The trading hype is pretty similar though right? Tech stock, comparisons to Xero etc etc, hysteria and euphoria reigns.
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You r on the money MR
Catch a falling KNIFE, when is the time , $1.55, hmmmmm !
WHERES OUR SHARE, seems to have dissappeared, is this a software issue or a NZX problem, WHATSUP ? !!
They are common place already! In-fact in NZ alone there are 3 other companies I know of with same SaaS offering.
Fergus (NZ)
http://www.fergusapp.com
XnappDragon (NZ)
http://www.xnappdragon.com
WorkflowMax (NZ)
http://www.workflowmax.com
It's already started: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/geoop-l...ebut-bd-147888
Drifting back up to $2. Still punters wanting in.
So this company has a lot more potential than WYN and SLI? Hmmm?
So this company has a lot more potential than WYN and SLI? Hmmm?
If it holds up above $2, then it shows that the last capital raising they did was far to cheap and existing shareholders got ripped off. The new shares were for a significant portion of the company so it wasn't a minor dilution. I would be surprised if the founders and insiders stuffed up that bad. Hence I will wait for it to settle.
Market cap for WYN and SLI is still at least double GEO if that signifies the potential of the companies (as opposed to the trading potential).
For those interested in this outfit the comments under the NBR story are quite interesting (The Doctor has not commented yet)
One guy says the sales numbers don't stack and one guy says it is a bit naughty of a shareholder with 200,000 shares writing 'customer reviews' all over the place
Maybe this is what a new paradigm looks like
Well I got this well and truely wrong today , who would have thought of this retrace.
On another subject are there any punters on there who daytraded this today and made money ?, if so give us the trade details, cheers.
Dame - the days high
Not quite the low so very disappointing :) . Nice way to capitalised on a sick day. Have you considered turning 'pro' - are you working to wards a level of capital where that would be viable or are you still having your share of losers?
The TV3 coverage was quite conservative. Even Mark Weldon said I put in 2 mill and it will hurt if it does not go well. That's what investors should experience. Even the staff were full of " having to perform "statements.It may temper a few of the Xero repeat dreamers....that's my take..
Cooper, the real point is that there was TV coverage.
Seen a TV crew outside your corner dairy recently, a business that is currently turning over more than GeoOp, but, presumably, is not capitalised at 50 million dollars?
I've been slowly edging up to this for 12 months, but, now I'm calling it : Unbelievably, after little more than a decade, we now have another dotcom bubble.
Enjoy it if you want, profit if you can, but do not delude yourself and prepare accordingly for it to blow, because it will.
Recently, I've been hearing people say to compare Xero not to Meridian, or Auckland Airport or Contact (one gets scared when one does that!) but to similar Nasdaq listed tech stocks.
This form of analysis (find something even more expensive to make your pet stock feel cheap) is, in itself, never a good sign.
Regardless, I've spent the last week doing just this. Line by line, going through over 100 Nasdaq stocks, nearly all cloud plays.
I have been shocked - I had no idea we - once again, 12 years later - had zero revenue stocks being listed with multi billion dollar market caps.
And now I get it. Xero **IS** cheap when compared to some of this crap.
Of course, someone with this mindset doesn't do the next step - take the zero revenue Nasdaq crap and then compare THAT to Meridian!
I'm calling it. We're here. Tech stocks bubble, will blow horribly.
Enjoy the game guys, and feel free to commence laughing at me.
After losing a fair bit on US dot.com bubble 12 years ago I think your post is "right on the money."
Timely warning !!
I went through the dotcom bubble in 2000, lost a bit, learnt a lot. This is as stranger danger puts it very similar to 12 years ago. The same rationale is being used, the same justifications, the same blown out prices on stocks and the same zealous like defending of prices and ridicule of those "old farts" who just do not understand that this is something different and revenues and PE's are a thing of the past and do not matter.
Like stranger danger said... make money while you can but be prepared to pull out because a lot of people are going to get hurt and a lot will become disillusioned with capital markets.
I wasn't investing back there.
My understanding is the 'difference' this time is that it is based on the growth of paying customers (even if 'currently' those customers don't cover costs). The past bubble was based on the growth of non paying clicks/pages views/etc which relied on an advertising model - of which Google is the most successful company to survive.
Is that correct?
And if so, does that 'difference' actually matter?
Does this 'difference' rely on a 'winner takes all' outcome as that is the only way revenues will cover costs?
Hi CJ,
I wasn't even thinking of the mechanics of where revenue comes from. Back then the "difference" was that the "internet" (very much at its infancy) was going to do away with everything and totally change the way business operates. A new paradigm as it were. But the similarities with now is the thinking and hype that goes on with these stocks. The very premise that revenue and profit are not that important and that potential growth is infinite, forgetting the very real risk of competition. It is so easy to get caught up and many may feel they are missing the boat and tend to get in at exactly the wrong time. And do not be fooled by the so called experts or fund managers purchasing as well. Back in 2000 the "experts" got caught out just as badly as the punters.
It doesn't really matter what the "difference" is. Whenever you hear the justification for avoiding real things such as PE's and earnings being "this is different" then you know something is wrong.
Just my opinion off course :)
Geo op does have the edge on its competitors. Last night I talked to a friend of mine who runs an app develoPment company. He said it would be very difficult to make a better product. The standard of the app according to him was top notch
Discl not holding
Being the best doesn't necessarily mean you will win. I can only think of the really ancient analogy of Betamax vs VHS - VHS won due to marketing even though Betamax was the better product.
If XRO added GPS to workflow max and bundled it, then it might win for that reason alone.
Its overpriced and I also believe that Xero can come up and add this feature.
Depends which one is cheaper I guess.
Financial apps (Xero) and Mobile Work Management apps (GeoOp) have an almost completely different set of functions, features, customer business applications, etc. One is not an add-on to the other unless your software suite has an application portfolio as big as SAP, IBM or Oracle.
$2.65... whoa...
I tried to get in twice once at $1.90 and then @ $2.4 and I was just kept chasing the price Broker told me it wasn't worth it so have lost interest and cancelled my sizeable orders. It is a great company but 150% in 2 days maybe a bit much and next week there might be a bit of "Hot Potato" being played.
Is anyone holding this?
Is anyone trading this?
I just noticed it is 6c away from $3.
I was thinking of getting in once the price settled but thought that would happen in the $1-$2 range!
Anyone buying now is a fool.. If this isn't a bubble what is.. $80M market cap now, absolutely ridiculous!! We are definitely in the "Euphoria" phase of the market cycle. **** is going to hit the fan....
I was going to buy it yesterday, just for a day trade, but I changed my mind,got that wrong would have been a nice profit for the day. And was going to do the same thing this morning but it had already gone up enough on opening so didnt, I would never buy this stock at this price and hold it, I have to agree its a bubble this one, still good for a day trade if signs are looking good. Will be interesting to see if it breaks 300 today, I dont think it will.
Crazy stuff. A similar thing happened to SLI.Went up to 2.50 as I recall now back down to under $2.
looks like i was wrong 300 now
Insanity considering their current sales and the competition out there. Completely ridiculous. What are people thinking? Wait... I don't think people are.
Maybe they are just looking to trade it, hope that it gets pushed up another few cents to make a small profit...
If you were investing at this price then yes personally id think you where insane.
But id be interested to hear from anyone buying this for long term and what they base it on. Maybe they see something I dont, i would love to know.
Wow someone bought 17347 at $3.00.
up 25c - decent volue - $250k traded.
Who knows something no one here knows?
Crazy beyond crazy. :scared:
Speechless...
$90M market cap, $27,000 revenue in september. This is the most absurd valuation. I don't know when this tech bubble is going to crash, but people are going to get severely burnt, and they deserve it for being so stupid.
A classic example of 'value-by-association'. Who remembers RMG back in year 2000? I do, buying at 36cps and selling out just 2 months later for 25cps, losing too much than I care to remember...but a lot less than if I'd hung onto them - they ended up in receivership.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rmg-limite...ectid=10123067
On Eric Watson's reputation, which wasn't half bad at the time (he'd just sold gen-i to Telecom at a huge profit) and the fact that the MD of RMG had previously worked for Baycorp (which was then a very successful local debt collection agency that had made many investors happy), RMG hit the NZX with flair (and later the ASX), lots of promise and hype...with many NZ investors taken for a ride...some into debt. I wonder if any who lost more than me ended up a target (and therefore part of the business) of RMG - now that would be ironic...verging on tragic.
Watch out that you are not played for a sucker with GEO, or any other stock, that promises more than it can deliver. Where are the sales? How credible are their sales forecasts? What is their operating model? What startup costs are forecasted? What are they prepared to tell investors about product development? What is their sales & marketing strategy to overcome the competition and increase market share? Do they even know their competition and market? What is their capital plan, etc, etc.
Speculate and trade accordingly - that's fine - but quantify the risk and mitigate carefully. Stop-loss this high riser to avoid significant loss, and be wary when they tickle your ears.
BC
There are some analogies to PEB, the difference being PEB has non copyable IP with a led time over competitors (both due to requiring medical certification). GeoOp is in a competitive market where the only value in its IP is being able to keep updating it quicker than competitors can copy it (same with XRO which has a 2 year + lead on the competitors)
And with that comment, it jumps 70c.
lol :scared:
I just can't see, within reason, what's driving it.
Anyone trading this? Too be honest i think it's still going to shoot up abit over the next week or so but this is to risky for me.
Caveat emptor
I would never compare PEB with GEO - what an insult. :) Yes GEO is in a competitive market, and unlike XRO they don't have any lead on competitors and their product isn't unique. In fact if you watch the TV3 interview with Leanne Graham, she is asked what gives them the edge over their competitors, her answer was essentially that they had a great company culture, the right people and the belief that they can do it.
Seems the louder you guys protest, the higher it goes.
Disc: not for me, so in my view, why comment and look a fool. Plenty of those about
I am sorry but if you are in GEO and reading this, get out while you can. There is absolutely no way that this company could support a 90 million market cap with its current revenue and competitors out there. Run fast, run quickly.
For XRO, my advice was cautionary and still is. The amazing thing with Xero is that they now have $180 million in the bank and can ride out the next 5 years probably even if tech stocks go belly up (again). At the time when Xero was building, they had various competitive edges, bank feeds and being the only real SaaS accounting software on the market.
How much does GEO have in the bank? What are their competitive edges? Are they the only one offering the service they are?
The difference is like chalk and cheese.
If I could short this stock at $4, I would.
Anybody know which brokers, if any, would allow traders to short this stock?
$4.11!!! oh my!! Only we were in it!!! the crazier it gets, the higher it goes!
Wow, can't quite believe it. Since I'm not a trader one of my rules is not to buy a stock that I wouldn't want to hold long term - which has ruled out GEO for me - but well done to all those riding this on the way up!
Still shaking my head in disbelief. Too risky for me. Been burnt before.
XRO I can get my head around.... GEO I can't!
I just can't see what there market advantage is.
Whoever advised the GEO board on pricing their IPO should hang their head in shame.
Raising 8m @ $1. 5 days later trading above $4.
You'd have to say they left at least $20m on the table. That's money they are going to desperately need.
Mark Weldon's done well. Owns 10% of the company. I'm guessing but I reckon the founders would of gifted him those shares to get him on the board in the first place.
Surfer - Your on the wrong thread.
I must say I am surprised they you haven't developed a software program that does all that for you as you seem to think this stuff is easy to do. All the info is on the web somewhere.
Xero currently have 584 and aiming for 1000 : http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post...apital-raising
Sound familiar?
Time for everyone to look at this chart again to remind everyone where we are at:Quote:
Dot-com bubble
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The period was a marked by the founding (and, in many cases, spectacular failure) of a group of new Internet-based companies commonly referred to asdot-coms. Companies could cause their stock prices to increase by simply adding an "e-" prefix to their name or a ".com" to the end, which one author called "prefix investing".[3] A combination of rapidly increasing stock prices, market confidence that the companies would turn future profits, individual speculation in stocks, and widely available venture capital created an environment in which many investors were willing to overlook traditional metrics such as P/E ratio in favor of confidence in technological advancements.
http://visualfinance.info/wp/wp-cont...ions-Cycle.jpg
445 to 390 in 3 minutes... Will it bounce in the short term?
I jumped on the "Xero is the Apple of accounting" and go in at 3700 yesterday, got off at 4100 today.. I haven't touched GEO because it seems to be that it really is just speculation and excitement (right now)... Does it really mimic XRO?
Wow dropping with Xero it really is mimicing
I don't know copper Geo just took another tumble with Xero seem's like too much of a coincidence to me.
From $4.49 to $3.17 in the space of a few hours on no news. Some kind of record for an NZ listed stock?
xero dropped in price, i wouldn't call that no news :P
Haha yes you are correct. It was a tongue in cheek reply :P
The mirroring of XRO and GEO price movements over the last two days are amazing.
But what is even more amazing is that GEO = 2x XRO
Link
I wonder how the person who paid 449 is feeling if they are still holding.
Value.. Value.. Value..
Just a reminder.. If it is still in vogue..
Usually i have empathy when people loose money but with this stock it just doesnt worry me.
Feel sorry for those newbies. Hope them learn the lesson and don't lose too much for the tuition fee
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. But it is tempting though, don't you feel, to come in now on a deadcat bounce. Buy at $2.50 to sell over $3 Monday?