Any fph gossip over on hotcopper
Printable View
Any fph gossip over on hotcopper
Fully agree ....Next two years it will get rerated ...after seeing its current year's eps of around 85-90 cents ( my expectations ) ...process of rerating will start after that ...at present market too pessimistic on its prospects . Half yearly results should wake up many analysts ...at present my estimated forecast is 1050 mil revenue and 275 mil NP
Its a long term hold for next 10-15 years IMHO
There is a quarterly update due very soon. The January quarterly update got people quite excited. The price has been bouncing about during the last week, but that seems normal these days. RB rates tomorrow the market has probably already priced it in.
Enjoying the SP hike today ....... maybe some good news expected at tomorrow's ASM??
FPH's SP got hammered because their last update didn't make any FY22 forecasts (due to Covid uncertainty)..... I expect that to change tomorrow.
People under estimate the hedge value of FPH during current times . Having FPH in portfolio lets u play others stocks also as when they go down FPH bails out !!!
We could see FPH climb to previous highs ($38?), if the OCR stays as is today. A lower NZ$ and continued spread of covid delta strain could provide the tailwinds needed to drive the SP up.
AGM will also provide positive updates I am expecting.
Glad I hold FPH in my portfolio right now
Dont expect any price sensitive news from AGM ...as its still the same for the company ...they cant forecast ahead ....see it took one day to change NZ setup of double OCR hike to most likely none ...so how can FPH know what ahead !!
But we all know since long that Covid is here to stay ...so FPH will remain in limelight ...:D
Mmmmm not quite the update I hoped for, see it here.
Outlook for the remainder of the 2022 financial year
Given the continuing uncertainties associated with vaccination rates, the efficacy of various vaccines against variants of the coronavirus, and public and civic responses to COVID-19 case numbers, the company is not providing quantitative revenue or earnings guidance for the remainder of the 2022 financial year.
....The longer-term impact from COVID-19 for our Hospital business has been an increased installed base of our hardware and increased global physician awareness and experience with our therapies and products throughout hospitals. We are confident this will result in an increasing number of patients receiving the benefits of these therapies and products in the years to come.
All I know about forecasts is that they are always wrong. It's just a question of how wrong or how much rounding you apply to a forecast to mask inaccuracy. If you know nothing then say nothing, rather than say something which you know will be wrong. But there is a positive in the last quoted sentence from the announcement. It hints at higher volumes and quiet confidence.
Revenue looks far better (-2% )than analysts were predicting(-35%)
Good that consumables were relatively higher than hardware (better margins than hardware?)
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...30/financials/
Result could be impacted by freight costs
It will be interesting to see the % amount of Research & Development. They have said growing R & D in real terms but how does this compare as % of revenue? Hopefully lower as %.
583 Mil for 4 months means even July was lean after June . But now I think it will pick up again .
Not happy they not got much support from sleep apnea devices slack of Philips recall ...maybe too early .
ResMed is booming because of that ...FPH should have also got some benefit !!
I think the update is very good with only a -2% change in revenue from the extraordinary period last year. Consumables creeping up and huge increase in hardware in the last 18 months will see a steady growth in this for the foreseeable future. Totally understandable that they do not provide an outlook. It is a pretty impossible task for most companies today, FPH more so than most others.
A happy holder.
Don't get your hopes up too much - well, at least not if they are based on this wee outbreak in our small home market. I guess our main problem is that we have been so much slower than any other first world country to vaccinate. However, our government anyway does not invest into hospitals (and neither in early vaccinations) - they prefer to pay wage subsidies. Nothing FPH will gain from.
Europe is opening up at the moment - and hospital admissions stay quite low. Even in the US is it only some backwards looking Republican controlled countries (banning mandated vaccinations and mask wearing) which still have significant problems in their ICU departments ... ok - maybe we can sell some more stuff to Texas and Florida.
Of course we might be able to sell some more stuff to Indonesia, Brazil, Russia or Iran (the current Covid hotspots), but they might not have money to pay. As well - a live is not much worth in these countries, so why buy expensive equipment to conserve it?
FPH has presence in 128 countries now . Though historically their major revenue comes from western world but refreshing aspect as seen in today's update is devices sales booming now in non traditional markets.
Also hospitalisations maybe down from historic levels on last peak but still they are significantly high. USA has currently 70,000 covid cases in hospitals , France 9000 , UK 7000 and so on ...
Overall Covid boost will remain for many years to come maybe from different geographies at different waves !
Also even in poor countries like India , Indonesia and Iran there are some very five star hospitals catering to pretty rich people there . Indian private hospitals have more beds then in a medium sized rich country because of sheer numbers there .
FPH has a regional office in India as they consider it future growth market with very low penetration and enormous scope
I want you to retract saying that someones life is not worth much
Because you know - old people who die from covid arent worth much either right? so why should we lockdown.
that is the problem with your stating that !
It's not wrong though. Different countries place different value on life, and different societies value old and young lives differently as well. It's sad but very true.
You clearly do not not understand the posts you are attacking. Pretty disgraceful behaviour.
I did describe the situation in some other countries, where the human life of their citizens (if it is the life of poor people or the life of regime critics) is very little worth for the authoritarian governments running the show.
I never stated that anyone's human life is in my view of low value. I assume however that even you understand that for some people (like e.g. the religious autocrats in Iran or the strongman in Brazil or in Russia) the life of some people is of very low value. They demonstrate that on a daily basis by happily killing them and / or ignoring their needs.
This is what I meant when I said that in some countries the life of people is not of much value.
You are clearly misinterpreting my posts and attacking me without justification. Pretty disgusting behaviour - or is it just dumb?
Re-read my posts. Try to understand them before you spread smears about me. Here is your chance to apologise.
Market likes the update. Might get my $38 after all :)
even if you qualified it by saying in these countries that is still despicable because you know that to the families and loved ones a life is irreplaceable
Nzd heading under us0.68
Should help out
Delta and now resignation or realisation that this pandemic is not going away soon is helping too ...still no big upgrades from brokerages ....just small grind up on lowish volumes .
583 Mil in 4 months ...not very exciting but next 2-3 months can be booming with USA really ramping up hospitalisations ...Europe is pitching in but not very big numbers as their vaccinations are still more recent then USA's
I think worst is over ...Now a new uptrend will start or may have started
Near term I would expect it will be about selling more consumables rather than hardware for Covid cases but also
Now that more hospitals have the hardware to be used more for O2 therapy in other treatments
Time will tell the level of uptake for the alternative therapies but the sincerity of the FPH team to support Covid therapy should greatly help
FWIW Biscuit I have found this simple MACD much more predictive for BUY/SELL signals.
In the chart below, back test the MACD and you will see some clear signals. The chart also highlights the recent buying opportunities versus the longer term trend where FPH was seldom below the 90 day MA.
Attachment 12862
JMHO. Each to his/hers own.
Thanks Left Field. As I say, I'm a complete novice to TA. It looks to me like MACD is a bit of a late signal though? By the time its telling you to buy, you've already missed out, at least where a share is cycling up and down like FPH has been. It seems to me, at this point, its as likely to turn back down as to head north?
Very possible in near future ....but not immediately . Current scenario is too positive for FPH ...Hospitalisations rising....NZD falling ....lockdowns etc
So it will complete its bullish targets in the near term ...then maybe your wish will come true !!
But IMHO though it will go up and down but overall trend is going to be up towards making new highs in the medium term ...so rising lows and higher highs ...buy the dips
Exactly. TA is called TREND analysis for a reason. Using it will increase your chances of picking TREND changes.
Another key to look for is BIG SALES VOLUMES around the time of a shift in the direction of the Trend as signalled by MACD etc.
The following charts show trend change signals highlighted, both by changes in MACD trends plus big SALES VOLUME shifts.
You don't need to buy/sell at an exact crossing point, just be aware of the TREND CHANGE SIGNALS.
In the MOV case I bought in at the $1.20 mark (so far so good) In the FPH case most of my buying was around the $30 mark (so far so good.)
Attachment 12864
Attachment 12863
JMHO - as always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.
A FPH worker from their East Tamaki factory has tested positive. Ina statement this morning a Fisher & Paykel Healthcare spokesperson said they were following established contact tracing processes and had been working with public health authorities to notify anyone who may have had contact with the person.
"Our people have had early access to COVID-19 vaccinations, and we have extensive on-site safety measures, such as rapid saliva testing and Bluetooth contact tracing cards, to minimise the chance of transmission at our facilities."
I think we all agree that the vaccination rollout has been not just very tardy but the organisation looks more like a dogs breakfast. Of course they should have prioritized all essential workers (including police and supermarket workers - basically anybody who comes during their essential work in contact with the general public).
Having said that - I think there is a point for prioritizing FPH workers as well. The products they make are clearly essential during the current pandemic, we don't want them to shut down production due to a Covid outbreak, do we?.
And well entrenched risk management plan, it's in their DNA
Today at 111576 Critical patients worldwide has crossed previous peak levels of early Jan and its still rising ...as Delta is still spreading very fast .
Though it will help FPH but will hurt humanity
Of the people I have met. Over 50% have vocalised their distrust in the vaccine. I don’t think it is only the late terrible rollout. Lots of people just don’t want the vaccine, or missing their appointments due to misinformation and herd mentality because their friends shared something on Facebook.
I have heard people were giving vaccinations to randoms at a Napier location who walked past due to people just not turning up and having to throw vaccine if not used. Last count 40 something% of people in Napier were vaccinated just under 30% of Maori in Napier have been vaccinated and mentioned to me by a nurse, they are the most well informed to take up the vaccine. It’s a long hard road for any government pushing this onto people.
I’m getting my second jab on Tuesday
You are right - the poison some brainless idiots spread on social media (unfortunately as well in this forum) clearly does some job. I find it difficult to understand how the antivaxxers can still look in the mirror without the need to vomit ... but than, they seem to be tough people (like weed - hard to root out) and hey, there is other despicable scum able to do that as well.
Having said that - some of them are really just dumb and this is not their fault. Unfortunately humans are genetically disposed to "believe" in things which don't make any sense.
Need to push back here a bit fellas - all “essential’ workers were not the “obvious” targets for priority to get the vaccine first. Essential workers on the border interacting with potential infectious people (MIQ/aircrew/customs/health workers etc) were OBVIOUS, and after that it clearly was the population who were much likely to die if they caught the virus: old people and the immuno-compromised. Supermarket workers are well down the list of people needing priority. Supermarket workers who can be temporary replaced with new staff with a couple of hours training are far down the list of priority. FPH workers, who require much higher level of skill, absolutely are more important priority wise.
I agree. I'm in my early 30's and booked a jab last week at 11.30am for a 2.30pm slot same day. Turned up half an hour early. No lines, very fast. No questions why i was there as my age bracket wasnt due their jab yet. They were happy to take me and to be honest could have done with another 100 people rolling in behind me.
FPH- if someone said they would give you $1m and you had to choose one NZX stock to invest it in (no managed fund like KFL) and couldn't touch it for 20 years it would have to be FPH- surely??? MFT close second. RBD 3rd. HLG 4th because it has stood the test of time already
FPH seems to be winding up ...once crossed $ 34 then next stop maybe $ 36 ...just like MFT ...What a move !! $ 92.50
I am empathetic, but not with people who put the society we all live in at risk. Are you empathetic with boy racers, thieves and murderers? See ...
Apart from that - your post doesn't compute ...
"some people make their own choices using their own logic"
I am all for people making their own choices - however, if they choose to endanger others (as the anti vaxxers do) than they should in my view be punished. Not different to e.g. boy racers who put without hesitation the lives of other people at risk.
Regarding "using their own logic". Hmm - just tell us how many different logics there are out there - and can anybody make up their own logic?
The definition of logic:
is inconsistent with your desire to allow any Joe, Dick and Antivaxxer to make up their own logic.Quote:
reasoning conducted or assessed according to strict principles of validity.
So, really, it is quite easy: either you use above principle and valid facts to argue or alternatively you are just creating your own anti vaxxing religion. Same as the Flat Earth people or other idiots.
Obviously - everybody is allowed to make up their own religion and freedom of religion is even a basic human right. However - it has nothing to do with logic or facts.
The other thing is - most world religions these days try to improve human life and interactions (with varying success). Your Antivaxxer religion however seems mainly focussed on putting both its disciples as well as the society in general at risk. Latter is something no society can tolerate.
How do they say - reason is the worst enemy of any religion - and this includes the net of lies woven by the anti vaxxers.
"Fisher & Paykel is more of a hold at the moment. There is still a year or two where the company has to grow into its PE and we have to go through this period of earnings consolidation. Don't underestimate that one of the hardest things for Fisher & Paykel is to get those upfront hardware sales of their products into hospitals. Once they're in the hospitals they create an income stream for the business. A lot of physicians are now more familiar with these devices. It takes years for that to normally happen and COVID has created this massive pull through in recognition of the brand and the technology that Fisher & Paykel has been very aggressively investing in for the last decade."
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...t-it-s-not-csl
At AGM on line FPH are very confident about their supply chain
These games of picking stocks you cant touch for 20 years is half about growth and also half about preserving capital. And fried chicken, pizza's etc probably going to still be around in 20 years time I figure. Plus RBD have a long runway of growth ahead of them imo so ticks both boxes. Wine the same so DGL a good pick also!
Industry disruption and incumbents fighting to hold onto what they have rather than adjusting with the times mean over decades some top companies of the world fade away into shadows of their former selves.
July export sales of fph related stuff looked pretty strong v last year
Alokdhir …correct?
Not particularly ...better then June but less then last July 2020 ....dollar value estimate is $ 140 mil .
Didn't post as company already gave 4 months revenue of $ 583 Mil
So far June was the weakest ...July started ramping up ....I think August numbers will be very interesting ...With OZ also now becoming decent buyer thanks to NSW fiasco
Bigger picture remains, its consolidation year for FPH ...2022 and 2023 are big years ....U have chance till maybe 15th Oct 2021 to get in ....IMHO
I normally use the MA400 to recognise "dips" with this share and other quality stocks. Still a bit above (the yellow line in the chart below), but long term (several years) I am sure you will be fine :); Expect however further buying opportunities ahead ...
Attachment 12891
I expect both buying and selling opportunities ahead! But thanks for the suggestion of watching the 400 day moving average for dips, I was more inclined to draw a line under lows in the direction of the current trend and see how that worked out, using it and the RSI to guess dips.
BP is a very prudent and cautious buyer . Buying around $ 30 if possible is the best case scenario . Very surprised by its sluggish behaviour in the middle of big Delta outbreak worldwide with Critically ill Patients at record levels ...even above last peak ...also its lasting longer then previous waves . But it takes only a week to change the mood on this stock by Broker upgrades ...at present they still waiting to see it consolidate over last 2 years gains .
FPH is a big mover and wide trading range too ...u can take advantage of that if inclined to trade .
Question is whether its settled into an up trend now (as per the last 3 months) or whether it is going to continue "consolidating" back down to $30. I'm picking its in an up-trend but I've got plenty of ammo if it drops back to $30. Its too good a company for it to keep treading water at $30 IMO.
With hospitalisations at record levels ...even higher then any previous peak ...almost all countries now changing to " Living with the Virus " tune and breakthrough infections leading to hospitalisations on the rise in highly or almost fully vaccinated ( practically possible of eligible population ) ....FPH should very soon find favour with Broker analysts who had priced it for this year based on assumptions that Covid will be history soon and vaccinate and be fully normal will happen sooner then latter . IMHO those assumptions are not holding up well at all at the moment
I had thought myself that we will not see higher numbers of hospitalisations again after early this year ..due to success of vaccinations and measures taken by many western countries to vaccinate their populations ASAP ...USA / UK / Israel and many more almost 60-80% vaccinated still getting into very high numbers of hospitalisations . So FPH will need to incorporate their new therapies for General hospital use ...Fisher funds talks about it ...it can benefit 50 million patients a year ...at present only 7 million using it ...so long growth possible . That would have taken more time thus longer consolidation time for SP of FPH
But now whats happening is super beneficial to FPH hospital care business ....Covid care will be staying on horizon for longterm now ...not as thought before
FPH should be out of this consolidation phase sooner then anticipated by all before ...including me and will reach higher medium term targets then before
TA experts ...what do u see on charts ?
Interesting article in the NYT - https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08...ariant-vaccine (highlights below but well worth reading....)
The Latest News on Coronavirus and the Delta Variant
Aug. 29, 2021Updated Aug. 30, 2021, 5:30 a.m. ET20 minutes ago
20 minutes ago
- The U.S. reaches 100,000 average daily Covid hospitalizations for the first time since winter.
Hospitalizations nationwide have increased by nearly 500 percent in the past two months, particularly across Southern states, where I.C.U. beds are filling up.- The E.U. is set to reimpose travel restrictions on U.S. visitors.
- Israel extends booster shots to everyone aged 12 and above.
- In states with virus surges, hospitals have a concerning number of young patients.
- A Covid outbreak complicates Louisiana’s ability to deal with Hurricane Ida.
- Mississippi, the poorest state in the country, was woefully unprepared for its recent Covid surge.
- As the virus surges in Oregon, counties are asking for mobile morgues to house the dead.
- Houses of worship struggle with fear of Delta’s rise within their congregations.
Millions of Phillips medical devices in the United States recalled for cancer risk.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpap-ma...l-sleep-apnea/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhzrWk5v57s
Such institutional crossings today ...many block deals of 1000K shares worth $33Mil @ 33.10 on NZX ...lots of activity . Hopefully smart money in ...lol
FPH below 400 SMA ....400EMA still away ...:confused:
Might not be liking biden's vaccine mandate..
Yep, for a "growth" stock, that is depressing. What is also depressing is Management seem unresponsive to shareholders. They've made extraordinary profits over the course of the pandemic but no special dividend, no buybacks and very little info on future earnings or growth. I realise the SP moves at the whim of the instos and good times may come round again, but the lack of SP support is unusual for what should be a defensive stock. :confused:
Plus FPH has always had a high PE ratio.
3% OCR and the stock was still climbing.
Maybe the market thinks we'll have 6% interest rates but that's rather unlikely.
I think the market is in two minds about FPH because it reaped a huge covid reward and everyone is thinking... well, what now? Personally I think this is such a quality company that it will continue to power on from here. May take a bit of time for the market to wake up to that, but not too long I suspect.
I hope you are right Alokdhir because my patience is wearing pretty thin. I look at Ebos - better yield, steady growth - and think, hmmmmmm.
Don't sweat your holding in FPH. If you are investing for the long term you will be fine. The exposure FPH products has had into new hospitals due to covid has fast forward the business by 3 years (their words).
Any dips in the SP is great for accumulating more shares. I set myself a rule of buying around $29 which has worked quite well over the last 12 months.
EBOS great company as well. Like Iceman says- both are great long term holds in any portfolio.
Media says
Heavyweight Fisher and Paykel Healthcare almost single-handedly drove the New Zealand sharemarket down nearly half a per cent as health stocks were hit overseas.
Sentiment not too positive on health stocks apparently
Good advice. I'll hold the line for a while longer. Logically, given that the world is nowhere near on top of Covid, one has to think FPH is going to have turbo-charged revenues for another couple of years at least. If it uses the money wisely - consolidating market share, diversifying product range, perhaps even acquisitions - then the future should be bright.
Stock Takes: What's behind Fisher & Paykel's sinking share price?
16 Sep, 2021
By: Tamsyn Parker
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's recent share price weakness is being blamed on a change in recommendations for Covid treatment out of the United Kingdom.
The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) indicated CPAP therapy should be the standard care for Covid patients rather than Fisher & Paykel's high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO).
The findings were based on two controlled trials conducted in the midst of the UK's Covid pandemic which found CPAP therapy reduces the need for intubation in Covid-19 patients but HFNO does not provide any benefit over standard low-flow oxygen therapy.
JP Morgan analysis on the issue noted this was a "surprising and disappointing result for F&P". But said at this stage they did not expect clinical guideline in other jurisdictions to follow the UK's lead until the results of the trial were peer reviewed and published.
"The peer view process is likely to help clarify some concerns with the results including whether the relatively high rate of cross-over between the therapy groups or the lack of a clear protocol for escalating patients to intubation was likely to have had any bearing on the results."
JP Morgan estimate the impact on sales to the UK by F&P as a result of the change in guidance will only be small.
"We estimate sales for the UK account around 4 per cent of F&P's pre-Covid revenues from consumables for the humidification of ventilate patients. Given the small size of UK revenues and the fact the previous NICE guidelines recommended against HFNO for Covid patients, we believe the latest alert is unlikely to have a material impact on group earnings."
Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly said the situation suggested there could be a bit more consolidation to come in F&P's share price.
"It's more raising a question than saying the treatment is no longer valid." But still he said investors had to take the issue seriously.
NICE already had a negative recommendation for HFNO of F&P , now they have given conditional recommendation for CPAP over HFNO while acknowledging the difficulties both at patient level and at hospital level with CPAP ventilation . Only negative is that F&P expected to get positive recommendation for its HFNO which they didn't get ...but still its being seen as beneficial as it is alternative to CPAP ventilation due to patient and hospital reasons .
CPAP is much more difficult on the patient as its much more uncomfortable . Also hospitals need better trained staff for administering it while having both choices available .
Though some CPAP consumables are produced by F&P too .
On the whole not the result F&P wanted as their HFNO didn't get thumbs up as all thought but should not effect them too much .
$ 34 to $ 31 is overreaction IMHO ....CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES !
"The number of organisations who have published evidence based guidelines recommending the use of NHF for COVID-19 patients continues to grow:
- World Health Organisation
- National Institutes of Health
- National Health Commission of the Peoples Republic of China
- Surviving Sepsis Campaign
- Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society
- European Respiratory Society
- International expert consensus statement
- Expert recommendations from a French panel consisting of members from various intensive care societies "
From F&P website ...they have many positive recommendations too :t_up:
While it might be interesting to discuss the daily ripple of price movements, at the end of the day it is as consequential as discussing the ripples in the ocean when dealing with the impact of climate change ...
Just looked at a 10 year chart of FPH (and yes, I used a log-scale) ... and it appears that Covid provided a bit of tailwind for the FPH price (lifting it above the red mean line). It appears as well that SP development did now drop back to the mean ... i.e. we are exactly back to pre-Covid SP growth. Obviously - there may or may not follow some sort of undershoot.
Attachment 12968
However - in my view no need to worry about the daily share price jitter (unless you are a trader).
PS: Sorry you need to turn your head to fully appreciate the graph. No idea why the forum SW choose to flip the graph by 90 degrees :)
I think you if are new to investing or worried about the current share price movements, this post by BlackPeter is a perfect reminder to think long term on these type of stocks with incredible track records.
So go on, load that chart and have a look. It's worth the sore neck :p
"Does Fisher Paykel make CPAP machines?
The F&P ICON+ Auto is the fully featured Auto CPAP which combines all of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's leading clinical technologies including our advanced auto-adjusting algorithm and SensAwake Technology."
"Homecare: CPAP Devices
F&P SleepStyle™Latest
F&P SleepStyle™
HC150
HC150 Humidifier
Product Code: HC150
ICON+ AutoSupported
ICON™+ Auto
https://www.fphcare.com/us/products/.../cpap-devices/
Recent recommendation of NICE is about CPAP in hospital setting and that too in favour of famed F&P 's HFNO therapy ...simple words using CPAP non invasive therapy over Nasal High Flow Therapy of F&P for standard covid patients in hospitals requiring ventilation support to help with respiratory discomfort or insufficiency
They do have CPAP machines for OSA for home use
[QUOTE=Jaa;910634]Very interesting, thanks for posting.
I will just note that while UK may only be 4% of revenues in itself, it's health recommendations are very influential and could impact global demand.[/QUOTE
"Given the small size of UK revenues and the fact the previous NICE guidelines recommended against HFNO for Covid patients, we believe the latest alert is unlikely to have a material impact on group earnings."
Hope that clarifies ....IMO it can be seen small positive that new guidelines are not against HFNO but as second choice
[QUOTE=Jaa;910657]Thats what their random actual user trials have come out with that HFNO has marginal or no advantage over regular hospital oxygen but CPAP helps better but they have noted in their recommendation that CPAP is not easily tolerated by patients also needs advanced training to hospital staff so NHS hospitals can offer both choices where ever feasible , can use HFNO to wean away from CPAP , during meal breaks and also on fatigue of helmet type masks etc . Also note from NICE website that these new updates to their recommendation are dated 2nd Sept 2021 .
Here to add that there are many other reputable institutions recommending HFNO for Covid respiratory support including WHO