I am already in.
I ment after the price has gone up, it will be a while before most of the hanover investors realise. Sorry I was not very clear.
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I am already in.
I ment after the price has gone up, it will be a while before most of the hanover investors realise. Sorry I was not very clear.
Many Hannover investors have probably never owned a share in their lives and are unsure how to go about selling them.
Down 11% today, someone sold 1m at the open.
A lot of sellers have come onto the market at giddy heights of 12.5 cents.
Qty Bid
100000 0.109
60000 0.108
10000 0.107
100000 0.106
50000 0.105
Offer Qty
0.115 239178
0.12 136615
0.123 226955
0.124 132784
0.125 339388
0.126 116951
A couple more observations on "mosts"
Most exHanovers do not need the money to cover debt, and have gone through the bereavement process over their former wealth already.
Most exHanover shares will be part of inheritances in the next 20 years, for as long as ALF is solvent
Most exHanover shares will be sold by said inheritors for next to nothing, or be part of the gnarliest receivership disbursement of the century.
Hard to tell if getting into the NZX50 was just wishful thinking on the part of ALF management, or a balls up by NZX!
"Allied Farmers Limited (ALF:NZX) has today received an email from NZX
advising that it has reversed an earlier advice that its shares would be
included in the NZX50 Index.
On Monday of this week the company received an email from NZX advising that
its shares were to be included in the NZX50 and were advised that the market
would be informed shortly. Subsequently that was included in a memo sent out
by NZX to subscribers of the Market Indexation Memorandum Service.
We understand that this memorandum saw a number of institutions acquire
shares in Allied Farmers Limited and the effect of this was to see the share
price rise.
This morning the Company received an email reversing that earlier advice and
a new Market Indexation Memorandum has been sent to subscribers of that
service. This has seen Allied Farmers shares fall by over 10%.
Allied Farmers Limited has requested an explanation of this reversal from
NZX. From our advice and our own modelling we are at a loss to see why Allied
Farmers shares on all known criteria should not be in the index immediately.
By our modelling Allied Farmers Shares would have easily entered the NZX50.
Allied Farmers will keep the market informed on correspondence from the NZX
in relation to this issue. "
NZX must have read my post ;)
hard to understand that this is a subjective decision. surely there are fixed criteria and you're either in, or not.
according to the nzx website the NZX50 is defined as :
The NZX 50 comprises the securities of the top 50 companies listed on the NZSX Market by free float market capitalisation. The free float is determined by excluding blocks of shares greater than 20% and blocks between 5% and 20%, which are considered strategic.
There are also liquidity threshold requirements that a company must meet to be included, measured by shares traded versus number on issue as a %.
Rubicon fell out of the 50 in 2008 because it failed to meet the liquidity requirements.
Market stunned by NZX flip-flop
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10627322
First Richina and now this. No wonder New Zealanders prefer housing.
How does Weldon expect M&D to have confidence in the market. At least this error has probably effected the institutions but it shows how their 2 teir information systems favour the big boys.
Those that knew it was to enter the index received a 20% gain in two days and it would have gone higher but for their flip flop.
not only that...but according to the article in the Herald ALF was in possession of clearly price sensitive information about the inclusion on the Monday and didn't disclose it.
They were happy to disclose their nose out of joint on the Friday tho.
It also begs the question of what other services the NZX operates to benefit of instituitions to the deteriment of everybody else.
cowboy country!
Gidday
The information was distributed by f*#kknuckles at NZX to "market participants" I sure didn't get it, I suppose my megabucks in NZX companies ,incl ALF isn't "Participation"
Oh well off to the IRD FIF regime for a bit of light relief (not)
Most if not all brokers would have had this update on the Monday. I can get it off my broker, as well as research reports when they release them. I think its kind of amusing that Fran O'sullivan said " big players to make a killing at the expense of 'mums and dads' shareholders."
If big players were buying and pushing the price higher with the index info, and then the price dropped back to 11 cents, didn't the big players get screwed? And the little guys win as they sold there shares off higher?
There are probably some pretty annoyed people in the fund management arena I'd say.
NZX has stuffed up on two fronts:
1. annoy big boys by changing thier mind
2. annoying M&D by showing the two teired structure.
If 1. didn't happen, would it be such an issue in the media?? Buy doing both 1 and 2, hopefully something will be done about 2 but I think it is unlikely.
Isn't it the companies responsibility to release information to the market? And in both cases didn't NZX email ALF about the inclusion and drop out? Therfore is it not ALF's responsibility to inform shareholders?
I also disagree that it's a two tiered structure. Investing is 20 tiered structure, you get info where you can.
Are the broker valuations been posted on the FBU thread insider info? Is the research on the BLT thread about potential sales and future profits insider info?
Agree I doubt this would be such a ruckus if the people who got the run around in this situation were not the funds, funnily enough it might have been NZX's own index funds :p
Did anyone else notice that ALF found a lot of support at 10.5. And there was a lot of downward pressure on the price yesterday. Someone is still buying. I suppose that it could be a funds manager who is just a bit slow pulling orders and getting out of the bath after NZX pulled the plug.
Or...maybe, there really is a bottom in the 10c to 10.5c range that this dog can be traded off ???
Or someone buying 'cheap' for when/if it does ever enter the index. Based on the NZX comments, it is only a matter of time isn't it?
Must have been a lot of buying by institutions to play the indexing game. If the turnover drops away, NZX will have a good reason not to include in index.
Frontpage headline in the NBR today
Hanover assets worse than Allied thought
Bugger ... the NBR is plastic wrapped and it was hard to read the full story .... and I didn't want to fork out the $10 to buy it
Folded a bit of the plastic back and appaarently all will be revealed Monday when ALF do their half yearly
AS such some things need a full expnantion and things need 'to be valued correctly'
Allied Farmers Announces Half Year Result
https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/N...ALF-115241.pdf
https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/N...ALF-115242.pdf
NTA works out at roughly 7.44 cents per share.
A 578m
L 407m
Intangibles 19.7m
Deferred Tax 6.3m
1,952,294,858 shares on issue
Wow, that's kind of magical! The way they just made $220m worth of Hanover assets disappear off the balance sheet without even having to declare it as a loss...
So, the Hanover assets were worth north of $500m, then $400m in December, and now they are worth $175m. Can someone explain to me again why Allied shareholders voted in favour of the deal???
A key quote from Alloway in the NBR article: "Anything we find inside any loan file ... we will immediately bring in whatever authority necessary to make sure that its investigated and any necessary actions are taken."
For my own part, as a beginner and all that...
Lesson well reinforced is to make your own actions, and folly to follow others
My hand is up, but only once. V.
Sadly for Hanover depositors, looks like it's a complete write off with Kawarau Falls - with more to come.
There's still Jacks' Point, 3 Mile project and Matarangi.
Queenstown project now fully in receivership
By MARTA STEEMAN - The Press Last updated 05:00 05/03/2010
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The last two stages of the ambitious $2 billion Kawarau Falls Station hotel and apartment development in Queenstown have been placed in receivership.
United States high risk lender Fortress Credit Corporation, the first mortgagee of stage two and stage three, called in receivers Grant Thornton for Peninsula Road, owned by Auckland developer Nigel McKenna, on Tuesday. Peninsula Road owns the site of stage two and three of the huge development.
Stage one was placed in receivership last May. The receivers of stage one, KordaMentha, continued with the hotel and apartment development, which has since had $64 million poured into it. Stage one's first mortgagee BOSI (Bank of Scotland International) was owed $180m by February, excluding interest owed since the receivership.
Stage two and three creditors are expected to be due more than $100m.
Stage two second mortgagee Allied Farmers, which bought Hanover Finance and its loans late last year, wrote down Hanover's finance assets this week by $99m.
Allied Farmers managing director Rob Alloway said yesterday most of that was related to the Kawarau development, which Hanover lent on.
"We don't think our chances for recovery are very high at all."
The Kawarau project was to have eventually included a conference centre, four hotels, and apartments.
Allied overstated the value of the assets to get the deal done, a couple of months later the value of the assets has halved and is heading farther south. The Allied shareholders should be very angry about the way they were duped.
They* must take some of the blame too. First they put money into Hanover. Then they voted for the moratorium. Then they voted for the Allied deal.
Along the way, there were plenty of warnings. I was at the moratorium meeting and Bruce Sheppard was shouted down by a few of the depositors! They were so scared of the 'public' knowing what a basket case Hanover was!!!!!!
* excludes those who voted against and who were advised by commissioned advisors.
Anyone with any idea of what their exposure to Kawararau Stages 2 and 3 is. It also seems some of the value of Stage 1 is based on the completion of 2 & 3 so there might be further impacts there.
Again I have no sympathy for the Allied holders (like Balance - those that voted "yes"). Hotchin and Watson are very skilled operators but the warning flags were there. The Hanover investors will be left wondering how things go full circle. Back at the Moratorium they were offered recievership and through various machinations they have still ended up there. This tiem round though they are also bringing down ALF holders.
Talk about toxic loans and toxic assets!!
Hopefully karma catches up with Watson and Hotchin. Watson seems to be the oily charmer who's happy living the high life thousands of miles from the melt-down, Hotchin's the balding fat-faced pig-eyed weasel ensconsed in his oversized montronsous edifice to his own vanity and greed.
Now, now. Thats a bit harsh isn't it. When finance compnaies were burning what did Hanover investors do - give their money to H/W
Hanover investors had the option to open up H/W accounts at the time of the Moratorium by placing Hanover into Recievership. They declined that opportunity.
They could have got H/W to cough up $20m of personal cash - if they had held out on the Moratorium. They decleined that opportunity.
There was another potential recievership and exposing of H/W as part of the ALF deal. They declined that opportunity.
H/W got to where they are today because thats what their investors allowed them to do. It is the investors who voted H/W's life style with cash and hands each step of the way.
And 5 Mile has just been put into receivership.
Ouch.
Sneaky buggers - let the market know just after its closed. No doubt time to give their mates a chance with a bit of a semi decent exit price.
Brian Gaynor offers his deep insight:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-bu...0630196&pnum=0
I would suggest that ALF shareholders should consider the competence of their directors in arranging and recommending such a value destroying deal.
Further, I would suggest the NZX change the listing code from ALF to ARF
I think that's a little unfair on Gaynor.
He's been a long-time critic of the poor regulation of the NZ finance/broking scene as anyone who knew him since his early years as a shareboker in Wellington in the seventies would testify. Not exactly welcomed into the establishment!
We can't expect him to be name-specific in his criticisms - unless of course we want to first indemnify him against legal actions - but readers of his columns over the years would have been left in no doubt as to his views on the potential problems in the finance company sector and the shortcomings of NZ markets in general.
Someone mentioned to me this statement once upon a time ...... "Sleep with dogs and you will eventually get fleas".
Allied shock at Hanover loan pardons
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3414...r-loan-pardons
[QUOTE=Dr_Who;295982]Someone mentioned to me this statement once upon a time ...... "Sleep with dogs and you will eventually get fleas".
You should have listened to them!!!!
ALF (or at least Allied Finance) have spent some of their hard earned cash in getting the naming rights for the Basin Reserve, home of NZ cricket
As a gesture of goodwill in making ex Hanover investors life miserable maybe they should do a deal with NZCC that if you produce evidence you are a ALF shareholder you get free admittance to Aussie test starting tomorrow
Ooops ... with tens of thousands of shareholders the ground could get to overflowing pretty quick ..... but I guess with only a few thousand paying guests anyway there would be more than enough room for all
Maybe a banner competition as well .... as long as you put the ALF logo on it the banner somewhere you qualify .... prize could be another 1000 ALF shares
Would a banner like 'Wish I had been screwed by Lara instead of by Hotchin' win ... or wouldn't Michael understand the full meaning
Any other banners I could use
I've been watching ALF since December 2009 when the Hanover deal was finalised.
The price has been fairly stable for most of the period, with initial support at 10c+ then, after the NZX announcement 'debacle', around 7.5c.
However, it has been drifting down, and based on nothing more than gut feeling (which probably translates into effectively a momentum analysis), it looks to me like it is heading down to a little less than 6c / share then stabilising there for a while.
I am not getting into ALF at this point as it looks like it will be cheaper within a reasonably short time, but I have no idea longer term.
What are your thoughts?
Alan.
I ve been saying ALF will go to 5 cents for many months now. I still cant believe why anyone would pay a premium to the so called "NTA" for a high risk stock. Thats assume there are no more hidden nasties that can surprise us.
At this point I can't quite see it hitting 5c / share in the next two months - I'd guess 5.5 to 6.0c up to end of May 2010, but that is just a guess of course.
What timeframe are you talking about for 5c / share?
I could say it will hit $10 / share and never be wrong - as long as I don't say when it will get there... :-)
Alan.
Sorry mate, I dont have a crystal ball. I wish I did. LOL
There is a good tarot card reading at Victoria Park market.:p
Support at $0.070 now seems to have broken and its trending down. More punters reckon they can get in at $0.06 so that will be the next barrier. I reckon that can be breached hit in the next month. From there I reckon its still down hill. The full extent of the toxic debts still has to be worked out and the Budget may have some impact on the value of some assets. There are still a few Finance Companies looking shaky and this sector needs to do more to get investor confidence. Rural sector also looking shaky (rural sales dropping, values dropping?, debt exposures/tightening credit, NZ$) so its probaly more cautious / steady rather than feeling bullish.
Closed today at $0.064 (down to a new low)
Start of Feb ACC owned 5.5m, start of Mar they held 11.5m.
Will be interesting to see what they hold on April 1. Currently the largest holder of ALF.
I don't believe this to be a negative as you see it, I think it was quite positive. ACC have a pretty good investment team, and there past investment record is very good.
2008 Annual Report
http://www.acc.co.nz/PRD_EXT_CSMP/id...lowInterrupt=1
2009 should be out in the next month.
I agree.
This is potentially a good fit for ACC. They (probably) don't need a dividend flow, so they can sit it out and let ALF get the maximum value out of the Hanover book over time.
It is only if ALF are forced into liquidating it quickly that they'll sub-optimise the value derived.
Alan.
That may have been a factor but if you have a read of page 56 of their Annual report they held 113m of TEL and 29.3m in NZS. Those two holdings contrast indiacte the investment approach is not aimed at tracking the 50 index or even tracking benchmark world index like the dow or 500.
It seems they diversify widely, but also have the ability to take views outside of the box as well.
Did have. This was the AR for year end 2008. NZS did hit a peak of $1.80ish
As at 19 March 2010 ACC own 16.9m NZS, worth 6.61m.
Back to topic:
Someone just bought 4.18m ALF @ 0.062.
Only 2 ppl owned more than 2m shares in ALF before the Hanover shareholders came on board. Rob Alloway & John Hynds.
We now have 32 ppl who own more than 2m shares.
The trade is for the exact size of one of the new holders, so another Hanover investor selling their complete stake.
Who are these high rollers? Close of day trade worth $500 brings the price down 1.6%
Apparently management presented at First NZ conference today
So Allied might become a property developer
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...0635231&pnum=2
Predictions for next 3 months anyone?
Rob Alloway is coming across in the media as a bit of an ineffective mild mannered wimp IMHO. Time will tell, but not the traits needed in this hellish business.
The statement that they are not interested in risk is interesting
Purely from a share price and not looking at the fundamentals of the company these ex hanover shareholders are going to keep pushing the price down as they sell out. As to if the company is worth anywhere near its NTA is anyones guess
Thats going to be the way of it for a while yet. At the moment there are only a few people in there offering $30,000 support at 0.06. But on the sell side there is nothing of substance - just people who probably want to rasie a bit of cash to pay for the "early bird" winter holiday to the Gold Coast. For Hanover holders, I reckon they figure the money is gone. So if you have nothing anything you get above zero is a bonus. At the moment there isn't a heck of a lot to motivate them to sell - but give them another month or two when winter comes that month in Australia is going to look a better option or putting in a new heater may be enough to encourage them to quit - at whatever price they can get. Which ultimatly means a falling SP for a while yet.
ACC now holding around 10.9m. Thats around $660,000k worth. Every 0.001 drop is peanuts to ACC - so they are probably a biit like Hanover investors: probably reckon there holding is now nothing worth thinking about. But it would be nice to know what they bought in at.
I don't think they will either - I'd imagine they would have the Receptionist monitoring ALF during her tea break. Actually that figure is just theri NZ equities. Total ACC investements for reserves are around $10,750m. $650k would hardly register a blip and they would make more by getting a Benny off the compo.
Mini just wondering where you source your figures?
I get mine from Deep Archive and ACC have increased their holding to 16.0m shares as at 1 April.
This to me is indicating a trend that they are slowly accumulating a large stake in ALF
Usually a variety of sources - in this case the Companies Office (so there may be delays in them updating their records??) and the ACC Annual report. Buying a down trending stock would be an interesting play by ACC - especially if they are buying small amounts.
16m shares still only gives them 0.8% holding (best check my math!)
Share price up 17%, what are they up to?
not much volume but still rising...
Selling off the good parts of the loan book ( the GOOD ASSETS of any sell off are always the easiest to sell ) which will imho leave the cr@p which no one want.
Allied Farmers Asset Valuations Update
Consistent with Allied Farmers’ objective to keep the market fully informed on progress toward finalization of the values of property assets and loan assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance on 18 December 2009, we provide the following update.
On 1 March 2010 Allied Farmers released its interim financial statements for the period ended 31 December 2009. Included in these financial statements were the net assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance on 18 December 2009. The provisional fair value assessment for these net assets was $175.5 million.
On 7 May 2010 Allied Farmers announced a net decrease of $17.9 million from $105.4 million to $87.5 million in the value of its property assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance. The property assets are properties previously directly owned by Hanover and United and now directly owned by Allied Farmers. These include industrial development land in Queenstown, and various lifestyle sections and properties around New Zealand.
In the 7 May 2010 announcement Allied Farmers also indicated that the value of the loan assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance on 18 December 2009 is likely to be subject to an increase in impairment provisions, but at that stage it was too early to determine the extent of the impairment. The loan assets are loans made by Hanover Finance and United Finance (as lender) that have been transferred to Allied Farmers. These loans are typically secured over properties that are in various stages of development, ranging from bare land to completed and tenanted projects. The loans were recorded in the 31 December 2009 Interim Financial Statements at their provisional fair value assessment of $106.6 million.
As part of the process for the preparation of the 30 June 2010 financial statements Allied Farmers has now completed assessment work on $69.1m of the $106.6 million loans (being 65 percent) acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance. As a result of that work, Allied Farmers advises that an increase in impairment provisioning of $33.6 million is required on the $69.1 million of loans assessed to date.
Assessment work is underway on the remaining $37.5m balance of the acquired loan assets not yet assessed. However, we are unable at this stage to determine the extent of the impairment on these loans until we have received further information, such as updated independent valuations on underlying property securities.
Consistent with Allied Farmers previous statements, these loan asset impairment provisions, and the net decrease in the value of the property assets, reflect the challenges in realizing the assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance at the value ascribed in Hanover Finance’s and United Finance’s audited 30 June 2009 financial statements. These reflect the state of the market for both Allied Farmers’ property assets and loan assets secured by borrowers’ properties.
In particular, in relation to the loan assets, the following factors during the 2010 calendar year have contributed to the impairment provision:
• Lower valuations for commercial development land, arising from:
o a tightening of funding for such developments; and
o a lengthening of realisation periods due to longer rezoning processes and delays
• Lower valuations of Auckland apartments arising from a lack of funding and general oversupply.
• The bankruptcy or liquidation of borrowers resulting in forced sales rather than managed sell downs.
The result of our assessment work to date is that the provisional fair value assessment of the net assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance (disclosed in Allied Farmers 31 December 2009 Interim Financial Statements at $175.5 million) require a further impairment provision of $51.5 million. This results in a value of approximately $124 million for the net assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance.
These impairment provisions are subject to further adjustments arising from completion of the work on the remaining $37.5m balance of the acquired loan assets, and audit verification. The final position will be reflected in Allied Farmers 30 June 2010 Financial Statements.
ENDS
The whole writedown saga continues
Shoeshine in a recent NBR column commented that the due diligence must have been a dogs breakfast .... so todays announcement confirms ... $400m of assets now valued at $120m odd with more reviews to be done
Shoeshine also pointed some key dates and events to keep the bankers happy and also mentioned that ANF is experiencing 53% reinvestment rates and asks what happens when the government guarantee runs out.
Still a lot more to come out I think
...I really cannot believe the only things being thrown at hotchins palace are only eggs...and for that matter Hoskings place as well...
The magicians got a Get Out of Jail free card and the holders continue to suffer. The writing was on the wall long while back, but unfortunately the PR spin was so good most was blinded by the BS. Didnt some accounting firm valued the asset at 60 cents during the ALF/Hangover deal?
http://pinoleroyrogers.files.wordpre...k-no-evil1.jpg