options. EV quotas will simply result in older cars being kept for longer periods of time. In the mean time, it would be useful to at least know that Z has a long term strategy for this emerging market.
Disc: Not a holder.
Looking at the chart this is one very sick dog. Divi is suspended AFAIK too?
Reason for the recent pronounced weakness? https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...go-zero-carbon
Been rather grim SP movements lately.........
Be interesting to see details how NZ will pay for these wonderful zero-carbon changes or its bye Jacinda
There are many more encouraging and rewarding companies to invest in, albeit the market overall is value_stretched, one can't understand why anyone would invest or hold a long term capital destruction, surely it's not just for dividends, when the capital lost massively exceeds the dividends earned?
Thirty plus stocks with only 3 now showing red having held Zel for two years (not trading) Not holding for dividend but any dividend will move the needle as would any progress towards electrifying their stations assuming they wish to keep up with play. $3.90 break-even point so see no reason to suddenly sell taking a hefty loss. My other holdings have been (much) kinder............
the announcement by z saying they got a dispute notice from NZR seemed to be the turning point in the recovery price wise + a number of govt announcements. changed the recovery narrative
Kingfish sold out quite a while back, unimpressed with management. I think management have totally dropped the ball. Mike Bennetts comes out with trite statements often beginning with "We welcome" this change or We welcome that change but what they have totally missed the opportunity with is welcoming and leading the charge with embracing adding EV charging facilities at all their service stations. If they had rolled out just one or two charging points at each of their service stations they would have dramatically lifted their store sales as consumers munched their way through tens of millions of dollars of (very high margin) snack food each year while waiting for their EV's to charge up.
They have the toilets, they have the coffee, they have the snack food, all that is missing was the foresight by management to embrace and welcome the future trend to EV's. What Mike Bennetts should have done is welcomed the change and embraced it putting in EV charging points in ALL their service stations. Investing $200K is really nothing more than a token effort https://www.driven.co.nz/news/z-shif...y-ev-chargers/
I unfortunately was a holder of Z , last year I gave up and took a loss. Mike's conversations revolve around the topics of: he didn't want to be in the petrol industry, his two daughters, pies and coffee. It's never any substance.
I do wonder how much revenue they would make from EV charging though? Do you mean like a cafe and charging stations?
I think supermarkets, malls and fast food outlets will adopt the charging station in the future making it quite hard for a converted z stations to generate a profit. This may be a while away though, EV's need to come down in price for average joe to adopt.
that and the fact that we have an unreliable electrical grid. At least you know you can get around with fuel. There are many hurdles to jump before we need to worry about the size of the EV market. Never mind all of this signalling of virtue we get from the twats in Wellington.
The question is, at what price does this stock become a buy??
Now looks better than ever at current prices. The vaccine is doing its job therefore jet fuel sales will probably resume soonish
Disc, bought extra on Friday
Well before then we will see petrol and diesel sales starting to fall off due to EV's. In the meantime the minnows with their cheap unmanned stations will keep steading eroding Z's market share, year after year after year. Its just too hard to swim against an outgoing tide.
Way I see it only way forward is a complete revamp of business model. Similar to fuel stops in Asia, Z had the potential to leverage longish EV 'refueling' times to services such as children's playgrounds, entertainment, decent resturants, and maybe shopping. Imagine... You plug in your car and order your food. Food service timing is linked to charging times on your vehicle etc.
Risk is that this becomes the domain of malls etc and that petrol stations as we know them become obsolete.
I couldn't agree more re this company and I must admit I'm still holding hoping for a break even.
Their current add with a geriatric biker promoting their easy payment system leaves a lot to be desired. Motor bikes don't take great volumes and if it's pay as you go there's no add on whatsoever.
Z would be far better off showing a forecourt of boy racers, motorhomes and trucks with a bit of buzz rather than the current version.
COME ON Z..... LEAD THE WAY ON VOLUME AND ADD ON... YOUR SHAREHOLDERS WILL BENEFIT!
It's an interesting concept. IME one issue we had when investigating installation of a EV charger at a commercial property we own that contains a hospitality business, was that other sites similar to what we planned had found customers tended to buy a low-priced item and sit there talking for 1hr or more, thereby negating the churn required for the hospitality business to make decent profits. Add into the cost upgrading the road-side transformer (which would cost $250K for a 400KVa unit and we were required to pay 90% of that) and it became a non-starter for us.
Interesting observation today 1 punter bought 8,576,477 Zel shares equaling $24 million and maybe not finished. They have put their money where their mouth is. Question for the smarties why would they do that. Just chum change or pin money or something else didn't even ask for a discount ?