Well they are too shiny to use for toilet paper
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Not good news - they're laying off 29 staff and delaying ramp up. Met coal price too low.
"Bathurst Resources Knuckles Down to Preserve Value"
https://www.nzx.com/companies/BRL/announcements/247448
Drat.
Wow that's some action and certainly hasn't impressed Mr Market, had hoped to make a few bob in a relatively short time with BRL but I think I have just become a long term shareholder.
Will be showing a great interest in coal prices from here on.
Sympathies that you’ve missed out on that rapid capital gain – it’s always a nice feeling when it does happen. At a sp of 12c, it’s a definite long term hold now – but take comfort that since coal has always been a long cycle commodity that never dies – it will be back again. As long as the board does not lose its nerve, there will eventually be good profits to be made.
Therefore, let’s have a Rose tinted glasses moment: I don’t know if it is wishful thinking – but I take some heart from the steel production figures increasing (Dec 13 figures) in the EU, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and other places. (a few surprises in there – e.g. Italia of all places appears to be coming out of the production slump). The big pachyderm in the room is the astounding amounts of steel that China still produces – which could still be absorbed if they continue massive infrastructure build (but not at all certain). But at least if China slows in pace, there could be slack taken up by a resurgent EU and ‘new’ Asian tigers.
Make that 10c a share. Thankyou F&B for holding things up so that so many of my relatives and neighbours can't find/keep work now. Thank you so much.
SP down to 10 cts! Agree with Case del Energia that coal price is cyclical and will get up again - larger risk for BRL is probably of more political nature (NZ resource management act and Australian management not understanding our Greenies). However at that SP does it feel the risk is fully costed - might be time to buy some more! Discl: Hold a quite small parcel in my "high risk" portfolio;
Am tempted to double up (average down) but looking at a $16k plus loss on my 150,000 holding I might just be adding good coal (@ $120 pt) to a losing fire.
For reasons I never fully grasped – price averaging only appears to work if it was always part of ‘your’ original plan. Maybe the real reason is that not sticking to investment strategies often leads to tears. Also – BRL is definitely in the high risk/speculation territory. Having said that – I’m getting somewhat tempted myself to enter at these prices but that would be only a speculation (side bet if you like) and wouldn’t have anything to do with my ‘real’ portfolio plan. Of course – I have no idea what your overall position is across the market and price averaging on BRL might make perfect sense for you.
(But then – I’m also a bit worried about what BRLs bankers might do – I still wake up in cold sweats over the Nuplex-westpac fiasco when their sp trunked.)
Having said that – I totally missed out on Xero because it didn’t ‘fit my strategy’ and I’m still getting the occasional ribbing for that. Mrs casa has never let me forget.
Then again – I did buy air NZ .. the day before 9/11.
So much for stragegy.
Not the best news, absolutely NO indeed. Share price has taken a tumble from the recent announcement to hold off and well you could say we all felt a little blinded by our eagerness to fly on a rocket fueled by coal, when in reality we are seeing coal prices dip. So the question would be do you still have faith in the company after this to still deliver on your hopes?
To take the positives, I think it would have been extremely hard for the board to halt the start of production until the recovery of coal prices, which takes character and guts from the board to say nows just not the right time, even though it disappoints a lot of people, if they did go ahead it might of been worse overall on the long term shareholder value. (Of course there are short term holders that would never agree because they are there afteral for the up and sell.)
Even though there is a notice that they have decided to halt their plans, it really hasn't halted by much because well they are still awaiting approval for their paper work which we would have had to wait in the first place. This also gives them time to build up their facilities as I quote from them "for now, the aim will be on securing the site, setting up facilities, including water management dams and stockpile areas, and mining enough coal to complete market qualification for coking coal supply to steel producers, mainly in Japan and India."
So what now you say? Given nothing has changed except the fact that management has said the change of the timing of the plans, that they do still intend to mine the area and are merely saying instead of the March date that they were promoting as the start of production, it will be a later date. There really hasn't been much change in value, except the share price of course (which makes whoever gets in now to get pretty good value.) Look at the facts they have valuable consent, they have plans and foundations to be set. Its all just waiting on coal prices to swing back up, which given trends they go up and down and of course this is where the risk lie. Apart from the time, nothing has really changed, of course timing can matter a ton when we speak about time = money. I'm just saying value is still there, which of course anyone entering should always evaluate the risk involved and do some research on it themselves. BRL is knucking down in the meantime with cost cutting, which is indirectly a good sign (though some will not agree for a company that is meant to be expanding.)
I've always bet on a upswing from Australia (who dominates minerals and only swings up where the economy starts demanding and pushing prices back up) by the end of the year, so in my opinion we might be waiting till the end of the year before we see a swing in the share price for BRL. Patience is a virtue!
My 2cents anyway (disclaimer - this is a matter of only my opinion and research and should only be read out of interest.)
I hear the Green Party are putting on some Tax Payer Drinks tonite, Kevin Hackwell Guest Speaker...
Their rooms Parliament 7 pm.
Will be press release tomorrow, re Bathurst. Free entry for Forest and Bird and Green Party members,