So thats how i ended up with this portfolio, i thought it was a kinda 6th sense channelled sorta thing ,through all the minds on share trader!?:mellow::D
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So thats how i ended up with this portfolio, i thought it was a kinda 6th sense channelled sorta thing ,through all the minds on share trader!?:mellow::D
That is spooky.
Share price seems to be settling down in low 50s
Going to start going up from here?
Lol , funny of the day so far, thanks:t_up:
Too early to tell?.Vol has tapered away since the big 4 mill spike. Wanting a 2nd carton of shares, watching.Find it very hard to wait until the 60DMA is reached, not my nature:(
Finished up 1.7% today with a steady climb , +91c with a large re 85,000/trade,right at the end of the day to $54.47. Bottom may have been yest ,low $53 but may be more overhang to go yet.
A bit peeved after having my offer in at 53.00 on thursday and being absolutely certain it would be triggered when it got all the way down to 53.01 but somehow it wasn’t to be :(. Hopefully will get my hands on some early next week.
Never put in an order at a whole number, for One thing if it is filled probably means the stock is going even lower, and if it does act as support then you might not get filled which is what happened to you. In this case though I suspect you may not have to wait too long. A real patient Panda would wait a few months.
Thanks for the tips, very helpful.
i have no idea what its going to do in the short term it might go well below 53$ or it might not. I do think on a valuation basis it is looking quite attractive. Not too long till FY results announced and no updates suggest their forecasted 8-10% increase is still on the cards putting them on a pretty low forward P/E ~19 (from memory) for a company of their pedigree seems good value.
To me they have many similarities with Ryman healthcare both with their consistent increasing value and great ROE, great management and industry / tailwinds. It is interesting though, how they differ in the way they grow with Ryman building new villages whereas Ramsay do almost the opposite with their acquisitions and brownfield developments but of course what matters are the results!
Panda ....the 8%-10% is now only 7% (and not good signs for next year)
Did you miss recent announcement?
And how many zillions are they going to write off ...that’s your homework question?
thanks, Winner I had actually missed that latest update as you wisely noticed ;). No impact to cashflows but reasonably large writedowns over onerous lease provisioning. I tried googling what it means but had no luck and can only muster vague guesses so if you guys know please share.
what are your thoughts re. Future writedowns winner?
it does seem like this is just some short term pain and RHC seem to be responding in all the right ways. Surely with an increasing population in Aus and especially in their main cities plus the aging tide and an unwillingness for a lot of spending on new public hospitals by the Turnbull Govt. the pressure must be building and at some point the dam must burst in Ramsays favour.
Less sure about UK but I believe fundamentals should be sound
Yes panda the $125m is non-cash but it was once cash eh. Essentially means that past acquisitions haven't worked out as they though they would ...and some would say they paid too much for them.
Getting a bit of a habit this provisioning ..... didn't the first half have a big restructuring provision as well?
But as long as they keep coming up with this 'Core Net Profit' which ignores the bad things it'll all be OK. We need to trust them eh
'Patient' a good handle / nickname for investing in hospitals .....the gods coud be working in your favour
In spite of JTs ramping I'm being patient ... share price might go into the $40s. Chart looks terrible since the price started declining from $80 odd .....get the odd good signals to suck punters into buying but soon reverts back to its downward trend eh
Pot calling the kettle black there w69, but if you really want a showdown you will get it full bore. Some may notice RHC is a multi billion cap stock on the ASX and not a tiny stock or low liquidity stock that can be pumped;).
Im slowly building a portfolio of investment grade stocks for my retirement and have had RHC on my list for sometime.It has a track record 2nd to none and i believe it will come right , the aus govt needs PH to stick around like an egg needs a carton. Im building a stake and one thing i can agree on, being patient and averaging in is a good tactic. Using KW's simple chart reccos also helpful. A slow burner . not expecting stellar gains on this one. DYOR .
Rule 1: Never buy in a downtrend!!:t_down:
KW had good advice bless her soul - she said “My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MAT”
With both of those MA above $60 not a good time to be buying in?
Maybe need to wait until the MAs fall closer to the current share price
So far so good vol and price wise Rupert...... but early days.Tomorrow may be up/down due to .....
An RHC subsidiary has made a takeover bid which has been rejected atp.RHC offering a fullish price for it, ive read so holders may be relieved about the NO but nervous about a sweeter too.
Ramsay Generale de Sante makes unsolicited bid for Capio AB
The CEO Rex gets paid pretty well
A figure of$86m over the last 2 years is mentioned in this report
https://www.acsi.org.au/images/stori...2017.Jul18.pdf
aargh, thats pretty horrendous!:scared: Seems snoutish doesn't it. Even for an $11 Billion mkt cap company which has performed incredibly well with 10% + returns until this year and s/p re $10, 10 years ago now $55 plus ,was $80 not long ago . Dont know if Rex has been there that long. Its all out of my knowledge how they justify and set salaries and bonuses seem a rort and terminal payoffs after inflicting damage to the company is incendiary to me. Good article thanks w69.
From The Australian
Private health insurance statistics released by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority show that another 57,512 Australians ditched hospital cover in the June quarter.
By the end of June, only 45.1 per cent of the population had hospital cover — the lowest level in eight years.
Morgan Stanley analysts said the fact members continue to leave the private health insurance industry would likely reinforce falling volume trends in hospitals.
The analysts said that trend highlighted a risk to expectations for Ramsay Health Care’s fiscal 2019 earnings per share.
Morgan Stanley said the recent data had increased its conviction that Ramsay’s fiscal 2019 EPS growth would be flat at best, with around a 10 per cent in fall in the share price to around $50. Shares in Ramsay are trading around $55.80.
Health insurance cover now 45.5% from a peak of 47.4% in 2015 , a 4% decline for context. It does appear to be at the wrong end of the cycle. The govt cant afford to let companies like RHC fail though so some incentives need to be offered. Heres another research note agreeing the short term not so good.
How cheap is too cheap?
Thursday, June 21st, 2018
Ramsay Health Care shares were battered to 52-week lows recently by capitulation selling in response to a negative broker report. It’s been a tough two years for shareholders in the former market darling, whose shares have trended lower from a peak over $84 in September 2016 to below $60 today. The resignation of the former popular and highly regarded CEO was followed by two lower-quality earnings results, vocal short-selling and calls by analysts for the premium earnings multiple to de-rate. The stock is now well out of favour.
Given Ramsay’s earlier record of growth and investment quality, value investors will be asking if this is an opportunity. We think it is, but only on a three-year view and there could be more downside yet. Weighing growth, capital management and risk Ramsay is currently worth around $60 – not much more than current prices. Near-term, the stock could drift lower if the market decides the 19 times multiple on forward consensus earnings is too high for a stock with single-digit growth.
Ramsay is often described as a go-to play on population ageing given surgery and hospital-delivered interventions for the baby boomers are set to grow as this cohort ages. The central problem for shareholders today however is the Australian growth curve from ageing is two years away and meanwhile Ramsay is caught in a marked cyclical and structural slowdown in private hospital admissions. Meanwhile the French and UK operations, which together contribute some 20 per cent of operating earnings, are ex-growth. The interim result reported in February missed market expectations on revenue and only just met guidance due to lower tax and interest expense than expected.
Investors still acknowledge Ramsay for its operational quality and clinical excellence, which are crucial to attracting doctors and patients. For this reason, its scale and the superior locations of the group’s Australian hospitals, Ramsay attracts a more profitable casemix than peers and has taken market share over time.
It can probably continue to do so but even Ramsay can’t fight the slowdown in private hospital industry volume growth from seven per cent per annum 10 years ago to 2.8 per cent this year. Australians are turning their backs on private health insurance and private healthcare, due mainly to declining affordability. Over the last five years private health insurance premiums compounded at 5.8 per cent per annum, faster than average wage growth of around two per cent. Awareness of the high out-of-pocket costs of surgery and accommodation in private hospitals has grown.
Hospital private health insurance coverage is down to 45.5 per cent from a recent peak of 47.4 per cent in the March quarter of 2015. Exclusions within policies are more popular, causing some insureds not to be covered for all surgeries. The resulting increase in high-end surgeries in the public sector is one main reason for the deterioration in casemix for private hospitals. We do not expect the federal government’s October 2017 reforms to private health insurance (gold, silver, bronze and basic policies from April 2019) will materially reduce the trends away from membership and towards more exclusionary policies. There is also no broad acceleration in wages underway to restore the affordability of membership.
Consumers who kept their private health policies are increasingly using them for admission to public hospitals, which cover more costs than private hospitals including policy excesses. Public hospitals have incentives to pursue private business because it shifts costs from the states/territories back to the Commonwealth, which so far has not introduced policies to limit the shift of private patients into public hospitals.
Healthcare services stocks always carry elevated political/legislative risk given intensive regulation. While we do not expect the federal opposition, if elected, would remove or further dilute the private health insurance rebate, its policy to cap growth in premiums at two per cent per annum for two years would almost certainly damage private hospital profitability by reducing contracted payments from insurers while costs keep rising regardless. The sharemarket is already starting to price in this risk given the opposition is competitive in the polls. The policy probably wouldn’t increase private health insurance membership given funds would respond with more exclusions, higher excesses and greater co-payments.
Meanwhile, Ramsay’s acquisitions in the UK and France remain unproven. Tariff cuts and disappointing volume growth have forced the company to bolster earnings by cutting costs.
Having considered this gloomy bear case, investors now need to ask if it is fully priced in by the fall in the share price. As long as the government is returned at the next election, we consider Ramsay is worth $60 per share and would be oversold at $54, where the forward earnings multiple would be too low at 17 times.
It is also important to stand aside from the gloom and ask if the consensus earnings downgrades have now ended. Large-cap stocks like Ramsay are intensively researched and react quickly to changing perceptions of earnings fundamentals. While the stock is not about to return to its glory days of double-digit earnings growth, and profitability will fall due to less operating leverage from slower growth in Australia, we do think tariffs in France and the UK have bottomed. There was a 0.75 per cent average tariff increase in the UK in April and French President Macron has said he will not seek further cost savings from the healthcare sector over the next four years. The UK National Health Service’s demand management strategies, which inflate surgery waiting lists, are also unsustainable. All this means probably no further downgrades to earnings forecasts for Ramsay’s European operations and adds to the case the share price is within a few dollars of bottoming. We would see further weakness from downgrades to forecasts for Ramsay’s Australian business as an opportunity.
Clime Group owns shares in RHC.
https://www.clime.com.au/investing-...mail&utm_campaign=ir-210618&utm_content=title
RHC's takeover offer stymied. S/P up tomorrow in a relief rally?
News: RHC Swedish healthcare firm Capio to sell French business to Vivalto Sante
Forecast eps growth +2% for F19 not that great
RHC at a 6 -7 month high vol looking good too up re 10% since december , a defensive global stock..
Global industry growth fundamentals, check the stats here!!!
The number of people aged over 65 has increased to more than 656 million, or 11.5% of the total population
Globally, chronic disease prevalence is growing quickly, most prominently, cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. 415M diabetics in 2018 expected to increase to 642M by 2040.
Depression is the leading cause of ill health and disability worldwide. More than 300 million people are now living with depression, an increase of more than 18% between 2005 and 2015
Last presentation in novManaging Directors Presentation to the 2018 AGM
Joshuatree are u entering comp - close in hours
Hit $65 today :t_up: on reassuring results, through a difficult period, nearly every figure is up and the outlook for that 2% increase in EPS , mkt applauds.60DMA has shot through 180 DMA
Download Document 181.04KB
A$79.35 today re a 39% gain in one year, eat that :t_up:
Why is Ramsay being smacked particularly hard today? Are hospitals not a good thing in an epidemic?
Tide is taking pretty well everything out on these big panic sell days. Hope to top up at some point
Download Document 1.65MB An analyst i rate likes the result.
Any ideas on the trading halt?
Capital raising at $45.00 SPP $30,000.
A$56.00. Unfortunately have missed out on the $1,200 mill placement, have to be a "Wholesale" Investor or Insto. So $200 mill to scrap over, will be hugely diluted imo. Have applied for the full $30 k.
Download Document 396.24KB
Looks like my holdings will be increased by a third. RHC extended the raise from $200 to $ 300 mill but scale back pro rata. Hope to add more later in the year if/when the recession really starts to bite.
Ramsay Health Care Completes Share Purchase Plan 2 pages 451.3KB
Sold a little while ago , building cash for other investments.Been an ok park and ride.Up re 25% today on takeover offer.Sa la vie
https://hotcopper.com.au/documentemb...Vx%2FLFiGug%3D