They already do that. The Toke permit (PEP 38499) is a recent example. An extremely promising permit to have a share of.
Printable View
Thanks for that, Unicorn, it's always good to have a knowledgeable opinion on the oil prospects. My point, however, is that there has been a lot of discussion on this thread to the effect that since the start of Tui production, NZO has got more money than it needs. M and A has been discussed, particularly in light of the background of the new board member. My query is rather whether NZO might buy into existing permits/licences, either in NZ or elsewhere.
If NZO are serious in thier stated intention to raise the share price they need to be proactive. This morning (so far) the buy & sell queue will match at $1.16 because someone will hit the buy quote at $1.16. If nobody enters a bid at $1.17 before 10.am then the opening price will be $1.16 down 1 cent. This is absurd given record oil prices mentioned in the papers radio etc. It also falls into the hands of the professional trader or broker who is accumulating a stake and wants the share price to NOT rise.
If NZO's broker (who has been given permission to accumulate under the terms of a buyback) bid $1.18 then the share price will open at $1.17.
This process needs to be looked after by a professional broker.
NZO management are failing shareholders miserably.
They will not release dividend policy or protect the shareprice or actively take action to achieve the stated aim of option conversion and the inflow of funds that could be spent on exploratory acreage / producing assets etc.
They seem to think that "presentations" work. Wrong market interaction and buying raise the share price. Their is huge amounts of money being generated. Why state last year that you want the options converted and do nothing.
The presentations are not working - Abn ambro and First NZ do not cover NZO and issue research - so they will not be telling clients to buy.
What does work is market action that generates a rising share price and positive sentiment.
Do not hide behind presentations any longer as a "demonstrable course of action" - do something that will work - buy the shares if you think they are seriously undervalued and worth over $1.50
Please put the shareholders money where the managements mouth is and do a buyback.
I would also ask all shareholders to email or phone nzo immediately and ask when a buyback will occur using $5 $10 of the $180? cashflow generated when "all funds are in place for our 3 major projects"
Do not let them hide anymore you own part of this company! (I have emailed & phoned & intend to at least once a month going forward)
Ladies and gentlemen EXPECTED in nog language means good intentions and in the fullness of time. Now as a follow on but will be seen as a change of subject----
Actually it is this extra time requirement coming from every quarter,except TUI, that leads me to believe that NZo needs to evolve the NZOOD into NZOOE in a ratio fair to both heads and options to allow for this time slippage. Also as NZO is hughly undervalued the heads need continuing support from options to head off what could be a steal takover.
As a disclaimer i would say my personal NZO stake is about neutral given less shares on issue if options laspe should compansate in head lift.However it is irrsponsible to expose the heads to any chance of a cheap takeover just for a short term short in the arm.If the heads were somewhere north of 2-50 to 3 dollars this option pretection would be less essential.
Comments.
http://www.nzog.net/contactus
is the internet address for shareholder enquiries - there are only four boxes to fill out.
dsurf,will do but lets wait for now until after the half is out,could be some stated direction there.Expected late March or thereabouts.
Spot price closed over USD 100!Code:Commodity Price Change % Time
WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.) 100.740 0.730 0.73 14:47
Its not looking good for pass the parcel. I would suggest the sounds of silence be the band, and beleave it if you like the tune played. They now dont care about the share holders, they have enough swill in the trough to last for ages without worrying about you lot. Whatever happened to that SHEALAH that was to keep you up to date with what was going on?. It surprizes me that some people are now actually starting to wake up when i thought that some people can be fooled all the time. Macdunk
Not trading at present. Buys 117/ sells 116
NZO
21/02/2008
MINE
REL: 1001 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Disclosure Notice
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that at 1400 hours on 20 February,
the 12-1/4 inch section of the Kupe South 6 (KS-6) well had reached a depth
of 2,862m MDRT (measured depth from rotary table). The planned total depth
for the section is 2,935m MDRT. Upon completion, the 9-5/8 inch casing will
be run and cemented.
Drilling began at 22:40 hrs on 19 December 2007. Progress of all three
development wells in permit PML 38146 is summarised as follows:
Well 22 inch 17 inch 12.25 inch 8.5 inch
KS-6 560m 2,000m
KS-7 566m 2,000m 3,116m
KS-8 568m 2,184m 3,429m
Each of the three production wells will be drilled by the ENSCO 107 jack-up
rig to a vertical depth of approximately 3,400 metres.
The Kupe Project drilling campaign is being undertaken on a "batch-drilling"
basis. This process involves completing the same section of each of the three
wells before proceeding to the subsequent section and is a more efficient
approach than drilling the wells separately. Drilling of the three wells is
expected to take around five months to complete.
The Kupe Project is located within permit PML38146 in the offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand, approximately 30km off the coast. The development will
comprise production wells tied into an unmanned offshore platform, a 30 km
pipeline to shore, and an onshore processing station. The Kupe Project is
expected to be completed by mid-2009 and produce approximately 254 petajoules
of natural gas, 1.1 million tonnes of LPG and 14.7 million barrels of light
oil (condensate).
End CA:00160783 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-02-21:10:01:08
Ensco states in its Rig Status Report that Origin have also
three one-well options with it's current Kupe contract.
Does anyone know what they will be used for (one might be
Mohomoho, but what are the others?)???
I am totally against any suggestion of extending the exercise date of the options. You can't go shifting the goalposts, or announcing an extension of playing time, just a few minutes before the game finishes. "Options" are just what they say, and they are a speculative investment. Buyers know the rules of the game. The issuance of new options would be a different matter of course, requiring shareholder approval.
Besides, why expect the company (us shareholders) to be interested in having more capital injected into the company when it clearly has totally adequate funding? Capital is a most expensive source of funding.
DISC: Hold 80k NZO. Have held/traded NZOOD in the past - and made money - but ditched them months ago when I could see the direction things were heading.
[QUOTE=COLIN;
Besides, why expect the company (us shareholders) to be interested in having more capital injected into the company when it clearly has totally adequate funding? Capital is a most expensive source of funding.
DISC: Hold 80k NZO. Have held/traded NZOOD in the past - and made money - but ditched them months ago when I could see the direction things were heading.[/QUOTE] Its nice to see you are on to it. Why have more capital tied up in a company as secretative as this.
Its blind mans buff right now, without diluting the existing shares with more just to have capital sitting in the bank with no clear direction of forward direction. I cant see even the most gullible swallowing the bait. If they used profits for a buy back, which would raise the sp to allow the options to be excercised then they would be back to square one with a higher sp and happy shareholders. I dont think they are smart enough for that if i did i would buy into it myself. Macdunk
Duncan duncan duncan.. have you misled some of us or is that i typo i see.
You referr to shareholders as us. does that mean you are now the proud holder of shares in nzo?
other week your system said there was a buy signal around $1.10 (i think) then your trailing stop loss kicked in and spat you out at $1.11 (not enough buyers at $1.12 where you stop loss should have been). Meanwhile, oh great MD, you have missed the surge from around a $1.00 where the smart investors jumped in to now around $1.15 or whatever it is. Big disapointment in your system there big guy. I was hoping your unique system was going to prove me and everyone else wrong.
I think your wrong about clear direction MD. you have known the direction for the last 3 or 4 years. WEhat has happened is delays with Pike and increase in capex for Kup and Pike. Pretty much par for the course by most accounts.
What you seem to think is what are they going to do with all the money. Isnt that dependant on many variables, such as farm-ins to be negotiated, drilling rigs availability, prices, new permits, possible aqusitions, mergers and the list goes on. Many of which do and should mean in confidential until the time is right to inform the market.
on a slight sperate note. The word "expected" from nzo i have found in many cases to be nore more than hot air. going back around 3 years ago if i am not mistaken. i am sure most posters know what i mean. I certainly dont want a repeat of that. That is when TR lost my vote of confidence as a person.
Dr Who - you have that reliably? Broker bias and a 30% gain if a few names removed?
Colin - I tend to agree but they have extended the options before and i was annoyed as I had sold mine off juts weeks prior!
hmm, i see, its a quote from someone else. initially i was a real shock for the macdunksta to hop on board the nzo train.. anyway... what you should consider in your trading strategy is take away any personal views and simply trade using your now famous TA system. That way you could have mad a cool 15% gain in less than a month with more to come.
Nice of you to take notice NITA but dont forget the 5% stop loss. I am not a shareholder only hold one share PEM which i paid to much for simply on a take over or merger hunch. Its gone in to a trading halt so at least i got that right even although my timing was wrong. I fully expect a few mini crashes followed at the end of the year with a big one so other than a few mini plays i am on the sidelines. Macdunk
Tim23, those original options that were extended (can't remember if they were OA's or OB's) were issued with the reasonable expectation (ie noises made by NZO) that they would not expire until after the Opito wildcat was drilled. The drill was delayed so to be fair to optionholders the Co. was able to delay the expiry date till after the drill was completed. I don't think the current options were issued under any expectations so would be surprised if NZO are able to (let alone have any interest in) extending their life. Besides, as someone else has said, the Co. is fully funded now so why would they, or headholders (unless they also held options), have any interest in diluting the company?
You may be right. I guess it all depends on what their aim is. Do they need the options to be converted. Previous indications are that they have a strong desire to but that may have changed. If i recall, the word aqusition was on the cards but again, that may have also changed. Either way, rock n roll.
First NZ are covering NZO and have prepared research via Credit Suisse. Jason Familton (Wellington Office of NZ) is the contact person. You can pick this up via the NZOG website - please refer to the Investors Section, then try Brokers/Research Reports. McDouall Stuart have also prepared new research. I am aware of two other brokers preparing new or updated research. All the research prepared thus far is at a heatlhy premium to the SP of today.
I am sure something will be said about dividends in the near future. The company will be aware that shareholders and the market wil be looking for direction on this very important point.
Have some faith in the new executive team. Contrary to the views of expressed by others on this site, they are with NZOG to do a job, and I have every conviction that they will come through for the shareholder and the company. My understanding is that they are incentivised and motivated to do so, and with reputations added to or negated by the company'ssuccess or failure,, there is plenty at stake for the entire team now employed by NZOG.
David Salisbury promised better communication. Regular updates and "presentations" are a part of that, and surely is demonstration that he is delivering. I am sure there is plety more to come, with the next couple of months expected to be significant in terms of the amount news flow and the content of this.
It is a time to be supportive, and showing confidence, even if the oil price was at $US90, rather than $US100.
Thanks Peter F,
The PR machine is in first gear and judging by those comments, expect to be in overdrive very shortly. Barring unforseen cirmcumstances nzo will prove incredibly cheap at these prices.
discl. Not buying any more as most of my money is invested heavily in another business
Something has just occured to me why the half is delayed till end march or April.
On the last presentation i commented about yesterday it said that production from TUI to 18 feb was 8.6 mmbbls and from that it is very reasonable to conclude from earlier reports that TUI is fireing away at at least 50000 a day. So on simple maths by 25 march TUI will have produced 25% of it's present recoverable oil of 41.6 million barrels.
Given by 25 march you have 25% of the supposed total recovered and you are certaintly in full knowledge of the current state of the field,a very accurate summary can then be made to conclude if the field is the size of 41.6 or is more likely some other figure.
In any event i am betting on a new field estimate about that time,or perhaps before to come out with the half year report.
PPP is a possibility! May not have Kupe, but it does have Maitland.
btw Digger, I sent you a private message the other day ... if you haven't come across it yet, click on the "Private messages" tag up the top right near where it says "Welcome Digger" and you should get to it in your Inbox.
No to the first question on both counts.
My response is to your post 2781. My response to the majority of your post, is merely an attempt to provide some balance.
Did anyone else hear the little snippet on the 8am news this morning....:
Something like "with oil prices hitting record highs and petrol at the pump going up the Tui oilfield is cashing in...".... "about 10 million barrels produced so far"... "price benchmark over has been over US$100 per barrel for a while"... "NZO net about US$90 per barrell".... and then an interview with someone from NZO..... sorry if this is not reported correctly - I was on a bus when I heard it, and they make a lot of noise.... :o)
And thank you Peter, sincerely. I was impressed with the soundness of your contribution. No histrionics but an objective and balanced statement. Please keep up your input to the forum.
And yes, I also heard the news clip this morning. Thought it might generate a bit more buying interest but I think it has been outweighed somewhat by the negative sentiment that came through on Wall Street overnight.
Yes Colin, news of an economic slowdown + Pickens comment. This $100 / barrel resistence level on the oil chart may be a tough nut to crack. Oil presently back below $100 at $98.57. Was $101 a false break?:(
Quote from NZH today.......
Legendary Oil investor T. Boone Pickens said on Thursday he has a short position on oil and natural gas on expectations that prices will fall in the near term, and analysts said fundamentals may no longer support triple-digit oil.
"More and more people are of the view that crude at $100 is overpriced and simply far detached from market fundamentals," said Ritterbusch...
Oil prices fundamentally (i like that word) overall look strong but not completely. We havent had a decent correction yet which means the longer it goes without one the bigger the correction will be. I am picking a range of USD75 to USD160 this year. higher if the yanks do something stupid.
i think the $100 mark will soon be a non issue. There is no news that the world is collapsing because of high oil prices. Far more concern is on the us ecenonmy as a whole and the subprime market.
i remember when many of us predicted prices could go to $100 a few years ago many people laughed. Now it has almost be totally accepted by the richer nations as almost a non issue. that alone suggest there is plenty more rises to come.
one thing that is almost a certaintly. inflation is on the rise and likely to get a lot worse.
Yes sure Nita, at best that news item quote I posted can only be taken as the present and short term future view.
At the moment some commentators are at a view that the oil price is oversold and obviously Picken is shorting on this possibilty that some sort of correction is close at hand.
What is going to happen in the longer period in the future is anyones guess...there is too many variables in play to accurately guess the mid /longer term outcome. As you say it only takes a silly action from a country / or a powerful group, and the price could dramatically alter.
Colin - Wall Street has nothing to do with the share price! Its the chart that tells you where the share price is heading and of course the stop losses, 5%, blue eyed brigade (whoever they are?) behaviour etc etc
TIM, Wall st has everything to do with market sentiment which can and is moved in unexpected ways. [ Extreme example] APOLLO mining company on the asx in the sixties rose and dropped 5% every time an APOLLO rocket went up and down. The blue eyed brigade never noticed to busy working out the fundamentals to even think of it. Its herd behaviour overpriced to underpriced for no good reason. Learn to take your eyes of that rail track brain of yours and look over the fence to see what might incite the herd to move in the next direction. NZO were $1-30 three years ago the only reason they are not higher than that right now is market perception, not fundamentals. Macdunk
congrats md. i cant beleive i am saying this but your are right. well at least correct in the sense that nzo isnt priced on fundamentals its priced on market perception. well done. on that matter, fundamentals give investors an opprtunity to buy stocks at undervalued prices.
well done md.. you are starting to to make sense... just dont blow it by opening your mouth and removing any doubt.
I would have thought that the price of oil at $100 pb is a reflection of the falling value of the US$ as much as anything. Most currencies seem to be appreciating against US$ and so the oil increase is not so dramatic.
Likewise, the growing income for NOG must be tempered by the fact that the income is in US$ which is depreciating against NZ$.
zacman
Just saw a report from a major Australian broking house valuing AWE's 42.5% stake in Tui at A$826m. That makes NZO's stake in Tui worth NZ$279m or $1.05 per NZO share with PRC and Kupe thrown in for the other 13 cents.
Now that's the kind of coverage you need to get this puppy moving along. Alas, the company has turned too many people off over the years by its attitude.
BALANCE, I see you have a red square under your name i wonder if you earned it by being critical of FISHER FUNDS. I used to have one of those for some reason but been given the green again. Maybe you upset the natives by being critical of NZO or said something that upset TR. Macdunk
Balance, cheers for that information. That should be enough for you to buy(?), as in the long run the wealth will be recognized in the shareprice, right?
Zacman, your right the oil price is inversely related to the USD, but it wasnt more than a decade ago that we were seeing $15 a barrel oil and the USD hasnt fallen 80% or so...
Oil price has definately more than offset the appreciating NZD/USD. Oil at $70 a barrel when NZD was 70 cents was $100NZD...its getting up near $100USD which is like almost 125ish NZD...so i think the POO increase with declining USD has been worth it...but your right, and i think some commentators are saying that it is due for a correction short term as fundamentally (supply etc) hasnt changed much, and blaming 100 dollar oil from declining USD has overshot...others thoughts?
But yeah, generally, im liking NZO stride atm. Imagine what the sp is going to do spudding of momoho, just hope the market doesnt poo itself around that time! Options are only low 30's cents out..i think options are do-able, but a risky bet for return.
Latest 'presentation' is pretty good too..and it gives direction. It will be good to see how they plan their next potential drilling campaign for 09.
Also, it will be sweet to see how the bidding goes for acerage of the taranaki permits...and whether they take a larger stake with some partners. Say 20% would be nice.
I agree with zacman
Have heard/read somewhere (cant remember where) that OPEC have discussed the option of doing bizz in EURO's. Dont know the outcome, but I know Iran have been doing oil bizz in EURO's. Politicial maybe, but how much of a actual could it become ??
BB
at present, NZO is raking in the cash as we know, and no one expected tui pumping at max capacity during maximum price of oil, and no one knows how long the poo will remain at these levels..... what with the turmoils troubling the world. so maybe the chiefs at NZO are thinking the same thing, which might mean why they are tight lipped about whats planned for the revenue from tui. this tui well has turned into an absolute goldmine, way beyond the dreams of shareholders and directors. here we are calling for our cut, which is very reasonable IMHO, but i think the management arent really sure at this point in time what to do...... meaning...... they had plans and expectations in place years ago about what could be and hopefully will be, and these expectations have been superceded now.
so...... what to do with the extra windfall?
obviously there are alot of faithful shareholders who have sat on the sideline supporting this co for a loooong time and they want and deserve a reward for their monies and time invested. but maybe there is now an opertunity to do something on a grander scale which the directors never dreamed of until now.
if this is the case, then this could explain the lack of comunication about the future in hard facts and figures, because the co is exploring new avenues that they never dreamed of.
while this is happening, the shareholders are starting to put preasure on management for some news, any news, direction on "where are we going?"
in the meantime, share turnover volume has increased as has the shareprice, but in a slow but steady way. there is too much cash coming in at the moment to keep the sp down forever, but there is lack of news also which is holding back a faster rise in sp.
sooner or later, this co becomes a takeover target, or management discloses a thorough plan for the future, as the cash rolls in, the time for management to state its position and future draws closer.
something big will happen, and IMHO it will be this year.
a take over, or detailed explanation of how the cash will be spent.
then we the shareholders can stop hoping and start planning.
I notice that a 5k trade was done bang on 5 p.m. at a cent down, to 117, after trading at 118 for most of the day. Makes me just a little suspicious. Is someone artificially depressing the price while they build up a significant stake? Someone else made some comments to this effect recently, too.
Mind you Colin has a point.
The markets closing time was brought forward 15 mins to have "market orders" only during the match up period.
This was brought in to stop the very manipulation which still occurs.
The ASX doesn't have the same end of day process as the NZX, & believe me it's worse on the ASX, & i don't mean the normal end of quarter window dressing.
I'd even like to see trades "during the match up period" to be disallowed if they are below VWAP.
A cent here or there doesn't seem like much, until it affects the charts!
I suppose everybody has seen and read the new report from McDuall Stuart dated
31 January 2008 on the NZOG website at http://www.nzog.net/news/2007/McDoua...te%20Feb08.pdf.
21 page document, here are a few points:
The company has already flagged its commitment to further exploration-led
growth. A commitment to a $20-25m drilling campaign in FY09 will
represent a four-fold increase to FY07 exploration spend and a neardoubling
of FY08 spend.
...............
lots of detail about tui production,kupe,prc:
........
Should deliverability
remain at close to 50,000 bbl/day for the remaining five months of FY08
and operator remain comfortable (in terms of reservoir management) with
this rate of production, FY08 production would exceed 15 mmbbls.
..............
We estimate that Tui will have achieved nominal payback by
March, just seven months into production.
........................................kupe:
The JV plans to drill Momoho following the
completion of Kupe development drilling.
.............................
If NZOG
incurred a 100% failure rate on any and all forward exploration, and also
saw no further upgrades to any of the Tui, Pike River or Kupe CFAs, DCF of
risked P50 cash flows still implies NAV of $1.45/share.
............................
I don't have the info but I'm sure the share price only reached $1.30 mid last year not 3 years ago as Dunacn states - in fact I'd be really annoyed if I was wrong!! Help!
Kupe KS6 development well should next week start final section of the batch drill production well.
Any thoughts if there will be a production test at this juncture before proceeding with final stages into KS7?
KS8 into the northern section has potential to increase reserves according to the McDouall Stuart Energy report.
M
The shareprice did reach $1.30 about 3 years ago and the nzooc reached about 60 cps.
Duncan is correct and most likely will never to forget his experience of buying high and selling low. This occured during his time line theory which he broke his golden rule. A bit like a woman scourned hence his dislike for nzo management.
in saying that, one needs to put eveything into perspective. effectively the sp now is what it was 3 years ago. that is if you want to look at the worse case scenario. if you want to look at the glass as half full then you will know that the sp hit a low of 25 or 26 cps only 5 years ago. so for the ones that brought at that point and still hold have made an astonishing 400% gain over 5 years. average 80% gain each year. yet we still hear how nzo is not doing well. watch out when they do.
actually, last year the sp was cranking into overdrive hen got wammied by the correction. however, while many other stocks are in a little meltown mode, nzo is going gangbusters. ods are now a 40% chance of being in th money. if that is the case thn the oppies are a steal at current prices. I would be intrested on where other people saw the chances of options converting. Unicorn, any opinion?
Ouch!!
PS Are you sure?
TIM, The share price was exactly $1-25 three years ago to date. Makes you wonder what you are raving on about when the market was in a bull run for the last two and a half years. Hope that you still participate in pass the parcel. Only having you on mate goodluck with the options. Macdunk
Macdunk is right. Three years ago, a lot of punters got overexcited, and pushed the shareprice up too far, too fast. At $1.30 or so it was looking very speculative. That was the time to sell down. It has taken the last 3 yrs for the reality to catch up to the hype. In fact the pendulum has swung too far the other way to a point where NZO is now undervalued.
Some benefits / profits which NZOG gave to its shareholders were “invisible”. Macdunk’s case could be a good example: - Because he held NZO two years ago, he consequently had NZOOD. He sold his NZOOD then bought PPP.ax , he then sold his PPP with more than double the money and bought into AGM and ………....... Now he has more than triple of the money in A$. These profits are from NZOOD, “indirectly and invisibly” from NZO.
Cheers
So $1.25 3 years ago is actually $1.30? so I was correct after all??
Tim, the McDouall Stuart report, page 18, says the maximum share price in the last 3 years was $1.32.
actually about 3 years ago there was a pump and dump. 1m oc's went through then the price came a tumbling down. some know who the seller was........moving along
Having bought NOG @ .39 in 1999, I then sold a parcel 3 years ago @ $1.30 to pay for a private train trip through Eastern Europe - my trip of a lifetime and still holding NOG.
Cheers
I cannot speak for the last 3-4 years, ive been here for a year and abit...
NZO has been a great trading stock and a poor investing stock over those years...
In the year since ive been here, NZO has performed as a company... It's SP hasnot performed... Im coming back to trade Momoho...
Its time for NZO to do a share buy back, just like what PPP is proposing...
:cool:
.^sc
manxman,
Let me just cover my back here...
'theres a rumor of Pan doing a share buy back'...
PPP is valued at 30CPS NPV, the company has no direction and money growing off trees... On face value it would seem appropriate to do a share buy back... I cannot confirm one is coming though...:)
....
A share buy back from NZO, is another ball game...
and im much less certain of one coming for NZ oil especially while we have Pike rolling along and market uncertainty...
:cool:
.^sc
Unless my understanding of reasonably plain english is incorrect, NZO will not even be considering a share buy-back - they are an 'explorer/producer' and will look to leverage off their current production success with TUI, future success with PRC and Kupe, to expand their turf.
Thats what exploration coys do....
To do a share buy-back is an admission of defeat. i.e lets give back the money as we don't think we can do much with it. Now...for PPP, that might well be true :D:D
Shrewd Crude - " there's a rumour of Pan doing a share buy back." I'd love to know where you heard that, or are you just spreading a bit of mischief ?
Shrewdie......mischievous??.......Never!!:):):)
He is as pure as the driven snow, that lad....;););)
Arjay
Remember at the time all the anxiousness that NOG wouldn't get the 60c options (NOGOC's) over the line?
I remember the spike over $1.30 well, i also remember it sliding back to 90c after the option money came in (some $42m from memory)
Xerof
Whilst a share buyback for a new producer seems a tad strange, NZO have publicly stated getting the options exercised is a priority.
Why not use "current cashflow" in this manner if it gets a high % of the options exercised.
It is alot of $$$$ we are talking about here!
nzo will do zip re dividend and/or share buyback until both cutout all accrued losses and until after options.
meanwhile they keep racking in the $ - lots of them.
M
Shasta, different set of circumstances last time - at that point they were still in development stage and really wanted/needed the cash - this time (unless they have very big ambitions) they need cash like a hole in the head.
Time will tell I guess.
If you have seen the chart published projecting forward oil and gas production levels, once TUI begins to taper, Kupe roars to the rescue.
This baby is a cash till - I just hope it doesn't belong to Arkwright :)
The 'problem' with the options conversion is the large dilutionary impact, so realistically the SP probably needs to be well north of $2.00 to firstly really incentivise oppie holders to cough up $1.50 and hold, and secondly, to keep the post conversion price above $1.50, otherwise we will have a whole new set of pissed off shareholders
Yes - perfectly legally - watch the depth and you will see good operating. If NZO put a little money into the market eg 0.5% of free cash flow from this financial year, then they could easily stop this. They are not concerned about the technical aspects of the market and do not have a clue about these things or thay would have initiated a buyback last year.
A buyback is normally "on market" at whatever is on the sell side
A "capital return" is a pro rata purchase from all shareholders.
An on market buy back would remove sell orders and hence drive the SP upwards. Both the heads & oc's would move upwards, ie both benefit.
Also a buyback does not have to involve huge amounts of money, for example 10m would see the options in the money & then 10 times the money returned to the company. Very simple formula.
I forgot this way – buy back on the market to “stimulate” the share prices. Thanks dsurf.
Cheers
Xerof - $1.55 plus should encourage people to take up there options is the heads were $2 then the options would be worth 50c!
Yeah, well this is all hypothetical - the point is the dilutionary impact is horrendous if they all get converted, so my pick is the price stays under the strike until expiry
I can now simply predict the cash amount of the “Receipts from product sales and related debtors” for the 3rd quarterly cash flows – 08.
Here is the information; readers can do their own calculations.
· Payment 30 days, March shipments can be ignored.
· To (25 February 2008): 8.8 million barrels shipped.
· To (31 December 2007): 5.8 million barrels shipped.
· (From Dec-07 quarterly activity report): “Payments outstanding on December shipments take NZOG's total net revenue* from five months production to approximately $84.2million.” – cash received $62.1million (Cash receivable is NZ$22.1million)
Cheers
Two ways to look at this. NZO do a buy back at market, and cancel the shares. The result would be share price goes up, options get converted the company has an equal of number of shares no dilutionary effect at all with happy holders. The price would hover around convertion level at that point. The other way is do nothing say nothing piss the shareholders off, who would then have nothing to discuss other than peak oil, or how much its worth in a dropping USD.
My opinion is, why look after the share holders now by doing something nice when you are up to your armpits swilling in the trough. My pick is the sounds of silence playing a tune at PASS THE PARCEL. Thats the gamble you guys are taking hope i am wrong and the company does the right thing very shortly. Macdunk
Can just see it.Quote:
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZOG) is pleased to advise that the company's
interim financial statements are now expected to be available on Wednesday 27
February 2008.
The New Zealand Harald today reported that New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd had suffered a massive cost overun in Head Office Expenses. Chief Executive David Salisbury had apparently been forced to buy a bigger wheelbarrow to move the cashflow to the bank.
The Harald pointed out that this was yet another of an ongoing series of cost overruns.
Sgt Chrislee of the SFO warned NZO that any release of information would be taken down, twisted, and used in evidence against them. For this company "All news is bad news" he said.
NZO closed 3 cents down when some boy scout needing a new woggle sold five shares immediately before the close, thus dropping the value of the company by $10 million on the basis of a fifty dollar trade.
One of the best post I have read on this site for years :)
As a shareholder I am absolutely wild that NZO management have indicated that a report will be released within two days. I've been use to waiting two weeks and them some over the years.
How can I organise myself in just two days. How can we play McDunks parcel game if we only have two days to play. I'm going to complain to the NZ Herald. Where were the NZ Herald sources close to NZO when you really needed them.
Uggh.......
Dsurf, Colin et al
Yes, these share price movements are quite amusing. About a week ago (I don't remember the exact day), the price was definitely on the up. Sellers at 118c virtually taken out, and suddenly a small sale or two at 117. Wind taken out of the market's sails.
And that's why I tend to disagree with you Colin. Holders and traders can only put up with so much of this before going on to greener pastures.
While NZO can't really be blamed for this, Macdunk's pithy analysis of their options is on the mark.
Nita is not expected to pull the trigger on the oppies this week. However, baring a another quick dumping on wall st it now seems a small risk for bigger reward as long as you can fund the conversion. if not then best not to touch then.
4 months to go. some think its not much time. i disagree and although i appreciate the time value is speeding up the closer we get to june 30th, its far from over.
pr machine just moved from 1st to 2nd gear so hold on to your hats all.
I sold my PPP options too soon last year because I saw the clock ticking fast trouble is the buyers saw it ticking slower than me!
on what NZO's shareprice will be at the close tomorrow. If it's not at least $1.20, think I'll give up on them.
What sort of logic is this? Tomorrow is nothing special even with the 1/2 report.An investment in NZO is best considered in full,so look at holding until all three projects are in full swing. TUI has been a hugh success but so will PIKE and the biggest of the lot will be KUPE. The best thing about tomorrow is that it is one more day closer to full production.
It would be far better to estimate the SP on 30 june 2010. OK i will about between 4 and 5 dollars.
The $1.07 price is largely irrelevant. 9,000 shares traded to jump from $1.02 to $1.07 can make that figure misleading. Overseas trade after that was around the $1.03 mark which is a clearer reflection.
In saying all that, once senses a bit more anticipation and buzz howvering around the likes of PPP and NZO. Contrary to 3 years ago where is was disapointment after disapointment with news. Now its the reverse where NZO are only putting mostly good news (bar the odd one). Pike still worries me but i also sense that any real bad news with Pike will only occur after June 30th as production has been put back.
I missed out on the options below the 5 cps but hey you cannot win them all.
Hi Queenie
I wasn't going to make this post til thursday night, but your frustration has got me going! On Fri Jan 25 I made the guess/wish on this thread, that NZO would increase by 1c per day to mid-year. Well a few negative things have happened to markets since then, and NZO is still the victim of price-manipulators, but in 17 days trading NZO has gone from 107 to 119. OK by me. I have bought more OD's! The trend-line gives a mid-year price of around 175, valuing the OD's at 25c, less risk and interest. Nita seems to be thinking along similar lines, though she's probably a bit more experienced and wary than me, if you get my drift.
And as Malcolm points out the ASX price has been consistently higher than NZX in recent days, they just know more.
Digger's onto it, tho a few 'probably's' might be in order. The best thing about tomorrow tho, is that you're a millionaire whatever happens on the markets.
I like your optimism Digger!!
[QUOTE=Sumnerned;187018]Hi Queenie
I wasn't going to make this post ........... Nita seems to be thinking along similar lines, though she's probably a bit more experienced ....... than me ......
[QUOTE]
Summation,
I totally agree with you, and by her own admission, Nita has a (w)hole lot more experience than any of us ...... check out her earlier postings.
Nita is definitely on to it ...... and knows how to "drive" a long shot and no doubt hopes to hole-out, as we all do, with a 10-bagger.
from the nzo website and sends another mixed message re likely production by june 30
TUI AREA OIL PROJECT (PMP 38158: NZOG 12.5%)Document Actions The Tui Area Oil Project is located in PMP38158 in the offshore Taranaki Basin, New Zealand, approximately 50km off the coast and in water depth of approximately 120m. It is the country’s first stand-alone offshore oil development.
Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
To 25 February 2008: Approx 8.9 million barrels produced, 8.8 million barrels shipped.
NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 1.12 million barrels.
Production since 01 January 2008 has averaged approx 45,000 barrels a day. The 'water cut' - the amount of water being recovered with the oil - has been significantly less than predicted, allowing this high daily production rate to continue. However, the water cut is steadily increasing and production rates are forecast to decline in coming months. NZOG is currently forecasting total production for the 2007/08 financial year to exceed 12 million barrels of oil - NZOG's share approx 1.5 mmbbls.
M
Good news and still rather conservative imo. My guess is 13.5m barrels of oil for 2007/08 financial year. NZO share of 1.7mbo produced baring a mini disaster. The conservative news will only help the sp when the JV realise that 13 - 14 mbo will be produced up to June 30th.
Did anyone pick up the comment about the KUPE gas field on TV3 this morning?? As i am quite deaf was trying to pick it up just listening to TV while trying to put on headset at the same time. By the time i got everything adjusted the news had gone on to something else. Think it was about extra gas needing to be captured.
.
Earlier today oil kicked above US$101 / barrel !!!
Currently sitting about US$100.90 .........
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/48
GO Tui !!!! .......... GO NZOG !!!!
.
Hi Digger
Kupe has been mentioned a lot in articles about Waikato coal seam gas, such as this one
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4416526a10.html
Digger it may be this article (video) on TV3 Sunrise. It is about the gas finds in the Waikato coal seams. They compare it to be on the scale of Kupe.
***The streaming Video from TV3 site is frustratingly slow even with fast broadband.