Didn't they just have a "big drive forward" ? Or at least a lot of restructuring. And aren't they still in limbo?
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Money in the bank is important, but a believable strategy is more important. The captain has frantically adjusted the sails, turned the rudder back and forth and is now busy jumping overboard. I suspect anyone buying in now is going to spend quite some time in purgatory Birmanboy.
Hi all
My experience in a recent WHS AGM was the CEO berating and taking a shareholder to task. Poor showing, so I sold that day. History of this share price has proven my assessment right - most companies that treat owner/shareholders in this way don't deserve support i.e a CEO who can't be questioned without losing his rag. One has to ask if the turn around is so good why would the CEO jump rather than stay and enjoy the cudos and benefits of his genius. Add to that a rather bland discounted offering and semi-enthusiastic staff, with better online competition and my investment dollars will stay in the pocket - for now. Similar fate for Walmart upon which this was modeled.
-dodgy Prior owner/shareholder.
-dodgy
whats there plan a monkey to carry on the fine work of the current ceo or a new dude to inspire us with his grand plans to lift the ware house from the doldrums - option 1 no limbo then option 2 limbo for 2yrs
either way the price should head lower to reflect the overvalued nature of the company and the declining div prospects
Amazing that someone in his position can't hold his **** together for the one meeting in which he has to deal with the public. I think the company is probably better off without him. I suspect he was pushed as Job done is simply not a plausible story...what job done?, the job of making the company earn less money ?
A lot said on this thread re WHS performance over the last few years and its trials and tribulations in this ever changing retail world.
Through Norrice's term and now Powell's plenty of tinkering and strategic reviews and lots of money spent.
AS somebody pointed out on this thread sales are not really growing but margins are shrinking and costs are rising. In other words profits are falling
And the share price is actually only following the earnings (surprise eh)
Over 10 years of declining profits with all this talk of growth. Something wrong?
At best all I can see is a business under pressure but somehow maintaining a reasonable revenue base and in good years making about $50m in profits. Not too bad a return on capital and if paid out in divies a rrasonable return to shareholders
See what I mean re earnings and profits. A PE of about 15/16 most of the time so earnings yield of 6% odd. Hope interest rates stay at low levels.
Winner69.
Bit of fun for you.
Look at Metcash MTS asx chart, and see if you can see when Norrice took over as CEO.!!!! lol.
Wow what a close correlation, remarkable graph, thanks mate.
What I can't understand is why anyone would ascribe a PE of 15-16 to a retail stock in the current environment with their history of EPS declines when you've got stocks like HLG with a far better history, far brighter outlook and much higher dividend yield on a forward PE of only 11, go figure ?
nice chart winner, sums it up nicely.
see analyst target price is 2.48 with 5 out of 6 reco's as sell
anyway I was in a store last night had to laugh at there ticketing on the easter eggs I brought - a 4pk of crème eggs was advertised as 6 bucks odd and a couple of shelves down you could buy the same single eggs at 90c each - go figure guess this is one way to get your margins up lol
anyway ticketing issues looked wide spread on observation probably a head office thing instead of a store issue I would think
You guys really are pushing your bandwagons aye and your all non holders-Lol.
I think even holders can see the obvious from the winner69 chart.
Perhaps it is a reflection on management and online competition or maybe a reflection on the widening divide in NZ. Clearly lower income NZ'ers are more likely to shop at the warehouse and these are the same people who have NOT benefited from NZ's economic recovery. I don't mean to start a political debate, just a theory of why WHS under-performs.
I think the real reason buckles down to internet shopping versing getting out of your chair. Personally I hate shopping, I hate sifting trivially through aisles looking at junk I don't need or even want (this appeals really highly to my girlfriend however). I'd much prefer to sift through the search results of aliexpress and pay a cheaper amount than I would at the WHS. Aliexpress had the springform cake tin I wanted in the right diameter and cheaper than the WHS, briscoes, stevens and cake shops I went to. The main problem was no one stocked 6 inch tins so it was only obvious to buy the cheaper tin in the size I wanted, all I had to do was wait a couple weeks for it to arrive at my door. I think this is the mindset that is gradually coming to be a norm. May it be because people are lazy or that you can target a wider range of specific products rather than wasting your time checking aisles for ones you don't need.
The cake tin was for a cheese press if anyone was wondering. :)
Cool, I made some blue vein cheese a few months back. Didn't properly control the temp and humidity unfortunately so it ended up a bit "hairy"! Online retail is growing but its international online that is really taking off. That could change if the Govt can get a grip on the international tax issues.
The theory doesn't hold water ...why....what are you comparing WHS to? Underperforms in comparison to what else in its sector? Kathmandu, Briscoes, all the other retailers? I would argue that it outperforms most other of its competitors. There is absolutely no sense in comparing apples with oranges. Online shopping is utilized by middle and upper income earners mostly because they have easier access to internet, broadband, time and opportunity. My guess is none of the posters on this forum would go into WHS willingly because we think they are "beneath my position". Its like new car owners making disparaging remarks about the performance and reliability of some old "banger" going too slow on the motorway. All retail is suffering...so what...doesn't mean you cant still extract a good return out of WHS. Diversification means you should have a piece of assorted industries and sectors. Show me a better performer in retail over the long term than WHS.
Take your points.
Surely BGR is better than WHS over any term.
I do think it is important to position yourself in the right sectors. Clearly retail has been suffering as it has headwinds are long term. Much like newspapers and traditional media, wouldn't you wish to avoid them altogether? Maybe another thread for this discussion?
I have WHS in my "have a bit of everything, passive portfolio" because who really knows. But its not a stock you would pick as a winner for the obvious reasons stated here. I'd buy in again for my speculative portfolio if there was a believable strategy formulated. But I can't see it, what is the strategy to get themselves out of the hole of declining profitability?
wouldn't surprise me if the price is still being supported?
Actually the WHS is one shop I do like looking around with all the variety and plenty of man stuff like fishing and automotive etc compared to HLG and BRG which I find quite boring as a guy, I also purchase online through Torpedo 7.
BGR is returning 4.66 WHS is 6.6 on my gross dividend yield website. Here are the retail options...quite a few are struggling. Personally I don't like BRG for a number of reasons. WHS has performed very well for me and I will continue to buy in weakness. AS I have said before .."she may not be the prettiest girl in the room but she loves me".
Retail
Company Name
(Click on name to
go to their website)Share Symbol Dividend
Re-
investment
ProgramType of Business Dividend History Dividends
per share
last year
in NZDDividend
yield
%Share
Price
HistoryCurrent
Share
Price
NZDImportant
NotesBriscoe Group BGR No Retail Details... 0.135 4.660 Details... 2.900 Details... Colonial Motor CMO No Retail Details... 0.350 5.560 Details... 6.300 None Hallenstein Glasson HLG No Retail Details... 0.285 8.770 Details... 3.250 None Kathmandu Holdings KMD No Retail Details... 0.120 8.330 Details... 1.440 Details... Kirkcaldie & Stains KRK No Retail Details... 0.000 0.000 Details... 1.680 None Metro Performance Glass MPG Retail None 0.000 0.000 Details... 1.790 Details... Michael Hill Intl MHI No Retail Details... 0.065 5.420 Details... 1.200 None Pumpkin Patch PPL No Retail Details... 0.000 0.000 Details... 0.280 None Retva Ltd. PPG No Retail Details... 0.000 0.000 Details... 0.000 Details... Smiths City SCY No Retail Details... 0.035 6.480 Details... 0.540 None Veritas Investments VIL No Retail Details... 0.082 7.770 Details... 1.050 None Warehouse Group WHS No Retail Details... 0.190 6.600 Details... 2.880 None Z Energy Ltd. ZEL No Retail Details... 0.220 4.410 Details... 4.990 Details...
when you compare relative performance of the retail stocks in nz last 4yrs bgr is actually the best stock to have owned followed by mhi , whs is second to last
performance would include divs + cap gain
Thanks Birmanboy - useful tables, I hold WHS, HLG & KMD I kind of also include TME in my retail holdings.
In my opinion TME is not a retailer, it is providing a platform and service/facilitating sellers and buyers getting together as opposed to directly selling to buyers. So bit of a jump to refer to them as retailers. However not really that important so don't let me stop your classification. The important thing is are you happy with its performance:)
Just thought I would share my dividend check with you......that's right $6,000,000 (give or take a few dollars) and that's after tax.... oh wait sorry...they must have sent me the Pascoes check by mistake.....:p Now that's a dividend..... Still happy with mine but suffering badly from "mines not as big as yours" syndrome.
Just received an email regarding WHS bond issue, replacing the $100m they have on issue at present, maturing 15/6/15. No mention of yield as going through a 'bookbuild' process, and will giving maturing holders the ability to roll them over. Over-subscriptions up to $125m
Last traded based on a 6% yield (with only just over a month left on them), but coupon of 7.37%. Expect this time around that would be a bit less these days....depending on appetite.....
If you could quickly and accurately ascertain the price of an item by glancing at it you might want to purchase it which could lead to all sorts of supply chain, staffing and stocking issues. Being charged prices that in no way relates to the ticketed prices or any promotional offer, finding stock out of place and reluctant staff who are daydreaming about the end of their shift is all part of the warehouses unique charm. Remove those quirks and it would just be some sort of industrial building lots of people regularly frequent to purchase things.
its a common problem found in a lot of retail so is not a unique issue, I wouldn't consider it good retail
You can buy the same items on sites like Aliexpress and at lower cost but I think The Warehouse should have an advantage in feel good factor being that I can walk out with my sticky little mitts on an item.
As I'm not a shareholder I'm not that bothered in a way. Perhaps they opt to resolve long-running problems or maybe they opt to continue their approach to retailing. They can keep going for a long time but inevitably, one way or another, they will be forced to make a move at some point.
I was referring to buying online with WHS...I've used their online shopping facility a couple of times and its fine. If you were a shareholder you would have been receiving a healthy dividend for your investment. Since you are not its all a bit hypothetical. All business's will have problems at times especially retail...WHS is a good performer when you start comparing it to others in that field. "They have been going for a long time"..yes correct..."they will be forced to make a move at some point" ...that's not very illuminating.....and unfortunately informs us of nothing. If you buy shares in WHS you are investing in an iconic retailer with a huge footprint in the market..92 stores and over 9000 employees plus many NZ SME business's that supply to WHS. In todays world all retail is changing/shrinking/transforming. WHS is holding its own which to my mind is a sign of a strong brand. My suggestion is next time you need something in a budget range get your "sticky little mitts" down to the WHS. Why? Because collectively we need to support NZ business as much as possible. What was that old saying..."the job you save may be your own". The signs are visible everywhere and in every country. As small business gets priced out by overseas competition there needs to be a long transition period to gradually change the educational/training throughput of working people. It is important that we give ourselves as much time as possible to successfully carry out that transition. Otherwise we 'll end up like Greece etc where un-employment is rife, small business employing many people and families has dried up and the workforce hasn't moved forward. So next time you buy something from Aliexpress think about that
Well said BB unfortunately the knockers keep on a knocking, see at least the WHS show loyalty to NZ by using an online search engine in SLI systems.
Very droll!! Well put. If the Warehouse really get their act together, I think they have great share price gain potential ( not to mention dividend) Certainly haven't got that good shopping experience bit sorted yet. Being charged a price at the checkout that in no way resembles the ticket price or any promotional offer happens almost every time I buy something there.
Maybe it's a 'nice surprise' marketing plan.
Disc. Shareholder
I don't think that is a phenomenon found just at WHS.
If you restore income relativity so that the directors and managers are not paid proportionately ever greater amounts than the junior staff, you may get a greater sense of commitment from the juniors. Introduce a wide share purchase/option scheme for more junior staff. Introduce greater job security...etc. If you treat junior staff as commodities, then they will reciprocate. Commodotising staff has been a trend in NZ since the mid-1980's. I think the trend in NZ's income gini coefficient has played its part too...with the result of less social cohesion and commitment from those at the less well-paid end!
Disc: Not a shareholder
I often shop at hallensteins and mention I'm a shareholder and the staff often look at me like I'm speaking Latin do they not teach young people about owning shares?
Interesting situation for those holding the current bond and for all in general. If one was considering applying for the new bond at yield 5.3% to 5.5% I think it is quoted at, why would you not buy the share instead at a much higher rate of return? The risk for each is slightly different but it is the same company and some of these risks are likely to have a similar effect should WHS business continue to stuggle.
Good point trev
Getting 6.1% post tax (dividends) is a lot better than 3.8% post tax (notes) eh .... almost 60% more
Maybe they worried that if the WHS share price falls by 6 cents a year that wipes out the difference ..... meaning taking the safer more secure option could be far better. And some probably think that that 17 cent dividend is not that certain either.
Then again the share price could zoom ahead and they don't share in the capital gains (and probably in this case increased dividends)
Think sums right about that 6 cents ..... not really that much leeway is there?
Well none of us has that crystal ball(wouldn't that be great) but for myself ,universal catastrophe's aside, WHS would seem to be at the bottom of this cycle. They continue to gain sales which would indicate some degree of customer loyalty/satisfaction so I'm looking for a positive outlook as they come out of the capex programme. Would be interested to hear from any current bond holders re their intention to continue to hold.
Someone waited to drop the hammer....one seller of 480,000 at 2.75...just about cleared out all the buyers....(other than the hopeful lurkers). Maybe something afoot. Seems a little out of the ordinary activity.
Spose the big shareholder is happy with this
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-toy-catalogue
But then again Farmers mightn't sell much Lego anyway and this is smoke and mirrors
heading to test multi yr lows at 2.50 very bearish not surprising with an outlook of declining divs and poor margins
Share price bouncing around one year's low. Watching and wondering if Pascoe ready to make their next move. Could be 40 cents upside if they decide to go for 50%?
As Clint would say "are you feeling lucky punk"... could do anything (and probably will do? Looking at 5 year chart looks like good time to be buying but what about all the other variables... As you say Pascoes, NZ dollar drops making imports more expensive, flattish sales etc. However keeps giving a nice dividend(even nicer buying now). If I had any loose change I would be adding a few but portfolio is full and pockets are empty.
WHS.NZX - The Warehouse Group Limited Ordinary Shares
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...ges/spacer.gif Chart period: 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 5 Years Adjusted https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...KUQqPYfA0KM%3d
new CEO with wow credentials
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/223422.pdf
Hope he does better than previous 2 foreigners (mind you one was almost qualified as a local)
Shareholders saw a decent drop in WHS shareprice during both of these gentlemen's tenure
This time is different though
Looks he looks like he has the talent and experience. Some creative licence taken here in my opinion.Disc - not a holder..only time will tell if this tired old brand can be successfully reinvigorated. New broom to sweep out some tired old products and ways of doing things...restructuring costs anyone ?Quote:
Chairman Ted van Arkel said that Nick is a highly qualified retailer with extensive international experience and the skills required to drive profitable growth for TWG from the strong foundations that have been built.
Edit, opps no sorry, I see they have had a $100m refresh programme so we're all good on the freshness of the brand, gee giving things a lick of fresh paint isn't cheap anymore is it ?
W. , Confucius (he's also a foreigner) say SP is merely transitory and no self respecting long term investor will measure worth on shifting sands...true value is measured in return to shareholders in the form of dividends. Only prerequisite is to be able to outlive average wave length of SP cycle. Sears is an American icon. However Kmart bought out Sears in 2005 so he would have had good experience in a discounting/volume environment. Below is 5 year chart for Sears Holdings and underneath WHS...so a similar trajectory. Even a trader could make money here!!!! AND as a dividend its returning me over 10% gross. Secret is (IMHO) buy when its low and accumulate....but then I would say that wouldn't I.
http://charting.nasdaq.com/ext/chart...WD=635-HT=395-
WHS.NZX - The Warehouse Group Limited Ordinary Shares
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...ges/spacer.gif Chart period: 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 5 Years Adjusted https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...CKx26rnQAUM%3d
You don't have to be a believer to make money in the sharemarket...in fact I would argue that actually inhibits success. When we examine our results that's the real measure of whether something has been worthwhile. I've believed in many things over the years such as GFF being a sure bet with food products as a staple... )oh well). I also don't believe in shopping at the WHS much but it sure has been a consistent producer of dividends. However everyone has their own methods so live and learn.
I agree, everyone has their own methods, and what works for one doesn't necessarily work for other people. You can buy share price "trends", or you can buy "dividends" but neither means anything in my view without "growth". Where is WHS growth going to come from?
Ok, so what you want is a Ryman with dividends? Bit limiting in my opinion however I'm sure they are waiting to be found. Mature business quite often run out of growth prospects so return good dividends to compensate. Very difficult to grow mature, large business without some risk and I would rather see WHS going about its business gradually and responsibly. Doesn't matter whether you make money out of growth or dividends..just comes down to philosophy and life circumstances. Dismissing any company as being "unworthy" is a bit simplistic. Your view is just as valid as mine but needs to be recognised as being what it is...yours and as such is framed in and around your circumstances. Other views work in the same fashion. Many investors spend thousands of man hours trying to find the "perfect investment" which returns dividends, shows good growth and consistently rising SP. IN the meantime there are many companies ,such as WHS, doing the job and paying the bills. Expecting a mature business to find "growth" is a bit optimistic so I can see why some would not consider it as a good investment. Important to recognise it what it is as opposed to what you believe it should be.
Yes I would hesitate as well :)..........however suggest anything you want...it needs to stand up to scrutiny however. AIR cal yr ended 2014 dividend was 20cents giving good current yield %...previous 6/7years dividend never got over 8.5 cents. Fuel goes up, passengers down, div goes back to 3%? One year of good results is promising..but show me 8 years worth of solid high yield divs and I'll consider it. As I said depends on your circumstances and not for me but for you maybe its the holy grail. At the risk of repeating myself WHS is unsexy but reliable.
For what's it worth ASB have annual TSR for the last few years as
2010 -4%
2011 +8%
2012 -21%
2013. +60%
2014 -14%
2015. -14%
Current year is negative
Based on WHS reporting years and with dividends reinvested.
So 1 boomer year and 4 bad years in the last 6. The boomer year doesn't offset the bad years.
But yes timing purchases and buy at real low points and holding probably can give you 10% pa.
I don't bet and I don't gamble but I see your analogy (as flawed as it is;))....however yes the share market is not far removed from the casino....but the alternative is a term deposit at 3.5%. I did an analysis a while back to see whether I would have been better off putting capital into a TD and over a 6 year period the shares (all div producers) outperformed TD by average of 100%. Getting out of a few bad eggs with a few capital loss's is figured into those returns. What the future hold 20 years ahead I have no idea but I expect a similar if not growing return. WHS is a cornerstone of my portfolio and is added to in moments of SP weakness ....all based on experience which is continually being evaluated. Mr. Buffett doesn't like airlines and I respect his results. Check back in 20 years and we can compare notes.:)
Pretty harsh to say Biscuit is 'stupid' for considering 'Growth' prospects are important IMHO.
The recent growth in AIR and TIL and others may be attributed to fundamentals or trends however the reality is that their potential double or triple digit GROWTH prospects are a key to the SP rising. I would say it is stupid not to consider growth prospects in looking to invest in any company, and in relation to WHS the struggling growth prospects of retailers are well recorded. Even Buffet is struggling with Wal Mart.
Best describe Birman as a trader - a trader of bonds
He buys WHS shares for the 17 cents dividend (tax free). So look at from the perspective of the share being a 'bond' whose face value goes up and down according to the sentiment if investors.
Birman has been astute enough to buy these 'bonds' when they cheap thus increasing his yield. Well done
Birman not a gambler - birman a bond trader
WHS share better return than the WHS020 real bonds - coupon 5.3% currently yielding 4.3% (pre tax)
Quite a few companies like this on the nzx - profits pretty stable with not much growth but generating heaps of cash. Don't always need growth.
Nothing wrong with holding some WHS shares, its a NZ institution and ain't going away anytime soon and it is actually growing by acquisition and so patience required, but in the meantime just keep collecting those divvies.
Fair enough, and he has been more astute than me. I bought WHS a while ago thinking they might be cheap if the new strategy could turn things around, but I got tired of waiting. I think the dividend has almost cancelled out the capital loss. Think you would have to be pretty astute to make on the deal long term unless they start getting traction somewhere.
Best close in a while, you would be feeling good Biscuit, not sure if the charties picked this movement up, might be CEO appointment lift?
Today the share price was $2.80.It has moved up through the 50 day EMA $2.62,the 100 day EMA $2.65, and the 200 day EMA $2.74,so it is looking positive for shareholders.
Enjoy it.!
I do occasionally check the share price of WHS since selling. It is interesting that, although logically it makes no financial difference to me what happens to the price since I no longer hold, I still quietly hope the share price tanks. I must admit that emotionally I would prefer the company fails now that I have given up on it, in order to justify my decision.
LOL refreshing to see an honest self-evaluation. These moments of illuminating introspection always useful for adding to ones share market reservoir of experience. However its early days and the share market has a habit of fooling some people all of the time, most people a lot of the time, and some people too much of the time:p. Good luck on the journey.
That's a very positive sales update from the Warehouse this morning
Note that margins are up
This could well be one of their better years,the first of many.
Commenting on The Warehouse (Red Sheds) result Group Chief Executive Officer Mark Powell said "To achieve 15 consecutive quarters of same store sales growth is particularly pleasing ...... .....This year's growth was achieved with much lower levels of clearance activity, resulting in improved gross margins."
That was comment on Q1 last year, so I'll wait to see if the "momentum" really means the strategy is working
Warehouse Mobile is a new prepay mobile offering, which is available exclusively through The Warehouse (stores and online) from November 23rd, 2015. Warehouse Mobile aims to provide the simplest and most flexible prepaid offering in the market, ultimately connecting Kiwis for less.
https://www.warehousemobile.co.nz/pre-register/
http://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=42&topicid=184008
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYCcv6B772A
Gee, this Warehouse video is popular, 70,000 views already. WHS seems to have a well put together channel.
Surprise on the upside
As far as excuses go this one is a classic.... "the impact of the 53rd week in FY15, "
No I didn't Birman. No worries though as share price is still a tad lower than it was at the time of that Nov announcement.
Bit worried when Chairman Ted said, “?...We now expect that full year profit to be up on last year, although not to the same extent as these first half results ....."
Hmm H2 not very good then ...hmm
Never mind birman - no matter what you'll get your dividend eh.
I kind of hope not. Warehouse, NL, Torpedo 7, Whs Stationary and a huge online machine, not to mention Finance and Phones. Time to get down to business with what they have.
Retailing industry going through classic consolidation through mergers, acquisitions and plain closures.
Not necessarily a bad thing for WHS to buy Dick Smith, if it can be obtained real cheap.
Farmers getting ready to make its move and Briscoes is ripe for some real competition in its product range, given Warehouse/Farmers combined purchasing power.
Interesting times ahead.
Dicksmith have good store locations IMO, I think that is somewhat of a positive if they can buy it for peanuts:)