When the Symm Triangle breaks we could see a nice run
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/eur.yen_102506.gif
GTA - arco
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When the Symm Triangle breaks we could see a nice run
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/eur.yen_102506.gif
GTA - arco
Worth watching for a long after the run back up from last nights dip?.
Cheers
Miner
Well was a nice long,anyway arco any update on your Symm Triangle ?.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
Re the Sym Tri.
The upper line was broken by Mondays white candle, and now yesterdays small black is testing the line for change of polarity.
If that holds it indicates EYen could continue north bound in the near future.
regards - arco
Ta for that arco,thought it must be testing the upper line,it's one I watch every day so see how we go,messy today like my other three but they usually warm up at night.
Cheers
Miner
Testing your line tonight arco.
Cheers
Miner
Long at 150.68,see how we go.
Cheers
Miner
yeh i got in at 150.56 once I saw it break, with a tp of 150.99 so 45 pips banked overnite , cheers guys.
Just about woken up,was a late one,to see I am still in,it has topped for the day at 151.48,so arco where would you put a in the money stop?,good you made some pips peat.
Cheers
Miner
Just taken out at 151.19 after moving stop up from 151.15,O well made a few pips.
Cheers
Miner
shouldnt the target for this breakthrough be quite large given the length of the compression phase. I can see its pulled back now, but just wondering if this gives us a new chance to reenter....
Hi Peat
Yes, it certainly looks that way.
As a matter of interest. Ichimoku Monthly gave a buy signal 4472 pips ago, and neither the daily, weekly or monthly Ichi charts show signs of a reversal signal as yet. Therefore a scaling in off the fib retracements might work.
regards - arco
A little light weekend reading..................
A farewell to zero by Hisane Masaki
TOKYO - The countdown has begun to the Japanese central bank's exit from years of ultra-loose, near-zero-interest-rate monetary policy, amid growing signs of a recovery taking root and chronic deflation finally releasing its grip on the world's second-largest economy.
The Bank of Japan's departure from its so-called "quantitative easing" policy, possibly as early as next week and probably by the end of April at the latest, is widely seen as a foregone conclusion. So the biggest questions now are: Exactly when will the BOJ make the move? And what will come next?
BOJ governor Toshihiko Fukui has suggested for a while that the end to the quantitative easing policy is coming soon. In his strongest signal to that effect, Fukui told an upper house committee of the diet, Japan's parliament, on last Thursday that he hopes "immediately" to end quantitative easing once the conditions for doing so are met.
Under the present policy, which was introduced in March 2001, the BOJ flooded Japanese financial markets with excess cash in the hope of encouraging lending, while anchoring short-term interest rates near zero. The BOJ has vowed that it will stick to the policy until deflation (a continuous decline in prices), which has long plagued the Japanese economy, is beaten. Deflation has acted as a drag on the economy by eroding corporate earnings and paychecks. Fukui, who took the BOJ helm in March 2003, has won the confidence of the markets largely by being seen as more firmly committed than his predecessor, Masaru Hayami, to quelling deflation.
The BOJ has set three conditions for ending the quantitative easing policy:
Year-on-year changes in the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile prices of fresh foods, must remain stable above zero.
BOJ board members must be convinced that deflation will not return.
There should be no other factors that warrant keeping the loose monetary settings in place.
The BOJ has not always done a stand-up job in fulfilling its mission. In August 2000, it announced an end to its zero-interest-rate policy, which had been in place since February 1999, and raised interest rates too early. This, coupled with the bursting of the information-technology bubble in the United States, plunged the Japanese economy back into recession. In the face of a barrage of criticism, the BOJ restored the zero-interest-rate policy and introduced the quantitative easing as a main tool to steer its monetary policy.
This time around, however, the BOJ is more confident of its policy shift. Concerns over Japanese financial institutions have eased significantly as the once-huge mountains of bad bank loans returned to normal levels. Major companies have cleared away the excess debts, equipment and labor that had weighed on their fortunes, and are expected to log record profits for the current fiscal year ending this month. The BOJ has been increasingly encouraged by recent upbeat economic data showing that Japan has finally emerged from the decade of stagnation that ensued after the "bubble economy" burst in the early 1990s.
Industrial output in 2005 posted its highest level since 2000. In a preliminary report on Tuesday, the government said industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in January from the previous month, the sixth straight monthly increase. The January output index stood at its highest level since 2000.
Unemployment declined for the third year in a row in 2005, to 4.4% from 4.7% in 2004, with the December figure down 0.2 percentage point from November's 4.6%. In December, the number of job offers and job seekers matched for the first time in more than 13 years. Amid the impr
I'm not sure that article helps me go long Eur vs Yen , but at this stage thats what the graph looks like, so I'm in again at 151.22. Tight stop tho.
When JPY appreciation does come, after the fear of further deflation is defused it could be massive turnaround. Jyske bank have been talking about this for ages (and getting it wrong as they short these JPY crosses) but one day I suspect they will be right.
Evening Peat
I try not to let outside influences affect my charting logic, otherwise I will be lost.
I always remember that old quote.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
- Keynes
e.g. Whats to stop EuroYen going to 155?
Anyway, the answer for me is always the chart. If I base my decisions off that one thing I can work on a logical trading system with set rules.
The chart rules - long live the chart.
Have a great weekend
arco
Spotted this...not that it makes any difference in a charting sense, but its interesting none the less.
Asked about carry trades, in which investors borrow cheaply in yen and use the funds to invest in higher-yielding currencies, Fukui said the BOJ was cautious about the risk of a sharp unwinding of the trades when the market's expectations of interest rates change.
He said the yen's low interest rates are helping to swell the carry trade and his staff is still trying to determine how big the phenomenon has grown.
"If the size is very big and expectations for (global) interest rate movements change suddenly, there are substantial risks of a sharp unwinding that could cause various distortions, so we are watching this with vigilance," Fukui said. "We need to communicate with markets to make sure they don't find our monetary policy a surprise."
The yen carry trade has been cited as a factor behind the yen's recent weakness, as players sell their borrowed yen to buy other currencies.
The yen edged slightly higher against the dollar and the euro after Fukui's comments on the carry trade, which came as the Japanese currency was trading near a record low against the euro.
Hi Peat
As Arco says often best just to do your own thing,as for me if I read what other people think it just puts there thoughts numbers in my head,I could be reading FXCM's charting picks but don't as my system works well so just stick to it and do what my system tells me.
Like eur/jpy will probably be a long again but on Friday my system said sit on your hands if looking for a long as it was way to messy,so wait for it to get it's act together then it "may" look like a nice tidy "easy" long.
What I have changed lately though is I am now more patient,as in I just wait for the right entry,if I try and push a trade it goes to custard,so just wait for the right trade for my system,a + with this is I can run very small stops,but when I get it wrong I and know it I just jump,NO emotion is a big part of getting it right.
Just some thoughts that I thought might help,good luck with your trading.
Cheers
Miner
Yes theres good and bad with other peoples opinions whether it be macro economic perspectives or specific trades. I'm staying away from global-view forum at the moment as it mucks with my head all those viewpoints. After all the ultimate goal is to be able to read the charts independently.
I just thought I would comment too, that I was watching Eur/Jpy towards the close on Sat morning (our time) and the volatility was amazing!! Jumping around by 10 pips or more at a time over the course of seconds , up and down again and again. Kinda wondered whether it would be possible to trade that.
I'm holding my long on this pair.... so I'm quite long on the Euro overall as am holding long Eur/Gbp as well. We've had a correction on that one and now the flag is forming, which way will it break?
Hi Peat for me when it is jumping around it is too dodgy,why play when you can wait and do a safer trade,as when it is messy you just get taken out,I look for turn signals and for them to test previous high lows(look at usd/jpy,usd/chf and eur/usd today).
Am watching for eur/jpy to turn north on 150.74(look at daily) but in saying that don't get it stuck in my head.
Allot of my system is picking the turns,so start of runs big or small and often trade one pair by watching another,eg usd/jpy led usd/chf and eur/usd today,2 south one north.
I use the KISS method.
Cheers
Miner
The Reserve Bank has joined other central banks in buying Japanese yen...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/st...ectid=10410565
(another article not supporting my current positions haha)
??? guess my stop at 150.89 got taken then.... [:I]
looks like some Jpy GDP figures came out....
GDP QoQ 0.5 v 0.2
Annualized 2.0 v 1.0
Deflator -0.8 v - 0.7
Bummer peat,I was long eur/usd but the b*gger didn't run the same so B/E stop got hit,and now it's going back up[B)].
Cheers
Miner
stealing this comment from another forum ...
" 150.75 previous double top, 150.80 yesterday low, 150.69 today's low (so far)...it seems this area become strong support now? "
Maybe remember I mentioned 150.73 yesterday,maybe let it settle first?,but best to do your own thing.
Cheers
Miner
Peat if your looking for a long it looks like it may be doing the back to test thing,15min,5min charts for 150.69,so might be a long off that.
Cheers
Miner
too distracted at work to decide.... will review this evening.
Good decision as unless your mind is 100% on the job don't play.
Cheers
Miner
was braver last night and got in at 150.91 (my previous stop out) and closed just now for +50 ...
todays green candle really adds a lot more weight to the breakout
and it completes the rising three methods candle pattern formed over the previous 4 days. altho the first dark candle of the pattern looked suspiciously like a bearish harami cross.
[8D]
a lot talk around today about PBOC buying Yen.
Yen Rises After China Central Bank Says It Bought the Currency
By Ron Harui and Chris Young
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The yen gained after China's central bank said it had bought Japan's currency with its foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest at $1 trillion.
Asked whether the central bank had been buying yen, People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Wu Xiaoling said: ``We have.'' She declined to say if the pace of buying had increased. Central banks in Russia, Switzerland and New Zealand are building holdings of yen, anticipating Japan's currency will rebound from a 20-year low on rising interest rates and the longest economic expansion since World War II.
Worth a watch to see if it gets through 153.42,going to give it a go by the look of it.
Cheers
Miner
Blind faith in the US is only going to get you slaughtered in this game,unless you know if and when Nth Korea will fall and how many thousands of pips and which way(long or short?) until then.
Cheers
Miner
Well tested and through 153.42 for now chaps.
Cheers
Miner
This one and usd/jpy both worth a watch for a long today.
Cheers
Miner
There have been some good pips in this one the last few days(same with it's mate usd/jpy),still worth watching for more north or south as they have been big moves.
Miles better than my other 2 pairs,as have said before eur/jpy is a good(usually tidy) pair to watch.
Cheers
Miner
Short looking for 155.75 on the daily,but 156.46 to get through first,see how we go.
Cheers
Miner
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9866/fxfxrx3.png
My usual rough lines but you get the idea I hope?,very tight stop though.
Cheers
Miner
yeh bit of a fear holding short yen positions with G7 comin up
"EUR/JPY falls sharply as U.S. hedge funds, European securities firms unwind long positions due to G7 concerns, say senior customer dealers at major Japan banks. One tips first support 156.25, then 156.00 in Asia vs last 156.50 on EBS. USD/JPY also falls, may target 120.25 in Asia vs last 120.77 on EBS. "Some players who bought the dollar after the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls last week are probably unwinding positions, trying to hit stop-loss sell orders," one says."
Ta peat,I just trade off my screens and never read anything,BUT please don't take that the wrong way as I read what you post,I just don't go looking for it,so keep posting the info.
Going to get stopped in a tick I think as usd/jpy has turned back up,still was an ok trade pattern.
Cheers
Miner
thats cool miner , I just thought you might like a fundamental perspective alongside your technicals (as indeed you did).
I reckon you should stay short if you can.... direction seems to be down and retracement is bouncing back of 31% fib - (120.90) of todays drop. (USD/JPY)
And Eur/JPY is weaker , but hey.... you know what you're doing.
1 minute graph of USD/JPY today with fib lines.
http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/3...5022007vh4.jpg
Well Peat it went through my 155.75,could have stayed in with a break even stop too,you where right about holding for a south move,should have gone with my first thought as that is often the right thought[B)];).Quote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
Short looking for 155.75 on the daily,but 156.46 to get through first,see how we go.
Cheers
Miner
Cheers
Miner
Well long at 156.75,if you look at the 15min chart you will see the "U" pattern that I entered on,same with usd/jpy,eur/jpy through but now need usd/jpy to do the same on 15min.
Also thinking it got over sold on china news,so sanity comes back and may be an ok ride north,see if it does and if I can stay in.
Cheers
Miner
well its decision time for the Eur Jpy
we have (coinciding) a 61.8% retracement of the fall from 163.59 to 161.90
and a 161% extension of the first rise from 161.90 to 162.57.
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/8...lymediujy5.jpg
so seems my level of pivot was right... i only managed to short it at 162.38 currently +70
stopped for only 20.
Yen slides to 4-1/2 year low vs dollar
Fri Jun 15, 2007 11:04 AM BST
By Toni Vorobyova
LONDON (Reuters) - The yen hit a 4-1/2 year low versus the dollar and a 15-year trough against sterling on Friday after the Bank of Japan left interest rates on hold and gave limited guidance on future tightening.
The dollar was broadly firmer as investors expected U.S. inflation data could boost the view the next move from the Federal Reserve on rates would be up rather than down.
The BOJ left rates at 0.5 percent and Governor Toshihiko Fukui said he had no preconceived idea about a future rate rise, adding that he wanted to be more convinced on the sustainability of domestic capital spending and consumption.
"Fukui was pretty neutral... The market wants to sell the yen and so the news seems to be interpreted in that direction... I think the bias in the yen is still towards weakness," said Steve Barrow, currency strategist at Bear Stearns.
He added that risks to his six-month dollar/yen forecast of 129 were to the upside, and forecast euro at 180 yen.
By 0935 GMT, the dollar was up 0.4 percent at 123.45 yen, its highest since December 2002. Technical strategists say from here, the path is fairly clear up to 125.70 yen.
The euro was up 0.5 percent at 164.33 yen, closing in on the record high above 164.60 set earlier in June.
The single currency was steady at $1.3312, having hit an 11-week low this week.
Both sterling and the Australian dollar hit 15-year highs versus the low-yielding yen.
Rising equity markets contributed to a risk-loving environment, encouraging carry trade investments funded by cheap borrowing in the yen. Continued low FX volatility also helped.
INFLATION, TICS
Rallying U.S. Treasury yields and recent hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve have wiped out expectations for a Fed interest rate cut this year. These expectations had weighed on the dollar for several months.
"As activity data seems to be reasonably constructive and inflationary pressures still the issue for the Fed, it doesn't seem there's any obvious reason for the Fed to (cut)," said Jeremy Stretch, market strategist at Rabobank.
"Certainly for this year ... the Fed is happy just to be able to maintain a steady policy stance."
The U.S. inflation data due at 1230 GMT is expected to show that the core consumer price index rose by a moderate 0.2 percent in May from April.
Also due are speeches by Fed officials including chairman Ben Bernanke, U.S. May industrial production figures, June consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan, first quarter current account data and April capital flows numbers.
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/...nvesting.aspx?
rpc=401&type=hotStocksNewsUS&storyID=2007-06-15T100439Z_01_
T360067_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX.xml
hi arco going back to failed patterns, this is a good example of a failed bearish crab, the harmonic numbers tested and bounced.do you ever use this failure as a bullish confirmation, which would have worked nicely.
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...Jul2518.49.gif
Hello b
I had that harmonic on my chart but I classed it
as a completed shape on 16th April-3rd May, (it failed
to follow through twice).Based on a pivot break there was no
entry taken.
IMO extending the legs further than that would create a
distortion which I would not normally trade off.
rgds - arco
I guess this perspective is repeating itself on a few pairs but this one has turned back from the 78.6 level
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/9...3102007oe9.jpg
prpbably would need a stop above 166 so from current levels thats 120 pips. as the 161% ext of AB is at that level and and so is the AB=CD level.
just scanning through the charts , this is in prz , divergence on q stick , bearish engulfing and peat confirmation
lol at the peat confirmation
I am a contrarian indicator!
this came from Jyske Bank just now
Good Morning,
We expect ECB will leave rates unchanged at today’s meeting-
We expect BoE will leave rates unchanged.
EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURJPY, and EURCHF have formed tops and we expect that USD will strengthen over the coming days.
Evening chaps thought was about time I posted a KISS U trade,a bit late as been watching for a while but still going ok and setting up for new target tonight.
Anyway blow the daily out to 07/20 and the high of 168.85,then the low turn of 149.21 at 08/17,so it has turned,the entry I looked at after this was on 09/09 at 155.15,first target 165.39 from 08/08.
So today-tonight we look like we may be through this so next target (on daily) of our first number 168.85,through that and uptrend back in place.
See also tonight it's confirmation mates are playing the game,eur/usd nice north and usd/chf south,it's usual partner in crime usd/jpy doesn't know what it is doing,but should follow.if so you get the jump on the move.
No doubt there are charty patterns for what I am looking at but you know me just simple U trades,hope was of some help or at least a laugh hehe.
Been busy so only been nibbling at this move but up 70 pips on one and 130 on the other long at the mo.
Cheers
Miner
Hmm just had a look to see what else was posted on this pair and see you guys where looking short,and here I was looking long hehe,anyway past my bed time so catch you later.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
Major Gann is waiting above circa 167.00 so we shall soon see if he can repel the advance.
rgds - arco
Morning Arco that he did but still made a few pips,and usd/jpy did follow north for a bit later in the night,so there was a jump on that move.
Nice big red hourlys so using the reaction for every action theory (the bigger the better) should be an ok day to watch.
165.37ish is what I am looking at,if it holds then will be looking north,testing 117.10 on it's mate usd/jpy now.
Jyske Bank from peat's post was only a couple of hundred pips out Hmm.
Cheers
Miner
Got on this one late as at 166.51 , but if this hour closes out ok then will be looking for a nice U back to last nights high (on the hourly)same thing with usd/jpy,tight stop behind it though,last hour ok close,see how we go.
Cheers
Miner
Heres the potential BF I mentioned on the ALERT thread
Formed by a triangle breakout, when the action reverted to
the UT line and apex.
head and shoulders on the 15 min??
eg neckline about 162.50 - starting from 1400 Nov 30
wondering if its about to break through on the downside any time. ?
closed that for +62 but that line is truly broken now... could be a chunk more.
another short 20 pips up from the previous buy back so thats at 1.6172
You're on a roll Peat....
....nice trading.
I had a sell limit at 162 and it was registered but didnt trigger my order.
Peat
FYI Metatrader platform shows a high of 161.99
I went in a bit earlier at 161.84 and 161.67
+57 & 40 presently.....
rgds - arco
in the end all to no avail. kinda knew that 60 or 70 would have beena good take but set stop to break even and went to bed so... nil zip zero nothing :+|
Evening Peat
I guess that high 'C' leg Gartley on the 1 hr chart which gave a Morning Star pattern at midnight (on the 618), would have warned us of a potential reversal in the wings.....well if we were not in the land of nod that is.....
On to the next one:)
Potential low risk short for 800-1000 pips perhaps.
I've added a possible EW count, which appears to
show an ABC underway. The chart should be fairly
explanitory
bit of a wake up call here this morning!!!!
tide definitely started to turn about 10 PM last night.
Nice to wake up to a surprise................
Eur.Jpy - off to a good start.......193 pips at the moment.
(Another short order @ 165.00 just missed entry by a few pips).
Also Cable order @ 2.0440 also got triggered - currently + 102.
eur jpy a buy
impulsive wave up , hammer
divergence on hourlies
may be a triangle forming good for a run into the 160s
600 pips +
the girl spotted a W so we;ve put in a trade on it for her. she can pay up if it loses ;)
sell @ 158.56 stop 159 take 157.5
looking like a short in play on this one which may back up short on eurusd
trendlines converging
butterfly and a gartley prz around 165
shooting star candlestick
divergence on hourlies
apologies i have chucked up prettier stuff than this chart
short from 164 sl 165
Hi All
Yes looking quite interesting now for a potential reversal
pattern in the green box, and off the upper channel line
rgds - arco
looking like a move is on
200 + but still eur weakness rather than yen strength
so should accelerate lower when yen comes in
the dilema of risking big counter rallys but hanging on for the big move lower
my target on this one 155 , lower TL now established looks like you could still short with a risk limit 16320
personally i try and jump on probably too early at the turn to be able to ride the big moves
but i do get stopped a fair bit because of that .
Bilo
IMO its always wise to expect large wave gyrations in crosses like Eur.Jpy.
What we are seeing here now is a retracement of the previous move. Check out my recent post on Gbp.Nzd thread and you will see one of the many ways of dealing with this potential move/setup.
rgds - arco
Thanks for the reply Arco. i had a bit of trouble finding a thread and then uncertain of what I found. NZD.GBP. A Xerof post. Does this suggest that you either let it run or sell at the new established point? it raised the question of how high is it likely to retrace to?
Hi Bilo
No you want to be here - post #2 (Sperandeo)
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5947
rgds arco
hi bilo
Sperandeo entry in action
even got a change in support line turn to resistance
this entry would have given 350 pips
i was short from 164 for 500 pips but i believe has many more to go
much lower target
USD/JPY doing the same since the turn last night.
Cheers
Miner
Should we make that a 12 pack of Stella Bilo :) ....then I'll be really refreshed and ready to search for more butterflies. Its hot work.
Of course you could always join my butterfly tipping service for $500 PM :D
rgds - arco
good risk reward on short eur jpy
if this count is correct short 161 35 sl 162 for minimum target 158 50
completley overweight on short already but have had a go at picking top on retracement
very nice call already! well done paul that overweight must feel a bit lighter now at 160.40
thanks peat
usd cad long looks good as well
i will post on correct thread
one nights sleep is a long time in the markets , yet i will have nothing bad said about the yen crosses . i love em theres always something happening
stopped out for a big fat zero , yes i could set tight stops but on the yen crosses you will more or less certainly get stopped and miss the big move
main position stop sitting at 163 from 164 entry
have entered again just now on bearish gartley on hourly and trendline resistance at 162 30 sl 163
fingers crossed
yeh that was a nasty move back DA - think I jinxed it for ya , it turned straight after my post :o
good to hear you had it covered to prevent actual pain tho and that your enthusiasm is undaunted. thats one thing about forex - no shortage of opportunity
and yeh you're right thats a perfect .618/.786 gartley
certainly got the reciprocal midas touch this week
hanging on with this trade close to getting stopped out for a pathetically small amount
have promised to have a tighter stop if the patron saint of forex lets me have another chance
161 will get me to fiji but looks like i need a dow jones melt down to get me on the plane
technical question
eur jpy has tested 163 on multiple occasions and been repelled
is this resistance viewed as getting more formidable or is viewed as getting weaker with
each attack
my personal view is weaker but interesting to here views
ps no scary images just a chart honest
i remember reading somewhere recently that the longer a chart takes to break through resistance then the more explosive the movement will be. but that isnt exactly what you're asking right now.
I guess what I am saying tho is that if it does break (either way) it will be well worth following
Quite an interesting pattern on the longer time frames.....
Anyway, I'll be away for a few weeks....so the action will play out
without me.....
regards - arco
Hi Peat,
watching this one for possible reversal,it touched 169 this morning after FOMC,
bullish count seems to point to a multi month triangle with 5 waves labelled a - e
there was an impulsive 5 wave break out labelled 1
and now waiting to see where abc wave 2 correction will complete
only a possibilty but price now hitting triangle boudary with some fib cluster
no real confidence but just maybe a rally from 163 ? what do you think guys
do you favour eir jpy over eur usd miner ?
im having a look at a long eur jpy
Hi Dumbass yep most of the time as eur/jpy has more movement therefore giving trading opps,eur/usd can like usd/chf go sideways allot,so harder to pick which way they will break(but in saying that they both have been good lately).
So eur/jpy easier to pick and usually with bigger pip moves,watching both at the mo as they are moving in tandem,been long a few times today but break even stop keeps getting hit,long again at the moment,162.50 may have been an ok long number today,see how we go.
Cheers
Miner