Prefer to listen to it myself; get much more out of it;)
Printable View
LPI ,a new one with the 4th highest grade salar in the world. Bought a few DYOR (i may or may not have done any)
It's going to be a very, very exciting month ahead for EMH. Let's see if I can do a little happy dance in the near future.
Very exciting month for many Li stocks, holding LRS and ADV myself. This year people will be blown away with how much electric and self driving cars enter the global market pushing the Li price through the roof.
LRS are currently drilling in the "Lithium triangle" of the world - Anything other then a null result will send the sp vertical.
ADV have just turned up 60m thick graphite and are currently mining for Li - Advantage of adv is there are two possible catalysts to send sp up.
Know when to hold them know when to fold them is what i keep reminding myself. jeez the takeup in NZ of electric cars seems very low so iscart ahead of the horse?.Anyone got any stats globally? Am all for it myself; environmental speaking. Not much to choose from here ,other than a 2nd hand nissan leaf with 150km range max or the premium Tesla..
Action in t Lithium stocks bodes well for the sector . Takeover offer of LPD by LIT.
EMH trading higher in London and Germany; still a very favoured sector to ride. Currently Holding ORE, EMH, LPI. DYOR
ORE a multi bagger but held for a long time
EMH a 4.5 bagger in a short time.
EMH final 3 drill holes PDF "The sheer size of Cinovec is highlighted by the 361m intercept which is in a league of its own in the lithium space""These results confirm or exceed our expectations"
And EMH's Cinovec is a non-brine deposit which China prefers.
Copied from Lithium World:
Brine versus Hard Rock
Okay well it seems consensus is that brines are cheaper and quicker to mine than hard rock, right? Well, that's what we've been told for many years. However, I'm starting to wonder if this is a bit like the drug companies running their own safety reports.
I'm not suggesting they are wrong, just rattling a few things around...
First of all who said brines are quicker and easier? Brine companies, analysts, wealth funds, and even independent researchers? So why would we question it? Well, I for one always think about vested interests and whether there is one. When I look behind the reports I look at who is providing the information and how it is derived. By the way, many of those reports are from North American origin where they know a lot about....brines...
Now I'm not suggesting what they say is not the case. This is more about the kind of questions that have been flowing through that cavity between my ears over the past few months. The more activity that goes on in there the more questions I get.
So here let's just look at some of the questions....I should state here that brines are really a by-product of the potash industry. So we have to include a bit about Potash because really they are mining for potash and getting a bit of lithium on the side. In the same way hard rock mining is mining for lithium and maybe some Tantalum as a bi-product. Kind of the other way around.
In analysing the question...
1. Who were we comparing too? For example, were we comparing the best brine deposit with the worst hard rock deposit? Or the other way around?
2. For hard rock, are we comparing only Spodumene or heaven forbid do they include other hard rock.
3. If Spodumene is so expensive to produce then why do the Chinese seem to prefer lithium concentrate from Spodumene?
Could it be a quality issue that is not mentioned in the reports.
I mean I lived there many years and I don't recall them ever using expensive products. Inferior at times, but never expensive.
4. Who estimates the price of lithium from brines? I mean potash is the big deal here so who decides how much of the cost factor is assigned to potash and how much to lithium. If Potash prices were low would they then assign less cost structure to Potash and more to Lithium in their reports. hmmmm...
5. Funny thing is I have heard the sweeping statements which is why I first sensed a bad smell in there somewhere. Who provided that information. Why does it seem that none of the reports give a detailed analysis of the cost factors they included.
6. They often refer to the initial cost as being low for brines but what about the on-going costs. What about the processing cost.
7. What cost factor do they put on the uncertain and often problematic nature of brines.
There seems a whole lot missing.
Now if anyone can show me a costs comparison with actual cost structures both initial and on-going, please do. Actually if anyone can show me any kind of reports with real facts and figures from start up to on-going supply I would really be fascinated. Small things things would be really handy like..
The location of both brine and hard rock resources.
The lithium content of both
The ability to upscale to technical grade.
The resource size of both
The amount of magnesium in the brine in question.
The local infrastructure
The evaporation rate of the brines in question.
The country risk
The elevation and access of both
The rainfall, humidity and average winds for the brine.
The scalability of both
The period of on-going comparison.
The end quality and comparative contaminants of both.
The amount of time to market once established.
The ability to up-scale for future demand
The relative damage of both to the environment.
and so on....
Anywhere you can point me would be great. I've read all the usual like how much quicker brines are to establish than hard rock. Not sure who they are referring to for brines? Orocobre? Who else is there? For hard rock? Who are they referring to? Pilgangoora?
You see the problem is that I can't currently see any way to so a real comparison on cost. I can on the length of time to mine and I found those assumptions so general as to be sort of uninteresting.
Anyway, thanks for all the detailed information I'm expecting to come my way. I do warn you that I will track the source of the information so please do not include that which is derived from vested interests. You know, good old fashioned independent thinking.
By the way I noticed Potash pricing falling considerably. Surely that would not be effected by a ramp up in brines? But that's another question....
Just a ramble so please excuse and spelling errors....
Have fun...it's a mine-field out there....
Lrs has had a very decent week last week, anyone interested in a speccy lithium play I would recommend reading up on LRS, Assays out in a few weeks and the sp will either go to the moon or retrace to 1c or so. Even if these first results aren't ideal they have 70,000 hectares of Argentinian lithium fertile ground.
Silicon will blow lithium batteries out of water, says Adelaide firm Too good to be true?
I love the reddit link, glad to see others here use it!
I've seen that article plastered across many hotcopper lithium plays, that reddit thread has some decent rebuttals to the idea though. I'm sure Silicon will play a role in batteries of the future, I'm also sure Lithium will too, technology isn't a 0 sum game - they will both win.
Yep Lithium is the proven tech atm; thats where the action is.
EMH with its great Lithium and great Tin resource is a bit hot atm over $1 equiv on other bourses. Lots more news to come BFS etc fuelling the anticipation.
LPI doing nicely too atm
ORE struggling around price wise a geriatric next to the youngsters.
EMH up 19.45% on the LSE to 0.654 GBP = AUD1.07!!
Currently still only holding EMH and GXY.
Great opening by EMH - jumped into No 3 of my biggest holdings. Let's hope all that money that is flowing into it at the moment is on the smart side.
And a T/H on LPI ..."Pursuant to ASX Listing Rule 17.1, Lithium Power International Limited (ASX: LPI) (“LPI”) seeks atrading halt, with immediate effect, in relation to material results of the completion of the resourcedrilling program, including our 360m drill hole to be announced to the market. "
LPI 2nd highest results in the world to date. S/P up another 10% to 42c was as high as 47c
DEEP DRILLING CONFIRMS NEW HIGH GRADE LITHIUM DISCOVERY
EMH now $1.27
How are other lithium stocks going; rising tide.....?
Sold a few EMH @ $1.29 (my entry 17c)today to free carry and make some cash profit to boot. These don't come along very often and I'm set for when the cap raise comes.
You got an awesome return from EMH there JT - well done. I'm still holding on to mine. I guess any cap raise might come with the PFS.
Thanks; its who i know not what; glad others have benefited with this one.Jeez s/p all over the place. From $1.30 down to 98.5c now back up to $1.22!!! in a very few days:confused:
Yes the PFS due in tomorrow if they are on time and they will be low on cash since the $3mill cap raise last qtr.
EMH.Still maybe a month away for pfs.
Heres the boss doing a short presentation'2017 will be a very busy year' says European Metals boss Keith Coughlan
EMH and GXY still my only lithium holdings. Cost production seems to be the No 1 issue for future explorers. ORE one example of high cost producer getting smashed on the share price. Currently staying away from buying any more stocks in this sector. However, this doesn't diminish my bullish hopes for EMH.
ORE been one of the top shorted stocks for awhile. latest announcement re downgrade in production for all of next year due to pond management issues a real kick in the proverbial. They manage to keep coming up with a stuffup and ,I absolutely do not believe management when they say no more cap raises; that guarantees there will be one. Long suffering holder here but from sub 50c .
PS ORE is not a high cost producer, re US$3500 a tonne excluding Royalties and corporate costs.Currently getting around $10,000 tonne for top grade. Plans to double production and build plant in Japan means ongoing finance.
LPI research report out . LOM for 30 years at 50% yield.Lots of derisking to go on this . 50% risk factor built in to this report.Download Now
ADV looking ready for a little run technical wise.
I don't hold.
EMH had a nice bounce on the LSE and announced the following:
"The Company announces that all reports pertaining to its imminent Preliminary Feasibility Study ("PFS") have been completed and are currently being collated. The Company now looks forward to announcing the key financial output of the PFS in April 2017.
The Company notes the recent increase in its share price on ASX, AIM and the German bourses today and draws shareholders' attention to the article published in Automotive News Europe within the past 48 hours discussing BMW's plans with regards to securing lithium supplies in Europe."
Hmm. The only article I could find was this one http://europe.autonews.com/article/2...man-power-play and unless they want us to follow a red herring it seems that we could be in for some exciting months ahead.
On a different note - I bought some Lithium Americas Corp (LACDF) on the OTC market after a positive DSF and some tweets I've seen. Fwiw they work on a $12,000/t price.
The results of the Stage 1 DFS are provided in Table 1 on a 100% equity project basis:
Table 1: Cauchari-Olaroz Stage 1 DFS Results
Stage 1 DFS
Lithium carbonate price $12,000/t Li2CO3
Average annual production 25,000 tpa Li2CO3
Expected project life 40 years
Project capital costs $425 million
Operating costs $2,495/t Li2CO3
Average annual EBITDA $233 million
Pre-tax NPV 10% discount $1,266 million
After-tax NPV 10% discount $803 million
Pre-tax IRR 34.0%
After-tax IRR 28.4%
Payback period 3 years, 5 months
Thanks silu; looking forward to today.There has been a bit of a lull in the Lithium space, my ones that is.
ORE has been getting up to $12,000 tonne too so thats feasible for LACDF. Not all product is top grade of course (for ORE anyway) so good to know what % of product are getting lesser $ too.
Taken another third off the table today @$1.295 ,buying something else.Will leave the last third in all going well and hope for a cap raise if the PFS satisfies an expectant mkt.
2/4 The DFS may take another year so plenty of time for the s/p to drop back hopefully.Interview with CEO Keith Coglan
https://youtu.be/XkKpiA2BNpk
Been wanting a useful site like this; gives sales increases in USA for electric cars etc etc etc. i note no renault zoe models there(these are taking off with the new 41kw powerpacks)
Inside EVs | Electric Vehicle News, Reviews, and Reports
Nissan may have a 60KW battery out soonish that will deal to range issues for sure.
Govt plan India vehicles to be all electric by 2030!!!
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/29/indian-oil-majors-prepare-electric-vehicle-boom/
I've been watching PLS (Pilbara Mines) for a while now but lately it has been dropping badly but am very tempted to look at anything below 30c. Anyone here holding?
Here's Motley's take on it -
http://www.fool.com.au/2017/04/18/wh...crushed-today/
I should have taken my own advise and sold some EMH off before the PFS. Market doesn't seem to like it.
Pulled the trigger and sold half of my EMH holding at 95c. Don't think the share price is going anywhere upwards for a while and am willing so sell them all should they fall even further in the days ahead. If there is one thing that I'm still learning as an adult in the investing world is that I still struggle with selling stock that has made me good returns. Here I am sitting on a +80% profit within less than a year and yet still feel sick about the lost opportunity.
IRR 21% less and cost per tonne (although the 4th cheapest in the chart supplied) more than expected by the mkt maybe. Still they are moving straight into the DFS from here. Folks also surprised re roasting then using LMax which although unproven was expected to be cheaper cost wise; just surmising. Plus or minus 25% cost wise so a lot of variables for the DFS to firm up about year away.
It took me years situ to learn to partially take profits on the way up to reduce my av price or free carry asap. Being aware of timelines between mkt moving announce,ments helps too. Protecting ones profits and capital becomes the first rule; but hey i still stuff up and take losing punts etc depending if its in the trading port or investment portfolio.
Thanks JT. I always forget that in my high-risk portfolio swings will be more severe and that I actually set it up so I can do the odd gamble and take profits along the way. I just got too emotionally involved with EMH. I still have a small parcel that is now almost free hold so I still have exposure to it.
Volatility plus in s/p.Recovering yest to $1.07 after dropping into 80's now re 95c
"Managing director Keith Coughlan said the PFS highlighted the potential for Cinovec to be "the world's lowest cost hard rock producer of lithium carbonate due to its unique geological and metallurgical characteristics", pointing out that Cinovec's location in central Europe was close to the many of the continent's vehicle manufacturers.
"These results, coupled with the macro outlook for the lithium industry, particularly in Europe, highlight the attractiveness of the project. As a result, we will move directly into a definitive feasibility study to accelerate the project towards development."
But some analysts said the study was a let-down and investors clearly felt the same, with the share price dropping as low as 0.83p on Wednesday afternoon from its previous close of 1.25p.
"Oh dear," said Yuen Low at Shore Capital, adding that an IRR of 21% would be pretty decent for large projects with capex and NPVs in the multiple billions of dollars range.
"For something the size of Cinovec, using historically high prices, we would have preferred to see at least 25%, and preferably significantly better.
"The marginal nature of the project is emphasised by its sensitivity to the lithium price assumption: a mere 10% reduction in the lithium price would see NPV fall to c.US$300m; a 20% reduction, to just over US$200m.
Given that AIM-listed EMH is still planning to complete a bankable feasibility study (BFS), let alone raise construction funding, build the project and go into production, he judged the current market cap of almost £100m was "rather fully" valuing the company at its present stage of development.
Broker SP Angel said a forthcoming definitive feasibility study should firm up the project parameters. "We look forward to future developments."
Research article from patersons valuing EMH @ $1.68 hasn't helped the s/p much; should settle down i hope.It is traded on at least two bourses.
Download Document 380.71KB
http://www.afcea.org/content/?q=Arti...-ion-batteries
Researchers at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory’s (NRL) Chemistry Division developed a 3-D zinc “sponge” architecture that will extend the life of the cells in today's single-use batteries and provide a safer alternative to fire-prone lithium-ion batteries, officials announced Thurs
Disclose ; sold my last holding in EMH today. Will watch from the side with the money in the tin.
Views on AJM.asx see they have some pretty huge upside on the back of the offtake agreements recently signed
I like AJM in this sector, but am holding NMT. I like there future plans beyond just Mt Marion. They tried to sell there 13.8% in the project but now keeping it on the back of price rise $US750 to $US841 DMT. Interesting IP technology JV with Mineral Resources (MIN) also.
On board AJM @15.5c see how this trades from here
Good luck JB. I sold my two lithium holdings in EMH and GXY for the time being. Would have held on to GXY if I wouldn't have needed the money for a house deposit.
Just sold LPI for great gains in another runup nearing two previous peaks. If I'm lucky i may buy back if/when it falls away again.
Also in on AJM, ADV, STA
My only lithium play is LACDF (Lithium Americas) on the American OTC market - sitting on +86% after buying early this year. Continuing to hold as it looks like a great project and well financed.
forgot to add - Congrats JT - always great to bank a profit.
GXY and AGY the big winners atm ORE (producer)tracking up too. AGY looks insanely overpriced.
Originally Posted by Joshuatree ]
3 down 8 up on 15/2/17. A few bolters
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Update on share prices ; haven't looked for dilution etc
12/4/16 26/5/16 7/6/16 , 30/6/16 11/08/16 7/10/16 15/2/17 3/10/17
LIT 25.7c 21.8c 24c ,27c, 24c,19.5c 17c, 13.5c
LRS 0.6c 1c 1.3c Schumacher pick ,1.7c, 1.4c ,2c,.003c
AGY 1.3c 3.7c 3.8c, 3.5c Brines next to ORE ,2.1c,2.6c, 2.9c,31c!!
EMH 25c 25c 37.5c ,47c,31c,55,5c, $1.27, 75c
NMT 45.5c 43c 46.5c,45.5c,38c ,34c ,34c,29c
GXY 36c 39.5c ,T/H today pending acquisition of GMM. Now 50c,40.5c,33.5c,54.7c,$2.74!
ADV 4.1c 3.9c 3.8c,2.7c,2.1c,2.6c, 2.8c, 2c
PIO 1.4c 3.5c 3.6c ,3.4c,2.4c, 2.1c, 2.5c, 1.4c
GMM 56c 61.5c T/H today see above 75c, 78.5c,71c, now WLC .009c Delisted
PLP/LPD 1.7c 2.3c 2.4c ,1.6c,1.5c,1.8c, 1.5c,1.2c
ORE $3.20 $4.17 $4.63, $4.73, $4.24, $3.32, $3.86, $4.70
CXO3.8c, 13.5c ,8,9c, 5.4c
LPI 30.5c , 42c, 39c
GXY had a 5:1 consolidation .
Nli (dko) 4/5/16 20c now 4.6c.
Sad! but great potential.
http://www.novolitio.net/investor-ce...tiation.01.pdf
Thanks clearasmud.
EMH up todayMemorandum of Understanding Signed with Czech Government
For those unaware of NMT, well worth a read of there projects/latest presentation, a 13.8 percent chunk of Mt Marion in production already, but with an option to use the production for there own downstream projects in the future.
Its in their IP and higher margin downstream projects that interests me and there links with MIN.
Unlike most of my shares, this is a long term investment to add to on SP weakness, as i can see juicy dividends down the track, and its my only exposure to lithium.
Cashed up, no debt and plenty on the go to keep up the news flow for the rest of 2017, yet the SP hasn't responded...
NMT getting some interest .....
looks a low risk BUY to me ... maybe not as exicting at AJM at the moment but a Good Buy n hold
Hot on the heels of Pilbara Minerals' deal with Chinese automaker Great Wall, it is believed Galaxy Resources has inked an agreement with Tesla battery supplier Panasonic.
Battery makers like Japan's Panasonic have been looking to lock in supplies of high quality lithium to ensure they have enough material to meet demand for their lithium-ion batteries, used to power electric vehicles.
Sources told Street Talk managing director Anthony Tse, chairman Martin Rowley and other directors were in Japan for a signing ceremony two weeks ago. Shipping data also shows product from Mt Cattlin being shipped to Japan.
Galaxy, capitalised at $1.1 billion, would appeal to these battery companies as it is one of the few producers that hasn't locked all of its production into agreements with long-term customers.
Galaxy currently supplies spodumene concentrate produced from its Mt Cattlin mine in Western Australia to lithium converters in China, which then make the lithium chemical used by battery manufacturers.
It has agreements to sell 120,000 tonnes of concentrate from Mt Cattlin in 2017 and is expected to announce a 2018 offtake agreement before the end of the year.
Galaxy is also developing the Sal de Vida lithium brine project in Argentina and has been flagging for months discussions with "investors, offtakers and potential strategic partners" for the project's production.
Galaxy chief financial officer Alan Rule told reporters on the sidelines of the Diggers and Dealers conference in August the company had held discussions with large car manufacturers about lithium supply, particularly from Sal de Vida.
"They are very active right now and they have been for the past couple of months," Rule said in August.
It comes after fellow West Australian lithium miner Pilbara Minerals struck a deal with Great Wall to sell up 150,000 tonnes a year of product from Pilbara's Pilgangoora project in Western Australia.
From today's AFR
KDR today 57 % IRR!Earl Grey Lithium Project Scoping Study Results
https://www.fool.com.au/2017/10/03/....l-speculation/
The strong run of the Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX: GXY) share price has continued today.
In afternoon trade the lithium miner’s shares are up 9.5% to $3.00.
Why are its shares higher?
Although there has been no word out of the company today, the AFR is reporting that the lithium miner has penned a deal with Tesla’s battery supplier Panasonic.
According to the report, sources have told the newspaper that Galaxy’s executive team were in Japan two weeks ago to secure the deal. Furthermore, shipping data appears to confirm this and shows product being shipped from its Mt Cattlin operation to Japan.
Such a deal would not come as a surprise. With electric vehicle adoption tipped to grow strongly as governments crack down on pollution, securing lithium carbonate supply is becoming very important for automakers.
Only last week Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) signed a deal with Chinese automaker Great Wall Motor Company for Stage 2 off-take from its flagship Pilgangoora Lithium-Tantalum Project in Western Australia.
And this morning mineral exploration company Avz Minerals Ltd (ASX: AVZ) announced that it is in discussions with Shanghai Greatpower and a number of other parties for a potential investment and off-take opportunities from its Manono Lithium Project.
Should you invest?
While Galaxy is certainly a high risk investment, I believe that its three world-class assets make it one of the best options in the resources sector.
With lithium supply and demand expected to remain tight for the foreseeable future, I believe prices will remain high and put Galaxy in a strong position to produce high levels of free cash flow.
Finally, here's a tech share which I think could profit greatly from the lithium boom.
Why Elon Musk's "secret weapon" was the most shorted share in Australia...
On 9 March, the visionary Tesla co-founder and CEO made a bold $63,000,000 to save a large swath of Australia. But in the process, he accidentally revealed the small Melbourne-based company that allows him to consistently make the impossible possible. At one point, this little understood company was actually the single most heavily shorted share in all of the ASX. Yet oddly enough, nine out of 10 analysts call it a screaming BUY! And that includes Motley Fool Australia.
We just isolated this company as Elon Musk's "secret weapon", and think it's dynamic run (up more than double after initially floating shares just two and a half years ago!) is only getting started. For the full story on this company, as well as how to get invested alongside us today,
[QUOTE=Joshuatree;684786]Just sold LPI for great gains in another runup nearing two previous peaks. If I'm lucky i may buy back if/when it falls away again.[/QUOTE
Well it shot back up again (well before the below ann) quick smart higher then the previous 3 highs, and i missed it.
SUCCESSFUL STAGE 1 PILOT PLANT RESULTS AND PROCESS DIAGRAM
Anyone holding TAW, if not give it a look on hotcopper
Bit of renewed interest in Lithium sector. NMT received speeding ticket yesterday, been bouncing around 30c +/- 1c for a while, closed 36.5c on no news. Will be watching the early trading today across the sector.
meltical thats not really kosher to do that.Better if you provide any info ,links on here and opinion why you think its worthy. Be appreciated by this forum.
Had a look at TAW Digger & Dealers presentation ....very nice ....gutted I didn't look couple weeks ago still looks like it does have some catching up to do with the likes of AJM , GXY.....
Gutted I didn't load up in those NMT shares shasta .....would have done much better than my GXY,RSG trades
Undervalued, significant resource upgrades to come this month, on track to be australia's next Li producer, excellent management, debt free,
just to name a few.
Don't know if its worthy, it's just a heads because it never gets a mention
It'll be up with likes of GXY, AJM, PLS etc in no time
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2017101...4srvg53tvx.pdf
Got a few TAW after I took some nice profits on an overnight MCR trade
Seeing some Mixed chatter on Hotcopper around LIT.
Justified growth or another CRP knockoff?
Tripled my TAW position early today after selling out of AJM position,,, glad I did take a small "Day trade from it" selling @ 38c
TAW-ASX .......Great Buy IMHO
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/c...um-production/
MTC out of the gates strong today on news of Chinese manufacturer taking a stake. This before any drilling results have been realeased. Should be soon so could be a double whammy here. Small market cap, one to watch if your not already in...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWhetWyJm9I
TAW strong BUY from this analyst on SkyBus news
For those with an eye on the future direction of the Lithium/battery boom, while NMT has gone from 30c - and touched 50c recently, this coming quarter should contain at least 1 major update to the market on their various downstream projects.
https://stocknessmonster.com/news/nmt.asx/
Key point - They have secured their own future supply of lithium spodumene for their higher margin downstream projects.
Nice read for the weekend...
Great story TAW is building such a smart MD ..I would not be surprised to see TAW command 1.50 SP later in the new year
Attachment 9356
Have to agree with you JB, the way the management have got this up and running and the speed at which they have done it is amazing.
Mark Calderwood is worth is weight in 'Lithium'
And there is still so much more drilling to do, Mark mentioned they could be doing it for years so the resource is only going to get bigger
one of the best lithium plays
I know a little bit about chemical companies .LYC,ORE for example .But not too much about spodemene rock deposits though I did look at them some time ago before deciding to go with brine recovery company (ORE).LI20 at .5% cut off grade seems quite low. The tantalum peroxide looks interesting. Inherently in the processing with any chemical product startup there tends to be glitches to get to nameplate.The composition of the base material can make a big difference to costs of processing (mica in the material is bad)
https://www.thebalance.com/lithium-production-2340123
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-w...ichael-langfor
Generally looks ok to me ATS but until everything is up and running who knows.Its good they have guaranteed off take provided they can keep costs down
Ditto on the nkp taw swap
I've made my thoughts pretty clear on this subject in the past. The LCE market is not a market but a cartel run by the few downstream battery grade lithium producers. The market for spodumene is opaque and governed by off-take agreements which are linked to the market price of LCE (a very small market in terms of value and tonnages with no spot or secondary futures markets). As the volume of lithium battery sales increase, their prices will fall and so will the price of the raw LCE product. The downstream cartels will still make money as although the price of batteries will fall, the volume of sales will increase, however the spodumene producers whose contract prices are tied to the price of LCE will have their margins squeezed not only by the falling LCE price but also by competition for new spodumene production coming on stream.
Look who is at the helm of a company like PLS. The same guy who steered one of the flash in the pan iron ore miners during the iron price spike days. I've even noticed he is doing deals with his old company to transport DSO LiO2 ore. What's the grade of this stuff (around 1.5%). You are frigging transporting 98.5% waste to China. Not sustainable and I doubt that it will be profitable over any significant time scale. Just more flash in the pan stuff to keep the news flow going and lithium bubble inflated. The cartels love that us silly Australians have capitalised their industry with our speculative money. In the end it will go the same way as the flash in the pan iron ore companies and WA magnetite mines (ie equity investors burnt once again and the inexperienced will buy the top and hold all the way down like they always do). I remember the $1.80 GBG days. Reminds me of the current period with the lithium stocks, investors investing based on unproven blue sky and greed.
God help those invested in the African lithium plays. Remember the hype around Simandou and companies like SDL. Even the successful African iron ore plays from 2010/2011 are all washed up now. But who am I to talk. There are any number of new "experts" who think making money on a bubble (short term boom) is equivalent to knowing something about commodity markets or investing. It's not investment it is pure speculation not unlike the crypto currencies although lithium has more utility. Esh
Those comments are very educational... understanding behaviour is almost as important as understanding the fundamentals of the company.
Any juniors you guys following at the moment?
The only lithium stock I hold is a junior called Lithium Americas (http://lithiumamericas.com/) which is in the process of listing on the NYSE. Currently only OTC. In this instance I followed the money (which is Chinese) and got in early which gave me a nice return so far.
Do we need Lithium powered stocks in the 2018 ASX competition closing very soon sunday?
This may well end the chances of any junior lithium stock that is not already producing without offtake agreements
https://investingnews.com/daily/reso...on-deal-corfo/
depends who you listen to - media or industry insiders
https://twitter.com/AlexMiningGuy/st...54919866417152
Too True this lifted from HC unsure of its origin
A lithium reality check
With global production expanding, will lithium keeping charging?
Summary: SQM, the world’s biggest lithium producer, is set to ramp up output from its operations in Chile. The news has hit the share prices of Australian and other global producers.
Key take-out: Investors in the lithium space will need to watch developments closely, but don’t expect overnight supply changes.
A sell-off in lithium stocks last week was not the end of the boom in battery metals. Rather, it was an overdue correction to an overheated market, which still has a long way to run.
The immediate cause of an almost uniform 10 per cent fall in most lithium-exposed explorers and miners was approval for SQM, the world’s biggest lithium producer, to expand production in Chile.
If SQM was able to quickly produce an extra 70,000 tons of lithium carbonate a year then there might be a genuine reason for concern about the price of the material. Lithium is the basic building block for long-life batteries used in electric cars, tools, and for storing renewable energy.
But, because SQM produces its lithium at a dry salt lake (Salar de Atacama) high in the Andes mountains, the additional material is unlikely to reach the market for at least five years. That’s because it will take that long to finalise planning, approvals, financing and construction.
There are three other reasons to see the SQM expansion approval as a reason for investors to remain interested in lithium:
Electric car demand is accelerating, thanks to a combination of consumer interest, government incentives and falling production costs.
SQM’s expansion had been delayed by political factors in Chile, and with the election of a pro-business president last month the way was cleared. This fact was missed by most investment banks following the lithium sector.
The next phase of the lithium rush will be a more conventional process, because as supply and demand become more closely synchronized the key measures of success will not be tonnes produced but costs and quality.Uncertainty about what happened in Chile last week has led to conflicting advice, with some investment banks seeing it as a major negative event. Others see it as a non-event, because it either
The negatives and positives
Introduces “significant lithium price downside risk” (Morgan Stanley), or
Does not “threaten near-term lithium market conditions” (UBS).Leading Australian lithium producers Orocobre, after an 11 per cent plunge from $7.18 to a low of $6.36 last Friday, and Galaxy Resources, which fell by 10.7 per cent from $3.82 to $3.41, have both reclaimed lost ground. Pilbara Minerals, which is scheduled to start production later this year, lost 8 per cent with a fall from $1 to 92c, has also stabilised.The starting point to understanding what happened last week is to take a deep dive into the politics of Chile, all the way back to the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet of the 1970s and 80s, a time which deeply divided the South American country.Those historical connections mean that SQM struggles when Chile is led by a socialist government, but blossoms when the government takes a right turn, which is what happened last month with the election of Sebastian Pinera – another Chilean billionaire.A looming price squeezeThe only answer at this stage is a tentative yes, there will be room, but only for producers able to survive at prices that are likely to be lower for longer.Lithium, in its carbonate form, had rushed up from $US4000 a tonne as recently as 2014 to peak last year at $US20,000/t, before starting to ease as new supply reached the market dominated by Asian battery makers.The impact of SQMWarning that the lithium price could fall faster than it had previously predicted, Morgan Stanley said a bottom of $US8000/t expected in 2022 could now occur in 2020.“We don’t believe the SQM deal leads to over-capacity,” UBS said. “By the time SQM lifts output by two, three, or four-times, lithium demand will be growing dramatically to absorb new supply.Morgan Stanley, with its less optimistic view of the SQM deal, noted that even as the Chilean company reclaimed its traditional role as the global lithium price setter, it was unlikely to destabilise the market. The bank said that in the past, SQM had behaved: “as a disciplined leader, keeping lithium and iodine prices around the marginal cost of production”.
In effect, SQM’s new material will be needed by battery makers, though for Australian investors the most important factor will be to focus on lithium producers able to keep their costs under control – which is precisely the same for all companies exposed to the commodity cycle.
“Factoring in a five-year ramp-up for (an expansion) of between 50,000-to-70,000 tonnes a year, our initial view is that the new production might achieve nameplate (capacity) in 2022-23, exactly when the lithium supply/demand balance heads into large deficit as electric vehicle penetration rises strongly.”
UBS disagrees. It reckons SQM will only expand output modestly, despite receiving permission for a massive increase in output.
Morgan Stanley, the most worried of the investment banks, said it expected SQM to “aggressively recover market share” lost to new producers such as Australia’s Orocobre, which operates in South America, and the US-based Albemarle, which operates the big Greenbushes mine in Australia with China’s Tianqi.
Over time, the lithium price is likely to follow a similar path to that of iron ore, sliding to a forecast of around $US8000/t – less than half the peak, but double what it was before the boom.
What’s happening in lithium is a rerun of what happened in iron ore, which enjoyed a spectacular rise to more than $US180 a tonne when Chinese demand exceeded supply. It then plunged to $US40/t before recovering, but only after high-cost mines were squeezed out.
The question which investors in lithium stocks should consider is whether there is room in the global lithium market for SQM’s expanded output, because other producers are also boosting production to ride the electric car revolution.
The change of government coincides with the end of a dispute between SQM and Corfo, the development agency of the Chilean Government, probably thanks to a political directive. But Chile’s slow reaction to sharply higher lithium prices has permitted other countries to snatch a slice of the market, especially Australia’s hard-rock miners.
SQM, which has the full name of Socieded Quimica y Minera de Chile, was (and remains) a major producer of lithium and other materials such as iodine and potassium. Its biggest shareholder, in the process of selling its 32 per cent stake, is the Canadian company Potash Corporation. But effective control has remained with Julio Ponce, a billionaire who is also the former son-in-law of General Pinochet.
The politics of lithium
Investors, after the shock of the SQM expansion clearance, have crept back into the Australian lithium sector.
Hope everyone on here has sold their EMH European Metals Holding shares over the last few months. This ship is gonna tank today. Happy to have sold months ago.
https://twitter.com/ResourcesTawana
First oz lithium producer since 2016
http://spcagent.co/tawana/wp-content...3/01964434.pdf
Interesting to see this, I am relatively new to investing, be keen to understand or hear anyones views on this? My interpretation they are just relocating assets towards the proven mining area from less proven areas?
Looks like they are going to do a merger with their joint venture partner and tawana are spinning out their other tenements in order to make the merger more even.
That's my take on it anyway. See what happens
There is also talk that they could be spinning out the other tenements so they don't loose them if there is a takeover by another company (Chinese no doubt). Apparently the vultures are circling
http://spcagent.co/tawana/wp-content...03/1786495.pdf
Just released this morning. Achieving ahead of nameplate targets only 2 weeks in, and 7.03% grade seems to be pretty good, hoping to see this recognised when ASX opens.