In your own good time you may wish to share wish us your "next opportunity".?
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Nice little increase over the last few days, glad I bought in. Seems the market has liked the last 2 announcements.
Added to the NZX50 from 24 December.
Plus CEO Norah Barlow is a finalist in the Herald's Business Leader of the Year. All good ...
Does anyone have any indication of when SUM will start paying dividends?
I see they already have a DRP. ( http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/NZX...tment_Plan.htm )
I seem to remember either hearing or reading it would be at the end of this year.
Interesting fact.
When Ryman had a market cap of roughly $485 million in 2005 (what Summerset is now) it was making about 24 miilion in profit. Summerset makes 6 million. Rymans return on equity was around 12.5% while Summerset is 1.8%
It could be a swift tumble if things turn sour/people lose hope in SUM.
Report at the end of the month will be interesting. It has creeped up a bit the last few days and a little more interest and volume being shown. P/E ratio is crazy but this should lower as the earnings rise. This is definitely one to watch and is one of my picks for the year. Hopefully a dividend announcement will attract more investors as well.
Without delving into any analysis, this suggests that either RYM's market cap was too low at the time it was $485M, or SUM's market cap is too high now, or a bit of both.
RYM market cap at $485M equates to $0.97 per share. This was the price around March 2006.
Same market cap with a 4 times difference in profits and 6 times difference in Return on Equity between the two.... I don't think changes in market sentiment over the last 6 years would have caused a difference this big. Your view Hoop?
I think SUM has become very overpriced.
I haven't looked at anything in detail, but going by their forecast 2012 full year profit of $9.7 million (from moosie_900's post) and 214,819,360 shares on issue, that would come to 4.5c earnings per share.
And at today's closing price of $2.46, that's a PE ratio of 54.67!
Total guess here, I think at current prices, it's taking into account what SUM would be earning in 2 years time?
I was accumulating up to $2 and stopped after that, would dearly love to buy more.
I hope when SUM do report, the market will be disappointed and it'll go down to $2 so I can buy more!
I agree Jay.... NZ stocks like SUM, PPL .. etc.. are over hyped.. too many mums and dads.. have jumped in, perpetuating the capital gain..
coz deposit rates are low and boring, investing in finance companys is akin to buying aticket for a Jet star flight... not cool... the SUMS and PPLs investors will eventually ( those buying at current prices ) get whacked...
the real money will be made , eventually in the likes of WID, CRP, BLT, etc
First of all my sympathy to Kathleen Corbett's family.
Very difficult when an old person has been in hospital.Hospital does not want them staying taking up a bed.So family needs to find somewhere for the person to be cared for.Summerset failed to take care in this case.This is likely to be a "growth area" for rest homes,so as hospitals do not become clogged up. As the person has been in hospital,and is still unwell,rest homes are going to have to offer a "hospital" type service.
I trust Summerset,Ryman and Metlife can, and will lead the way in provding this "hospital" type service.
Not defending SUM, but I did a bit of searching, and came up with the following interesting links regarding retirement villages, some of which are historic:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/retirement...ectid=10735966 refers to the Eldernet group
http://www.consumer.org.nz/reports/r...s-investigated
http://www.consumer.org.nz/content/u...(Part%201).pdf this article mentions two, one RYM, one SUM, and is a worthwhile read
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=10660260 refers to Norfolk Court in Dargaville, Eldernet group
So SUM is in the news right now, but undoubtedly there will be other similar media items, which might refer to any one of a number of villages, as time moves on. Theft by staff is another issue which has drawn media attention in the last year, and if I remember correctly one of the villages involved was RYM, another SUM. No retirement village is going to be perfect, 100% of the time, as much due to the nature of the clients they deal with, quality of staff, as anything else .
[So SUM is in the news right now, but undoubtedly there will be other similar media items, which might refer to any one of a number of villages, as time moves on. Theft by staff is another issue which has drawn media attention in the last year, and if I remember correctly one of the villages involved was RYM, another SUM. No retirement village is going to be perfect, 100% of the time, as much due to the nature of the clients they deal with, quality of staff, as anything else .[/QUOTE]
Thanks Karen1,all very true.We must also remember our hospitals fail to offer proper care at times.
Unfortunately we are human ,make mistakes,and can do better.
That understood ,the likes of SUM,RYM,and MET have a record good care.
Hi Percy, you're quite right, hospitals often fail, public and private. I wont start on the "medical misadventure" side of things! Suffice to say, often, to err is human..
What I do know is, one of the hardest choices in life is where to put your ageing parent/s, or yourself. Vigilance, 24/7, is a prerequisite for care of the aged, from all concerned - family, staff, etc.
I overlook a rest home, with sevenl units in my immediate view. These units house independent, mainly sole occupants. The staff are reasonably vigiliant, but sadly in many cases the families are not. At least 5 occupiers only get visits at Christmas and presumably birthdays, judging by the sudden surge in visitors. The rest of the year must seem very long. Too often families are quick to point the blame when something goes wrong, but perhaps if they took more interest themselves they might in fact prevent a wrong occurring, although that appears not to be the case which started this latest discussion.
Thanks Sparky, I appreciate your comment to my post - I have followed you since you joined, and enjoy your posts.
Not necessarily poor of RYM to have an incident of theft in a new village, stealing from clients happens too often in rest homes, and not only by staff.
For anyone with parents in a retirement village/home: I recent foiled a burglary attempt next door (post 141), whereby a woman who used the grounds as a shortcut got chatting with a resident some months ago, and apparently he gave her some money (he's a bit gullible). The day I saw a problem the woman had returned with a friend, and I looked out in time to see the two of them going inside the unit and rang the home. The staff acted very quickly, and the two females were caught and sorted out by the Police. This sort of thing must happen in retirement villages, but it would often be under anyone's radar, except perhaps if family visited regularly and a conversation rung alarm bells.
As per post #141, VIGILANCE has to be number one. Having cared for an elderly family member and seen and dealt with some terrible events, I can speak from experience.
Add still it continues. Must be looking at good results at the end of the month.
Maybe if it was abrothel.. then ACC would have allowed it. useless pen pushes.
The share price could possibly be staying up due to anticipation of a good full year result on Monday. I'm looking forward to it!
Looks like nothing but good news in that result
ive got a good feeling about these shares, I reckon they will be up over the $3 within the next 2 months
What are similar asx co's? I mean age care providers.
their recent results and the current trend with the sp. It hasnt been down since the ipo, it seems the only way this ones going is up. I suppose its just a hunch but a confident one.
Well as long as you are confident.
SUM is up quite a bit over the past 6m/1y when compared to RYM and MET. What is stopping it from stagnating while the other catchup. They all have the same tailwind behind them but with differing skills of management.
My question is why have you chosen SUM over RYM or MET. If it is just a hunch, what does you gut same on Red vs Black?
well Ive only recently started in the share game so I mainly buy of trends and all 3 have been on my watchlist for a while and MET and RYM seem to be very stagnant at the moment. SUM just seems like a steady and reliable stock thats only going up and was somewhat reinforced after there results.
thats good to know. how do we buy some or do you mean buy on market and price will drop similar to sky tvs a week or so ago.
Hi Sparky, last I knew was this, on 6 March: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10869436 and in light of that topped up the other day, not expecting to get in much cheaper. Have got a note in with a broker though, just in case.
Thanks for the info karen1.. You really know how to make my day.. :-))
Take up MRP !!.. Or concentrate on the shares that are being overlooked ( to put it one way ) whilst all the hype is going on..
As I mentioned to STC.. Funds are not bottomless.. If one is happy with ones holdings at present..
Divie time.. So a few sheckles are coming available.. Plus discretionary spending ..
So much to think about !!.. So little time .. :-))
By reliably informed, you mean what. I have been waiting for the opportunity to climb into SUM.
Any idea who is going to be underwriting it?
Ill bet Craigs is one.
Quadrant shares were in escrow until full year announcment
Then on Mar 6 they indicated to the NZ Herald that they were not about to sell, contary to market speculation
SO what other reason do you need .... sale imminent ..... probably as sparks says
Auadrant not a natural owner of Summerset anyway .... but haven't they done well
Not that I really care (not a holder, especially not one who has bought in since the 6th), but have they breached any rules for misleading the market (does that only apply to the listed company, not its shareholders). I don't think it could be classed as manipulation and not quite a pump and dump.
That was a vey clear statement so I think it would be extremely unlikely they changed their mind in the last 10 days.
That's the way it is these days where being sneaky and telling half truths is usual acceptable behaviour
If sparks is correct and quadrant sell down this week they knew a few weeks ago .....but denied it ....or as sparks said were flexible
That's the way the world is ...saying no is a yes as I said in earlier post ...the biggest signal they were selling Karen
Haven't old fashioned values and standards dropped
Prob one reason why snoopy doesn't bother go to c-Suite to find out about a company .....those people are usually pretty sneaky as well
good post spearks ..... must have enjoyed your sultana bran and yoghurt for breakfast to be so insightful at this time of the morning
Interesting points .... lets blame the Herald reporter for being lazy and not looking Chris in the eye (but hard to do over the phone) and asking the hard question ..... easy reporter
I must have come across you in the Koru lounge at times sparks ..... maybe not as we probably going in different directions ..... but talking to C-Suite guys is always interesting ... as long as you understand what you hear is the the optimistics view.
Also agree one can learn heaps just from understanding how thinsg work ... even if not invested .... lke my morbid fascination of NPX over the years has taught me heaps more more about resins and other stuff than I already knew .... and that like percy says too many vice presidentos not always an effective structure ha ha
You mention the late 80's .... like now they got their commuppance even thoguh some did not change .... but on one hand 'standards and values' are important in life when it comes to the business world and investing they do a large degree go out the window (money does that eh) ..... so one needs to live with that .... and play the game and follow the sentiment to a large degree
in 10-15 years our conversation might be completely different
I've taken a few. Now hold a full hand of RYM, MET and SUM, just wish it was more of RYM and less of the others. Must work on that!
:cool:
Yes they have the right to do what they want.
But do they have the right to inform the market one thing, and do another? Normally, a fund would have the "we do not comment on speculation" approach so to make a statement, and "change" their mind within 10 days seems a bit insincere. If the stock had shot up after the announcement (say 10 or 20%), would you view be different (as it is, it performed just a bit better than the NZX50 and as usual, you would have done better putting you money into RYM).
Note: I am not personally annoyed at their actions. However, it is this sort of action that makes small investors not trust the sharemarket and invest in housing instead.
I just called my broker (asb sec) and they didnt know anything about the sale. she put me on old for 10 minutes then I had to go but this notice pretty says everythings already sold at the discount so looks like I missed out.
CJ - thats what i trying to say earlier .... standards and values mean nothing these days when money is involved .... esp when it comes to the greedy money men (sorry financial professionals) ... they think it smart to be clever like this
But mate - you need to live it ... at least until they get all their comuppance and the market starts to scorn such behaviour ..... maybe 5-10 years
But Chris saying what he did was the clear signal that they were going to sell down ... you need to read between the lines
"There has been a lot of speculation in the market - as markets are wont to do - but we have no plans to divest at this stage," I call BULLSH!T. Reading "between the lines" this was a bare faced lie and mislead the market. FMA should at least give them a public telling off even though if it went to court, they probably haven't breached any rules and would get through out quickly. Scare the sht out of them by threatening discovery of all their internal correspondence on SUM. As I said, this flagrant disregard is what causes lack of trust in the markets.
I will move on. As I said, I am not invested (monetarily or personally) in this stock.
I cried out, "Wolf!" Why didn't you come?" An old man tried to comfort the boy as they walked back to the village.
"We'll help you look for the lost sheep in the morning," he said, putting his arm around the youth, "Nobody believes a liar...even when he is telling the truth!"
The Boy Who Cried Wolf..Aesop fables...
My chart below shows SUM in a glorious long term uptrend punctuated by pauses for a "breather"...These pauses are healthy as it stops the share from suffering exhaustion which would result in a sharper sell off/price fall.
The TA indicators I use are biased towards money flow which shows up when sellers/buyers are active (distribution/accumulation)....however for SUM these default indicators may not be ideal as they seem to be crying wolf every time SUM takes a breather.
So..Here we are again..
TA indicator sell signals went of a few months showing divergence ...do we ignore them again??
I think so.. and wait for chart breaks to confirm if it is another cry wolf or not...the breaking of the trend line is not so important but if there is a support break at 2.48 as well then followed by the EMA50 break there would be technical damage occurring and exiting the share should be considered unless you are a long -term holder in which case your eyes would be on the EMA200 line
Disc: Hold SUM
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...UM15032013.png
I was going to ask this earlier and this may be a stupid question, and given that First NZ have offered at $2.42 also then perhaps have answered my own question, but do all brokers participating in a placement have to offer at the same price or can each broker try and 'place' it for as higher price as they think they can achieve?
I guess they would lose a fair bit of goodwill offering at a higher price than their peers...
Not in my experience. Craigs offered a placement to me for less then an other broker recently, cant recall which share atm..
Thanks Sparky, that makes sense. I guess then Joshuatree that Craigs were underwriting that placement you got cheaper than others?
What do posters value SUM at. I personally can not see a value anywere close to $2.40.
Remember they only grow fast because of resent new equity.(Anybody should be able to grow with new funds). Not sure if they keep this up on their own steam.
I am interested in some opinions on value.
Cheers Forest
Sparky,I would have thought that 30% is unlikely for 5 years without extra funds. I have SUM at a PE of around 36 at current price. It wouldnt surprise me if SUM SP will come back to $2.07.
What I also notice is that this placement is carried out just before the yearly accounts are publised, maybe they are not as flattering as people expect.
We will find out in the next few weeks.
That's pretty much it, I reckon.
The shares are being "placed" at $2.42 and "trading" is currently halted. Not absolutely sure of this but I would think that participating brokers are obliged to place shares at the placement price. Of course, if they take them firm themselves and on-sell at another price once the trading halt is over, that would be a different matter?
did anyone manage to get any through asb securties, im pissed I called them in the morning and they didnt know what I was talking about. they put me on hold for to long. called again later and they said we can give shares at a discount you need to buy whats on the market and by the looks of it trading is currently halted didnt know what they were talking about. then called again and the 3rd person said you needed an invite to get in on the $2.42 shares
They are just clerical/office staff and know nothing about the sharemarket. I had similar experience during Sky TV placement and called them first thing in the morning. The bloke I spoke to said that newscorp are selling on market! Luckily for me my wife has an account with Craigs and bought her some.
so how do you go about getting the someone who can do something. storm there front office
Summerset Group Holdings Limited advises that the strike price for the
dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) operating in respect to the dividend payable on 20 March 2013 has been set at $2.5963 per share.
Ouch!!!
Brokers must be loving it after a long time! Now, they are in demand. Back to good old days of irrational exuberance! Not in a bubble territory yet but I am just a retail investor with a small pocket!
The SkyTV placement was at 4.80.
When the trading halt was lifted, it did go as low as 4.85 on market, then up from there.
After the TradeMe placement last yr, I think it traded slightly below the placement price before moving on up.
I think we'd be lucky to get SUM @ 2.42 or under on market.
NO technical damage..2.48 support held See my chart post #213...so view this price drop as an opportunistic entry level... put my money where my mouth is...accumulated some more this morning
Back when Summerset was listed, my broker said that it would be an unspectacular "plodder" and was not cheap! My first ever equity investment was a subscription in the Infratil float despite a warning from my then broker, who said it would be a "boring" utility play. So, from experience, I should have known to ignore the broker advice against "plodders" and bought a Summerset holding earlier..... but I took a small plunge today! The insider buyer alert was the clincher for me.
Some of us are very lucky having an excellent broker.
I must admit posters on sharetrader have made me much more alert to what is going on.
sparky is a breath of fresh air,hoop keeps us "on the trend line"and many like mcduffy,winner69,lizard and balance keep us honest.
I attended the usual Shareholders Association meeting organized last year. The guest speakers were Ms Norah Barlow and Mr Julian from Summerset Group. After the meeting I was very impressed and I bought a parcel at $1.65 on 29-5-2012. Very impressive performance. Shareholders Association meeting often give good information on companies going forward.
I really must go to the Auckland meetings. Oops.
Sparky is trying to tell you contact Forbar and tell them you want to a REAL customer and take advantage of their services ....at a cost of course
Others include FCNZ .... Craig's etc
Never used but have seen this in my travels: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stock...?symbol=FBU.NZ
Tha best place may be under our noses ; asking your share trader community.We prob cover all the Brokers/Advisors etc.
pmpmpmpmpm
A successful replacement of shares is nearly completed...see depth
Much better than the STU and ATM replacements which overhung those stocks for weeks....It seems investors were much more keener to snap up SUM than those others.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...th20032013.png
Unfortunately my current broker only seems to analyze a limited number of companies. However, I find for a good summary on companies that the ft.com site is very good. It provides links to buy in depth reports from itself IC, reuters and other sources. For example on SUM:NZC see http://markets.ft.com/research/Marke...asts?s=SUM:NZC
Yes, many thanks, BJ!
Works for ASX companies too - suffix :ASX - unsurprisingly, although I first tried AUS, AUT, based on the NZC example!
Yes I too find it a great site.Have it on my favourites.So thanks Bjauck.
Thank you for that handy research!
I also especially like that you have a team of intelligence units reporting to you ;)
it's excellent - and I am most appreciative that people on this forum are happy to share their research with others!
After much agonising a new SUM shareholder is born. RYM a bit pricey for my liking. MET didn't really spin my wheels but SUM was the right mix of price point and potential. Thanks to all on here for the wealth of infomation and analysis.
I'd also like to add my thanks for the information shared on this thread. New to this forum and new to investing I decided the only way to learn to swim...was to get wet:)...and my first purchase was SUM.
I agree with the positive sentiments expressed here and bought in on fundamentals at $2.36 not too long ago.
Hoping that we get continued stream of good news and I expect to have a good dividend income stream from this stock in the years to come. At the moment I am happy for them to build their base business and have it all aligning for the future.
I rate SUM a stronger buy than RYM and believe they will outperform this year and then.....
Great long term hold.
Regards,
MPC