Report out of Australia showing that corporate travel is back to 90% of pre-Covid travels but predicts that it won't reach pre-Covid levels until 2026. However I'm almost certain Booking.com will have snapped us up by then.
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Report out of Australia showing that corporate travel is back to 90% of pre-Covid travels but predicts that it won't reach pre-Covid levels until 2026. However I'm almost certain Booking.com will have snapped us up by then.
Any takeaways from the meeting?
I was only half listening unfortunately so missed a fair bit, Much mumbo-jumbo with very little grit...
I'd like to know if the 300k bookings.com migrated customers is singular person customers or if they relate to entities/businesses. Did I hear correctly when they said that number was now $500k? Also wonder how many of those customers are active users?
They mentioned they have 70% market share in NZ; did anyone catch the specifics of that a number, what it related to?
Revenue expected to double so maybe +/- $35m. With the expected increased rate of product investment, is cash burn likely to decrease?
Why on earth did someone ask about buy backs??
Good to hear they are very busy
I was a bit shocked to hear that they are only planning to get cashflow neutral in 2 or 3 years.
I assumed that was quite conservative. 'Increased investment' (what ever that pertains to) may have a bearing. On an assumption revenue should easily double and double again over the next two years, then that should take care of current cash burn... Though if they only manage doubling in a normalised(ing) travel environment then i dare say they'll be disappointed. Its off a low base and huge inroads would have been made over the last couple of years. If the world starts being more normal I wouldn't be surprised at all if doubling turns out to be extremely conservative.
Crikey…I kicked myself for not buying this at $1.90 ish when pandemic hit.
Its dropping like a stone. I quite like the business idea
but really struggle to put a value on this?
Mr Winner…can you plug in Open AI and see what it spits out.
It was once said..it was Always ..great buying under $3
I think I’m going to wait. Long term opportunity but maybe nothing going to keep share price up in short term
SKO sure has taken a massive beating in 2022 from $7 to sub $3 atm is there a bottom yet ?
There's always those that need to sell so Could be room to go down yet if buyer play their cards well
The bottom will be just before the next update I'd think.
Other tourism based companies seem to have had positive trading since the world opened up again (or most of the world)
Sub $3-00 and going lower by the looks of it !!
FY23 revenue going to be "approx" double FY22 which came in at $17.8m.
So say FY23 rev will be $36m.
Market cap today is $350m. Hmmmm trading 9.72x forward revenue. Even more than the lofty multiples of PYS.
Winner69 post that cool chart showing the 75th percentile of cloud companies in AUS/NZ trade at 5.2x SKO therefore maybe top 1%?
SKO had $100m cash by last count and was burning over $3m a month. And said it would be cashflow negative for 2 more years yet.
Might have a look at under $1 per share. sorry
Another Craigs IP special
Well, I think pre-covid, the business travel market was around $700 billion USD. Expectations are for that to at least double (even triple) over the next 5 years...
So in 5 years if Serko only have their fingers in 1% of the world market and clip 0.5% of that market then revenue would be 70 million USD
Serko currenty has their fingers in 50% of the NZ business travel market. Translate that to the world market... Make sure you're sitting down.
Not worried holding Serko at all.
Always good buying around 3 bucks
Not enough negative postings and aggressive selling.
I post this in Feb when SP was $5.20. It was after they announced a trading update saying they were at 90% of 2021 levels. Unfortunately no positive updates since. Hit midpoint of guidance.
Now its $2.84 per share and still looks expensive.
There you go balance, im doing my best
this is just a typical story stock out of fashion.
Booking.com must be laughing all the way to the bank getting SKO to do all the hard work for them at a rate that is not profitable.
3 from 3
Geez still going down, quite surprised TBH….good buying under $3 apparently….but I can hear Baa Baa in my ear saying don't buy on a downtrend wait for the trend to change …. And so I wait … :)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402493
ACC have purchased $7.2m worth of SKO stock between July and November. Now a substantial holder with 5.4% of shares
Nice one!
Webjet reports that bookings are back to pre-pandemic levels. Bodes well for Serko.
good old webjet...one of my fav pandemic investments. had been a long term admirer but never pulled the trigger. In very early days of the pandemic lots of the obviously effected companies started doing these heavily discounted rights issues so bought my first block of webjet shares at a bargain price and then got the opportunity to subscribe for new shares at i think A1.70 (now 6.20), which was massively discounted, and on a 2 for 1 basis. bit fuzzy now but think I managed to pick up some over subscriptions. a lot of kiwi IP in that company and chaired by a fine kiwi too.
no not a holder and totally uninformed. the thing that has always put me off from doing some work so I could have an actual informed view (which I dont have) is the reliance on bookings.com. I get nervous anytime I spot a concentration issue and its almost always a non starter for me...some big contract or customer or distribution channel or whatever that underpins a company. I don't know if that is even fair or not with Serko its just something that I've always perceived to be the case and appologies if that's not right. I guess if I was going to start looking at it I'd really need to understand the relationship and contract but to be honest I'd probably struggle with it. Webjet is looking toppy these days but at least its well profitable - serko still trading on a negative FY25 npat. but as the travel sector has been kind to me over the years i'm all ears and really should get more informed as it has some good people and ip
Serko Limited (NZX:SKO) today announces its unaudited financial results for the six month period ended 30 September 2022.
Summary of Financial Results:1,2
• Total income $19.4 million, up 106%
• Segment revenue $20.3 million, up 106%
• Average revenue per booking $7.85, up 54%
• Total travel booking volumes 2.3 million, up 73%
• Completed room nights on Booking.com for Business 454,000, up 432%
• EBITDAF $16.9 million, an increase of 44%
• Net losses after tax $19.7 million, an increase of 30%
• Cash and short-term deposits $102.9 million
• Average monthly cash burn $3.6 million
• Serko targeting return to cashflow positive during FY25
• FY23 revenue guidance affirmed.
Bal, Being buying SKO at these prices, $2.20 is a steal imo and looks the bottom and a great buy considering the roll out and where it has come from, imo the business plan and the economic future will see it back in charge of its S P shortly.
Ssshh…I been watching it drop like a stone and was hoping to pick some up soon. Getting close to going under $2 on asx wher volume looks pretty thin.
A wise man (winner actually) once said it was great buying at under $3..but he’s been suspiciously quiet on Sko since then and then nearly 50% cheaper than $3
im not sure how you value this puppy but I like the technology and problem it solves and would be happy to have a small holding as a punt.
Bit nervous of the booking.com deal. I’m not over the detail but it reminds me of plx and McDonald’s..a lot aligned to 1 customer.
What do others think…this share certainly out of favour and once was a market darling?
SKO sells $1 coins to booking.Com for $0.90
Succinct Rawz
Do they have a robust plan to increase the 0.90 to $1.20 and when?
Maybe they like a drug dealer…giving booking a taste…get them hooked and dependant and whilst there not quite with it…change those $1 coins to 0.50 c pieces of same siize or packaging and still get0.90 cents for them.
I believes food supplier and supermarkets use this strategy..shrinkflation
On thing for sure. They ain't a leaky ship.
TRADING UPDATE
Serko Limited (NZX & ASX: SKO) today announces an upgrade to revenue guidance
for the FY2023 year, following stronger than expected revenue performance
across its primary markets.
Solid trading results over the traditionally seasonally low period, from late
December through to mid-January, has given greater certainty over expected
revenue for the FY2023 year.
Serko expects the strong start to the calendar year to continue in the
current quarter. Accordingly, Serko is upgrading its revenue guidance for the
full year to 31 March 2023.
Total income is expected to be in the range of $42 million to $47 million.
The guidance range for total income represents an increase of between 123%
and 149% respectively on total income of $18.9 million for the 12 months to
31 March 2022.
Revenue $47m is heaps more than pre-covid
Come out bigger and stronger
Should see share price head back to former highs
Revenue expected $42mil to $47mil.
Market Cap at $2.07 is $249mil ..ie 5 to 6 times revenue.[Is that good.?]
No talk of net profit.[Is that bad.?]
the revenue jump just to do with pent up demand , so the question should be will it continue or drop back to normal levels once this pent up demand reduces
Shareprice up 16%
Wait until ASX opens
Be 3 bucks before we know it
6m to 11m more revenue than initially budgeted for so cash burn likely to have dropped below 2.5m per month... if not more.
Cash burn no longer close to revenue...
They've also greatly improved FY24 revenue outlook where you'd think that the cash flow positive target has now shifted forward too. Maybe not for the full year but quite possible Q4 or even Q3...
Covid isn't even a thought in the much of the world and its impact on business travel that everyone was anxious over is dissipating fast.
And get the feeling that they are being conservative, like they were at the Annual results presentation. Either at the top end or another positive trading update in March.
Serko's sp continues to recover and track higher since the 1.5m shares overhanging the market was taken out on 23 Jan.
Meanwhile, BKNG/Booking Holdings Ltd' sp is within striking distance of its all time high price with its market cap at US$96 billion (NZ$151 billion).
Serko's market cap is currently $343m - a very nice and tidy acquisition for BKNG.
Think they will get it at twice the price if the main shareholders/directors can be persuaded to sell?
https://itbrief.co.nz/story/the-sky-...travel-to-life
One of the best stories on the NZX with global leverage is Serko imo.
Why buy SKO and absorb the $3m monthly cash burn??? Booking have their cake and eat it too atm
I bought and gifted Diligent shares to my eldest daughter when she was in university which I bought at $1.10. It completely paid for her university education and more!
I just bought Serko shares for my youngest kid - I believe the same will happen with the shares like with Diligent.
No hurry - let the company get more and more attractive, and more and more valuable.
Rough few days for Serko
Don't know the rules exactly, but SKO is likely out of NZX 50 index in the upcoming March rebalance? Probably will see more pressure on share price in the meantime.
On the other hand, some people may be waiting to take shares from passive index funds and KiwiSavers at these prices; one of the few ways to get volume in this thinly traded stock.
Yeah, looks like someone is keen to offload their holdings for whatever reason.
$3 almost 50% from here now.
Could be a buy at $1.50 sp
wonder if they will do $50m revenue FY23?
bought in last week, It has good tech, use it, love it, all it need is control cost and grow market shares and this is a multi baggers
previously use Xero, love it, bought shares
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411297
There was a market analysis of travel companies a few years ago (forget who by)... I remeber them comparing SKO and CWT. The summary was pretty mush if you were going to invest in CWT then you might as well just invest in SKO as they are the platform that powers CWT. Seems to me this CWT/Booking deal will just add carriages to the locomotive
Remember balance was the one raving buy..buy when the SP about $6...
Hope u bailed out back then...lol
https://www.mycwt.com/news/pr/cwt-pa...-for-business/
Sounds possitive.
Way better than expected. Let's hope the market loves it too
Summary of Financial Results:
o Total income $48 million, up 154%
o Average revenue per booking $9.56, up 65%
o Average revenue per completed room night EUR9.34, up 36%
o Online bookings of 4.1 million, up 93%
o Completed room nights on Booking.com for Business 1.5 million, up 381%
o EBITDAF loss of $21.8 million, a 23% improvement
o Net loss after tax of $30.5 million, a 15% improvement
o Cash and short-term deposits $87.7 million
o Underlying average monthly cash burn $2.7 million
o FY24 guidance for total income of $63 million to $70 million
Results announcement has some huge %age growth numbers …that’s good
Always hard to find the right word to compare losses v pcp but I suppose $30m v $36m last year is Net is a 15% improvement
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...540/394476.pdf
Still have some a few years ago because Balance kept rolling me always good buying around $2 but I have no idea whatsoever how they will ever make money …..a complete mystery to me.
Fully expect to wake up one morning and find that a full takeover offer has been made for Serko.
Like Diligent (very very tasty treat that was), that’s the end game for Serko.
Not if but when.
Good result - as expected. However they don't seem to be making any traction in the North American market, which is somewhat concerning. Revenue up only 400k ($3m vs $2.6m)
The low volume that Serko shares trade at baffles me. Hopefully the stock ticks back up to $3 :D
excellent result, look like they doing a lot better than pre-pandemic and now in a very strong position with their system bedded in with booking.com
this will generates significant revenue for them in the future
The US expansion maybe not get the same attention as booking.com but I think once booking.com integration is done and the investment is done they move to concentrate on the USA market.
Remember there are not that big and has resource constrains, I rather they do one thing really well before they move on to the next rather than having your hands in all the pie and get crappy result.
will top up