Expected a better reaction this stock looks cheap might put it in my stock picks for the comp
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Expected a better reaction this stock looks cheap might put it in my stock picks for the comp
Severe gales for mon and tues for hawkesbay forecast. Hope it is downgraded. Good luck to holders ; batten down. Margin of risk built in to s/p for weather events?
I love a good apple but there's too much risk for my liking while the fruit fly issue is unresolved.
Def more risk than Air NZ ehh Rog.. Not sure what % of crop is picked atp.
I have shares in both SCL,and SEK.
I also hold shares in PGW,REL and PAZ.
I am well aware of the risks,and the rewards.
It is just a matter of what suits each individual investor.
I intend adding to my SEK holding,and depending on result,possibly adding to my PAZ holding.
I am happy with the amounts I have in PGW and REL.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurrican...e-Pam?map=5day
at the moment it shows the cyclone will die out by the time it reaches nz
I think so. Obviously planes can divert around bad storms whereas on the other hand apple trees can't. Likewise if a fruitfly goes through a jet engine, no problem it just get's pulverised.
The danger here is that if one or two countries ban apple exports from N.Z. it could cause a domino effect and others follow suit. For this reason to be honest I'm really quite surprised the stock hasn't re-tested 2014 lows in the mid 130's.
If the storm does in fact hit, it probably will hit the lows again - depends how many apples fall off the tree? I may re- enter again then
Sold my holding at open this morning as a precaution having bought at $1.36 can always buy back but just playing it safe(For a change)
Trading on very modest ratios.
A very soundly based business with excellent growth prospects.
You want upside?
Gross Dividend yield 9.75%
Distance from Broker targets 30%
Total Potential return 39.75%
FY15 pe ratio:10.4
But wait, there is growth as well:
-"We have a further 450,000+ TCEs of premium apples expected to come into production by 2018 increasing our premiumapple volumes by 43% over 2014 levels"
We again re-affirm FY2015 IPO forecasts.• Beyond this, Scales is positioned for considerable growth: Historical orchard investment is expected to deliver meaningful uplift in premium volumes over next 5years+. A number of initiatives currently underway and scheduled for FY2015 are designed to deliver growth forStorage & Logistics. Meateor continues to diversify supply (both geographically and by protein type).• Scales is positioned conservatively, with considerable headroom in our financial covenants.
You two gentlemen make a compelling case for the medium / long term. Hopefully the short term risks will pass soon enough with no material impact.
Couta - good luck but you may not buy back probably won't get back under $1.40 I reckon
Well team,what is going on?
Queensland Fruit Fly!!!!!!????????????? [think I have put more ! and ?s than found flies]
Cyclone Pam.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!????????????????????
Yet what is TA telling us? Buy signals!!!!???????
1] Share price $1.53 today.
2] 50 day EMA $1.52
3] 200 day EMA $1.51
4] Share price went through 200 day EMA on 22nd January 2015.
5] Golden Cross occurred 0n 25th February 2015.
Well it is currently in two downtrends (8 months & 1 month) and one uptrend (4 month).
Does a 200 day average mean anything when you have only 161 trading days for the stock?
$1.51 is the new resistance? Vive La Résistance.
I am keeping mine. ;)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Checked with MPI website, looks like fruit fly situation is under control, they've not found any more fruit flies than what was earlier. So that should be more assuring that its a localised situation for now at least. MPI have a done great job on this front in my opinion :t_up:
As I said on a previous post this will be a long drawn out process ......
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...nd-in-auckland
Wow big volume thro' today, look out for another SSH may be....
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/salt-fu...unds-bd-170312
We know Salt is a big fan of Scales. Perhaps they will direct some of the $690m into Scales
Another 400k gone thro' this morning...someone is keen
Another big volume day with small upward tick in price...
Anyone has an update on the fruit fly situation.
And so the upward trajectory continues.Up another 2 cents to $1.60.
I read the annual report over the weekend.Appears to be a very well managed,soundly based business with good growth prospects.
Really glad for Growers and S/H the storm never eventuated. I was in hosp at the time with (a consolation) swindow bed and it was great to see nothing building up in the skies; storm in a teacup.Dont know re Apple crop size and numbers but hear the kiwifruit season is looking great atp:)
Like how this one is shaping up and agree an excellent Annual Report, knew I should have bought some more last week......
Agreed. I took a modest opening position at the IPO price today. I reckon now the FF thing is all but done and dusted the stock has materially de-risked from where it was a month or so ago and on a risk reward basis is probably better buying now than it was in the low 150's when there was material risk of a major catastrophe with the fruit fly issue. I hope me coming on board isn't the precursor to them finding more fruit fly's :eek2:
First of all Joshuatree I hope you are well.
Remember an apple a day ........... !
The SCL annual report had some very interesting reading about land use in NZ;
pg 13 ,"Most of our land is set aside for agriculture production.""This land is used to generate more than $29 billion in Food and Beverage exports;representing 58% of all merchandise trade."
"But compared to our climate peers,our land is relatively unproductive.Small changes in productivity have scope to drive substantial increases in export revenues.
Scales.pg21.Orchard redevelopment and Apple Volumes;
"Over the past 7 years a SIGNIFCANT investment in orchard redevelopment has been made that,by 2018,is expected to result in Mr Apple growing and exporting a further 450,000+ TCEs of premium apples [or 43% increase on current premium volumes] WITHOUT any additional orchard investment.These varieties sold for prices that,on average,were 30% greater than traditional varieties in 2014."
Great stuff!!!!!
Disclosure.Thank you Noodles for bringing SCL and SEK to my attention.
Thanks to Noodles from me too. Thing is with apples there's no substitute product that's anywhere near as good and I'm a really strong believer in the apple a day keeps the doctor away and am absolutely addicted to having a lovely juicy fresh apple every day. It was a real shock late January / early February this year when apples were basically unavailable in Auckland for a couple of weeks. It really underscored to me how much I've come to love my favourite fruit and two weeks going without was bloody tough.
Coincidence? http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/we...he-doctor-away LOL
[QUOTE=Roger;566853]Agreed. I took a modest opening position at the IPO price today.
Good to see on board mate. Happy landing!!
[QUOTE=gv1;566926]Thanks mate. You know you're addicted to a good apple when you run out and the local "Supervalue" "supermarket" just up the road is selling premium Rose apples at this time of year for $6.99 a kilo but you buy them anyway :)
If silly Kiwi's can be fooled into paying silly prices surely plenty of those apples will find will willing buyers overseas.
"was a real shock late January / early February this year when apples were basically unavailable in Auckland for a couple of weeks. It really underscored to me how much I've come to love my favourite fruit and two weeks going without was bloody tough."
Hi Roger, not a "real shock" surely. It is a seasonal thing which happens every year. :)
Ok who's taking profits after talking it up;)
Looks like Alan Williams from Agrihq has been on the phone to Andy Borland. Couple of articles from this weeks paper.
http://agrihq.co.nz/article/shanghai...oost-sales?p=7
http://agrihq.co.nz/article/scales-b...activities?p=7
Thanks mate. Might have to have another bite of this one, excuse the pun :) we appear to be very well positioned.
Some more info on this juicy prospect for those that want to do some background reading
http://mrapple.com/why-mr-apple/
percy, Are you really Chris Lee? Same as this post? Have I outed you?
http://www.chrislee.co.nz/index.php?...pril&year=2015
Chris Lee also likes HNZ. The evidence mounts.
Looks as though I have been outed,Great Uncle Percy Lee.!!!!! lol.
I am pleased he found the excellent annual report as I informative as I did.
The section on NZ land use was an eye opener to me.
As with any excellent report,it was written in simple language,well set out,gave a full clear picture of where the company is,and where they see their future.I find company's who state their clear,simple vision usually achieve their objectives.
I also have found Chris Lee's comments on Heartland very well thought out.He picked up on Heartland very early on.Well before any other broker.
Scales report didn't have a Maori bit .... bad form
Fairly decent volume thro today, almost 800k shares so far.
Good finish at close to 162 supported by big volume, always a good sign price up with volume :t_up:
Chris Lee's impact today I guess, good finish with big volume for the day.
Good solid business with great growth and trading on undemanding multiples. Plenty of juice to come with this one :)
Yes fundamentally ok. But the technicals are also very strong...
A new closing high above the $1.60 technical resistance and ipo price. All this on high volume.
This is a high probability breakout trade.
Are there any breakout traders on the forum taking part in this?
This stock is covered by 2 brokers. The is still a 27% spread between the current price and the average broker target. Given the current overvaluation on the NZX, I think it would be hard to find a profitable company with such a high spread.
So as you say Roger, plenty of juice.
Reference to 27%
http://www.4-traders.com/SCALES-CORP...561/consensus/
Does anyone know why the SP dropped so much after the IPO? Only good indicators now, I might have to buy in next week.
Well I think we are talking about the same two brokers here,Craigs and FCNZ.
So their valuations are dumbed up on SCL and dumbed down on HNZ?
We live in interesting times.
Thanks for taking the time to sort out the dumb ups from the dumb downs for us,otherwise I would have remained just plain dumb??? lol..
Another big volume day today...
Like the way the depth is shaping up on this now, plenty of buyers above $1.60 and sellers starting to thin, hopefully step through to $1.70 over the next few days. I feel something is up with the big volume of late.
I have been in since IPO and purchased further twice (not averaged down!) at $1.45 & $1.40 so it is now my biggest holding and still the one I'm most comfortable with.
Agree, was hoping to see some SSH notice on NZX, nothing yet. Sure i've read somewhere on this forum that they announce dividend sometime in May. Can anyone here confirm pls. If so, could be the reason behind big volumes.
In any case, $1.70 looks like within reach looking at current depth.
Hi - they paid an early dividend in December but 1/2 year ends 30 June so expect result in August and dividend September.
Have a read of the annual report p.g.19
"Per our Prospectus and Investment Statement our intention is to declareand pay a final dividend in respect of 2014 in or about May 2015 to bringdividends to our IPO forecast. A final dividend of $13,567,000 (11.3 centsper share) was paid on 17 July 2014 in respect of 2013, and an interimdividend of $4,136,000 (3 cents per share) was paid on 19 December 2014in respect of 2014. The final dividend is subject to Board approval. It isstandard practice for the Directors to consider all aspects of the Group’sperformance and financial position prior to declaring any dividend."
Yes the December Divvy was just an interim, could be another 8 plus cents coming shortly....maybe explains the firming SP.
Thanks - that's good news seems odd when FY ends 30 June?
Thanks noodles - maybe I should say 1/2 year then, either way I'd be surprised (nicely) if divvy paid sooner than September!
This should also see Scales jump on the dividendyield.co.nz site that reports SCL at 1.84% and 79th in the order of highest to lowest dividend for 2014. If the actual dividend climbs to say 10 or 11c in total it would suggest a move to 6-7% and in the top 15.
Gunny
Holder having got in before the interim dividend after rebalancing my portfolio that had too high a percentage of AIR and HHZ for my comfort levels.
Gunny, A very astute and well-timed entry. I added some at that time as well.
But lets talk gross dividends as that is the common language around the investment community. Prospectus is 10.5-10.7c
If we use 10.6c, then the gross yield is 9% at the close of $1.64
I think there may be scope to increase this dividend given their results to date have exceeded forecast and they are in a better cash position than expected. Time will tell. I know management are frustrated with the low share price and I am suspect they might raise the dividend to get it moving.
Now you can get 9% from some zero growth gentailers or you can own a growth stock and still get the same yield. No-brainer for me.
Or maybe you could own both so that Queensland Fruit Fly or a major hailstorm / drought or.....??? in Hawkes Bay does not affect you so much.
Disc: Own both SCL & Gentailers. Even if it is a bit boring.
A fair comment. There are some major risks with the Scales business.
The orchards are well spread around the Hawkes bay, so a hailstorm will not wipe out the whole crop. It is good to see MPI are being a bit over the top with their actions on QFF.
Regarding gentailers, you will be well aware of the Tiwai point shutdown risks as well.
Risk free does not exist on the sharemarket:)
Probably have hail insurance or may have some orchards covered with permanent nets that means hail insurance not necessary?
http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/mpi-cu...#axzz3Z873aoR8
Looks like the fruit fly hangover is almost gone....
A good rise today on large volume. Has someone got wind of the dividend early?
https://nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/263922
Salt Funds upped their holding....
Next stop $1.70...?
Its looking very juicy and very tempting to take another bite :)
How El Nino proof are our Scales orchards? I am seeing news of early signs of one occurring.
Knowing some areas of NZ are effected more than others and the importance of water to the crops there are obviously some risks. I note NZ is not as effected as others like AUS but there are still impacts with drought risks in some areas, higher winds and rainfall in others.
I have not DMOR in detail yet but interested on comments on same i.e. areas crops are compared to high risk areas of a possible El Nino, mitigation of risks by the water supplies, wells etc. that are in place. Possible wind impacts?
Happy, confident holder and looking forward to announcement's this month. Plan to stay in for long term at this stage and seeing a bright future.
I think the biggest weather worries will occur in 2065,most probably late in the year,so I think we have a few years of just the usual weather challenges ahead of us.
For your own interest go back to my post #139 on this thread,and read page 13 of SCL's annual report.
Percy, I have heard of long range forecasts, but 2065?? Seriously!!
Doubt any of us will still be holders by then lol.
Yes seriously.lol.
However, I think if you look at NZ's weather over the last 50 to 100 years, the more we talk about it, the less it changes.
So I can only look forward 50 years,that is why I said it will be probably be late in the year that it changes.
In the meantime the only real weather worry is hail.Always has been.
,
Fully imputed final divvy of 7cps
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SCL/announcements/264417
Very juicy and tasty just like their apples :)
Excellent... :t_up:
Umm..seems as if Mr Market has already priced in the divvy announcement.