Thanks JT.
Three months lock-up borders on re-defining the meaning of the term.
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Thanks JT.
Three months lock-up borders on re-defining the meaning of the term.
Shocking!
Who advised these guys?! They must have known that no forecasts, no lock up, and a greedy price range would be too much to shove down punters' throats in one sitting.
Hirepool Hirepool Hirerionool Hirerion Orion
Here's a new term ....
"Discount to IPO"
BB:)
I am curious regarding the question of whether this issue is underwritten ? If so I suspect the underwriters might be the ones to call force majeure...they usually have these sort of clauses in the agreement to avoid getting an absolute pasting.
The word 'underwr*' (underwriter, underwritten etc) doesn't appear in the investment statement.
I have applied for a few! Expecting significant scaling!
The 3 months escrow is only for Pioneer Capital (10% shareholder). Another large shareholder, G A Cumming, is holding on for 12 months from listing date. McCrae, Directors and Senior Management are holding on at least until the release of 30 Sept 2015 half year results.
It's that Joshua (hopefully) and others pay good money to get these insights.
You could get them as well .... http://www.stockmarket.co.nz/mastart.htm
(I not subscriber)
FNZC just reminded me of the closing date for expressions of interest in this.
Low interest?
So, I'm keen to see if people have been going for the IPO and a few more reasons to invest. My posts were starting to border on the evangelical against investing in Orion Health, so I'm hoping to see a bit more of the other side of the coin. Anyone go for this IPO?
I have been running hot and cold on this IPO.
To be fair on my broker I rang him a short time ago and told him I did not want to proceed.
He thanked me as he had to bid this afternoon.
The irony of very few (here atleast) showing invest is that it will probably be priced at the bottom to the range, which makes it much more attractive.
If it does, I may call my broker and ask to be put on the waiting list in cae someone pulls out.
Book build is today and tomorrow so we should know the price by Friday night. Applications from Monday but (I assume) will will have to have pre-ordered an allocation from your broker as there is no public pool.
NBR is reporting it is 9x over subscribed!: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/heavy-s...es-db-p-165027
I am with ASB, so not hopeful of getting many. For my wife I did express interest with Craigs but have not heard from them!
IN a few years time if the media start running stories of goldie oldies that have lost all their money by investing in tech ipo's - i will deadset laugh my ass off.
This is finance companies v2.0
Orion is actually a good company, but I can't see the returns the demand/price range is implying.
Yep, couldn't agree more. Their sales growth is hardly what you'd call stellar and apparently having conservative projections and actually growing EPS doesn't count for anything anymore.
All something needs is a couple of magic words like "healthcare" and "software" and its off too the races.
I can think of one company that's growing real EPS at the same rate that this company is growing sales and it sells on a PE of 11...not in the magic sector so it doesn't count apparently...(casts a wistful glance as his old abacus, shrugs shoulders and wonders how the world got so bloody crazy)
As long as they don't start lending to mickey mouse software companies running at a huge loss we'll be all good :D Not well enough positioned, my freshly polished crystal ball is now telling the same story as W69 for 2015 and even has profit in the early 60's m for 2016 !!
Take some of the pimpled faced journos out to lunch, wine and dine them and they will write anything you want them to.
That's how some of them wrote wonderful stories about the finance companies and of some of the characters.
Likewise now, the tech sector.
Already millions of dollars have been lost on Xero, GeoP, Serko etc etc.
But the media desperately needs their advertising revenues, see?
Sign of the times :
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/david-k...us-tech-164983
I can't wait !
For those who couldn't view the paid NBR content here is a Herald article talking about demand
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ectid=11354405
Shares are priced at $5.70. Highway robbery IMO.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...priced-at-5-70
Consistent with the current bull cycle. People are afraid to miss out and seem to be happy to pay for something which is not even a promise (no forecast). Might develop into Gentrack Mark 2. Shall wait for the dust to clear, I am pretty sure there will be opportunities to buy in below IPO price. The only question for me is when.
Let's wish Orion Health well - NZ needs more companies like Orion for the generation of graduates coming through for inspiration.
Yep, well done Orion. too rich for my blood.
update: ASB Securities has not managed to get any allocation for Orion Health
The tech world has gone mad, enough said.
Yey & I've got all the shares I wanted and exceptionally strong institutional support.Congrats to all in Orion Health
:t_up:
How did you manage that? Ive been told I'm likely to be scaled back considerably.
Will be interesting to see how this goes when trading begins. Serko also had strong insto and retail support but flummoxed badly upon listing.
I remember I got scaled back 40% in SKO even with just a small allocation
Madness ? Time will tell.Their target client market is HUGE
Pro
- Healthcare
- Patient health management
- Preventative medicine
- High client retention rate
- Saas
- Implementation aids in reducing healthcare costs by up to 30 % ?
- Genomics & research on its big data analytic's and predictive modelling software.
- For predictive and preventive medicine and likely for treatment of conditions in the future ?
- First starter momentum advantage in their field particularly in USA (Microsoft even "gifted " the software they had developed to Orion Health.Hopefully not because they couldn't see how to make money out of it)
- Experienced management in their field with skin in the game
- Will be tightly held after listing with high over subscription at IPO due to institutional support ? Little public investor support could be an advantage.
- Likely will list well as will be included in NZX 50 ? Potential for other indices?
- Turnover growth curve could easily accelerate (exponentially?)
Con
- Competitors starting to get organised ?
- How long before profitable ?
- Will need more capital ? They have done pretty well up to now at financing their needs through own cash flow up to now.This is likely to change with their recent recruitment taking employee numbers from 600 ? to 1100 ? this year ?
September quarter inflows to Kiwisaver funds were $1.4 billion.
If Kiwisaver funds dont pay over the odds to get new listings, they wont attract more listings which they desperately need. If money isnt invested in NZ, the managers have to pay offshore funds to manage the money, which reduces returns to the NZ managers. This is a once in a lifetime gravy train for fund managers and they are going to take it for all its worth.
Please see this flood of tech listings for what it is, these companies arent that great (some are ok) and dont justify their values, however NZSX needs more market cap to pay for the fund managers new Ferrari/Herne Bay villa.
FWIW I got some Orion shares - dont know my allocation yet - if govt wont regulate this kiwisaver gravy train, then I'm going to catch the ride.
I've been agonising over getting some of these after having been a wee bit burnt with Serko. In the end I have decided not to proceed.
My rationale was based largely on the following table:
Market Cap Revenue Ratio
Orion 950 156 6.08974359
F&P 2990 623 4.799357945
DEL 471 222 2.121621622
SKY 2450 909 2.695269527
Steel Tube 262 442 0.592760181
PGW 348 1200 0.29
HNZ 482 122 3.950819672
WHS 1090 2650 0.411320755
Briscoes 623 483 1.289855072
Yes....I guess it is somewhat crude....and does not take into account profit etc etc.
But I'd be interested in what other folk thought about considering this ratio? For instance, PGW seems pretty low. This seems to mean that if buying PGW at current price, one would be getting a lot more revenue per dollar, than say F&P. And then one would have to consider margins etc. Bed time....made my decision. Good luck to whoever picks up my Orion ones. They will probably go like a rocket now.
Cheers
RTM
PS Hate this editor....table looked fine on my screen.
Market cap to revenue ratio is of some use in my opinion in that it gives an insight into possible extra profitability if there's some margin expansion.
Companies like AIR and PGW trade on very thin margins but if there's scope for improvement as I believe there is then there's potential for significant EPS increases.
The ratio is often called the price to sales ratio.p/s
I think it is best used when comparing companies in the same sector.
I have found it a very useful tool.
James Cornell of Securities Research Company uses it in his newsletter "Market Analysis."Joshuatree did quote Cornell's excellent article on this thread post #99.You can read old issues on line,so you can see the p/s ratios for a number of companies.
National Business Review: "Telstra spends $20 million for 2% of Orion Health in IPO bookbuild"
First NZ Capital scaled back two third for clients who wanted to buy at $5.70. Expect a further surprise when Orion lists in 2 weeks time.
Link to Telstra purchase
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11357959
Also curious what you're referring too?
Oh I though he was referring to something different, my apologies. Agreed, and given all the positive press one would suspect they will be both strong insto buy and retail buying come 26 Nov.
I think I'm slowly starting to understand the story now. I recommend readers have a listen to this.
http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/busines...nities-048.mp3
Thanks Noodles for posting the podcast & I'm pleased you're starting to understand the story.If Orion can execute the big data analysis,genomics & preventative medicine capabilities it will be close to the Holy Grail of Health Care IMHO.For patients safety and health buget savings by avoiding health test duplication its a big yes from me
Interesting podcast - cheers.
Yes, there are huge opportunities in the health market, and if OHE remains the only company in the world to explore them, than no doubt the current SP is fully justified.
Just wondering however, whether they have really that much specific IP and knowledge that it is impossible for others to jump on the bandwagon? If they do, than there is as well the risk that governments and insurances might as well go with the (local / bigger / better known to the purchaser) supplier.
Even if we assume for a moment that OHE are the best .... just looking at past big IT projects ... did New Zealand always pick the most capable and knowledgeable software provider or did we go instead with whoever managed to best pull the wool over our bureaucrats eyes (remember INCIS, Novopay)?
Wishing OHE all the best, and certainly a business worthwhile to invest in (at the right price), but in my view does the current SP not adequately reflect the risks which are in this business.
However - great if it works out, I would like to see more successful New Zealand Export business.
Remember Orion started 20 years ago developing their software and predominately used their own cash flow to finance this development.This is no mean feat IMHO They aren't some one hit wonder/Novapay debacle again !
They now have operations in 26 countries with the major users being in the USA.I would imagine it would be the hardest sell/critical in the USA than any other country in the world.Their is no way it would be able to pull the wool over anyone's eyes there!Even in Turkey ,I would suggest one of the most least likely countries in the world,a new hospital is implementing the Orion Healthcare fully integrated software system.
Yes there are other Hospital /patient software providers but why has Orion Health just carried out this IPO? I strongly suspect to keep well ahead of the pack in developing and integrating big data analysis, genomics and preventive medicine.This IS THE FUTURE OF HEALTHCARE ! Yes sales and profitability is likely to be lumpy within the next 5-6 years BUT what is it going to be like by the year 2020 ?
Some investors may question why its capitalized so high compared to PEB & Xero.I suggest it is capitalized so much higher because of Orion Health's sales record and the potential in the future growth IF they implement right
RISK/REWARD
I think you misunderstood what I wanted to say (maybe I was not clear in expressing myself?). What I meant was that even if we assume that OHE are the best (which may or may not be true), many customers have no good track record in picking the best, but pick instead software providers for reasons which have nothing to do with their particular capability in performing a specific job (which, admittedly, is not always easy to assess).
What I wanted to say is - even if OHE are the best health software solutions provider, than this might not be good enough to get them all the customers they want (due to customers looking for other qualities).
Re Risk / reward ... yes, I see what you mean. It just appears that we might have a different view of either the size of the risks or alternatively of the potential of rewards (or both). Anyway - no matter how this works out, we will never know who was right :), however we will see who's perception is prevailing in the market ... and honestly, I don't know which way this will go, though I'd expect a curve similar to XRO, PEB or DIL shaped. Just not sure at which point in the curve we are at current ;).
Gentrack and DIL are probably better comparisons given all three are well established in their respective market. I think Orion looks expensive compared to DIL.
I was never going to get a good allocation (Im with ASB who apparently didn't get any) so I haven't researched in much detail. I will re-investigate once the dust settles as due to the oversubscribed nature, I expect a nice opening day bonus for those lucky to get in.
Fair enough BP .I see you are from CC.The District Health Board /Hospital use the Orion Health Software.I haven't first hand knowledge how they are finding it.It would be interesting to know.Does anyone have first hand knowledge how it is performing there ? I suggest for Health Providers and Hospitals this type of software is/will be a must have for client safety reasons
As far as the potential market is Orion's is $US 50 billion and growing. XRO,PEB,DIL potential market is ???
How are the 4 of them positioned relative to their markets ???
If Orion Health have the resources(information,finances,personal) and can implement what they intend to do I suggest they will be well ahead of their competitors.A MUST HAVE in a $ US 50 billion industry
Where as XRO competitors are Inuit,MYOB,Sage etc and XRO don't have a dominant market position in USA in particular and with the financial resources of Inuit and their other competitors they won't give up too easily. Xero may win in the small medium business and in the personal financial accounting.
PEB roadblocks are getting clinicians to know the test is available firstly and then have the confidence to use the test when peoples lives are at stake.No mean feat.If it is good enough it will still take a while to get sales traction and likely may require a capital raising when the share price is depressed ???
DIL more likely to be better positioned in their target markets relative to their competitors and are getting multinational recognition similar to ORION Health
Only time will tell which trajectory each of them will take but I don't mind following the lead of Microsoft(relinquishing the software they had developed to Orion Health for nicks ,Milford Asset Management ,Telstra and Institutional Investors
Some "light reading' for those interested.BP it is definitely NOT another NOVAPAY !A
http://www.orionhealth.com/uk/images...hite_Paper.pdf
Some "light reading' for those interested.BP it is definitely NOT another NOVAPAY !A
http://www.orionhealth.com/uk/images...hite_Paper.pdf
kia ora Kiora (sorry, I couldn't resist ...),
just for the record ... I never said or implied that they would deliver anything comparable to NOVAPAY's quality. I said that it is not unheard of that customers are picking cr***y systems like Novapay or INCIS instead of picking systems provided by good suppliers.
However - I am not sure, whether I would dare to draw based on the 6 page white paper you are pointing to (and which is written by OHE itself) any conclusion about their capabilities and / or the quality of what they deliver. It just tells us, that they want to play in that space - and we know that already.
A white paper is basically a sales brochure, typically produced by the marketing department of the seller. If you want to provide some evidence for the capabilities of any organisation, than you should point to independent and peer reviewed research or independent tests instead of to a sales brochure.
Sure do they say in the white paper that they know what they do - but they would do that, wouldn't they?
Listing 26-11-14
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/telstra...uild-bd-165290
I,m thinking $6.80 by February.Any one else hazarding a guess ? :)
There will be a honeymoon period,
BB
No guess but got a small allocation from a tame broker. Would think if allocations were less than 25% of the applications, then going to be some demand and some inclusion in various indices etc, meaning demand from various institutions.
Will be a male deer..........
I guess a much more interesting question than what the price will be in February (still in the middle of the staging season) would be what the share is worth in two or three years from now. I expect the DIL / WYN / XRO/ PEB shaped hump, however with the price at that stage being below todays IPO price. How much below? Well, this will depend on how good (or bad) the coming results will be.
Obviously - if you expect everything to go 100% to plan, and if you expect them to keep even the promises they never made, than the share price will follow the exponential "hockey stick" (until they run out of puff) :)
I did get most of what I asked for and I will add. Happy to hold for sometime.
My projections are
Feb 2015 $6.8
Feb 2016 $10
Feb 2017 $12
Feb 2018 $14
Feb 2019 $16
Feb 2020 $18
With risk being weighted to upside rather than downside
nb North Americans are surprised how low it was priced in the IPO
Time will tell how well Orion Health Executes but I,m happy to hold for the ride as its only 10 % of my share portfolio
Any weakness will be an opportunity to top up
for that cap, I would rather buy some more medibank shares next month
Looking to open up around the $7.00 level, well done for those who managed to get in with the IPO
11am it opens
Match price is sitting at 689c at the moment.
arrrrgh! Gosh darn my fundamental analysis hat for this IPO and refusal to buy. :(
$6.50 open well done holders ;at this point.
$6.70 and climbing, will be interesting to see what happens in the next week or two.
Just about 14% of shares sold at IPO traded as existing shareholders in lock up.Very profitable first day trading for them
Got a small parcel today, will be buying over the next 3 weeks.
Game on for the Orion software development pipeline and the share price when its included in NZX 50 & the fundys need to buy
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11364724
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...a-cool-billion
For everyone who went into the IPO, I salute you.
Regarding your index comment though Kiora, I have never been able to work the liquidity and float calculations that the NZX use for inclusion into the NZ50. The rules are here I think:
https://www.nzx.com/files/static/Equ..._June_2012.pdf
I would have thought that with McCrae holding so much of the shares, that the free float calculation would exclude Orion from the index. I'm not sure but if someone with greater brain power could work the maths example here, I would be forever in their debt.
GS