i felt the same frustration with cue. cut them loose and into mpo. couldnt be happier!
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i felt the same frustration with cue. cut them loose and into mpo. couldnt be happier!
Projects battle to meet LNG demand
Peter Alford, Seoul From: The Australian November 13, 2009 12:00AM Increase Text Size Decrease Text Size Print Email Share Add to Digg Add to del.icio.us Add to Facebook Add to Kwoff Add to Myspace Add to Newsvine What are these?
KOREA Gas Corp opens its Perth office this week, long after the Japanese and Chinese arrived. But it's another indication of the new-found importance of Australian projects to the world's biggest liquefied natural gas buyer.
Perth-based Woodside Petroleum, the main home-grown operator in Australia's burgeoning LNG industry, already operates a Seoul office and hopes to be doing a lot of new business with KOGAS.
South Korea is the world's second-largest LNG market and the state-owned KOGAS imports 95 per cent of the 27 million tonnes the country burns this year.
But until last month, the Koreans had not signed a long-term supply contract with an Australian project.
That changed last month when KOGAS signed heads-of-agreement for 1.5 million tonnes annually over 15 years from the Chevron-operated Gorgon project, which begins production in 2015.
Another Korean firm, GS Caltex, has signed up for 500,000tpa for up to 20 years, though only a part of that supply will come from Gorgon.
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Until now, the most substantial Australian LNG supply agreement was a 500,000tpa seven-year contract with the Woodside-operated North West Shelf venture; it's called a mid-term contract in the business, although it has already been rolled over once.
There's a theory in the LNG industry that, until now, KOGAS has been uncomfortable about signing long-term deals with non-state companies and currently gets about half its requirements from the Middle East, where its main supplier is Qatar Petroleum.
KOGAS is also unusually reliant on the spot market, buying up to 15 per cent of its requirements there.
By 2015, the Koreans estimate they will need 35mt of LNG annually, an increase in demand of almost 30 per cent in six years, in a global market expected to tighten much faster than new supply grows.
This year alone, Australian LNG projects have finalised agreements covering almost 12 million tonnes, points out Graeme Bethune, chief executive of the EnergyQuest consultancy.
That's about 60 per cent of the country's current annual production, "a huge amount of gas to have been sold in just a few months". In part to reduce South Korea's geographic and market vulnerabilities, President Lee Myung-bak wants to build the share of Australian-sourced LNG to 20-30 per cent, from less than the 2 per cent the Shelf supplies now. "Twenty per cent of that market in 2015 is 7mt, 30 per cent is 10mt," says Sean Rodrigues, Woodside's chief representative in Seoul.
"Gorgon and the current North West Shelf contract is 2.5mt, so the South Koreans are signalling quite directly that they're in the market for another 5mt to 7mt."
But finding that extra volume, particularly for the build-up to 35mt total demand between now and 2015, will be no easy task, particularly from Australia.
North West Shelf's 16.3mtpa production is committed indefinitely, "the sold-out shingle is up", Rodrigues says.
Rodrigues points out, with some relish, the only significant new LNG production is Woodside's 90 per cent-owned Pluto project, with Stage 1, expected to come on-stream in early 2011 at the latest.
There's about 500,000tpa still unsold from Pluto's first LNG production train on the Burrup Peninsula, just south of the Shelf facilities, and Woodside expects strong interest from KOGAS.
But it's the proposed second stage, two identical trains each with designed capacity of 4.8mt, which Rodrigues expects to be the Koreans' main focus. Stage 2 has entered FEED (front-end engineering and design) and, with a final investment decision next year, could be in production by the end of 2013.
But nothing is ever as easy as build it and they will come. For a start, Woodside doesn't yet have sufficient reserves in its Pluto and Xena fields to feed Stage 2; it's going to need third-party supplies from smaller fields nearby, or to prove up more of its own reserves, or both.
Woodside has just made its best offer to nearby operators.
Chevron is also chasing third-party suppliers, and on a much larger scale. Chevron is seeking government permission to scale up Wheatstone from the approved 8mtpa to 25mtpa.
Chevron's own reserves in the area are believed to be only sufficient for the original production target.
However, Rodrigues radiates complete confidence that Pluto Stage 2 will be producing LNG, much of it for Korea, by 2014. Timing is the clincher. He said: "These markets are very time-sensitive ... if the Koreans say they need the gas in 2013-14, they've got to have it then."
jeebers, drilly. I say I am the last person to ask if you want some kind of TA/FA approach.
anyhoo, i know nothing about URA, but today placed an order to sell down half of BUL for the exact reasons you give. There are so many more stocks out there returning at present, better to jump into one of those i say. I wouldnt write BUL off entirely, hence im keeping half. If you want some technical explanation or theory you wont find it with me sorry. there is still some buy pressure there, but someone/people keep entering back in at 22 and drving it down. if I was eternally optimistic i would say it looks like price being capped at present.
PLUS i enjoy your reading the URA express, you cant give that one up!
Its ok there ER, no advice needed.
I think this will turn around soon though, OR, at when one least expects it. The buying will just suddenly start and then back up to 30 it will go.
After today, looks like we got ourselves a nice little DOJI at what seems to be a close to a Low, but at present this stock just seems to be ITCHING to bounce off th 19-20c level.
We have MACD crossover +, Stochastic at botom but still moving sideways. -.
Need a Shot of Volume and a moving average cross over and the stochastic's to turn north.
On a weekly it appears that the sellers are running out of puff, some good news will see the Bulls in this stock come back to life.
Will give it another few days or so to see if we get a bounce or not.
could be the day for the bounce we been looking for drilly!
Could very well be ER, some increasing volume up to 4M+ and up each day would be good to see.
In the meantime, starting to take a whooping on a couple other stocks I hold. :eek:
im laughing, sorry, coz ive been taking it up the pooper on some as well. was feeling like a loser that on all days some of my stocks decided to give up. i finally called time today on tsv with a not too flash loss. have told the wife the missing money is her xmas pressie. hope like christ something fires quickly. she got a racehorse for her birthday (not that she wanted one!) cld be another xmas on the sofa.
Picked some BUL up yesterday at 21c on close.
Today I see they've announced they've drilled their first of 10 holes in 813P. Nice.
Good entry K1.
Although, any entry at these levels will be a good entry providing the news keeps flowing in and the results also keep sounding good.
Nice to see :)
Hi Bermuda,
Had STX and BUL on watch for some time and it feels a lot like when I had BOW and VPE on watch. I backed the wrong horse then :D but what about these two?
STX clearly going for a run and probably on the back of their recent presentation etc.
BUL on the other hand..............
I remember you posting that you were considering going all in to VPEO when BOW was around 25 to 30c. Bet youre glad you didnt.
Which of these two would be your No1 pick if you were only going for one of them? :D
Hi Strat,
Yes you are right. I am learning all the time. I ended up with the same volume of BOW and VPEO. Whic means I have to stump up a bit to exercise VPEO in January next year. Not to worry. VPE wll finally perform in 2010. Already it has a potential value of $1.58 and it is only trading at 35 cents now. And this potential will be increased by the further 20% aquisition of the Growler/Snatcher field from British Gas. $1.12 of the above figure is the CSG value and this has just been 'confirmed' with the recent aquisition of 3.75% of PL574 off BOW. Off course the current programme by VPE/British Gas needs to actually prove up /certify the gas.
But, turning to STX and BUL.
I already have 500k of STX which I put into a trust not to be opened until 2012. Read the latest STX presentation and you will understand why. I tried to buy 1 million more but my orders at 23 cents got left behind. Not to worry I am now buying into another stock that could do even better.
BUL is a magnificent story provided PL813 comes in. They are drilling it at the moment.They reckon it has the same resource potential as the Surat Basin. The only reason no one touched it before was due to its remote access but pipelines are being planned as we speak. BUL have Chartwell Corporation as a large domestic customer/shareholder ( dont have to build a power station ) and KOGAS as an export customer/shareholder. They have a very savvy Board and management team. Chartwell bought in at 40 cents last year but the stock got smacked by that Opes fiasco. When that flaky ANZ crowd get tipped out we will have some real action. Happy to hold 1.1m.
Strat, If you want some real action have a look at TEXOB. Cheers
I upped my stake yesterday at 21.5c.
See no reason to sell yet, just sit back and wait for drilling results to come in.
ANZ being flushed out would be a bonus
Hi folks,
Deja Vu
Is today's ann another version of the same version from 2 weeks ago?
Why in the world do these guys do this, are they running out of things to say? Shouldn't think so as there apparently is plenty drilling going on and results expected. (so I thought).
This stock is just itchy for a bounce.
Problem is, Buyers (volume) want the sellers to dump down to 18c.
Other Problem is, Sellers just DO NOT want to go there.
IMO, we have already been to 20c recently so why doesn't somebody out there just do a quick dump and touch 18c so then Technically we can get on with what and where we are supposed to go with this :p :D :rolleyes:
Anybody got any FA comments on this one, like what and when is the next Wow factor due on this one approx?
Your probably pretty much right there Trackers,
People lose interest, wait and watch (in this case watch it fall) because if the news just ain't there, then there is no point in being in really is there.
I had to sell half mine today to cover on another trade I done yesterday so something had to go, or half of something. So I guess Im now half on the sidelines too until something gives.
I took another small position in LBY which also has JVs with both CNX and CGV. I also noticed a bit of a spark across a few stocks due to a CNX announcement out today re-CHILE venture with 30% or something.
As soon as one does something, the others can and will follow. And if there is enough news the whole Sector can light up and start to give back some gains.
This is a key drill. Not the end of the world if it is a failure but important all the same.
****house! left an order for sale of bul sitting forgotten and unloved. got triggered this arvo! and to think, only yesterday SKOL was saying how BUL was on its last legs. skol will not be getting arrested for being awesome soon! oh well, shld be aboe to hop back into this, at least we know its got legs!
Excellent ANN,
Wow, Im not much of GAS buff but I sure can read between the lines on this one.
Glad Im still holding some, but feel like a real dilly waggy for selling some of this off to cover for another Woofer, sheez, but ahh well, thats life ;)
Its a pitty this isnt a HC pet stock for the rampers, otherwise with this news like we have just had, this stock would be sitting over 40 cents by now.
25c starting to get tested,
Plenty of cash on the sidelines, I wonder if somebody with alot of cash out there is ready to start believing.
A you know I have been waiting patiently for some news on Kanaka 1 in the big 813 permit. I have just come in from trimming the hedge ( with my battery operated trimmer! ) and saw that BUL had shot to 24.5 cents on news of a drilling update. Far out , I thought this news was to be from 813...it isnt!!! It is from 814...29 metres of 'shallow ' coal and gas at 21 cubic metres/tonnes. That is an excellent world class result and we still have 813 to look forward to.
We are going to be hearing a lot more about BLUE ENERGY. If only we could get rid of the ANZ/OPES fisco.
I totally agree Bermuda, was a little weary previously with the ANZ and their ways.
Need to keep these results coming and technically Punch through 26c to really start a rally.
Like a few other stocks, a little worrying at the moment with a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. I wonder how things will play out tomorrow but there is a big seller whom is prepared to throw a mass at 25c by the looks of it.
Well I hope this so called best is yet to come type news is good enough to create a strong enough run to break the 25-26c barrier.
This stock is becoming technically challenged atm.
I guess the overall markets is also playing its toll in lubricating the price of many stocks.
Here we go, now whats this Ann all about then folks.
Experts, comments please~!
BUL estimated 15TCF based on thickness of 2.5^3/tonne... and results have come in over 3?
adding to that, this drill has similar shows to one 70km away?
just need a pipeline partner or two and we're off to the races...
yep, and we still cant traction. its tough going at the moment huh? still i guess it means bul looking the goods and confidence ot hang in or add a few.
Yeah its a tough market at the moment... my honest thoughts are that someone wants out and is doing a gradual sell down of their holding... If thats the case, no dramas...
I wouldn't give up hope yet though, the ann. was only published shortly before close on a pretty gloomy day.
if it was emphatic, it wouldn't matter when it was released.
A long way to go for BUL.
Just look at MEL RE: CSG. The have 2P and 3P in spades, yet it took a conventional gas find to get the SP moving because the CSG is miles away from an export hub.
BUL will need to stitch up some pipeline deals and until that happens, I don't think the amount of gas in place matters all that much.
TBE,
You are right. There is a long way to go for BUL. This is a very good story. A long story but a very good story.
The pipeline studies have already commenced. BUL and Kogas wouldn' be up there proving up this huge resource unless they knew how to get it to the market. I am just going to sit back and relax and watch it unfold. Kogas is a very big player wanting significant gas to feed their Korean market.
Actually, a great story Bermuda
Just a total pitty that its a technical basket case ATM.
Heading fast, or real fast like its just dying to bounce off 20c or so again.
Only problem is, everytime it does a run up it gets slammed back down because you have the capper at 25c whom seems to have plenty of stock and keep repeating the process. Its probably them buying at 20c
Seems all the CSG sector is getting slammed (again)
chart! well an attempt at one..http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/4328/bulx.png
Good one there Trackers. Hey what prog you using there mate?
Hey, I see you dont have a stack of indicators in there.
When I am on the run, I use a net quote chart but I think it runs a day late or hour late or something, but it shows quite a few technicals, plus I just use whatever defaults are on there.
If you go to here: http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=BUL
Just replace the BUL part with any other Code you want and hit enter, or you can just add the code on the search box on the left.
Other examples:
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=NGE
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=FXR
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=URA
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=PLV
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=VPE
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=AQA
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=SLR
I think you get the drift, but if anybody else fancies a quick chart with a quick detaill, that is Real fast and a No Fud around chart, IMO :)
There you have it, when your on the run book market in your external mail links section :)
So, with todays news, can any of you FA guys offer some interpretation to the build up of what is actually happening with BUL???
i wonder what astroturf man makes of this stock? got a sneaky feeling bul about to go for a little run. happy new year my peeps.
Oh please ER, lets not ask that.
I mean, I would never wish to offend yogi, but where one posts about a stock that gives it Expectation only to watch the stock sink, what honestly does that tell you?
Yogi is a fine chap (happy spirit) and that is great but when it comes to giving advice or luck I personally would not wait for the stars to lineup to buy a stock (IMO).
And when it comes to buying a stock, and say this stock, well let the fundamentals be in the stocks favour, Look at some of the indicators. An obvious place to start would be by watching this stock bounce too and Fro off the Bollinger Bands, thrown in a couple of indicators in favour and you have your self a buy. You can then sell it for a profit in the short term or choose to hold it long.
But whatever you do, don't buy it because the tide is high, the moon is full and Jupiter is lined up with Ur-anus. :rolleyes:
thank you my man drilly. im already knee deep in bul so i was merely pondering astoturf man as i went on to make a completely baseless prediction about how one thought this was due to run, based solely on perception. now i wish big phaddy could somehow build that indicator into his system. did you know that perception is just one of the man y senses outside of the 5 thrown about? without wishing to sound like ive drunk all nana's sherry, sometimes a gut feeling can bring about remarkable things. anyhoo, rambling for the sake of rambling. off to the tab to back the pakis again!
and..whats up with all the small buys at 22.5 today. this just a recent sample????
22.5 1,155 12:09
22.5 1,175 12:04
22.5 1,195 12:01
22.5 1,215 11:59
22.5 1,236 11:57
22.5 1,256 11:56
is it a bot accumulating under radar?
wait for it......
wait there......getting closer......
lol ER, mate what kind of coffee do you drink.
I see some gains coming but if it gets to 25c the big bad seller dude comes out and stuffs the basket ball down from all the buyers. You wait and see when it hits 25c as that is the mark when they start to defend.
But, who knows, truth is, anything could happen with the right news and the sector heating up.
hey drilly, nice to see hear from you. happy new year big fella!
god came and told me to go nuts on bul. so i did. sold two unraced horses to do so. and now i am just passing on what he is saying to me. and at the mo it is wait there ala steve fleming. i will get rid of the 25 chap, boots and all. stay in touch, if i go quiet i am incarcerated. but i will be back!
whops. now we are. tricky thing this divine vessel stuff. i will keep you posted on my next visit from the big man
since my last sermon ye faithful parish have been awfully quiet in the face of a strong run. am i preaching to the converted or perverted???? backed a good winner yesterday paid over 20.00. horse called dr who! how cld it not win
Nice one evilroy, great name for a horse.. dunno about the others but I'm staying put.
Strong open at 25c today, selling side thinning out a wee bit more(it needed to). I'll think about selling when the price hits 29c.
Looking forward to some more 813/814 results in the near future
Can anybody tell me, will this stock "ever" actually get from point A to B without actually trading side for years?
I know patience is the thing that will enable shareholders to benefit in due time, but this has got to be the most boring stock to be holding over time watching it going sideways.
To me this seems like a stock to just put it down and come and visit 4 months later and buy it for a penny less or two cents more..:rolleyes: :eek: :p
On the 15th of Jan there was a drilling update.
It mentions that ATP813P Stainburn Downs1 is expected to spud early next week, But that this week so should the news be today or tomorrow regarding this?
So if so then, what is going to happen when it spuds?
Im not much of a gas/oil buff so dont know whats happening, but still curious to know why nothing much is happening with this stock.
Are we actually waiting for the physical pipeline from Gladstone Port to the tenements ever to be connected? or does this drilling absolutely seem to count for nothing here. Please enlighten me someone.
BUL or WCL?
BUL now has the esteemed position of being the worst stock I ever brought in 6 years of trading :)
Firmly lodged in the bottom draw
Ahh that sucks :( Yeah its tricky business with those penny dreadfuls, small movements can make you a lot, or lose you a lot.
It was a bad call on my behalf, I recommended that stock as a goody and it turned into a complete dog. The unfortunate result with Warro3 I could handle, but the huge negative movement before the announcement then complete silence from the coy since was completely average.. Took my own advice and got out at near the end of '09, and even though the project might be ok, and risk/reward is pretty decent, dunno if I'd roll with the coy and its mgmt again.
Yep, although as frustrating as holding BUL is, I traded them on a few occasion and got some money off the table at the 24ish mark. Otherwise, I would have share your dissapointment.
everyone very quiet today. im picking announcement coming soon re bul. new order for 300k placed at 17.5.
Nothing wrong with BUL. It has all the ingredients to perform. BUL is like a good book. Trouble is, it has many chapters and we are only into the 3rd chapter of a 10 chapter book. We should get a bit of excitement when the first FID for Gadstone is announced ( probably May 2010 ).
BLUE ENERGY
1.Great acreage including Galilee.
2.Top Shareholders...Stanwell Corp and Kogas
3.Good management
4. Largely unknown.
Negatives
1.Those ANZ/Opes guys. One day we will get rid of them.
Just looked at price. Up one cent to 18 cents on reasonable volume on a down day. Have no fear...the value is there.
New announcement out by BUL - it doesn't look like Kogas are going anywhere but have long term plans with BUL
Sorry i don't know how to put in the link
Here's the link
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=484124
Plenty of volume today Super B, but still a bit of a wall to get through at 20c.
I was just having a look at KOGAS and they're pretty big hitters. Great endorsement for BUL.
I'll pick up some more tomorrow and get my 24.5c average down.
I can't work out whether they are talking about exporting LNG or producing for domestic consumption. What do you think bermuda?
There was a lot of guff in that annoucement.
Looks like both are a possibility Corporate. They talk about a "green highway" for Aussie, and also about utilising KOGAS's experience and expertise in the LNG /CNG sector to "assist Australia", but of course they're also the leading importer of LNG in the world, so they're a great partner either way.
Hi Serpie,
good to hear from you.
This Blue is going to surprise a few. I have been waiting for them to confirm their interests following official 814 certification.
This latest news just about confirms that BUL have a MAJOR partner in BUL. Perhaps tomorrow the market might appreciate it. Perhaps later. Anyway, 814 is exceeding expectations.
The next six months is going to be jammed packed with CSG news.
See you at the Lone Ranger next time.Cheers
I hold and want more, but in addition to conventional development, this talk about 'green highway' suggests converting Aust transport mentality from diesel/petrol to CNG/LPG tanks. Started in NZ in the 70-80s but the problem is the infrastructure at every petrol station, and then getting people to want to change
...as hard as going into politics
wow! check out the buy depth this morning. must be an announcement coming??????
Buy recommendation in the Aussie Small Cap Investor released late yesterday.
That tip sheet and diggers and dillers usually gets things running for a while.
I suspect it'll go for a bit of a run, then die back down- most CSG is on the up at the moment though, so could last a wee while. I don't think we'll see a proper re-rating till either ANZ gets out (won't happen till mid-year at least, if it does at all), or they book some reserves in 814P (a fair bit of drilling to do before this will happen, so also a wee way off).
Hey K1, remember the dredded 25c Alias capper.
It will be interesting to see right after open if they appear again or not.
Think I may even participate in this one today although dont like the sellers at 22c with the 666 biz :P
Been away fishing for a few days, and come home to a pleasant surprise of a nice lift, but on the other hand a bit disappointed, as my order for another 100k at 20c only got just over 10k of them filled! Happy with the nearly 200k I bought about 10 days ago though.
Agree with K1 that it is likely to die back down though, especially after a run this hard. Might be time to lock in some profit.
So, how far could this get smashed down today,with the DOW last night and the expected extension of KOGAS' farmin rights?
Added to my position at 13. Previous drilling announcements on track .
Matty,
The news wasn't so bad after all. Kogas are still interested and I can understand the extension in light of the flood delays and that ridiculous Rudd proposal. Thank goodness sanity prevailed on that score and Rudd was sent to the sin bin. What a complete dipstick. As bad as Greenspan and Bush.
Let's hope the reserves get a green tick. Blue sure has a huge acreage. I think we will have to wait until the first FID gets ticked off before the CSG torch get lit again. What a day that will be.
Bermuda, I tried to send you a PM today re Blue, but your mailbox is full....
Anyway, kind of what I had expected to hear, although an 8 month extension is quite some time. Pleased to see it didn't get smashed down too much, and there seems to be a bit of buying support at 13.5. Although with the DOW futures pointing to another smashing there tonight, tomorrow could be another grim day.
Matty,
Just got back from a cruise around Onassis's private island. Far out. The Dow will continue to get smashed. I have been reading so many books about the demise of the USA. They have had it too good for too long at $5-$20 per barrel. Oil at $70 is killing them especially when you are importing 2 thirds. What we need is low cost CSG. They are hoping shale gas can get them out of the hole they are in but the EPA has now stepped in.
Blue have the acreage and one day it will get proved up and put into production. But these things sure take time. But we are talking multiples.
anyone been watching bul for re-entry? colin, are we ovrsold yet?
Hi Roy.
I am and if you are referring to RSI the answer to your question is not yet. That said the RSI is only one indicator and alone isnt a buy signal. Oversold doesnt mean buy either. A stock can become oversold ( a TA term ) for good reason and can stay that way for a good length of time.
keep your eye on which side of 12c it ends up at over the next few days. My guess is it will go lower
Ive been on the side lines for a while now Roy. Mostly got out as indicated on the last chart I posted on the All Ords thread. Im lookin for re entry on many stocks but I cant see any yet. Have held CUE all the way through but entry price always has a bearing on how I approach a trade and whether I let it ride or not.
Regarding re entry into BUL.
A cent or two can make a huge difference to the bottom line at these prices. Also better to pay 14c on the way back up than 12c on the way down I reckon. Who knows? Next week that might read "better to pay 10c on the way back up than 8c on the way down"
horse racing!
Heres a few pics for ya
Notice that BUL has recently broken below a 9 year upward trendline :scared:
Hi Bermuda and other BUL followers
Is there anything coming up for BUL that could turn it around in the next few months???
Seems to have bottomed at 12c for now
Hi Strat,
BUL are quietly proceeding to improve their position. The sp has got whacked mostly due to the deferment of Kogas taking up their option on 814. And the Rudd tax was a real stiffener. The floods didn't help either and now this election and Green talk has meant that BUL has drifted down like a lot of others.
We have the following to look forward to
1. A definitive election result
2. A Green pass on Coal Seam Gas
3. The world's first CSG-LNG plant being ticked off at Gladstone.
4. Continued success at 814. Things are going very well here.
5. Kogas take up 814 in February next year
A bit of M&A would help too.
Thanks Bermuda. Will be keeping an eye on this one