Gann last seen heading in this direction Arco :D:D
http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/5429/usdcad8wp.png
Home James ... and don't spare the horses, (and be sure to swat those cursed butterflies)
Printable View
Gann last seen heading in this direction Arco :D:D
http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/5429/usdcad8wp.png
Home James ... and don't spare the horses, (and be sure to swat those cursed butterflies)
Excellent Xerof you have nabbed the Red-spotted Purple.
I'm still reaching for the green...... but are you aboard the Maple Leaf express?
-23....the suspense
arco
'Yes, well, go on then' he says, 'driver - follow that gartley'
All aboard the Loonie - North to Alaska on the 11717
well your actually aboard the $ arent you[:p]
i liked the chart so much i've joined in at 1.1729 , will try to be strong and give it some room to round up the troops ,
Yup Peat long$
mush mush
<center>http://img431.imageshack.us/img431/4620/huskies6ec.jpg</center>
s/l at 11670 for me, just below gartley turntable
hearing oil insiders selling the rally last 24 hours - the rally in black gold I mean;);)
Xerof
nice one guys... seems like it went beserk almost immediately while I snoozed
closed out at +102
:D
Morning Peat - I did say Maple Leaf EXPRESS :D
This is a move I've been waiting for for some time. I did mention the possibility of a reversal on 12/9 and again on 10/10 showing the chart. Ain't it just great when a plan comes together.
Our friend the Looney has a good correlation to oil, so heres the set up and why you might be able to fill up your tank a little cheaper in the short term.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101305_136.gif
arco
Minor Gann at 1841 could be affecting progress in the short term.
arco
So Arco, on your weekly butterfly reversal, do you look to target the major fibs, like .618%, which in this case would be 1.2100?
On my 360min Gartley reversal, we've already tested the 1.272% extension level near 11850, somewhat better than the typical .618% target.
Some expert guidance on how to identify targets would be gratefully received, but I guess it depends on timeframes used to identify the patterns
Xerof
I've raised trailing stop to 11770, just below the broken trendline resistance drawn across last two highs on 360 min chart
Re Oil chart - a very nice 'return to the neckline' last couple of days, in preparation for the decline to mid 50's[:p][:p]
Gives further comfort to USD/CAD trade, given high correlation
Xerof
Targets.
I think its really quite an individual choice depending on many factors.
I tend to look at Fibs for guidence but since no one knows where the top might exactly be then it is sometimes better to let the market action tell you where to take your profit. Perhaps this could be by exiting with a trailing stop, tightening it as the action plays out.
Another alternative is to have a range of set profit targets (perhaps using Fib numbers) and exit as they are hit.
The weekly target would be the brown box on the DT line.
EOD chart has printed a 3 Methods candle pattern (bullish).
arco
Chart update...........
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101405_798.gif
Great, thanks Arco, that clears it up, from the perspective that there's no established set of rules for the aftermath of pattern completion. (but I note you pick a minimum 12100 area, .618% as a target, as did I)
Playing it by ear, but will run the trailing stop as per previous post.
Xerof
OH! some big targets there - clearly i departed too soon, but it really was nice to bag something. You guys rock.
Peat, I'm sure I'll bow to temptation and bag some profit well before those levels are seen, but will be experimenting with trailing stops to see how long I can stay in.
IMO, entry is the difficult part of the exercise - once successfully in, with some phat prophets up the sleeve, it becomes a more pleasant occupation
Xerof
Pete
I sold 1/2 at 1.1838
Will pick up some more if it drops far enough, if not, will grab some more on the way past the Gann that arco mentioned
Different strokes...
No harm in treating 1 LT trade as several small ones, I just have to keep reminding myself of the big picture:)
Cheers
Slam
Slam,
I see you've emigrated....has CHCH got THAT cold? :D:D
When do you know a trader is boarded?
When he keeps changing his location or avatar[8D]
[|)]slam
oh yeh i got back in @1.1821
looks like its remembered which way it wants to go again ;)
once the statistics stopped blurring the picture again a powerful move north , this time my 20 pip trailing stop got hit at 1.1866 +45 .
Those huskies were a bit tired , but still put in a good effort!
took a hit on it tonite... -38 [V]
Out of this pair after trailing stop (raised last night to 11820) hit at NY open.
Xerof
Likewise, trailing stop hit o/n.
Ditto, Trailing Hit[V]
May have found support around here though
Slam
Support looking a bit better now
worth watching
slam
Here we go - I think ;)
Looks like a WW setup for a run north.
In at 1778....see how it goes. +5
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101905_134.gif
Hi arco
WWs seem to popping up on few of your charts lately;)
slam
Hi Slam
Yep, whatever works.................
just another tool in the pip collectors ars*enal ;)
Gann. Gartley. Wolfe.........put 'em in the melting pot and whaddyaget...........pips (hopefully)
arco
Hehe,
I was waiting for 11740 personally (gartley as usual:):)) but having seen your recent WW success on GBP, have whistled up the hounds and joined the hunt on the strength of that.
Seems Rest of World like to buy it, then North America smash it back in the last few sessions...
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Well I only stepped in with 25% of the usual order and will average once I see how it goes.
In classic Wolfe Wave I understand the buy point is when the action hits the 1-3 line.
arco
Morning All
Yesterdays minor reversal gave circa 40 pips for scalping wolf hunters, and now today we see the possibility of a Falling Wedge forming.
Falling wedges can be either reversal or continuation patterns. When they occur in downtrends they are almost always reversal patterns.
Therefore - a low risk entry can be obtained IMO
Adding another 25% @ 1752
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102005_can_200.gif
Added at 11740, as suggested yesterday, but with a VERY tight stop on both at 11730.
On a closer look, and to add another formation into the mix, I wonder if this is the slightly bigger piccy for USD.CAD
http://img416.imageshack.us/img416/2939/usdcad0dl.png
Interestingly, if I were to add another line at the beginning of this formation, and join points 1 and 4, I can also get a WW, meaning it should drop immediately and head for 11550. Hence my tight stop.
BTW, Mr Wolfe's waves look very similar to classic falling and rising wedge formations. Anybody willing to pay USD3k to do his course, with a requirement to sign a confidentiality agreement?
Xerof
Morning Xerof
Yes I think thats all WW's are bascially, perhaps with a few additional refinements. I looked at the idea several years ago and at that time realised they were still not the Holy Grail.
I havent got the EOD yet from Rooters,,,,15 minutes to go before its available, so I will be getting a better idea then (I hope).
Perhaps a good idea to scalp some pips off CAD until the direction is more clear.
arco
Morning Arco, seems we were both beavering on this one at the same time. If you take your 60 min view, and my daily view, should be heading to 11900+ [8)][8)]
As I say, my only concern is a direct loss of the short term trend line, which would only add to Mr Wolfe's credibility and subtract from my capital[xx(][xx(]
Xerof
11963 perhaps.
The new uptrend line is intact on the EOD, but I would prefer to see the oscillator above the zero line. Action is still struggling to exit the Buttefly traps.
arco
Sleepy scalpers or even techy traders with a million units can breeze home now with 20 pips ($1700).......then again - who knows, there may be more).
I closed at 68. Not sure about it so out for some pin money[|)][|)]
Well, I will see what it looks like later this evening and make the decision at that point. Currently +21
As I'm off for a long weekend I may take the profit and spend it on some (more) new clothes for the better half....or perhaps even a deposit on a Med cruise :D
arco
Good call last night on this Xerof:)
All over the place atm
Cheers
slam
Hi All
I mentioned on Thursday "Falling wedges can be either reversal or continuation patterns. When they occur in downtrends they are [u]almost always reversal patterns</u>".
We now see that reality giving those who held for the short term a maximum of circa 185 pips
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505_846.gif
Agreed and very nicely called Arco, but see daily chart below - welcome your opinion. Stumped by the false break down to 11715. There was also a lovely bullish flag formation on Friday on the 60 min chart which yielded a full cent or so by late Monday
DAILY is forming a [u]rising</u> wedge, which is usually a continuation pattern (but can also sometimes signal a reversal, although rare, Murphy pg 147)
Last nights activity stopped dead in its tracks at 11920, so still wondering about this one - I guess its best to watch and wait and trade the breakout either way huh?
http://img484.imageshack.us/img484/5660/usdcad4hl.png
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes, a Rising Wedge is certainly one possibility, but compare what would have appeared like a forming Rising Wedge in March and one can see the problem in this situation. That plot went on circa 600 pips further north.
One should perhaps still class the action as a possible new uptrend until the new uptrend line breaks.
Hi All
Getting close to lower support on uptrend
Telling Time;)
Cheers
Slam
Still tracing out this wedge formation on the daily, with rising trend line holding OK this morning.
I'm small long USD.CAD at 11800[:0][:0], based on the longer term possibilities noted elsewhere. Stop is at 11735
Xerof
chopped the position before stop level - think we might see better levels
Xerof
Validation for being nervous about the bearish wedge....
http://img239.imageshack.us/img239/8447/usdcad9se.png
Trying to catch a falling knife here. Long @ 1.1033 stop 1.0990
Hi Peat
Yes, I just scalped 10 pips for fun until I get
a more positive confirmed reversal signal.
The action could possible turn round in the
PRZ. (Red Box)This is one of several charts
I put on BF thread recently.
http://img477.imageshack.us/img477/9...06butts2tv.gif
Regards - arco
stop loss moved to b/e
whats BF arco?
BF=
http://img490.imageshack.us/img490/4...tterfly7or.jpg
and I'm still around...lol
Xerof
doh! I thought he meant another site. yeh I had seen it on the other thread and the Danes have been suggesting USD/CAD was a buy for a day or two. They were saying that a bit early on the NZD too, but if you give them a bit of leeway they can get things quite right
thx Xerof
closed +50 MACD is turning down and this was a scalp type trade.
Bit miffed my long at 1010 just missed be taken
for a nice ride. I was just toooo greedy I guess [:0]
Always a chance the action may force through the Kumo and enter the Blue Box area.
Less amazing things have happened, but just waiting for that magical reversal signal before pouncing ;)
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/112906_usd.cad.gif
regards - arco
already had a bit of a smackdown...
Hi Peat
Yes, thats a weekly chart, so patience may be required
for the possible reversal pattern to appear.
Possible Gann around 1292 may assist, and I will be doing
a little more contemplating tomorrow once I get the EOD candle.
regards - arco
Hope a few day traders/scalpers took advantage of
the Gann support I mentioned and grabbed circa 90 pips.
Thanks Mr Gann - you've worked your magic again.
no , but I did retain the 30 pips I got on the way down thanks Arco getting out at 98 after your mention of the Gann.
For Gann Fans
Looney went on higher to give a max of 140 pips so far.
arco
With ya Arco, but was a bit late entering long , so its only a small positive so far.
The Ichi on the 1 hr time frame never broke , last I looked.
The strength on the USD in this cross is rather contrary to USD everywhere else. Strange? I thought it would be more similar to AUD or NZD, you know, as in commodity currencies (and hence down) but evidently not.
a bullish falling wedge over the last 18 hours.
which it verily proceeded to smash through on the downside [:I], and pretty much immediately reach the obvious target distance = the verticle edge of the aforementioned wedge.
and then proceeded to be somewhat bullish as the wedge suggested [?] no complaints here tho. just forex keeping me humble heheh.
the hourly keeps bouncing off the cloud tonite
Re Posted - 28/11/2006
OK that was definately yer Xmas prezzy for this year....at least +250 pips anyway.
Please send Johnny Walker to the usual address ;)
arco
Thanks Arco will be sending Johnny over shortly with
cash box in hand for purchase of THE Book and the balance into the Arco Hedge Fund::D
:D
Thanks in advance
Cadet Roddy
http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/7...name105po4.jpg
could we see a pull back in this pair?
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/5...name106se5.jpg
cheers cadet
Hi Roddy
Yes quite possible in the near future.
I have 2 Butterflies on my chart and they are more proportioned. Have another look you will see what I mean.
regards - arco
Hi Arco,
heres one, i havent spotted the other one yet, can you tell me where X is for the second
http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/6...name107km1.jpg
Hi Roddy
Yes, that new chart is the larger overall BF, and the other one which gave a nice short was 17/10 to 21/11, but you can also get a slightly mishapen one from 21/11 to current. It ties in nicely with the large BF to give double the reversal power (eventually) IMO.
regards - arco
crab meat anybody,
roddy
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/4498/cadnc1.jpg
I posted this on another forum last night Roddy
Auckland peat 10:56 GMT June 13, 2007
the low of USD/CAD at 1.0548 was (within 10 pips) of the perfect 423% fib extn of 1.1875 to 1.1564.
It bounced a bit at the 261.8.% ext at 1.1061 , but having passed on through that without retracing sufficiently imo it vastly increases the chances it should go back there and retest. i.e retrace 38% of this entire move from 1.1875 - 1.0548
Hi Peat
thats a coincidence,i overlaid your fib ext and see exactly what you mean,so are you long this one at present?
Roddy
My thoughts are/were CAD to be a short.
1.0742 is a major Gann line (heavy resistance was expected)
The action has already tested this Gann line and eased back.
regards -arco
Hi Arco
thanks for that,will stand aside for the moment then
no. its a theoretical stance only [8)]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by roddy
so are you long this one at present?
Roddy
There may be a trade to be had depending on your time frame, so may I suggest to keep your options open.
The Bollingers are currently tigtening on several time frames so keep an eye on those and you may be able to trade a break in whatever direction the action breaks away.
That would be one way of approaching the current situation and would allow for a very tight stop.
regards - arco
14/6
My thoughts are/were CAD to be a short......1.0742 is a major Gann line
Its taken awhile to get there but a major sell off yesterday gave
the opportuninty to grab 250 pips on the further fall.
The white Hammer/Harami on todays EOD chart looks interesting...
Good weekend all- arco
Could Loonie be in a basing pattern???
Weekly chart shows good divergence.
No position presently.
following closely your possible cad trade arco, getting close to cross on macd and stoch on daily
bollinger band contraction
support 10470
is it advisable to second guess oscillator cross or wait untill prints , i suppose a day in forex land is a long time and that cross could easily come unstuck
DA
Crossovers are just a message that something may be about to happen,
but dont count on them 100%. Confirm with other indicators (but not
too many - that can be just as confusing).
Recent observations.
The Q Stick on my Loonie chart seems to be following an EW pattern
currently a,b,c perhaps.....now that interesting.
Circa 1.0476 has held support now on 8 days through August.
rgds - arco
further weakness in usd looming ??
DA
Nice charting. Where are your charts from?
Loonie looks like it might break down further.
rgds - arco
DA
i was thinking the same thing as ARCO, great charts.
i am long Euro in at 3843 letting the trend do its thing this time and not closing out too early.
cheers
roddy
thanks guys , just on metastock and if you save as html and open in paint the image is small
enough to be posted.
i can give more details if you want
...........butterfly on a deep crab - thats probably illegal in NZ (we're soooo PC)
.....how did you know the loonie was the one to watch......Simple fibonacci stuff really - theres a longstanding shape from June 06 (incredible likeness to a bat) that is in the potential fib reversal zone, a Gartley from Nov 05, plus the one/s you've noted, all tying in. Add the divergence on the weekly, and it shouts ........keep an eye on the action chaps - just in case this may be the real thing.
Hi DB
I consider myself very much a learner at this stage,i tend to carry a too tighter stop, I am very conscious of preservation of capital, was short the kiwi twice on 17 sept got stopped twice only to see it fall to 7020,the EURO i got tired of waiting,rejoined at the breakout but got stopped again.
i trade a mini account and since start of April have made 34% return,doing 110 trades,don't know whether thats good or average.
cheers
roddy
sounds pretty good to me , probably alot more trades than i would do in that time but your making money which puts you ahead of the rest and me , well done
Roddy.
Consider yourself in the top 5%.............the other 95% are loosing money, and will soon be contacting you to buy signals.
rgds - arco
wow
parity
my netdania skills arent that great but you get the picture... those solid horizontal lines are the std fibs and somewhere around 9956 would be the 78 % retracement. about 10 pips lower than it is now... stop would be 9936. I havent showed it but there is RSI divergence from the 22:00 low.
http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/2...5102007bv6.jpg
Hi Peat
Might be a little trade......
Did you see/trade the Gartley prior?
Yellow horizontal is 786
arco
no I never saw that one. do you think two in a row means double the power? it has after all been a massive decline... surely theres no one left to go short anymore. should really investigate those COT stats or whatever it is that publishes the number of open positions
I also been thinking about what Carney says re time as well how its less important than price and thats good coz clearly nothing significant will happen till after midnite....
Hi Peat
I havent read Carneys 1st book, so I'm in not up with his thinking re timing. My personal thoughts on timing would be uniform 'shape' - which can be created with perfect timing.
Interesting re the Loonie harmonics.......there was actually another little tuquoise Gartley hidden away in the belly of the red number. (see diagram....I've also added TLs which can be considered for potential reversal areas).
rgds - arco
and that is why we have stops!
100 pips down below where mine were now.
Hi Arco/all
Keepinp a watchful eye on this one,as it has dropped through the shorter term butterfly at fib 161 level,and it is now nearing the fib 261 medium term butterfly starting Aug 06 level.
Carney maintains that .618 and 1.61 are the most important numbers,however could it be possible that there could be a base forming at .9790 with
the 261 level at.9700.
cheers roddy
Roddy
I think Carney stipulates B786/D1618 as the ideal BF,
however Loonie is at D200 and 423 of BC so a little
extended presently. Q-Stick is in divergence.
We away the magical reversal signal
rgds -arco
Arco/Peat
yes you are right regard butter fly, i made a random statement out of context as i had just listened to a mp3 from Carneys site with him being interviewed on radio and in that he mentions .618 and 1.618 as being of high significance generally!
And Peat his preferred time frame to trade is 15 min chart
cheers
roddy
5th wave elliot count on dailies
divergence on q stick
bat on the hourlies
watching for a north move
Morning All
The Loonie may have formed a STICK SANDWICH candlestick pattern.
Also note the Tweezer (bottom?) on the Reuters EOD chart.
http://www.candlestickforum.com/stor...k-Sandwich.jpg
The Stick Sandwich looks somewhat like an ice cream sandwich. it consists of two dark candles with a white candle in between. The closing prices of the two black candles are equal. This demonstrates an obvious support price. The probability of a reversal in the trend is high from this area.
Criteria
1. A downtrend is concluded with a large black candle followed by a white candle. The white candle opens above the black canldes close, and closes above the black candle's open.
2. The final day completely engulfs the white candle and closes at the same level as the previous black candle.
Pattern Psychology
The Bears have been in control for awhile. At the end of the downtrend, the last black candle is followed by a large white candle. The white candle opens higher than the lcose of the last black candle. It trades up for the rest of the day, closing above where the previous day opened. This action makes apparent to the Bears that the downtrend may be coming to an end. The next day opens higher but trades down for the rest of the day. It cannot close lower than the previous low close of two days prior. The shorts take notice and start covering upon any buying strength over the next couple of days.
GTA -arco