ah yeh I should have disclosed. I do have a small holding , purchased recently at $2:30
very low liquidity, so have to stay small.
T/O is likely outcome imo - by one of those big boys for whom taking this out will be chump change
Printable View
ah yeh I should have disclosed. I do have a small holding , purchased recently at $2:30
very low liquidity, so have to stay small.
T/O is likely outcome imo - by one of those big boys for whom taking this out will be chump change
Hey I just thought I'd cheer up my day by highlighting how this has moved since I highlighted a bullish pattern very early this month (5th) , and reiterated my view on the 19th allowing others to partake.
Green again today and am now sitting on +37c (16%) this month.
Attachment 9441
Absolutely - cheer is always good ;);
I agree - the indicators look better, though I am not sure about the reasons (no price sensitive announcement). SP now above MA50, MA100 and MA200 (and there even was a wee Golden Cross).
On the other hand - volumes are nothing out of the ordinary - and RSI looks at current pretty overcooked. Still - may well be that it found its bottom late December / early January. Or maybe not. This is the risk with one trick ponies ... they might do really well, but often they don't.
Maybe I am just negatively biased by some other pharmaceutical / medical NZ stocks: Genesis Research (for people with long memories) and PEB. Both had as well a great story and unlimited potential, but look where they ended up. So far I am not sure whether AFT will be different, but they well may be.
The low liquidity probably doesn't help and could be a cause of the fast jumps and falls - but as a long term holder, I am unconcerned about this.
The underlying business is pretty good, previously profitable (for many years), good market position, great products (most important thing in my view), earning most of their income offshore.
AFT will be one to watch that is for sure, wouldn't be too surprising to see it become an NZX 50 company and pay a dividend within a few years.
Just as things started to get exciting... down we go again
share price wise anyway
Still surprised?
But then, volume is quite low and charts don't give a meaningful direction. Looks like AFT is sort of scratching down the bottom of the barrel.
Obviously - it can go both ways from here depending on their market fortunes. The only other thing I remember about AFT is that their CEO did't came across as a strong seller when I heard him speaking at the last NZSA conference, and not being a strong salesman might be a handicap in this business.
Anyway, time will tell.
Would be nice to see a NZ pharma company succeeding ...
wow righteous much
I'm not surprised a little company like this gets hit by a large correction in the over all market.
Personally I think the buy signal was truly triggered and the stop hasnt been hit so its wait and let the faith rebuild.
(Discl, holding a trvial quantity just for the ride)
I was unaware that their flagship product, Maxigesic is also now aviailable in an intravenous form, significant as it could be utilsed in hospital as part of routine, if appropriate, pain managaemt. Thsi compnay will continue its development, only concern that it becomes a takeover target
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315095
Yet more robust news, ticking (or selling should I say) more and more boxes by the day.
Share price will still defy the odds and therefore probably go down further.
You the cynic t_j ...good timing this announcement eh in light of where the share price is
Probably wouldn't have said anything if the share price was $3 or more ....they would have waited ofr more than 1 weeks data to confirm this good news ...wouldn't they?
Oh dear ... I didn't realize that their highly tooted innovative painkiller Maxigesic is nothing but a combination of Ibuprofen and Paracetamol ... Silly me thought that they actually did develop some pain medication ;);
Nothing new about that - doctors recommend (and prescribe) this combination of paracetamol and Ibuprofen already for a long time in case of persistent pain. No need for Maxigesic something.Quote:
The codeine-free painkiller Maxigesic is now the largest selling Paracetamol-Ibuprofen combination painkiller in Australian pharmacies.
Where is AFT's moat?
They get the outsourced manufacturer to put both ingredients into one pill. Clever aye. No one else will be able to do that!
They do have a patent so there is some form of moat:
https://www.aftpharm.com/innovation/...-study-page-2/Quote:
A patent was subsequently grated for Maxigesic in New Zealand, and via the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) system, a large number of additional countries also.
Well been pretty boarding lately with AFT, but next week Wednesday we'll see full year results, which should show some nice growth.
What is for sure is that we probably can't get too excited as AFT are still building up to something much bigger, better and more valuable than its current state... we may even see a profit this FY - which would be an added bonus because I'm happy if it has to wait another year.
The founder holds an overwhelming majority of shares and seems to have no intention on 'letting go' until he has done alot more bigly things... short term boredom, long term excitement some say
Nobody praising the annual results? Let me guess, they must have been pretty disappointing. Lower revenue growth, higher loss than expected and NZ revenue already shrinking. And now we are not so sure anymore whether the next FY will turn cash positive. I note that our 4-traders duty analyst (Edison? - they seem to be the only ones looking into this stock) downgraded from outperform to hold and put the target price down to $2.86. I'd love to see on what base they justify this target price - can't be the published CAGR and EPS predictions (which are consistent with the published Edison report).
Even if I use these predictions does AFT still look expensive at the current SP of $2.42. Loss making startup with slowly growing revenue (and disappointing even modest market expectations). Forward PE of 50 (if you believe the optimistic scenario) and a revenue CAGR of 18 (same caveat). A share price around $1.50 would look fairer priced - but again, only if one believes the optimistic predictions ;);
No wonder the downtrend stays intact.
Looks a bit like PEB to me - only that AFT have not even a cutting edge medical product ...
Actually I thought they were great - due to the lack of interest on here, and in the market (very illiquid), didn't see the point in mentioning highlights, like gross profit up 31% and a profit almost certain in FY19 - not that this would be their first profit of course, they have been very profitable in the past. This is far from a "loss making start up". I thought I was looking at Ryman when I saw the 18 years of consecutive revenue growth on page 3 - from $1m in 2000 to over $80m this year - and probably around $100m next year. Come 2021 - some analyst (who has a price target of $2.86 on it) reckons it will be in excess of $150m, with a PE of around 10 (at current share price). For a company with growth around 20%, year on year for the past 21 consecutive years, that sounds cheap to me... Mr Market still not convinced, and so need another few years of delivering - but going off that track record, I am pretty confident. Oh and its not Edison, their price target is $4 something.
So what's holding it back? Track record? Incompetent management? Lack of growth opportunities to sustain impressive growth? Another capital raising? Hmm, I doubt they will need more capital, but perhaps Mr Market isn't too sure... what I do believe, after being a holder since IPO, is that AFT listed too early (jokes on me for participating in the IPO lol). The big holders (being Hartley and CRP, who control over 88% of the shares), have shown absolutely no interest in selling - so the big (potential) buyers (aka insto's) have shown no interest in buying - hence nothing really happens, and when it does happen it is pretty jerky and seems to revert to around $2.50 (AFT is up over 5% in the past 52 so the NZX 50 website tells me).
Both Hartley and CRP probably hold as they believe they can take the company even further, and don't want to be a takeover target before 'they are ready' - fair enough, it is probably trading at a price way under what they think it is worth given a few more years (interesting to see management not only anticipating in the SPP a year ago, but also buying even more on market).
It would seem, with an impressive track record (and many, many more opportunities to come - just read the annual report, lots of 'gems' in there) - it is only a matter of when, rather than if (as it is with PEB), the profits start to roll (back) in, and the share price has to rise, but until the company can 'prove it', and until someone decided to let liquidity open up a bit more, I can't see how the share price will climb much over the coming year, maybe 2, maybe even 3 years... but after that - this is probably one you don't want to miss (and it probably isn't going to get much lower than where it is now).
Another 63 shareholders, +7.2%, on the register so at least a few more people seem interested
Insulting for whom?
I guess they are for a so called growth company quite slow growing. OHE anyone?
They are on the international scene just another minuscule "me-too" with no moat ... and their praised differentiation is just a mix of two well known and generic pain killers where the patents did run out a long time ago. Any doctor can prescribe medication with the same effect but without using their product (and they do ...).
Where do you see their competitive advantage? What can they do better than the big boys in Europe and the US or the cheap boys in India?
And sure - board and management holding plenty of shares can be a good sign, but it can be as well a sign of some rich and incompetent celebrities deciding to run their own and other shareholders money into the ground. Look at the fortunes of OHE. Look at CBL ...
I am not saying that AFT will go the same path, but it must be legitimate to ask what's different ...
Holding lots of shares does not mean that the people holding them are clued up or capable to run a successful company ...
Ah yes ... and you might be not quite up to date on Edison's research ... while they still use positive sounding words (I guess they are paid for that, aren't they) - predictions of growth and revenue did shrink somewhat since the last result presentation ...
https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch...harmaceuticals
I don't have their 12 month target, but given that they recently downrated earnings and revenue expectations would it make sense if they down rated the forecast SP as well.
As well - do you know any other research company looking at AFT? There is only one analyst in 4-traders and I am pretty sure it is Edison.
But hey, there are good evolutionary reasons for the endowment effect. Just a pity we can't get rid of it when dealing with stocks ;); Anyway - I am sure we will review the performance of this company from time to time ... highly educational - looking forward to that :);
just wanted to say that I bought some AFT eye drops the other week. I didnt know they made those as well. They were very cost effective at a third the price of the big pharma options, and just as good as far as eye can tell.
re: THE MOAT - you could say its the branding. They're building that brand - just like ATM , and other companies with faux moats.
Is Coca-Cola a moat?
Yes - it has a patent on the exact formula
No- anyone can make fizzy cola and sell it in a bottle.
Combining two pills into one is simply more convenient for everybody and so will inevitably be the path of least resistance.
Also I think AFT is manufacturing in India, so has a low cost base.
Now that I'm watching occasional broadcast TV (I never used to) I seen some adverts of theirs on the tele. I wasnt that impressed but then I dont really appreciate those ads like eg Michael Hill (Jeweller), or that Chinese guy with the big teeth.
Oh and dont forget they have new regions coming on stream, as well as (maybe) lower legal costs in the order of a mill or two.
btw - I did review the result and was pretty good with it. I didnt post, which is why W69 has 20k and I only have a few
The 'moat' concept is well explained above by peat, and yes (I believe) the manufacturing is of low cost it is largely, if not entirely, outsourced.
Lets have a look at some of those other companies you've mentioned (it is of interest)
- CBL: Although I don't really know what exactly went on (as it seemed hard to understand things), perhaps some 'creative accounting' (or at least questionable accounting, and arguably a questionable product) from a company that seemed to do so well yet need capital pretty much annually - even PEB, despite having been listed for a much longer time, on average goes quite a bit more than a year without a cap raising... who would have thought PEB would outlast CBL and WYN!
- OHE: Actually had consecutive revenue declines the past 2 years as well as burning through ALOT of cash while not really being able to deliver (at least since it has been listed) - big lumpy contracts, with arguably big lumpy costs as well
- WYN: Revenue flat for 3 years, while raising capital often less than a year after the last capital raise - big lumpy contracts, with arguably big lumpy costs as well
- PEB: Highly scalable model, very good product, but seems to burn through far more cash, year after year, than it can gain in revenue - and importantly, revenue growth has not been fast enough to 'catch up'... very much a watch this space (for, increasingly, all the wrong reasons...)
- XRO: highly scalable model, very good product (by the way, people said Xero, with what was no more than a "website" had zero moat as well, please pardon the pun), was criticized for years for their cash burn but have really turned it around - as has their share price - ultimately, they delivered.
- AFT? well highly scalable model as well, very good products, 18 years of non stop revenue growth (several, if not most, of those with profit)... but nearly 90% of the shares currently on issue are basically 'locked up' resulting in not a single insto being interested nor on board - no wonder nobody can get excited and start pumping them up with "research reports"!
So really there is ALOT different with AFT compared to the top 4 companies discussed above - credible product, credible management, credible (and consistent) revenue growth... and 9 in 10 shares aren't for sale
And Edison's research, as at 28 March 2018, was for $4.73 per share - so it ain't them (I don't think concensus estimates counts paid research such as edison - I would be very interested to see who else is covering it and their view with the $2.83 target price)
They (then) had the following predictions: 80.6m operating revenue for FY18 (vs 80.1m actual) and 12.5m loss for FY18 (vs 12.7m actual). In FY19 they had 98m operating revenue and a 0.5m loss - I reckon they will beat at least 1 of those 2... apparently they were going to update their research after results so will have to check back soon... then again who cares - they are waay out by nearly 100% with their $4.73 valuation per share clearly!
I do look forward to reviewing it from time to time as well ;)
UPDATE: I note Edison said this in their post FY18 results: "We are increasing our valuation to NZ$478m or NZ$4.91 per share from NZ$460m or NZ$4.73 per share, mainly due to increased expectations for Australian revenues and rolling forward our NPV. This was partly mitigated by slight reductions to expectations for New Zealand and RoW and a higher net debt balance. Our fundamental assumptions such as terminal growth and terminal EBIT margin remain unchanged. We expect to update our valuation following additional information regarding the status of Maxigesic launches." - that estimate at $2.8 something is not from edison that is for sure! They also expect AFT to make a $1m profit FY19 before making a near $11m in FY20 and bigly and better in FY21 - I'm thinking $20m+
Interesting ... so there must be somebody else out there using the same revenue and profit forecasts like Edison and coming up with a lower value ... any of the AFT holders know about that analyst / researcher?
Anyway - both forecasts don't make a lot of sense in my view, but if your info about the Edison forecast is right, than they are clearly delusional vs just unrealistically optimistic ;);.
Never mind - I don't see AFT in the WYN or PEB category (they clearly do sell stuff ...), but I don't see them in the stellar growth category either. Not sure when they made money (as you say), this must have been ages ago. My records go 5 years back and the best of these years was 2013 with a "black" ZERO as a result, all other years they reported losses. 2 dear 4 me. But time will tell.
I would suggest anyone determined / keen to invest in this sector on the NZX / ASX would be far better off investing in CSL even at its current overvalued shareprice. I think you’d be far better served by a company with a great pipeline of new therapies and drugs that is making a solid, consistent profit with good ROE.
Though I’ve seen several ads on TV for Maxigesic I see it as having very little marginal benefit and basically zero economic moat.
I could be wrong, just my opinion.
AFT is very likely to do better this year. Sales will keep growing and the expenses will come down (R&D and corporate expenses). They might even make a profit. Cash balance has stopped dropping according to the management (good sign always) and they wont need to take anymore debt.
Discl- holding from ipo
Operating cash outflows:
1H17: 10.3m, 2H17: 8.7m
1H18: 7.7m, 2H18: 3.2m
There is no denying that operating cash outflows are certainly reducing rapidly!
Probably operating cash flow positive come end of FY19 + a profit, PE of 10 come 2021?
Just don't tell Mr Market, it still thinkgs this is a WYN-like company!
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...680/283829.pdf
Slide 21 is probably why it was marked as price sensitive.
From some quick math, FY23 AFT may have $300m in annual revenues (up from $80m) at current, and I reckon generating around $50m NPAT, conservatively speaking - that would make the current share price of $2.30 extremely cheap - a PE of less than 5 for a company that has consistently grown top line well into the double digits, and has most of those times, been profitable.
I'm looking forward to the profit announcement in FY19 - the first as a listed company.
Wow 2 decades of revenue growth, never a down year since starting up with $50k capital in a taka garage (almost like a ryman of the NZ pharmaceuticals industry, but Mr Market clearly doesn't see it that way - share price down today).
Chances are FY18 is the last time AFT will make a loss, ever... dare I say it.
FY23 ish is probably when the founder and CRG will reduce their holdings (CRG perhaps a bit sooner) - then we'll see all the bullish reports come out from analysts. Until then, while revenues will continue to shoot north, share price will probably continue to go sideways simply due to the lack of liquidity. ASX listing doesn't seemed to have helped much either.
Rest of the meeting was top notch stuff as well.
Disclosure: I'll be trying to buy some more.
Random pharmacy in Qld tells me Maxigesic selling very well
i liked the Chairmans address, haven’t looked at the slideshow yet,( operating from my phone )
Couldn't help but top up today - just a matter of time before this really takes off.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322575
Not the only one buying recently... no surprises, probably ain't going to get any cheaper some say
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324594
Not surprising to see AFT have made another step in the right direction, costs of such agreements will obviously negatively impact FY19, but no doubt bigly gains in revenue profit etc in FY20 (must be, as unlike other similar announcements, this one is marked price sensitive).
1H19 result announcement 2 months away - operating cash flows probably neutral with a return to profit on track for FY19.
A question of when, not if, the 'fair market value' of AFT is realized
And the fair market value is far in excess of what the shares closed at right now - $2.20, the founder and CEO probably won't be selling for less than $5
TJ — Suppose you see this as a stunning result
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...185/291006.pdf
Another half year passes .....not much top line growth ....still not profitable ....significant cash burn ......debt up and asking for more.
Good part they reckon second half might just be better than first half ..alwaysvthe optimist
I would like to but I find it hard to get enthused.
Cash balance improving ...yes, but by borrowing more
Cash burn was $7.2m
Nobody likes your AFT t_j .... be below 2 bucks soon
I keep watching ....maybe one day it will deliver
Not in my portfolio. The IP protective moat is not great and IMHO it is too linked to Hartley Atkinson and his family. He needs to delegate and let others play a major role. (any CEO who sells himself in TV advertising is a worry.) GLH.
...and Michael Hill was not exactly a male model and he managed to promote his company successfully
Yeh I have some faith in AFT as a long term kind of risky investment and have a small holding. They are building up licensing in many countries which takes time and they have cheap production methods. Agreed, it is not doing too well at present with price or liquidity but as I said its a long term view.
Looking at the chart it looks like a 18 month long descending wedge but Bulkowski tells me they should only be a few months long at most so maybe its just a boring old downtrend.
Attachment 10317
yeah I'm maybe being a tab unkind with the advertising reference.....
My rationale comes from years of experience in advertising in which I've seen many instances of good campaigns for a product being ruined by a CEO's ego who wants to see their face made famous. Easy money for an ad agency to cave to such pressure, but in the end it seldom builds a good brand.
You say M. Hill campaign worked for them. Yes maybe, but only for a while. Once the CEO steps down, the personality is lost. And where is Remington these days?
GLH.
Michael Hill’s face on TV didn’t sell many shoes
AFT is certainly boring from a share market point of view (not so much in terms of what they are actually doing/developing), they don't really announce much so hard to get all excited about a pending bigly game changing announcement.
Speaking of chemist warehouse, it is semi to do with AFT in the way they are doing wonders for AFT (a key driver in aussie sales) - on the front page of every 6 or 8 ish page pamflet I have received in the mail (about 3 of them in the past month I think), maxigesic has been right in the middle, front and centre. AFT's crystaderm is also usually somewhere in there as well I think.
They gonna need to say something, ideally positive, as the share price is slipping away... hard to believe a year ago the shares were trading at $2.40... fundamentally, nothing has changed (has it?)... ah well, back to profit pretty soon, dividends hopefully under 2 years away as well.
They are filing Maxigesic Rapid with the FDA in USA , sounds promising. But yeh pharmaceutical stuff has a bit of lag ....
I have been looking around for prospects on the NZ market and so decided to check out AFT. AFT seems to be a half way house between a neutriceutical like Blackmore and Promisia and a drug company like Pfizer. I had a quick look at their product list and mostly (solely?) they are formulations to deliver treatments that are already well established and not patented. This is different from generics where the generic manufacturer simply replicates the previously patented formula. From what I can see, AFT is as much a marketing company as it is a pharmaceutical company - "buy our product rather than anyone else's because ...."
Now, I realise that AFT's SP has been all downhill since it floated towards the end of 2016 amidst a degree of fanfare. This has been accompanied by continuing annual losses. Nevertheless, the EPS has been steadily improving which is a good sign. Then I looked at their debt situation. The Debt to Equity ratio at the end of March 2018 was 325.3% according to Morningstar. Ouch and more ouch. Not only that, but the ratio had increased from 38.2% at the end of March 2017 (a reasonable ratio). Without the latest annual results (probably released towards the end of May), I cannot determine what the current debt ratio is, and of course the current EPS figure will be helpful.
Now a company can increase debt in order to fund development and expansion and so I have to reserve judgement until we have the latest figures but that is such an extreme debt ratio, that it raise questions as to the viability of the company.
As a decent Kiwi, I want to support NZ business and especially those that export or sell their products overseas and I have a number of such in my portfolio. However, I cannot afford to throw money away and need some kind of return. AFT needs to prove itself a lot more to me at this stage I am afraid.
Yep t_j they did a PEB and came out with a good story ....did you ask them to?
Put a rocket under the share price?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...323/298380.pdf
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?4303-winner69: "Put a rocket under the share price?"
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?5811-peat: "share price not responding yet, only one lonely lowball buyer currently !"
And you are surprised? Surely not.
This was posted by me nearly exactly 2 years ago... wow my FY17 and FY18 forecast weren't bad (ended up being $69.2m in FY17 and 80.1m in FY18 operating revenues)
What I certainly didn't forecast was AFT share price dropping to its lowest point ever, despite my forecast (if true) showing a doubling in gross profits in just 4 years... someone was clearly very keen to get out, although the reason is not entirely clear why (it wasn't an insider selling as this would have been disclosed already).
Speaking of insiders, wow the board of AFT has been rock solid, nobody coming and going, just solid and steady management.
Anyhow, now to FY19: What I was also a bit off on was my FY19 forecast... $100m operating income likely a bit optimistic... I'll be expecting this in FY20 for sure (+ a significant portion of other income it has been indicated, which maybe several million additional income for FY20)
What I'd like to see in a months time when FY19 is announced:
- FY19 Operating Revenue of $88m, total Income around the $90m mark.
- Gross profit of $42m (wow that would be double what it was just 4 years ago - can't fault a company for doubling profitability every 4 years)
- Underlying operating profit of a few million
- Operating cash flow positive
- Bonus: first NPAT (not ever, AFT has been profitable for years and years) but a first NPAT as a listed company
Maybe that’s the big problemQuote:
trader_jackson
Speaking of insiders, wow the board of AFT has been rock solid, nobody coming and going, just solid and steady management.
Just looked at the nice portraits of them on their website ...OMG
I would be very concerned if it was a rotating door of people.
They are delivering, slightly slower than I'd like, but delivering none the less.... but clearly the market getting a bit impatient at lack of bigly announcements... solid and steady progress, like doubling of gross profit every 4 years, is clearly not enough to entice some to stick around.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...ferendum-nears
Wow they really pumping it now - media team must be reading share trader + seeing share price slump and wanting to put out a good story - and they delivered I reckon...
AFT soon gonna be like those pot companies on the ASX, have a small announcement on something related to cannabis, and then triple in price in a few days as a result of people lapping up 'the story'?
"It expected to return to profit in May when it released its 2019 annual result, Atkinson said." Sounds like NPAT for FY19 a done deal... we'll see in just a months time... that'll be a nice bonus as far as I'm concerned, before the bigly NPAT comes in FY20 and beyond.
Seems like AFT are "well positioned", profitability wise, and growth opportunity wise (and not just in new products, but new countries... "Over time he expected international sales from outside Australasia to make up about half of total revenue.")
Yep tj ...that news of medical marijuana is awesome
I’ll be buying tomorrow ...can’t live se I reckon
Can anyone who support AFT justify equity:debt of $2,960,000:$56,446,000? I believe there must be something if still support AFT even when they are valued at $160m with so much debts on their books.
Clarified ebitda v profit
But medical marijuana is the real game though eh tj
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...585/298679.pdf
Wow what a difference a non price sensitive article makes that simply re-states what the market should know... suddenly the buyers lined up have gone from maybe a thousand to well over 30 thousand... share price instantly up 4% and probably back to $2 later this week.
pretty thin trading across the board today,quite a few people are still on their long weekend,so perhaps BP is correct on this it's probably to early to call.
Not quite sure about all this cannabis hype. Let's face it - as soon as it is legal it is just another boring agricultural product which is easy to cultivate. Every dimwit can grow it with quite limited resources (easy to see if you look through the police statistics).
No moat and easy and without specialist skills to produce - why would we think that this will turn a money maker?
Just out of curiosity, does anyone know why AFT has not started selling medicinal cannabis to Aussie when it is allowed there and Aus is their main market?
When the average volume is 1,463 , to see 4,112 traded in 2 hours possibly does mean the bottom ($1.70) was reached... wow over 50 thousand shares lined up on the buy line now with over 10% of them at or above the $1.80 mark (remembering of course that about 88% of the shares issued on market have never been traded - effectively 'locked up')
I still wonder why that someone(s) wanted to get out over the prior 3 weeks, selling it down all the way from an already low $2 all the way down to $1.70
Tj ...this going to be a big story over the next year eh
Only worry I have is that the boss doesn’t seem to be the gang ho type and things might go slower than it should and they miss out
Might / tempted tontake those at 200 and tempt the guy at 220
That’ll put a rocket under the share price
Twitchy as
May pay to take the ones at $2.30 as well.?
Bids now up to $1.91... bit misleading when the share price is showing as $1.76... we all know it should be waay higher.
Even $2.30 is cheap compared to 1yr target price of $2.77, even cheaper when you look at Edison's report which closer to $5... Get in while you can they say.
wow , this 12% movement today really goes to show how emotive the market is !!
just a little toke(n) of cannabis and some users are pushing the price higher.
disc hold (so I am happy about this - but at the same time see it as kind of ridiculous)
I don't see it as too ridiculous at all... what is ridiculous is how the share price went down from $2 (already a record low) to $1.70 in a matter of weeks... down 15% off the back of no bad news
If it was to go to $2.50 today, then I might get the ridiculous label out.
What is more intriguing is the volume - no at 17k - that is over 10x more than normal with the day yet to finish, and 51k+ buyers still lined up (also much more interest than normal)... so there is some positives, the price going up 12% is simply a recovery of unnecessary lost ground... but thats the price you (can sometimes) pay with an illiquid stock that is (currently) AFT.
Tj ...that EXL on the ASX trades at about 20 times revenues ..mind you they sell hemp related stuff as well
AFT as a global medical cannabis supplier has a nice ring to it.
Ouch this hurts. I thought one of the clear differences to the other poster might be that I typically explain my rationale other than "my analysis says".
Apologies if I hurt your feelings by not sufficiently considering what the endowment effect might have done to you. But apart from that - was anything I stated incorrect?
It is doing exceptionally well in Australia (and has been for years)... both NZ and Australia grew two fold and sales in "sales in this half made to Italy, Ireland, Israel, Iraq, United Arab Emirates and the CentralAmerican Common Market (CACM)" up 70% and Southeast Asia revenue grew by 81%, so many other parts of the world are accepting Maxigesic very, very well... and that is 'just the beginning' with 'Further launches are imminent and are dictated by regulatory timelines" for the 'rest of world' category.
It took 3 weeks to go from $2 to $1.70 (and about 55k shares in volume), and in less than 2 business days (and about 23k shares in volume - so far), AFT straight back to $2... Amazing what a non price sensitive article restating last years AGM / half year comments can do.
Indeed risk is subjective and I could never believe that a Sharpe ratio helped.
AFT , for me is a very risky investment. A small new company not currently profitable. Liquidity very low. However I've done a bit of a Percy on it and everywhere I go to a chemist (surprisingly frequently these days) I enquire casually as to Maxigesic and I get pretty good feedback on it. And the company is really planning for great things - some of their markets are massive! And my partner swears by them as effective.
So I think , with a patient outlook , they could justify that higher level of equity risk (and probably a high beta), and in good time provide a high level of return.
Or not.
In 4 business days, share price has gone from $1.70 to $2.10... nice to see a over 20% gain in a week or so, wonder what the seller at $1.70 is thinking, turns out there was the volume/interest at a much higher price all along, just needed a sunday paper article to re mention what had previously (months ago) been mentioned.
Hopefully another 20%+ gain, but instead of 4 business days, probably have to wait 4 weeks this time (ie wait till post results announcement on 22 May)
They say the hope dies last ...
Still below the MA200, and still quite low volumes (well, sort of average for this illiquid stock).
But sure - they might present this year a (surprising) turnaround - and the rising SP would just point to a leaky ship. Not good.
However - this is not what the publicly available information says. I think what we see at the moment is just a case of people reading the (somewhat misleading) stuff.co.nz article (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...ferendum-nears ) without digesting the clarification released afterwards by the company.
"Buy the rumour" potentially followed after announcement by a "sell the facts".
I see this clarification (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333585) as telling - they clearly imply they are continuing to lose money, it is just their earnings before interest and depreciation which they expect to be positive.
Just hope that every buyer read (and understood) this clarification before buying, otherwise announcement day might turn into a bloodbath.
Who knows? Without insider knowledge all speculation.
Monday we had a fresh bid in at $2.11, thought we'd get to $2.20 by weeks end, but I was wrong... now $2.20 with a day and a half to go... now there are bids up to $2.25 with nearly 30k shares with buy orders of $2.15 or higher, and just 1 seller left (at $2.30)... how things can change in a few days... whispers of a good result leaking out?
I have to say, even I'm surprised at the swift rebound - sending AFT up 30% in less than 3 weeks - and volumes (for a stock that is basically 88% locked up) have been much higher than usual over the past 2 ish weeks as well... a leak of a better than expected result perhaps?
$1.70 to $2.40 in two weeks is a cool jump!... No sellers right now.
I am looking forward to the result and i hope the company will turn green this time.
There is a seller now - 1000 shares at $3.50... Quite crazy that nobody else seems fussed that this stock has increased over 40% in less than 3 weeks, in fact it is at the highest point since July last year
Then again, was weird why it ever went down in the first place
Jeez - you are trying hard ...
I guess first lets see whether they manage to get after 5 years of losses their operation back into the black (I recon not this year, but hopefully next), and whether they manage to at least sustain their (for a growth company) quite meagre revenue CAGR of 15 or so.
If they manage to deliver a profit next year than we can start wondering whether they might be a worthwhile investment and at what price.
NZ health and pharma industry not really a glowing success story at the moment ...