http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...358/322800.pdf
Very pleased they are able to maintain their dividend for FY21. That's a rare thing these days and underscores the resilience of their business.
Printable View
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...358/322800.pdf
Very pleased they are able to maintain their dividend for FY21. That's a rare thing these days and underscores the resilience of their business.
I might have bought yours!
Grabbed a few on Monday... Held these a few years ago and probably wished I held on to them.
Back in now and will quietly park them in the bottom drawer.. Will grab some more on any price weakness over the next year or so.
Sometimes the companies that are a little boring and fly under the radar are the way to go!
Did not buy enough......was afraid they would capital raise....but we'll...happy holder ..not be greedy
Took all profits and GGT and PCT and rolled them into ARG. we will see later in few years if it was the right call.
Been buying a position for the last month for an Ave buy price of 96c. Pleasing result
I notice recent syndicate ads tout returns of under 6% recently. It would be an interesting call to invest in a single second rate asset with no exit strategy and weaker legislation (eg reporting) cover when you can buy into ARG for over 8% with better risk spread, governance and and liquidity. Perhaps the monthly payout is enough to lure people in...
They looked relatively attractive a few months ago, not now though the listed property companies are trading at such a discount.
A lot of elderly people don't like or understand shares. They see an advertisement in the newspaper for syndicated commercial property with a pretty picture and a promise of 6% return paid monthly and they need the income and they compare it to the 2.5% on term deposit available with the bank and they think, property has been good to me and 6% is more than twice the income, that'll do me. Often that's all the thinking that goes into it, which is pretty sad.
Absolutely loving this one as sold GMT and PCT profit and rolled heavily into this ....
Yeah, sadly its often the promotors that do the best from these small syndicated property deals.
I topped up with some more ARG today. 5.34% net as a PIE fund = 8% gross for taxpayers on a 33% tax rate. Company is confident of its ability to pay that going forward and term deposit rates for one year are now less than 2% at most banks, less tax.
NTA is $1.30 and I think the current price fairly reflects the risk of tenant defaults and support required.
Not sure if this is the right place to ask:
I bought second ARG parcel on 5 June and settled on 9 June. Record date is 10 June. Why am I not entitled to the dividend on this second parcel?
You are entitled to it. Check your dividend statement which you should have by now and if its not correct take the matter up with the registry at computershare.
Sometimes the parcels dont get registered. I had this problem recently for KMD and the broker made up the difference due to time frames and the registry. Also some reporting from some brokers no longer have the order no in the reports as we had software that tracked the order no.
Yes thank you, you are right. The broker, Directbroking has paid the dividend instead.
This one solders along quietly, up 4 cents today off the back of news of directors accumulating for the second time this month.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...734/326913.pdf
i hope so, wonderful term deposit replacement.
I think that's hits the nail well and truly directly on the head.
I attended the annual meeting at the RNZYS at Westhaven marina this afternoon and struggled to stay awake to be honest. This must be the most boring company I own and so predictable.
One of the few property companies to provide guidance at the same level for the forthcoming year as for the previous year, (lots of talk and excuses from others like KPG and GMT why their dividends have to be cut and caveats regarding future dividends).
Driving home I reached the exact same conclusion as you have. Many people will be like me and have taken a conservative approach to riding out the effects of Covid 19 by selling some shares in February / March and putting the proceeds on term deposit for 4-6 months and will be faced with ~ 1.75% term deposit rollover rates, less tax which for many will mean a net return of just 1.17%.
Or...there's ARG with its 5.0% PIE yield which is non taxable in shareholders hands. There might be another green bond issue later this year, (I asked at the annual meeting), but I think that's likely to be circa 2.5 - 3.0% and that's taxable income in bondholders hands.
Disc: This share bores me to tears...but its good to have something really boring and predictable in your portfolio. I am favourably inclined to add some more when my term deposits mature in the next couple of months. I will not invest in term deposits for a net 1.17% return and accept the OBR risk that goes with that for such a woefully pathetic return that will not even keep up with inflation.
The scones were very fresh but refreshments otherwise were unremarkable. America's cup looks good in its case at the RNZYS. Hope its there this time next year :)
trading back near NTA now. Good run up.
Yes remarkably good considering the reemergence of Covid since my last post above.
Someone looks to have been pretty keen to acquire a good chunk of this at the end of the day's trading...
are very happy to moved into our largest holding in NZ back in April May. If your looking for a defensive stock its starting to do its
1.37! this morning! Everyone holding congratulations for not hitting the panic sell button on wellington and auckland commercial property market.
DISC: Rolled into ARG back in march april from GMT and PCT. Trade this sector and also hold long in fenced trusts. No plans to sell once of our largest holdings in NZX.
Trading at 1.35 (now a little premium to NTA). Note NTA may drop on next results with revaluation but dividend (or yield), paid from cash and sustainable, paid quarterly will make this attractive and therefore share price could even move higher as interest rates go lower. I note most other listed property trusts trade at a larger premium to NTA
FROM MR BEAGLE: and i quote, "This share bores me to tears" yes and to think i was thinking of buying some more in the No 3 portfolio at 2.24 just the other day with an order on the market. Lucky we rolled all our property shares from GMT , PCT and HGH into ARG at 1.17 back in may. This electric train has left the station and is now out pacing OCA by several train stations. Very very happy we took what for us is a good defensive position as i expect this to break new highs next year if we go negative interest rates. The government made a big mistake by not talking to MR O about direct bond treasury purchases backing themselves and him into a corner. He opened the door to the future and the politicians blew it.
Price Closing at 1.39.
very pleased we chose this over OCA as our defensive line in the sand.
I bet those who bought at the lows are now ordering there new electric car.
Awesome to see this being rerated.
Not far of crossing 1.40 mark, this could go a lot further based in interest rates alone
The public is still in denial of the future as far as bank interest rates and hoping for vaccine in january. The effects of the global shut downs will mean low interest rates for years to come is stating the obvious and really ARG is still very undervalued and should be north of 160 already. GMT is still a good trade and attracting investors as industrial south auckland is the place to be for an expanding golden triangle.
The market doesn't seem to be too impressed with today's announcement, unless it's just a spot of profit taking. Almost tempted to top up...
I can't post the link as NZX site not playing ball, but from ASB:
Argosy has announced today that it has unconditionally sold its properties at
960 Great South Road, Auckland for $8.5 million and the Corner of Wakefield
and Taranaki Street, Wellington for $25.0 million.
The sales reflect premiums to book value of 16% and 1% respectively.
share price has been performing pretty well so I see this just as a correction from that as opposed to anything related to the announcement which was broadcast as not price sensitive.
Some order not filled today, 300.000 at 133 for example.
We were hoping to take some more at 1.24 not long ago. We are hoping for a big correction but these sales dont make any difference to the dividend.
Any sell off back to 1/20's will be a HUGE buying opportunity and i dont think we will get it, pitty. Id like another 100,000 at least maybe another 200,000
if we did not have money tied up in the banks and sky city i would want 500,000 more.
Just cant get enough of this stock.
Funny day for the stock actually, came down quite a bit before someone decided they wanted a lot at the end of the day. Manipulation?
Attachment 11907
"manipulation" how? stock go up, stocks go down and sometimes they go sideways...orders at the end of the day loaded by brokers.
MSCI index rebalance at the close.
Long term there are potential headwinds for retail and office space and I think these headwinds need to be kept in mind.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122...stcovid-office
Disc: I recently reduced my stake in ARG and reallocated to GNE for yield, people will always need power. The longer term need for so much office space is less clear.
I still like ARG but I like it less when its materially over its $1.30 NTA. There appears to be overhead resistance at ~ $1.40 and while I acknowledge other property REITS are also trading above NTA the cloud over future office space with this one means I am less confident of a material premium to NTA with ARG.
I acknowledge yield at 4.7% PIE fully tax paid, (effectively 7% gross for a 33% taxpayer), is still very good at $1.35 in this ultra low interest rate world but I have been getting 7.5-8.0% gross yield on recent GNE purchases.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12362591
Big changes coming in the way we work I reckon.
Certainly profit taking in this space will temp some and we did the same for GMT which is still tradable.
But ARG provides a balanced mix across a lot of sectors in the market place and even PCT surprised.
people eventually feel they need to connect face to face and after a year or two at home they will want to go to the office its a social thing as well. Offices will change in design to providing a more social experience as property managers green there offerings including a more sophisticated environment.
The box cubicle solution will fade as i think ARG understand a new type of offering is required and they are moving to that new model of the premium experience.
We havnt put more then 12% into this sector in allocations.
people dont live in tents and there are also lots of changes coming for power companies and i dont see those dividends growing from dams any time soon.
There is unlimited power out there and i think electricity faces just as many challenges in the future although very exciting from new tool to capture and store energy something ARG is very aware of.
You obviously did not sell enough for us to buy more at a discount at say 1.16.
Negative interest rates will explode yield prices is a way that will make the GFC look like a small handle in the charts.
Its already exploded tech in the US and it will come here.
From the Annual report 9( a couple of months ago)
The Board has recently approved small adjustments tothe Investment Policy target bands. By portfolio value,the Industrial target has increased by 5% to 45-55%from 40-50%. The Large Format Retail target hasreduced by 5% to 10-20% from 15-25%. The Officetarget of 30-40% is unchanged
They seem very confident about the next year....
Argosy's property investment strategy is currently listed as:
45-55% Industrial
30-40% Office
10-20% Large Format Retail
It will be interesting to see if this allocation changes in the coming months.
In fact, it will be interesting to see just how the whole "office space" thinking changes in the coming months. I'm in two minds about it - on the one hand, there's certainly numerous articles extolling the virtues; but as Waltzingironman alludes to, there is also the undeniable fact that people do miss the human contact. And yes, there's Zoom and Skype and Microsoft Teams, but they're used for meetings, mostly. What people miss is the casual interactions over a cup of coffee, going out for lunch together, etc. I think this is actually quite a powerful factor.
We shall see whether in the next few years, 2020 is looked back at as a game-changer in the way we worked, or a missed opportunity as we all return to the same old way of doing things, because old habits die hard.
Disc: Small holding, and watching carefully
PS Thanks peat, I hadn't realised the allocations had changed recently.
Risk wise it would be nice to have a purchase price below NTA. As mentioned above yield will drive price now. Office space will be fine long term.
"45-55% Industrial
30-40% Office
10-20% Large Format Retail"
well done to posters thank you which is why we moved back into this well balanced portfolio back in may at about 1.16 but we have been invested in this portfolio on an off for well before the GFC.
"people do miss the human contact" yes people want to see the whites of your eyes to see if your honest in there eyes and committed to them as people. Its a judgement call that face to face is the only way too see this.
In the end its are you along side us as long term customers and can we rely on you as reputable service providers and yes sometimes you have to go play golf or similar. Cant play myself but i am happy to caddy!!! Nothing like seeing a good technique in any style of activity , ballet to golf, fly fishing to surfing..painting to tile making, fixing a building structure..creating efficient energy use in buildings . skill and commitment to excellence is appreciated and best seen face to face.
Yes well balanced and well managed, no question and they seem to have managed the Covid risk situation with their tenants quite well so far but no consideration of ARG would be complete without thinking about the level of tenant defaults if we yo-yo up and down lockdown level's over and over again. No joy on selling the big retail block at Albany yet either.
I am neutral on ARG at this mid 130's level, risks and rewards seem fairly balanced, (would add a few more back at under NTA).
from MR B:
"Yes well balanced and well managed"
Part of a well managed balanced portfolio of stocks and we dont see NZ making the same mistake twice in regard to border controls.
Im thinking less than 25% change of another lock down and onwards and upwards from here.
I expect that site too take several years to sell or more. I could be wrong. I dont expect that to sell until we clear 2022.
No news specials at 1 PM for virus updates tell us that this thing the GV feels is now under control and no one is available to chat to the nation at the fire side , ah lunch break or on your desk at home work site beside the pool as spring breaks and a rosie future looms... well a new future anyway.. look on the bright side.... 2023... bridge the gap...
"https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/107126/economic-climate-has-brought-interest-rates-very-low-levels-and-environment"
come and get some money at 4.5%
1.42! Go you under rated little stock....
Only one ? to have continued paying their full normal dividend throughout Covid gives them a real reputation boost in my opinion. Interest rates headed to zero is also a factor and another reason to see this being well supported going forward. We might even get your $1.60 one day ;)
Disc: Modest sized position.
"1.60 " many thanks! well that would be a very pleasing site indeed...
HLG Under rated... OCA.. asset plan under rated.. im sure many investors have there FAV under rated stock..
getting to keep the 4 and a half mill deposit seems like a useful addition to the cashflow and gain on disposal !
Clear they're pursuing them for damages on top of that amount too.
Interestingly at $1.39 ARG provides a reliable, (even through Covid) 4.58% tax paid PIE yield which for 33% taxpayers = 4.58 / 0.67 = 6.84% gross.
That's pretty decent in a zero interest rate environment.
We may miss out on the big OCA gains and the big HLG DIV and the HM (sweden euro price recovery) but ARG has proven itself the safe haven we thought it would while we made short term gains on KMD and sold GMT but traded.
We though ARG was better then returning money from sales of shares to bank deposits. A lot of people missed this one but should pick up bigger gains in other stock but not all of those pay imputed divs. HLG has a big RIR (retail investor risk) and we just cant put a big number on those types of stocks.
Investors over 50 might be looking to find safe haven portfolios with prehaps only 25% in high risk growth stocks.
ARG lining up to be the next cab off the rank to get 7 year money off the punters at just over 2%. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361276
I see it pushing past $1.50 very soon. Great return over the last few months
DISC: holding in 2 portfolios and will trade in a third holding company.
As my grand father used to say.. (ANZ employee in the 1950-60s) keep your money working.
What a stellar underperformer.
It has been found for many industries overseas you need that office for ramping up the ideas but not 100 percent of the time and you still need to warehouse. Good and services cant fit into small spaces at home or in the garden.
Cloud computing is just the old main frame model on steroids and comes with its own problems. There is nothing better than distributed systems and work spaces to harden the business model.
Our defensive line has held. We could have gone HM sweden but thought the NZ approach would actually be the best because the world was not ready to cope but next time this NZ approach wont be the best model but we though ARG provide the best defence but we could also have and should have gone with FPH as the balance but pivoted KMD and HLG based on GFC performance.
Low risk seeking investors should have rolled into here already.
Some people reckon there's an old proverb that when a company does a bond issue, buy the shares instead which usually get materially rerated. Worked a real treat for people who know the proverb and bought up heaps of OCA at $1.05....might we see a repeat here ?
Bullish for the NZ commercial property sector investor . Getting in now while rates are low. We always buy the equity expecting both DIV and Gain.
pushing up against 150 ... still cheap with money for development cheap as chips..
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361633 A little surprising they didn't take $25m in oversubscriptions too.
2.2% a very low rate though so maybe the demand was for $125m at that rate and if they'd taken oversubs the overall rate in the bookbuild would have been higher.
At their last annual meeting I suggested another bond issue because their weighted average cost of borrowing was just on 4%.
So on the $125m issue at 2.2% there's good cost savings of about $125m x 1.8% per annum = $2,250,000. Not to shabby at all in terms of a cost savings exercise and definitely earnings accretive. Nice to lock that in for 7 years too.
With talk of MMT coming around the world and NZ still back in the old inflation model low interest rates look here to stay as MR B has indicated. NZ government Bonds sold into markets at low rates also indicating low rates are here for an extended period of time.
Property has exploded beyond political control.
Little pull back, my order got hit at close for 1.39. Still should see 1.50-1.60 medium term purely based on search for yield. I keep getting an advertisement for a Jasper forecast 6% industrial fund that's getting started. This will be unlisted(illiquid), narrow tenant exposure, buildings require work, much less diversification, lower grade commercial building exposure so that 6% yield has much more risk attached. Pretty easy decision when you compare these advertised syndicates/funds to Argosy to just buy more ARG. Recent industrial land aquired gives potential redevelopment and growth going forward. I suspect ARG is currently trading right near NTA, but will be interesting to see when their new valuations come through.
Yeah I get those. Gearing is 45%, slightly high at any environment let alone these troubled times. To get to 6% payout, likelihood is they are buying second rate properties the larger LPTs are flogging off while they can, at unexpectedly high prices. That isnt to say it will end in tears, might turn out very profitable but Jasper? Never heard of them. I imagine they will enjoy the ticket clipping. Personally I'd prefer to pay a small premium for quality/listed/transparent LPTs for the next few years.
ARG is simply unless the forum can inform us otherwise, a class act and very investable.
We are from a family of lawyers, bank staff and and an accountant. There is nothing boring about this wonderful investment. As it turned out we should have sunk over 40% allocation. We are under invested in this wonderful stock. Posting of the forum of Term deposit holders talking to banks and about not renewing there TD's. That is big news!!!! Bigger than any election as far as im concerned.
yes it did find support at the 30 day moving average.
I think momentum is slowing a bit. but still hold.
I meant boring in a kind way. They just keep on keeping on chucking out tax free PIE dividends every quarter no matter what at 4.45% (much higher yield based on my average price), which works out to 6.6% gross for those on a 33% tax rate. Compares very favorably with other REIT's in terms of yield and makes 0.9% per annum on term deposit look like a really stupid idea. You can sleep really well with some of these puppies in your portfolio is what I meant by the term of endearment, "boring".
We believe that MR B's numbers make the stock EXCITING in a time of uncertainty!
Absolutely, though timing is important. much more fun to buy them around (or below) $1 per share ... and I would not be surprised if they get there at some stage again ...
Attachment 12064
Managed to buy at $1.04 mid April and very happy with this stock. One of the best real estate investments you can make in these times in my opinion and a long term hold.
looks like it found its mojomentum this arvo!
Arg moving higher, great stock great returns considering it's very low risk nature
Is it really low risk? Sure, they still will be around in a decade and keep paying a dividend - however - SP was eight months ago around $1 ... and there is nothing stopping it to have another dip if & when the recession starts biting. Renting out offices and warehouses won't turn them into the next XRO or Amazon of real estate.
What is the up potential? You think another doubling of the share price is likely? I doubt it.
What is the down potential? Could SP drop to half? Well, they have been there 8 months ago ...
So, yes, good company and sure, NZ might be able to avoid the worst of the recession if we play our hand as "Switzerland of the South" really well.
However - there are always risks in a global storm. Personally I prefer to park my money at that stage into ventures with more up and less down potential.
Thanks for your comments - my bull case is Low debt, diversified, good yield. Cashflow every month. I would be interested in you top picks with more upside than downside
Not sure I have time to list them all (and sort of off-subject), but some examples would be e.g. OCA (I go here with Beagle & Mav), INA, CDI - a small property developer trading well below NTA, solid and consistent performer like MFT, PPH, various agricultural (and currently downtrodden) stocks including ATM and SML.
Anyway ... not saying ARG is bad, just feels currently a bit dear. I used to love to buy them around $1 and depending on how NZ Inc comes through the next crisis we well might get there again - or not - this is my risk :):
Yeah agree, I still see arg a lot lower risk then all of those, other than main freight. I'd say arg is at fair value but could move towards 1.60 simply based on where the OCR is heading. I'm very familiar with CDI and have owned previously and own a smaller parcel, a real value play with property on the books at purchase price rather than developed/appreciated price. No debt and plenty of cash. However it is illiquid and more importantly is controlled by MCK and there overseas owners. The big question is will it actually ever realise it's true value and trade towards what is probably worth? Possibly not with it's large holders who I'm sure see it more as a private business and are not to worries where the shareprice sits, reasonable dividend in the mean time though.
Buy more pre results or afterwards? Seems to be holding well mid 140s
This is not getting any attention
Argosy Property Limited (‘Argosy’ or the ‘Company’) has reported its results for the 6 months to 30 September 2020.
Key highlights for the period include:
• Net distributable income up 21.5%;
• Net distributable income per share up 21.2%;
• Robust portfolio metrics maintained with high occupancy (99.4%) and WALT (5.7 years);
• Strong portfolio leasing and rent review outcomes, including 3.8% annualised rent growth on rents reviewed;
• An unrealised revaluation gain of $79.8 million, an increase of 4.3% on book value;
• An increase in net tangible assets per share (NTA) to $1.41 from $1.30 at 31 March 2020;
• Strong delivery on key strategy focus areas including minimising Covid-19’s impact on the business, the continued focus on sustainability and green developments and executing on capital management initiatives;
• Argosy’s FY21 dividend guidance increased to 6.45 cents per share, reflecting continued sound delivery of strategy.
Very solid result ! I'm very impressed.
Nah - companies making money are boring. Real punters go for loss making ventures like AIR :):
Anyway - results look much better than I expected after the Covid down turn. Respect. Still not sure how much more headspace the SP will have - I do expect the industry to go through some changes over the coming years. Less need for big office spaces and probably less need for big warehouses with huge parking spaces in front of them as well.
AND WHAT DOES MR B think now!
the only stock that has performed better than this is HLG , MFT EBOS and a few others and our new travel stocks which is not NZX.
But for a boring old building stock it has been outstanding performance from an NZX company.
in a low interest world, SP should be a lot lot higher. Far better than the bank.
GMT has increased space and has it leased out. NZ is a country that is not going to get smaller but actually people will be lining up to invest and have NZ as a shelter from the MADENING CROWD.
See post #181 above. Happy holder. NTA now $1.41 and I believe this represents very sound value in this sector. It wouldn't surprise me to see this in the $1.50-$1.60 range in due course. I'd be happy to accumulate more at NTA if the opportunity presents.
Many thanks for your comments.
$1.50
Let's do this!
we believe MR B is a market mover.. the 4 investible players in the property market would have to be ARG, GMT , KPG and possible PCT.
modest run up in share price certainly shows the increasing demand for returns where banks are offering nothing much!
ARG chart looking a bit sad
Current price below most Moving Averages
Even the Pretty Good Oscillator has warning signs
Must be time to buy
the 10 year will weight on all comp prop assets until it doesnt.
The high is in for the next 2 years until inflation abates.
NZ doesnt have an infrastructure bill coming, its got a consumption debt bill that the government is carrying for you the tax payer.
KPG looks to be the under valued stock in this sector.
Big chart support at 130-140 for this stock.
Holding up well at 143.
End of financial year which means we get a holiday this week after successful financial transaction processing runs.
Wonder what Mr B thinking is of ARG going forward? Of course after the protests from the proles over OCA he might not be as informative going forward and i cant blame him.
Good support today on ARG and KPG.
Doesn’t end well does it, like nothing Orwell said, all bad. ARG on the other hand should do ok. If one talks in sonnets and cryptics with grammar barely decipherable, grandiosing some while pillorying others, the end is nigh, for them. Seen them come and go over and over. Time wounds all heels.
"Time wounds all heels"
What a great quote.
Doesn’t end well does it, like nothing Orwell said, all bad. ARG on the other hand should do ok. "
since i barely look at my keyboards my GAMMA is the worst here by far.
But then i use this an opportunity to see if something hits the screen.
this banning thing is a bit of worry.
Kip looks to be the most undervalued in this sector. We stand to be corrected on this as we are not experts on NZ commercial property.
If MR B stays in business we might have something for him to play with.
Since studying french i have had to actually look at the english language.
My first language is a macro statement language i created about 20 year ago because geeks keep stuffing my programs with cryptic symbols i dont always need.
I used it so much i almost forgot how to write english all together.
Arg suddenly moved higher this afternoon after it's been trading at nta for a while, possibly it was being manipulated over the last few weeks for accumulation.