Quote:
Originally Posted by xxxxx
Hi Hoop,Just wondering if you think Tel is heading into a down trend or not? Had a negative brokers report yesterday but may be more to it than that,looked toppy over $2.90 so thought I'd wait and see if it went back into the late $260s range,your thoughts would be appreciated,Cheers xxxxx
Hi xxxxx..
It seems TEL could be in a confirmed bull market cycle...This stock is a slowburner of all slowburners..even though it is in a very slight long term uptrend buying into this thing as a buy and hold (bull market cycle strategy) would've presented those investors with a lost opportunity as the roaring NZX50 bull market party to make lots of money is (was) elsewhere...
The interesting thing is the word (was) Now that the NZX50 bull has has paused for a breather (hope that is all it is..!!!) it seems TEL may be worth a buy in except the NZX50 bull is a worry as it is a geriatric living on borrowed time..Bulls lifespan averages about 4.25 -4.75 years but are know to live past 7 years...so buying into TEL using discipline stops may still be a good idea..
Writing about investment strategies highlights Craic very successful trading range many buy/sells these last few years..See on the one year chart the highlighted rectangle chart pattern.Craic identified TEL trading behaviour very early on and xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxcan do with TEL as it is a very liquid and easy to quit out of if a trade goes pear-shaped...Not so noticeable on the chart is the length and breath of each rectangle pattern it is shrinking..this is not good news for Craic as he will have to change his strategy methinks as nothing lasts forever..the good news, maybe, if the 2.78 support holds, is this area could be the bull market cycle confirmation point that has taken ages to reach...It is very unusual for this confirmation to take this long after what looks like was the end of the bear market cycle back in mid 2011..If the 2.78 support breaks down it is back to uncertain times again where buy and holds are a doubtful strategy to use..
looking at the 14 year chart it shows why a buy and hold strategy is unwise and accumulating in dips even worse during a Bear market cycle..xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx...But is buy and hold a bad strategy??...no it not during bull market cycles but like all strategies you have to identify the behaviour of the stock you are investing in and use the best strategy for that period just how Craic did his trading range strategy during it's trendless times..
Also notice the rising OBV since the Bear cycle halted, people and insto's are accumulating this stock...the smart money think its worth a hold.
I actually didn't know just how technically important that 2.78 price is...there is no chatter about it on ST so it has gone unnoticed....Very interesting next few days...I might dip my toes on the water (the NZX50 is the big risk here putting me off) with stop/loss with aim for a small div collect...Hmmm I'll see if this 2.78 retest holds first though (confirm the bullish breakout).....Now at 281.5 it seems the water is safe to enter?? I'll hold off a while (lunch time crowd) after I send this PM.....I owe you a thanks in PMing me:).
Hope this explanation on TA helps clarify the broader picture about TEL....it is so easy for the overall picture of a share to get clouded over due to excessive media noise these days
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...EL30072014.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...L30072014L.png