Arco has suggested AUD/USD may rise towards 0.7813 and also indicated possible reversal south in NZD/USD, so one would have to think AUD/NZD heading north.
Or have I made a mistake somewhere?
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Arco has suggested AUD/USD may rise towards 0.7813 and also indicated possible reversal south in NZD/USD, so one would have to think AUD/NZD heading north.
Or have I made a mistake somewhere?
Welcome Booney
Yes, that is correct.
I'll come back with a greater explanation and targets when I get more time.
regards - arco
well i think i see a worm turning
am long now, not the best entry at 1263 but will see what the morning brings.
hmmmm, a bit suckered last nite it seems, but stop was placed just under 1200 so holding for now.
more convincing now.... all indicators I looked at seem to be on the up.
this has now retraced almost exactly the 61% fib and heading up again - kiwi did the same (obviously opposite direction)
Hi Peat
Yes, i've made a small start with an entry at 1290
.........currently + 7 [:0].......
.......seeing if it ready to go and I can then pyramid up
regards - arco
interesting to see what you regard as a confirmation... will be nice if you dont have to go through the pain I've had holding this position for some days now. I too would have added at 1265 but am at work. perhaps another opportunity when I get home.
Good Luck arco (I say rather selfishly heheh)
Hi Peat
Pin Bar on 1hr and 30 min chart off Fib 618
Gann is positioned circa 1230, so not sure if the action might want to test that again.
Therefore only taken a 10% holding until I see if this
is the real thing.
regards - arco +9 [V]
This position is still a bit testing.... but nothing technical indicating a change at this stage.
Fundamentally that higher business activity report and the prospects it raises NZ interest rates is a little worrying tho.
Woke up expecting to see a few pips in the bag - but alas not so [V]
New Zealand business confidence improves
From correspondents in Wellington
10oct06
NEW Zealand business confidence improved sharply in the September quarter, a survey showed today, raising expectations the central bank may decide to raise interest rates.
The independent New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey for the September quarter showed a net 19 per cent of firms expected a deterioration in the general business situation in the next six months.
However, despite being negative, the figure was the least pessimistic for the last 18 months and down from a net 44 per cent in June and 61 per cent in December.
Economists were surprised with figures that showed capacity utilisation increased for the first time since December 2004. Utilisation reached 92.3 per cent in the September quarter, up from 91.4 per cent in the June quarter.
The NZIER acknowledged the figure would be of concern to the central bank.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Alan Bollard last month said he had become less sure that the official interest rate of 7.25 per cent would not need to rise again during the current business cycle.
Despite a slowing of economic growth to 1.9 per cent annually in the June quarter, inflationary pressures remain strong. Inflation is running at 4 per cent, above the 1-3 per cent band within which the central bank is mandated to maintain price rises.
The ANZ Bank said the business confidence data showed the threshold for a rates increase had been crossed.
"Given recent developments, we believe the risk of a hike (in interest rates) is now greater than 50 per cent, and the Reserve Bank will need a strong reason or calamity at this point to pause,'' the bank said.
The BNZ Bank said a combination of intentions by businesses to hire more workers and to raise prices and the leap in capacity utilisation were worrying.
The bank said it had shifted its probability of an interest rate rise this month from 25 per cent to a 40-45 per cent risk.
"However, we can't but think that governor Bollard really doesn't want to do this if he can avoid doing so,'' the BNZ said.
From The Australian
even RB governors get squeezed..... !
some one posted this Barclays comment on global-view
Barclays: Long AUD/NZD
We see the NZIER survey data as an opportunity to get into AUD/NZD longs ahead of RBA Governor Stevens Wed. We are longing the cross at the reference rata of 1.1276, with a stop loss around the key technical support of 1.1200. We see a hawkish RBA Governor Stevens Wednesday forcing the market to increase the probability of a rate hike in Australia by year end, which will boost the Aussie dollar.Longer term, we expect the RBNZ to stay on hold and not to further hike rates during this tightening cycle. We expect the RBA to hike rates in November, reducing the Kiwi dollar's yield advantage over the Aussie, leading to some shift in carry trades from the Kiwi to the Aussie. We also see a significant chance of a rapid slowing in New Zealand’s economic growth in Q4 and Q1, the precursors of which we see emerging in the data to be released in late Q4. In our opinion, these data will likely see the market begin to price in earlier and steeper rate cuts in New Zealand than it is currently pricing in, which would see a further reductions in carry trades into the Kiwi dollar and bring the weight of New Zealand's record high current account deficit to bear on the Kiwi dollar.
[:0]
using this icon to represent a yawn as I'm definitely tiring of this play....
what do you think arco....how much longer should we give it to deliver...
Hi Peat
Yes, sometimes these potential moves can
be very frustrating when they sit around.
My position is small so I can afford to hang on
for the time being.
At a current -21 that only equates to -2.1 pips
on a full position.
regards - arco
something has happend now [:0] (this time the icon represents genuine surprise)
yeh I have 30K AUD now which is a bit for me and doesnt allow me to open other positions... oh well its looking good now... finally.
Hi Peat
Yes, just as I posted the required green candle
appeared as if in response. Big jump of circa 60
for some reason.
So currently + 40, and looking better.
regards - arco
Australian Sep Employment +31,400; Consensus +2,500
Australian Sep Unemployment Rate 4.8%; Consensus 4.9%
The further tightening in the labour market suggests an increase in wage pressures that can only add to the
case for a rate hike in November. While new RBA Governor Stevens said Wednesday that September quarter inflation data out later in October will be key, the central bank cannot ignore the inflationary implications from the labour data. (ifr)
The next key event for the cross is the NZ retail sales
tomorrow and there are rumours in the market that this will be a weak number after the 0.5% rise in July.
Ah yes, thanks Peat
Just looked at
http://www.news.com.au/business/
and spotted that.
regards - arco
a bit off topic here but Arco, as a technical analyst , how much do you concern yourself with fundamental issues such as this information. Some would argue the charts say it all.
Hi Peat
I don't concern myself with the fundies, but
if we get a sharp move I sometimes search for
the possible reason.
Its quite incredible, but usually the charts
warn me well prior to the news.
regards - arco
Still looking OK
+ 110 pips
May be a bit of hesitation circa 1475
........trailing stop to lock in profits
as the plot proceeds
regards - arco
50 or 60 pip corrections without trend break tho... so guess the trailing stop should be rather large , i've only raised it to 1360.
NZD triple topped at 6620 which makes me think there has to be some downside test in that one at some stage.
Hi Peat
Yes, stops need to be kept at sensible levels, otherwise they can be easily triggered........amazingly by 1 pip [V]..... How DO they do that
Also the stops margin required seems to have increased dramatically over the last year or so.
I added more to my position......so see how we go
arco
whats the pip spread for u guys on the platforms ur using?
its 12 for me >< for audnzd
12 is not unreasonable - mine is 13 at Saxobank
Xerof
12 for me too...
Oanda only has 9 (tho it can vary)
18 with a 81 min stop. (IG)
Hi All
From my news ticker, for what it's worth
San Francisco, October 16. AUD/NZD has
been firm most of the NY session, pressing against the overnight highs of
1.1455/60 but is now giving up gains, dropping back to 1.1420. Traders here see
the cross overvalued with the recent basis for long AUD/NZD recommendations
based on expected revisions of the CPI weightings that should see inflation drop
in NZ. However, the analysts are blatantly ignoring the fact that even with the
expected decline, inflation is running well above the RBNZ comfort zone and the
housing and labor markets are still seen underpinning price pressures in the
economy. Some pundits are now calling for an RBNZ rate hike this month, and this
is being ignored in the price of the cross which still has NZD with a yield
premium over AUD. Even more conservative analysts see a 50/50 chance of a NZ
rate hike before the year end. This risk is seen pressuring the recent longs,
risking a pullback to 1.1200 in coming sessions.
NZD/USD is at 0.6594/99 currently, still meeting offers ahead of 0.6600 with
more sellers tipped at 0.6620. Rhonda.Staskow@thomson.com
Hi Slam/All
There are some Gann resistances in the 1475 area, so these may cause a little hesistation before the action tries to close that higher gap.
regards - arco
Hi Arco
good time to by on dips then hey:)
Cheers
Slam
taken out (at 4 AM)
very large correction but in fact is exactly the 61.8 fib of the 1243 low on the 12th to the 1461 high on the 17th.
Hi All
Topped up on the retrace.
Sorry to see you got taken out Peat. Man you do some hours
Cheers
slam
Sorry Peat, slightly dyslexic
my name is P-P-P-Peat. :D Actually I had an early night so woke up a bit in the middle. Not really a complete non-sleeper.
And I would like to re-enter but cant do it from the work office. maybe I should investigate that txt trading bizzo.....
Hi ALL
As per usual Arco good call on this one
Nz cpi in at .7% not .8% decreasing outlook of a hike tomorrow.
Over the wire
The softer CPI data might swing the balance of expectations towards a "no-
change" result after most of the market was pricing in a 25 bp rise in the cash
rates to 7.5%. A "no-change" result would damage the NZD and solidify calls from
a few US investment banks that the AUD/NZD is he4aded towards 1.1800/1.2000 in
the days/weeks ahead. The NZD/USD trades 0.6600/05
cheers cadet roddy
yup it WAS there for those of you with patience [:I]
- thought you'd disappeared Roddy!!
Hi Roddy/All
Yes that one certainly tested my patience
Currently + 94 on the second lot
I fly back to NZ on Monday, so probably no
posts after Thursday until next Tues/Wed.
Please arrange for some nice temperatures [8D]
regards - arco
Hi Peat
Yes i havent been doing any trading of late except for a short this morning on Kiwi .6628
the reason being,i have been over trading and spending 30-40 hrs a week screen watching and to be honest my day job and social life have been suffering.
strategy is to take higher probability trades of a medium term nature and forget scalping!
cheers cadet roddy
weather isnt so cold anymore arco... but still a bit dreary with o/cast and rain lately... happy flights
Roddy, yeh I been there too , good that you can recognise it and keep a life balance...
I thought I would apply the pitchfork to this one
what do ya reckon !!! ?
http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/720...tchforkgj4.jpg
HI Arco,
it will be good to have you back on the right side of the tasman, though i cant help with the weather. Hawkes bay has been drying out so for my line of work the rain has been good!
regards cadet roddy
Ah, its good when a plan comes together.................
+194 pips currently, but might have to close this off at some point
today as I will be unable to watch anything until next Tuesday.
GTA - arco
OK, Thanks again Mr Gann....
I took my profit at +197 pips, as I knew this morning would be the last time I could do anything before Telstra pulls the plug on me, and who know what may have happend over night, let alone over the next few days.
Good weekend to all, this may be my last post from the sunny Sunshine Coast QLD. So until Mid-week next week - au revoir.
arco [8D]
Have a safe trip arco
and go hard on the duty free;)
Cheers
Slam
Thanks Slam (picked up some nice Whisky [:p])
Selling the AUD.NZD was the correct decision, and it looks like there may be another possible trade if the resistance will now hold as support.
Waiting in the wings fro a reversal signal.
arco
i went long last night - before I saw your posts arco, at 1.1498 , and then promptly saw much better opportunities :( but set my stop at 1438 and left it. does seem to have found support around 1460 tho, for now at least.
Hi All
Just got taken in at with a cheeky limit order at 1478
+13
See how we go, and will pyramid if I feel the urge........
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/aud.nzd_110306.gif
GTA - arco
Twas a nasty lil surge by the kiwi disrupting what was beginning to look like a breakout for AUD/NZD. Continues to confuse but my position remains as stated. I suspect NZD gets thrown around by either the big players or a possible lack of liquidity
Peat
Its probably the [V] nasty tricks brigade .......they make it look like a powerful breakout and people jump in with fairly tight stops.......the NTB then run it down and collect all those juicy stops, only to reverse it again once they have their bounty.
arco
bugger - just got taken out...:(
Morning Peat
Fortunately my stop was a little lower down, so still in +9
The daily looks like it may produce a Spinning Top (Green)
Good weekend all - arco
There seems to have been a number good opportunities to have re-entered long on this cross without overpaying. Alas I have not done so. Lingering resentment at being taken out Fri night I suspect ...haha
I still think theres many hundreds of pips awaiting the brave tho.
Hello Peat
Yes, once you have been taken out
it can be difficult mentally to re-enter.
Original position from 1.1478 +68
Further position from 1.1500 +46
regards - arco
edit. Should have mentioned there my be
Gann resistance to conquer ahed circa 1593-1618
put my money where my mouth is
in again at 1524
will be offline during the next two working days!!! attending a CMC strategy course.
Scary spike down overnight but recovered nicely
this morning
+ 95
+ 73
GTA - arco
yeh my stop got taken again.... had it at 1479 saaaaarrrghhh !!!
guess i need to allow more room on this cross.
Morning Peat
Yes, I was wondering where your stop was.
Sorry to hear that it got hit again.
IMO stops have to be much further away now
than they did going back a few years.
Not sure if all the small players are affecting
this, or what the cause is. However I often
start with 70-100 now.
How was CMC????
regards - arco
I'm just on my lunchbreak from it (one of the benefits of living in the city is I can pop home) I wrote about in it the investment strategy forum so see that for my comments. They really are pushing this $4000 piece of software called Profit Source, which does seem pretty slick indeed, I'm strongly resistant to that sort of expense tho... I hate sales pitch. Hes really a really good salesman tho so the more time I spend there the more I waver.
Todays recommendations (with disclaimer of course) were to short FPA (NZX) and OSH on the ASX and some others I can post later...
added: tho as I typed that FPA broke the stop which was at 3.92, so thats over now.
whats the low for today on AUD/NZD ? cant get fxgame to run from my work PC today [xx(]
bounced off just below 1500 it seems....
Peat, off an MT4 platform, the lowest price in last 6 hours or so is 1.1485/95
Xerof
cheers Xerof
wow pretty close to my stop at 1484 !! but not quite ;), dont think it went quite that low on CMC tho...
and btw I reinstalled Java and fxgame is now working again on IE7 so have their graphs available on the work PC again.
anyone else still long AUDNZD?
im tinking of entering 1500 ....
arco u still in, from ur exsisting 1478 and 1500 lots?
i see peat is still in from 1524?
im in at 1503/1515
long
stop 1430
i'm not in any more dazza!
NZD gets pushed up first for some reason exacerbating the volatility in this cross, and I need to have cut off points, so yeh gone again. I must say the Antipodes currencies rarely do me any favours.
yeah i mite just stick to my eurusd lol
down 40 pips now oh well, will leave the stop as is..
Dazza
No, I took a profit over a week ago as I was going away for a few days. Just got back this afternoon.
regards - arco
kiwi just did a 100 pip u turn
im +60 at the moment, wondering when to take profits..
Ichimoku is saying sell on the daily now.
Tenkan has crossed over (or at least will do very soon I think)
Todays price is lower than the price 22 days ago (Chikou)
Current price is now below the Kumo cloud.
Sell on any bounces over the next two days I reckon.
It seems to me that following the trigger of an Ichi indicators on the daily price often experience a pullback during the next 2-3 days where a much better entry point can be achieved. So sell if price retraces up, back to the cloud itself.
Target 1100??
Peat
As I understand it -
If Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen from down to up = buy signal (Gold Cross), and the reverse = sell signal is called Dead Cross.
However, if Tenkan-sen line is on horizontal level - we have an undecided market signal.
(Also check out possible triple tweezer bottom on 3 hours?)
arco
this might have some influence on the AUD/NZ and worthwhile keeping an eye on
IMO with B at 78 D should be 161
cheers Roddy
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/1375/noname08ez4.jpg
the tenkan crossed downwards using parameters 9,26 but not using 7,22 but yes, I am probably pre-empting a bit on this call.
Hi Peat
i havent been able to get ichimoko up and going yet,though my metastock is legit i never registered
it so cant access downloads from Equis that i am aware of, so i am interested in your comments on tenkan etc,looking at daily chart it appears to have fallen through support 11456
cheers roddy
my post of 04/12/2006 : 5:20:06 PM wasnt a bad call... not that I traded it with real money but if you had of sold in the two days following that when it hit up to 1530 you could've been up 200 pips
another tick for the daily ichi tho?
note that it got to 1150 but has now turned back with the daily tenkan sen crossing through the kijun sen (tho below the cloud). Cloud might offer some resistance but if this low was the ABC correction of the 12345 upphase to 1.2450 ending in August then Big Things could be in store on this leg up.
this from Jyske Bank (Denmark) today
"If investors sell NZD against AUD – and not against the low-interest CHF and JPY – they save interest
expenses since the interest-rate level for AUD is only marginally lower than for NZD. With a long
AUD/NZD certificate in the portfolio, investors can in the event of renewed risk aversion look
forward to a more safe future knowing that action has been taken"
folks
Theres been much talk over the 6 months or so that there will be a correction in this rate, yet there seems to be constant trading in the same narrow range. Whats it going to take other than NZ dropping interest rates, which ain't going to happen anytime soon.
folks
Theres been much talk over the 6 months or so that there will be a correction in this rate, yet there seems to be constant trading in the same narrow range. Whats it going to take other than NZ dropping interest rates, which ain't going to happen anytime soon.
dont know what it will take Moe, but, the longer the period of compression usually the more violent the outbreak.
breakout started (down) !
100 pips already but a few hundred more i reckon.
and I always thought it would break the other way.
http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/2...007medidy5.jpg
at first my top line 31 was too tight and it was giving false indications but line 87 now matches better with 63 and the breakout is clear. I am thinking a good strategy would be to sell into 1.1250 stop loss 100. supposedly the target 1.09 but 1.1 might leave some for the next guy
well I've actually put the money where the mouth is on this just now. Shorted it in demo last night - watched that bounce around today... but have shorted 15k Aud/NZD at 1.1242 fo' real now.
Not sure that my stop loss will be as large as posted above (1.1350), now I'm thinking that I wouldnt want it to go over 1.1270 at this stage as the major trend should start to show itself quickly if this is a true breakout.
sold another 15k at 1.1196
Aussie 1Q CPI Below Expectations; AUD/USD Falls
Australian 1Q CPI surprisingly weak, up 0.1% on quarter vs +0.6% expected, up 2.4% on year vs +3.0% expected. Data diminish rate hike expectations ahead of May 1 RBA meeting. Australian dollar tumbles...
Cross now at 1.1146
Well this trade all closed now, unfortunately only slightly better than break even. Yesterdays behaviour of correction was fairly expected tho at 1.1200 stretching things a bit, and even this mornings OCR increase didnt put things right soon enough with the spikes up hitting my stop.
A little disappointed that I didnt capture the profits while they were available (greed?) but I had my original target (1.10) and I stuck to them. Maybe they will still be hit eventually.
later ..... now at 1.1150 :( well I need to move on , but this is burnin my A.S.S.
seems to be a feature of my trading that even when I get it right I dont bank the pips. hmmmmmmmmmm
Hi Peat at least you got the move right,way I tend to look at it is that there are always trades,so once you are in the money run fairly tightly behind it,ie as it moves move your stop up behind it,sometimes will be too tight other times you end up banking more if it turns the other way.
The exception would be playing a long move,say a week or more,also I try to stay flexible,as in pick a move but don't get stubborn about it,so if you are sitting there thinking it's turning take the money and run.
Cheers
Miner
cheers for the words miner
yeh I was kinda in this for the long run - workin for a big target and , hence my tentativenss in moving the stops closer - especially with this cross the s/t volatility is fairly high.
Shame to miss banking it tho coz I'd been eyeing the compression on this for months and with a 12 pip stop its not somethin to scalp at too much.
Always another day tho!!
Morning Peat I have been to busy to play for a while but just looking at usd/jpy and eur/jpy on the daily and they have both given nice "U" trades,doing the what I call back to test theory.
Thinking of your trade,if you had put a stop just above where you went short so when it came back to test it you stay in,as in it tests it then heads back down the way you picked?.
looking for back to test patterns on all my time frames works well for me.
Cheers
Miner
you are aboslutely right about the back to test movement - thats where a bit of intestinal fortitude (guts) is required
1.0975 was eventually reached , but wouldve needed 150 pip stop.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by peat
I am thinking a good strategy would be to sell into 1.1250 stop loss 100. supposedly the target 1.09 but 1.1 might leave some for the next guy
text book butterfly set up ,i have been watching and trading this one for a while ,the price seems to gravitate towards that potential reversal zone, anyone got any thoughts on this onehttp://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...Jul2417.44.gif
Finally there seems to be a correction coming to this rate.
Talk of rising interest rates in Aus with a hold on rate rises in NZ looks to have started a turn around.
Hello All
Bo - I thought you were now Dumbass?
I have been following the beat of a different pair of wings...........
....first targets already hit with the action still moving north.
arco - from the butterfly house
I think moe has called it correctly
But all those dollars that it cost the NZ taxpayers for precisely nothing --- ouch !!!!!!!
i think you will find the way the nz dollar is moving it has made money for the taxpayer assuming your talking intervention
arco ......... i m dumbass and proud of it ...........
i have a spare copy of carney's harmonic trading volume 2 free , its a good read with some interesting concepts , its bugging me no ones reading it , shall i send it to the Monte Carlo address.
seriously if you want it email me and i ll post it for nought or anyone else if arco doesnt want it ,
great call arco , you see things that are right under my nose that i dont see , in fact your the one who should be writing a book.
DA
Thanks for the offer - I'd be interested in reading it, and I've sent you a PM.
Re writing a book...yes a few old posters may remember me starting to write a book
but I havent got around to finishing it (yet) . Maybe, one day.
Rgds - arco
Red BF still moving nicely towards the north potential target zone
(see previous chart - red box at top) with a high so far of 1.1503
GTA - arco
These thumbnail images are proving very erratic for me in terms of whether they open or not... even when they do, they are too small to read.
Oh well - question I was hoping to answer by looking at the chart - are we through arco's red box yet?
Hi Lizard
Yes I agree the thumbnails are too small, and therefore I have taken another shot
for you using photobucket.
The present high at 8pm is 1.1583, with the current run being up circa 668 pips
max so far. The chart below shows only upto yesterdays EOD, and the RED BF
target zone is the overhead red box.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v5...407Aud.Nzd.gif
rgds - arco
Thanks Arco. Much appreciated. I'm afraid I'm a terrible lurker on your forex threads - since I have little to say on the subject.
Your rep points upped in gratitude. :)