Still a well governed company compared to many in NZ where huge non-performance salaries abound and golden parachutes are insult upon injury.
Printable View
Still a well governed company compared to many in NZ where huge non-performance salaries abound and golden parachutes are insult upon injury.
Shame about the stuff up in Oz though eh.
Quite right Gryff. It is a well run, good solid company and is held in some esteem by the offshore guys. A lot of the pessimism is quite irrational. Not that I'd buy it just yet though ;)
Same cap, money working well elsewhere but it may be the next good recovery stock so sometime soon I may get in.
Yeah it’s funny that how people are pessimistic about loosing money, can never figure people out.
Heard from a good source that things maybe turning around in Aussie, me not a ramper ,dont hold WHS.
WHATSUP, It is normal for it to turn round before it goes down the gurgler. [The AUSSIE bit I mean]. MACDUNK
Aussie still a disaster - am in QLD tomorrow - will visit some stores
Its easy to turnaround a cash bleeding op when youre in the red.
LOOK a 50% improvement!!! negative $10,000,000 (03 - $20m);)[:p]
Cant see Aus coming around that fast myself...
Its the sole reason for loosing $1,200,000,000 off the market cap.
poor Bongo, hes been oh so quiet lately.
The BLUE SHEDS IN NZ SURPRISED ME:(
Was told that some of the signs of change are there (in Aussie)wont be a huge turn around, big losses still expected, but a change in some things never the less.
Remember sales announcement on Tuesday
If you believe this quarter has been a boomer better get in quick on Monday
Might open 450 on Tuesday
THE KING says this company has the best PR & TV adds in NZ that is ALL..[^][^][^]
I would prefer WHS to be one of the most profitable companies in NZ rather than the most "socially responsible", but it is better than nothing I suppose.
Warehouse gets top social responsibility rating
08.11.2004
1.00pm
SYDNEY - The Warehouse Group has been adjudged New Zealand's most socially responsible company by Melbourne-based ratings company RepuTex.
The independent rating agency assessed the social responsibility of 93 of the Australia's top 100 companies and the top 20 New Zealand companies, releasing its results today.
It started rating Australian companies last year and this year included New Zealand firms.
The top five Kiwi companies were the The Warehouse, Carter Holt Harvey, Telecom, ACC NZ and New Zealand Post.
RepuTex examined the companies' activities and policies in four areas -- corporate governance, environmental impact, social impact and workplace practices -- over the past six months.
Each company received a rating of either AAA (outstanding), AA (high), A (satisfactory), B (low) C (very low or D (inadequate).
The Warehouse's overall rating was AA minus, while Carter Holt Harvey and Telecom received an A plus and ACC and NZ Post an A.
Other New Zealand ratings were:-
A minus: Genesis Power Ltd, Meridian Energy Ltd.
B plus: Fisher and Paykel Appliances Holding Ltd, Fletcher Building Ltd, Mighty River Power Ltd.
B: Air New Zealand Ltd, NGC Holdings Ltd, Tenon Ltd.
B minus: Contact Energy Ltd, Trust Power Ltd.
C plus: Affco Holdings Ltd, Alliance Group Ltd, Fonterra Co-Op ltd, Nuplex Industries Ltd.
RepuTex said it had insufficient information on which to base a rating for Wrightson Ltd.
Its highest accolade for Australian companies went to Westpac, with a triple AAA rating.
RepuTex said the bank worked hard to ensure all its policies were communicated to employees and its ethical standards were promoted through comprehensive training.
Companies with a AA rating were Australian Postal Corporation, BHP Billiton, Energex, Hewlett-Packard Australia, IBM Australia, Insurance Australia Group, National Australia Bank, Queensland Rail and Visy Industries.
RepuTex chairman Graeme Lee said most companies were recognising the importance of corporate social responsibility.
"Many have a dedicated a team of staff to manage social responsibility and the number of companies publishing comprehensive social reports continues to grow," he said in a statement.
"Companies and the community are recognising that they need each other to be sustainable."
Telecom, which was previously rated through its Australian entity AAPT showed a marked improvement from 2003, largely due to the introduction of enhanced reporting systems, the ratings agency said.
Its rating of New Zealand companies disclosed some innovative work practices.
"For example, NZ Post applies a preferential employment status to women who resign after maternity leave and seek to be re-employed within 5 years," RepuTex said in its report.
"As an alternative to the company's co-contribution to retirement savings, at the rate of 1.5 times the employee contribution, an employee may use a similar contribution matching scheme to pay off student debt."
I am no expert chartist, but from what I can see from the graph WHS is heading lower.
Any expert chartist can give us advice?
THE KING says if they like or feel they know something think again if they are folling Carter Holt Harvey,, Prob NZ WORST.. [^][^]
Bling Bling, WHS has found support around $4.00 several times in the past, and if it breaks much below that level, a lot of TA's would be selling (if they havent done so already...which they probably have)
Bling Bling,
I doubt that I can tell you anything that you do not already know, but here is an updated WHS chart. Trendline break Buy signals are marked with green arrows, trendline break Sell signals are marked by red arrows. As Risk points out, there has been good support for WHS at around $4.00 and any clear break below that would be very bearish. My opinion, for what it's worth, is that the Support will hold and that WHS will go into a trading range. Only a guess, mind, but mine is as good as anyone elses! Notice how most every time a secondary downtrend approaches the $4.00 support level, volume spikes up - it takes volume to reverse a trend.
Notice how for about a year now that most all high volume days are down days. (red bars) There is still a lot of negative sentiment about this stock.
I cannot see that any TA trend-followers would be holding this stock. There have been no buy signals. While WHS may have stopped making lower lows, it is still making lower highs and is still in a long-term downtrend with a confirmed trendline in place.
So, what to do? Nothing. If you feel that you simply must buy this stock, at least wait for price action to break above the red trendline. Even then, you should appreciate that the end of a downtrend is not necessarily the same thing as the beginning of an uptrend. WHS could go into a trading range lasting years. I'm not saying it will, of course - only time will tell. All I can say is that right now, there is no technical evidence of any imminent turnaround or any change of sentiment toward this stock. In brokerspeak, Avoid.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4...456/WHS001.gif
Thanks Risk and Phaedrus. Always good to have expert advice. Wow Phaedrus you really know your stuff. Where do you get your detail graphs from? May keep an eye on WHS for the next few days. Maybe good trading opportunity, but then the interest rate increase and the slowing of the economy worries me abit.
Hey, have I missed something or WHS looks very expensive on fundamentals. WHS reported FY profit of $61 million and a market cap of $1.24 billion @ $4.07 gives it a PE of 20x. That is an expensive company that continues to lower earnings. Have I miss something out to justify such a high PE?
Don't think you have missed anything BB ... WHS is a very expensive stock, kind of trading on reputation rather than reality ... put it on the same P/E as say Telecom and you'd have a share price of $2.50 !! Scary isn't it !!!
Personally I think WHS is ex-growth, has a huge problem in Australia which will probably end up costing the company 10's if not 100's of millions of dollars to exit or fix. Don't touch it ... if you need some retail exposure in your portfolio have a look at Hellaby ( Rodd & Gunn, Hannahs , Pulp, BBQ Factory ) ... low 2005 P/E of approx 12.5 and a dividend yield of 5.75% and eps still growing in the mid-teens. A bargain compared to WHS !!
Disc: Ex WHS holder ( out at $7.40 & $4.95 )
Hold 2058 HBY
WOW some really interesting stuff here, the all mighty WHS heading south, didn`t it float for about 50c amazing growth story really and returns for any that held long term, goes to show though nothing lasts forever , will be watching with interest to see were it heads.
another baycorp maybe?
Not trying to defend the share but foreward PE of about 15 based on following announcement in Sept "The company said it was comfortable with market consensus that the 2005 full-year profit would come in at about $82 million" compared to 04 result of $61M.
Yeah Nimble, only with the proviso of ceteris paribus.
Not familiar with "ceteris paribus" Care to eloborate for the masses?
Perhaps that learning of Latin so many years ago,has at last been useful for me, my guess is "All things remaining equal" ?
Nimble, WHS have disappointed the market expectations a couple of times on the downside. Looking at the BGR and PPG announcements, gives me the indication that the WHS may disappoint again, especially with Aussie. As per Nelehdine, WHS looks very expensive on fundamentals.
Disc: dont hold WHS shares, but still waiting and watching
Sales figures out this morning. From a lay persons point of view they look terrible with both red sheds and Aussie reporting lower same store sales.
Was this already factored in or are we going to see a fall in todays price?
THE KING says dont worry what ever happens there will be share SUPPORT... [^][^][^]
I see Red.
$3.75 by christmas.
Dump and run.
If you want value out of the Warehouse then the best that you can hope for are post christmas specials for the kids.
Dunno Kingy, they are getting a pounding today. There is only so much support that interested parties can provide before the futility of it hits them in the pockets too.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by THE KING
THE KING says dont worry what ever happens there will be share SUPPORT... [^][^][^]
Where will it end.
I think $3.75 by the end of the week Toddy , no need to wait till Christmas. The company seems to be going backwards at an alarming rate of knots ... now it's the weather in NZ that's the problem , no warm spring weather !! , what will the next excuse be ??? STEER CLEAR .. I think their forcast of $82m might be optimistic for the 05 year, the shares will not be "cheap" until they fall below $3 !! Be patient if you must buy ... The lustre of Stephen Tindall is fading fast !!
THE KING says Yer right there has been a dip but supported but meanwhile back at Paraparaumu Store it has just received New floor coverings a re new layout and Dam a lot more stock so things DO change also a lot of workers doing the Re jig they must like it too,
Like BGR & WHS are NZ biggest as NZ is not getting bigger in size these Company ARE... [^][^][^]
Pumpkin Patch are still growing in NZ , they are still growing in Australia, they have just started in the UK , if they get that right they will make a LOT of money. Yes the shares are expensive on a current P/E ratio but compared to WHS and BGR I know which company I think has a more exciting future over the next few years.
Hold PPL
So King, what are you going to buy at for yourself from the Warehouse for xmas.
Been away from New Zealand for a while so I do not know what is 'in' and what is 'out'.
I have a feeling that WHS will go to $3.00 if it closes today below $3.90.
Retailing is just a tough business and getting tougher.
Just not the place to park your money.
WHS must be the winner of the "most loved stock of all time award"
But even here sentiment will eventually sour.
Bongo
"A long term thing, or just a meaningless swing" ????????
Right on Belg - as I have said a few times now price deflation is a killer for retailers ... esp when operating costs are increasingQuote:
quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Quite involved in the NZ grocery market ... margins are under significant pressure, due primarily, to 'deflation' on imported stuff ... WHS is likely to be quite similar.
WHS prob selling heaps more stuff but getting less for in the till ... and operating costs are going up 3-4% ... so margins are stuffed
More bad news to come
And KING - same problem for BGR
so glad i'm still on the sidelines - one day soon this is going to be bargain buying but now with $4 broken pay to wait and see a little.
Hey king - what happened to your cabal of price fixers?
Not that soon Gryffyn ... WHS has some serious problems that aren't going to be fixed any time soon ... better off looking elsewhere for 12 months at least I would guess ....
One thing that does impress is their ability to analyse sales data. Seems to have improved since last years " we didn't have playstation 2 on the shelves " excuse.
I agree that margins must be under huge pressure. In addition to the weekly catalogue, there is, nearly every weekend, a 2 day sale, with significant discounts. Also, some of their markets must get near saturation, or at least slow down a bit. There is a limit to the number of plastic bins, cheap radios etc, that one needs. Stuff will last, sometimes, or its once bitten twice shy.
Bel, I am only guessing the $3.00. On the charts WHS has only one way to go, that is down.
Never been a WHS-holder, but have now become interested in the debate.
This sort of cut-throat-business can not go on for long. I am watching WHS now, possibly starting to buy a few soon, as I think sometime along the way there will be a take-over of the weakest in the market...in my opinion, that's the Warehouse
-smells horribly of fly-spray
-sells the cheapest of the cheapest Chinese junk
-absolutely no shopping athmosphere
Bought a light summer-blanket in K-Mart the other day. Nice colour choice, made from cotton in India, real nice for $10-00!!
Nothing comparable in the warehouse by a long mile!!
Pumpkin Patch +7 to new high of 227 .... talk about "Chalk and Cheese" !!
Disc: ex WHS holder and current PPL holder
WHS sitting on the low of the day at 385 -19 ... the "mums and dads investors" aren't going to be pleased when they see the terrible sales performance on the news tonight or in the paper tomorrow .... the stock looks like it is in serious trouble to me !! STAY OUT !!
As you would expect the sales announcement has gone down with the market like a 'turd through a tea strainer'
Don't touch this dog. If they have a similar reduction in the next period you will be looking at around $2.50. In the meantime who is there to seriously support this stock before they see the trend has changed. Even the mugs who were trying to hold it above $4.00 won't have the balls to have another go.
Oh really? So India is now the measuring stick for quality huh? Too bad they don't make affortable DVD players and Nike sport shoes which kiwis learnt to love and buy. The Indian clothing industry is still living in a time capsule from 17th century, ever since the British deindustrialised the country's weaving industry. The clothing they make look better because they are mostly hand knitted by child workers on slave wages, even lower than Chinese standards.Quote:
quote:-sells the cheapest of the cheapest Chinese junk
Bought a light summer-blanket in K-Mart the other day. Nice colour choice, made from cotton in India, real nice for $10-00!!
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by bongo66
Just going by todays depth there are alot of substantial buyers and very few substantial sellers and sellers only reach half decent volumes @ 4.15 and it is pretty much clearway until depth stops at 4.60.
Dont know what that means but could be a trading opportunity for you shorties.
B
stick to mowing lawns mate;)
C9,
I have tried to tell him, he just doesn't learn...
Winner,
Thanks for the insight into retail, lowered prices and margin compression. I never really thought about a low exchange rate coupled with fixed margins being a bad thing - it seems glaringly obvious now.
Its not that often I actually learn something new about business on this forum, but its good to see that I can.
Cheers.
P.S. - not all retail stocks are shockers. Check out FAN on the ASX to see one beauty... (maybe a little pricey now though).
OK Benlamnz, re: Warehouse, I was singling out the clothes and fabrics and forgot the electronics and other sections. Might be different there.
However, bought a new computer "Made in China" in a Chinese computer shop a few weeks ago. Reasonably priced considered I wanted one with my own specifications.
2 Hours later the brandnew 300 watt motor blew and was renewed no problems. 6 hours later the second brandnew 300 watt motor blew and was renewed with no problems. Insisted on a 400 watt motor which now does the job. No extra costs.
I am not so sure about Chinese quality.
I do not know whether this blanket I bought was made using child labor, but one has to be real careful these days.
Warehouse stores as well as K-mart stores et al. should issue statements whether their products are manufactured using child labor or not.
The link today was very interesting, about Best Buys new customer strategy.
Its exactly what stuffed BGR and now WHS regular weekend sales!
Consumers are getting smarter (wiser) and its become so much easier to *compare* on the net. Only buy in sales and loss leaders.
But *LONG TERM* WHS will outgrow AUSSIE then TAKEOVER CHINA;)[:p]
I called poor Bongo the site Jinx once...
twice? RBD now WHS...
we will have to watch SKC very closely[}:)]
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
Aussie , China, the world!!!
not in hindsight my dear Bong...
and Id thought you`ld gone quiet because of your calls...
silly C9
...never sticks his neck out:D
But Id agree...
another $60m!!!! off the market cap is abit of an overreaction!!!
:D:D:D
no comment
Amazing stuff ....
Floorspace up 74,000 sq metres from a year ago but ...
...sales up a miserly $5M extra in sales
What is the cost of filling up that 74,000 sqm of space? what is the additional operating expenses resulting because of this extra space?
And then tell me that WHS are making more money than last year. Just like the second half of the last financial year they have to be making less this half year as well.
Taking of floorspace WHS have always prided themselves on increasing sales per sqm of footprint.
WHS run a business model that sort of says put shopping space down and the droves will come and sales will go up.
This time last year the Red Sheds sales were $3855 per sqm per year.
The Red Sheds now have 44,000 extra sqm than a year ago .... suggesting that this space should generate about $170M in extra sales per year.
Say about $35M this quarter .... but sales in the Red Sheds were only $5M .... meaning if the Red Sheds were as efficient as they have been the sales shortfsall is really $30M odd this quarter.
More floor space appears to be destroying heaps of shareholder value in economic terms ... which is being reflected in a declining shareprice
cant be f**** reading thru c9's "i told bongo so crap" so this comment may have been made before.....
the bad news should have been quite obvious to all...
whs last year said that they would only announce 1st and 3rd 1/4ly sales if they were significantly different to market expectation...as i said then...does this really comply with continuous disclosure.....so.....whs announcing that 1st 1/4 figures would be out soon meant only one thing...bad news!!!
what i dont really understand..
with the nzd as it is and the nz consumer spending as they have been (continual increase in credit card debt)...why isn't a retailer like whs raking in the money?
people have said
1) whs is handing all nzd "gain" over to the consumer via decreased sale price
2) whs is just selling sh*t so sales will go to people selling "better" imported goods...but with products like "dell" and "shriek"!!!
3) mgmt problem!!!???
im not even including the aust problem in this scenario!!!
my view........
1) broken $4...whs on its way down
2) next "problem"...xmas sales
3) if there is any delay...even 1 day..for the announcement of the 6 mth or xmas sales figure..there will be bad news
4) from previous posts there seems to be a bit of a problem re stock and pricing
5) not too good coming up to the silly season!!!
6) given the sales trend as announced by 1st 1/4 sales...i cant see 2nd qtr (year on year) being "flash"
7) $2 share price (as per the drop when whs had the stock problem) may not be silly within the next 6 months...sentiment for whs is turning (and as some people have said....you cant prop up the share price forever!!)
downwards is where whs is going...how far it falls no one knows (except phaedrus!!!...he'll tell us about it later!!!)..expect falls in the next couple of days...maybe the 4 day rule will apply here...i wouldn't put my money on it
No it doesn't, but several in a row spell bad times.
Have to say, I don't own any and almost got some recently so feel relieved. Really thought the bad news was over and that these guys would be bouncing back by now.
As always, the question now is how can they go?
WHS should have support at $3.50Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn
No it doesn't, but several in a row spell bad times.
Have to say, I don't own any and almost got some recently so feel relieved. Really thought the bad news was over and that these guys would be bouncing back by now.
As always, the question now is how can they go?
Just like they did at $4.00 ... held up for a while but didn't do you much good in the end if you bought in at that level. $3.00 will be the support after that !!! then $2.50 ....
Stay out ... people who try to be clever and pick bottoms tend to get smelly fingers !!!!
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by madmike
cant be f**** reading thru c9's "i told bongo so crap" so this comment may have been made before.....
the bad news should have been quite obvious to all...
whs last year said that they would only announce 1st and 3rd 1/4ly sales if they were significantly different to market expectation...as i said then...does this really comply with continuous disclosure.....so.....whs announcing that 1st 1/4 figures would be out soon meant only one thing...bad news!!!
what i dont really understand..
with the nzd as it is and the nz consumer spending as they have been (continual increase in credit card debt)...why isn't a retailer like whs raking in the money?
people have said
1) whs is handing all nzd "gain" over to the consumer via decreased sale price
2) whs is just selling sh*t so sales will go to people selling "better" imported goods...but with products like "dell" and "shriek"!!!
3) mgmt problem!!!???
im not even including the aust problem in this scenario!!!
my view........
1) broken $4...whs on its way down
wow, that was profound
2) next "problem"...xmas sales
another brainstormer...[|)]
3) if there is any delay...even 1 day..for the announcement of the 6 mth or xmas sales figure..there will be bad news
...and this is something new right:D
4) from previous posts there seems to be a bit of a problem re stock and pricing
as per public ann`s ...yawn
5) not too good coming up to the silly season!!!
incredible depth of insight
6) given the sales trend as announced by 1st 1/4 sales...i cant see 2nd qtr (year on year) being "flash"
...you are truely a master of profound analysis.
7) $2 share price (as per the drop when whs had the stock problem) may not be silly within the next 6 months...sentiment for whs is turning (and as some people have said....you cant prop up the share price forever!!)
so there is finally the prediction...well done, however you are WAY off the mark...$2 eh:D:D:D
downwards is where whs is going...how far it falls no one knows (except phaedrus!!!...he'll tell us about it later!!!)..expect falls in the next couple of days...maybe the 4 day rule will apply here...i wouldn't put my money on it
nice hedge both ways:([xx(]
typical, where were you when WHS was $7.50???
I was WARNING about this 3 years ago. and here you go after the facts with nothing to add but poorly thought out drivle.
What a dorkas for your view ........[:0]Y[:0]A[:0]W[:0]N[:0]
what did you actually say[?][?][?][?][?]
NOTHING
Great criticism C9...have you made any picks lately? What should we be putting our money into?
THE AUSTRALIAN
Page 37 10/11/04
Discount price war warning
Katherine Jimenez
November 10, 2004
FIERCE competition in the $4 billion discount variety market is unlikely to ease next year, with Warehouse Group chief executive Ian Morrice warning yesterday that the retailer would remain aggressive on pricing as it sought to build its brand across Australia.
Unveiling another disappointing sales result, Mr Morrice, who heads the New Zealand parent company The Warehouse Group, said that a competitive market was the "kind of trading environment the Warehouse is best at".
The fundamentals of the retailer's promotional program "always remain the same", he said, dismissing criticism from some of its rivals about the aggressive nature of its price promotions.
Warehouse in Australia fights in the same bargain retail space as Miller's Retail, The Reject Shop, Coles Myer's Kmart chain and Woolworths' Big W stores. Miller's shares fell 4c to $1.24 yesterday, with Reject Shop down 9c to $2.69.
Mr Morrice said Warehouse stores were "set up to be a store where everyone gets a bargain and you can't be a store where everyone gets a bargain if you don't have very strong pricing and aggressive promotions".
In the past few months, he said, its promotional activity remained aggressive but was more focused on categories where Warehouse wanted to be recognised. Those include toys, entertainment, electronics and consumables -- which includes items stretching from lollies to shampoo.
His comments came as the parent company revealed a 2.4 per cent slide in comparable sales in Australia for the 13 weeks to October 31, compared with the previous corresponding quarter.
Top-line sales were flat at $115 million, despite an increase in retail selling space and a major overhaul of the business last year.
The poor sales numbers follow a string of bad financial results over the past four years. Warehouse reported a loss of $32.2 million in the 2003-04 financial year.
The weaker sales result from Australia was not the only black spot in the New Zealand group's overall unaudited sales result. The NZ business known as Red Shed reported a 2.6 per cent drop in comparable sales growth.
Current WHS price is starting to reflect "Where Everyone Gets a Bargain" :)
Not yet but getting there. I think somewhere around $3.30 is fair value assuming Australia is an (on)going concern. 'Course if sentiment turns nasty as opposed to just realistic then the price could go sub $3. I might be crying myself at that point 'cos I'd have probably bought!
THE KING says Dont forget they are CUM DIV 4 cents till Friday, thats NICE... [^][^][^]
Most recentlyQuote:
quote:Originally posted by CAM
Great criticism C9...have you made any picks lately? What should we be putting our money into?
NZX: MHI (from$5), EBO (from low $3,breakout $3.50), RPL (all the way..fm 29-30c)
ASX: NTG (risky but fm 4c-5c) , HWG (fm 11-12c), HWE (most recent fm 67-68c)
money into the ASX stocks with NZD high.
thanks CAM, how about yourself?
I jumped ship recently after being one of these people who had stubbornly held since about $7 in the belief that Aussie would turn around. However I get the feeling now that Oz isn't the only problem and once people like me start jumping then all those Mum and Dads who put their hard earned into this will also decide that enough is enough and take what they can get. Who will buy at the moment though?
I believe that the warehouse was a great company and filled a niche here in NZ but at the moment it is lost, here is hoping that in the future they can turn it back around.
My uneducated pick is for the SP to fall to just above $3, in fact I will go $3.11 by Christmas.
C9 I am probably a dork as well but these are the thoughts on the surface of my mind at the moment. Moved into NOG from here.
Cheers,
MPC
Bongo,
I stuck my neck out on RBD - said it was a dog, admitted I'd f*cked up, and sold my holding.... It still hasn't gone above the price I sold at.
I stuck my neck out on OTI on the ASX - said it wouldn't go where everyone else thought it would, and it didn't.
I stuck my neck out on FAN on the ASX (up over 100% from my initial purchase a year ago).
I stuck my neck out on OCL on the ASX - selling after it had jumped 40% - it then kept climbing, but has since come back somewhat.
I stuck my neck out on ARP on the ASX - and emerged with a face covered in egg [B)] - I sold just before they announced a special dividend and the price shot up by 20%. I did still make a 10% profit though... And I never said the company would not produce consistent returns.
I have stuck my neck out on UOS on the ASX. We will see what happens there.
So anyway, I think my stock-picking record basically kicks yours in the proverbial.
You claim to follow Buffett, yet obviously have not understood the concept of a margin of safety - or the idea that turnarounds seldom turn - or the idea that if you find out you are wrong, you should accept the mistake, sell, and move on to greener pastures.
Buying WHS at upwards of 20x earnings, with small possibility of large profit growth in the next couple of years was simply suicidal!
Much better to buy a company like FAN at 22x earnings (last year) with 50% profit growth the year before, and the likelihood of a further 50% rise the next year (which eventuated).
The reaction to the quarterly sales report was not overdone, because WHS is so fundamentally over-priced. You should not be paying 20x earnings for a company whose profit is dropping!
At 20x earnings, assuming no growth, a company will take 20 years to earn your investment back. That's a 5% annual return. After inflation, thats a 2.5% return! Why not buy government bonds??????????
If WHS did in fact generate 20% growth in profit, year after year, then it would justify a PE of 20.
This simply isn't going to happen. It is too big in NZ, and not competing well enough in Aussie.
The best you can expect from NZ, and I mean maximum upside, is likely to be 10% (annualised) profit growth per year - don't get confused - if WHS profits are down 20% this year, then they will need to increase profit by 60% next year to gain annualised growth of 10% (I think... My math isn't that fantastic, but you get the gist).
So Bongo, you overpaid for a company that is underperforming. Buffett advises people to pay a fair price (or preferably underpay) for superior companies, that continue to produce excellent results.
As soon as you saw WHS heading south (the company, not the share price, the two are distinct) you should have bailed. Same with RBD - although at least with RBD you had more of a margin of safety with it only trading at low PE multiples. That limited your losses.
You should only ever pay 20x earnings for a company that is truly outstanding with large growth potential. Not one that is limited to 10% max upside in its strongest market, and is struggling to compete through an over-ambitious expansion into a new market.
I guess I'm sticking my neck out on this one huh Bongo???
Also,
While I usually don't get along so well with C9 - he did do pretty well for himself on ATR on the ASX... 1000%+ in little over a year... Seems pretty darn good to me...
Personally I only managed about 300% or so... the benefits of getting in early huh? Those are the returns you get when you buy solid companies with large potential for growth trading at significant discounts to the value of their future income streams (their intrinsic value). Still much better value than WHS too - about 8x conservative projections of forward earnings, with growth looking likely into the future....
Its not too late to actually make some money on shares Bongo...
By the way, If you would like, I actually have a personal fund that I manage for some people, Email me if you would like to make a deposit. :)
Well done on SKC - you
It was on the news making a comment that WHS didn't get the killer product last Xmas, the XBox, hence didn't do well and they are hoping for a better Xmas season this time. I think it is unlikely because WHS does not have the killer product this Xmas either. It is no longer XBox. It is iPod this year! [8D][8D] Something much smaller but with a bigger price tag.
Actually TLA87...
you are right about the WB thing
At the time I was warning Bongo AND co of IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE...the WHS was trading on a PE of 30x at its peak.
At one stage it was priced higher than the great WAL!!!!!
which was trading at 29x during the same period.
I was also told by them (incl Gerry) that Cullen would be putting LOTS of $$$$ into WHS, the price would rocket over $8, the stock would split again.....dominate Aussie....then Head of to China, or North America. anyway.
I wouldnt be rubbing it in now if they hadnt been so single minded and rude.
I stuck my neck out and opposed them, and I was definetly in the minority;)
From here, now over 1/2 of its Market cap destroyed...I think $3 will not be broken, let alone $2...however
There is no rush, thats for sure.
They say digital cameras is the big thing this XmasQuote:
quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN
It was on the news making a comment that WHS didn't get the killer product last Xmas, the XBox, hence didn't do well and they are hoping for a better Xmas season this time. I think it is unlikely because WHS does not have the killer product this Xmas either. It is no longer XBox. It is iPod this year! [8D][8D] Something much smaller but with a bigger price tag.
2000 per store is one big pile of digital cameras
Want one ... bargain price
Probably the best thing to do with your WHS shares is sell them now to fund your Xmas cravings!
No matter how you look at this, WHS currently belongs in the sub $3 bracket, life is not going to get any easier for them in the next year and beyond.
Whether it declines to this price is another matter, the market is a weird place at times :) But the downtrend will continue I believe
Plenty of money being spent by the 'poorer' aussies - from Coles sales release
Its discount chains were especially vibrant, with Target's sales from stores at least a year old rising 10 percent to A$702 million, and Kmart up 9 percent to A$905 million.
And WHS Australia hardly moved
Yep, it's on the decline alright. I thought they might turn it around but seems a longer haul than expected. When the dust settles it'll be worth buying I'm sure. Probably going to be a great traders stock till then.
Key king/jester/fool/whatever - what price will your secret cabal settle on now and support ;)
Warehouse gets go ahead for mega Palmerston North store
11.11.2004 1.40 pm
Work on the Warehouse's controversial mega store in Palmerston North is due to start this month after the company received the final go-ahead yesterday.
Independent commissioner Paul Cavanagh yesterday issued a resource consent after two years of challenges from the Railway Land Action Group and -- for part of the time -- Progressive Enterprises, which owns Countdown and Woolworths.
Part of the objections centred on the fact that the land was not offered to anyone but the Warehouse and that there was little, if any, consultation.
The consent Mr Cavanagh issued is non-notifiable, meaning there will be no more consultation or appeals.
Former mayor Mark Bell-Booth and the previous council agreed to the sale of the land in September 2002, but the deal was in limbo until the appeals process was exhausted.
Peter Eathorne, general manager of City Contact, which deals with building permits for the city council, said the commissioner's decision drew a line under a painfully long process.
"It has been quite drawn out, but we are expecting to receive the money ($4 million) by electronic transaction in the next day or two," he said.
"The Warehouse is keen to start work as soon as possible, because it was unable to commence construction until the sale was completed."
Marilyn Bulloch, who led opposition to the sale of the land, was stoic about the decision.
"We are pleased that we fought the battle, but it is sad to see it go, all the same," she said.
"In a way, I blame the previous councils for not doing enough to protect the railway land.
"I guess it was a battle that we would have preferred not to have to fight. When we withdrew our appeal it meant the whole thing could go ahead once the council voted for a zoning change."
That change was voted in July and brought the $4 million sale a step closer.
The city council will be responsible for putting in 156 car parks.
- NZPA
Some good news at least.
Warehouse in QLD Australia does not know anything about competition. Super specials in their mailer are dearer than competitions normal price most of the time.
AGM later this month could be interesting
Wonder if there will be an guidance given then as to how they are really performing ... otherwise March is a long way off
Ironic really - declining losses in Aust but probably declining profits in NZ
THE KING says Dear G...... AS a off the top of the head talker and a NON shareholder of WHS you could DO with more Education untill then its a wast ot time of THE KING to explain some of you stupid Q..
Please DONT start a Verbable Return.. as there will be NO REPLY..
THANKS.. [^][^][^]
Well king I was just hoping you'd explain the two ridiculous statements you made last week. The questions aren't stupid, just a request for you to sunstantiate the things you said while you tried to talk WHS down.
Of course you can't explain then hence the idiotic ramblings and refusal to answr. Oh dear, I feel so uneducated.
In the end WHS have done a better job than you of dropping the shareprice.
I don't have any WHS yet but am always looking for a bargain.
If you post dumb statements about share price fixing then expect to be called. Especially now when your statements look even dumber in light of the recent events.
G.
THE KING says PLEASE read the above REPLY...[^][^][^]
I did - you said you wouldn't reply but you have! Guess there's hope then for you explaining why your mystery investers didn't keep the price up above $4 like you said they were doing.
THE KING says Better read it again THEN... [^][^][^]
Well, this was your patronising post.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by THE KING
THE KING says as it has been explained before this is a CONTROLED stock ther will be NO upside and posible NO downside because of those 19 top twenty people, if the stock dropes they BUY when it rises to balance the books SELL,, thats National Nominees main BIS or you should know is its Sir John Tempelton of Franklins if you dont know you should learn MORE.. [^][^]
Seems to have had an uncontrolled freefall!
If you make unsubstantiated (and obviously incorrect) posts when trying to ramp or depress a share, expect to get called in an open forum.
Ive just been reading brokers commentary on WHS, and despite the disappointing results, they were quite positive about the stock. (report dated 10/11/04 when shareprice @ $4.04)
They should be positively ecstatic now with the new SP ;)
Some big brokers have been extolling WHS all the while the SP has burned.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by kura
Ive just been reading brokers commentary on WHS, and despite the disappointing results, they were quite positive about the stock. (report dated 10/11/04 when shareprice @ $4.04)
Its seems deceitful.
I hope it isn't
With near full employment in NZ and this being where the little people shop surely this is going to turn around and produce enough good profit in NZ to carry the Aussie business until Morrice gets things sorted. Now that it appears to ahve found support I might seriously consider buying into the walmart of the south.
It is all OK on the WHS front ... sometime in the future the shareprice has to go up ... so says Morrice in the paper today
The only things that worries me is all this ongoing investment ... sounds like heaps more to come .. Red Sheds, Blue Sheds, Yellow Sheds, supply chain etc etc.
Over the last 5 years this cash cow has generated $360M of operating cash flows ... but capex has been $400M odd ..... negative free cash flow over last 5 years
But suppose one needs to invest to win over the long term but this long term seems to be an awfully long way away
The NZ Herald
Red alert
13.11.2004 -
Ian Morrice, newly installed chief executive of New Zealand's largest retailer, The Warehouse, is short of time.
Only after much negotiation did the Weekend Herald secure an interview, and then it is to be conducted in two parts. The first will be a 10-minute chat during a photo session at the group's Northcote headquarters.
Two days later the Scottish-born executive would call us from a taxi as he travelled across Sydney. (As it turns out, Morrice, who took the reins at the start of last month, got into work early and called from the Sydney office.)
It is no wonder.
The day of our first encounter, Tuesday, Morrice disclosed that first-quarter, same-store sales at the New Zealand "red sheds" - the engine of profitability - had dipped 2.6 per cent against the same period last year.
The news shocked investors, who instead had been bracing themselves for more bad news from The Warehouse's struggling Australian "yellow sheds". The share price tumbled over the next couple of days to as low as $3.73, a five-year trough. It recovered yesterday to $3.79.
Meanwhile, retail sales figures out yesterday showed that the fall occurred when total New Zealand retail sales rose 2.4 per cent - the highest quarterly rise since the June quarter of 1997.
If anyone should have been growing in such a benign environment, it should be our biggest retailer.
On the day of the figures, The Warehouse blamed the late onset of spring, which hit clothing sales. Meanwhile, customers spent more on fridges, freezers, televisions and furniture, the so-called consumer durables that do not typically figure prominently on the shelves of the 85 red sheds.
Sitting in his second-floor Northcote office overlooking the Waitemata Harbour, Morrice, the former boss of the successful British DIY chain B&Q, looks relaxed despite the pressure. His orange B&Q apron has been exchanged for the obligatory red Warehouse shirt.
He says later from Sydney that he is making the most of his temporary separation from his wife and three children, who are to join him in New Zealand in the new year. "I'm travelling a lot and focusing on understanding the business. I'm enjoying myself."
Morrice is candid about the group's problems. He seemingly pays little heed to the sensibilities of his predecessors, founder Stephen Tindall, who was in control for most of the past year, and Greg Muir, now heading childswear retailer Pumpkin Patch.
Problems linked to The Warehouse's years of rapid growth have come home to roost. The stores have grown haphazardly, making it hard for customers to find what they are looking for.
"I've been in some stores that have been extended four times in five years ... When you get into these big spaces, and our stores are among the biggest in the country, it can be difficult for people to find their way around."
Even the relatively new Albany store, the only one The Warehouse would allow us to photograph inside, suffers from these problems.
Meanwhile, the red sheds are often located away from other shops. This means customers have to make a special trip rather than stopping off when they do their weekly shopping.
"A customer would typically visit their grocery shop three or four times as often as they'd visit The Warehouse."
Morrice is an old hand at developing store format - his first job was as a trainee at British appliance retailer Dixons.
"The format will need to be looked at, not
Interesting article in the Herald this morning however there must be better opportunities in the retail sector. MHI ? HLG?
The problems at WHS are structural - will take years to fix, if at all.
Moving average chart looks sick
moved below 375, will it test a lower resistance level this week?
Disc: none
or in fact lower support :)
No wonder why one of the directors dumped 385,000 shares at $4.10 or thereabouts on the last week of the trading window for insiders (22/10/04)!!!!
definitely not a support level - chart indicates share price will continue to fall
Down side looks like about $3 if that does not hold and the way things are going it might not then a little under $2. One thing is for sure the price is going lower and if there is not a significant announcement like pulling out of AU it’s going to get ugly!!!
Retailers were at each other’s throats last Christmas and now things are much tighter, it's going to be survival of the fittest.
The warehouse will become a bargin for the canny shoppers!!!
Happy investing
Morch :)
THE KING says this is the biggest NZ ever CON.... [^][^][^]
They say 5 year low today at 367 ... or putting it another way the lowest price this century
Wasn't it 5 years ago they had a share split and for your $8.00 share you got 2 at $4.00
And many were asking for another share split when those 2 got to $8.00 again
Just as well they didn't ...that $2.00 share price night have happened
Jeez, a lot can happen over 5 years can't it
What is, your Kingness?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by THE KING
THE KING says this is the biggest NZ ever CON.... [^][^][^]
The king (like me) has BGR, he also has lots of other retail stocks - well disclosed.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by warthog
What is, your Kingness?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by THE KING
THE KING says this is the biggest NZ ever CON.... [^][^][^]
But he doesn't have WHS and he continually talks it down with the most absurd posts. Luckily for him OZ and management are doing a good job of depressing the price anyway.
Still waiting for the jester to respond and support his price fixing allegations...