Yes aye,no surprises there!!!
That/those daughter/s still keeping you working.?
Hells bells the granddaughter's new computer cost me over twice what I paid for mine.!!
Like you I have put off my retirement for another 35 years.!
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Yes aye,no surprises there!!!
That/those daughter/s still keeping you working.?
Hells bells the granddaughter's new computer cost me over twice what I paid for mine.!!
Like you I have put off my retirement for another 35 years.!
Try and get along to the next Ryman agm.
Held in one of their villages.
The Chairman put his mother in Ngaio Marsh Village.
The CFO got to know Ryman through putting his mother in a Ryman home.
A good number of shareholders attending every agm are village residents, who are both proud of their village,and their shareholding in Ryman.
My brother-in-law is in the final stages of terminal cancer.Receives free prescriptions,yet the miserable chemist charged him $3 fax fee, as his Dr had faxed it through.!
Not sure if anyone else noticed 'some action' that occured today, but in a trade at 9:01 this morning close to 1% (0.93%) of the company changed hands (at 0.91 - above market price of 0.90)... will be interesting to see if any SSH notices appear in the coming days as a result...Looking forward to more greenfield developments (which ARV have stated they are looking at)... as you all say, this is where the 'easy money' is
Righto people! I was having breakfast this morning n read local newspapers regarding one of Arvida's site open home. So I decided to have a visit and check thier site's development.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/277863
My General feedbacks:
1. Regarding thier update (refer to above announcement), construction and renovation works are evident. I can confirm there are new service apartments and villas built and ready to be sold And ready to be occupied.
2. The company is doing a good marketing locally to attract more residents. I can confirm there are quite a good interest with the newly built apartments and villas during my visit.
3. Regarding thier care focused vision, I went to the rest home and walked around to see the staff and the residents. Guess what? One of the staff turned out to be my tenant wife! I had a good chat with the staff and looked around. There no evident of work pressures, staffs are happy working there. I could see the residents are enjoying thier lunch. Proportion of staff is adequate with the size of the residents.(trust me, my wife work in one of the privately own rest home, u don't believe the workloads they have. Residents are just a number for them)
In a nut shell, I think Arvida is a long term investment. Obviously they need "time" to grow, and definitely more properties to buy and more developments to happen in order to see the share up. Generally speaking, they are not bluffing or lying about the current development on one of thier site. We could probably see this company grow like SUM, MET even RYm but they need "time"
As we all know "time is the best friend of long term investor"
Hope my small and short experience could help and give your general views about Arvida. Please DYOR.
Note: I am am a long term holder. I like to do my own research and share my findings. My findings and feedback could be wrong so please don't sell your house and put all the money in or follow me!
I appreciate it greatly and do look forward to Arvida both continue to develop as a rest home ("care based") and look forward to them embarking on more brownfield and greenfield based development (both of which the company has mentioned it is interested in and/or currently undertaking). I believe the Browns Bay one is doing very nicely.
Although capital gains growth could be argued to be slower than that of say SUM with ambitious building and sales targets (that they are delivering on... so far), I will continue to enjoy a 5% yield instead.
An immediate concern for ARV, as a stock, is that when the escrows end (which I believe is mid this year?) the market is flooded with "All Black sellers" who just want cash... I am sort of hoping this 'retail stupidity' (fueled by short signed panic), demonstrated very well in PEB a few months back, will happen so I can pick up some cheap shares for myself! (Although unlike PEB, I don't think ARV will increase 57% 4 months!)
Disclosure: I brought at IPO price so I am down a bit capital wise, although a friend of mine brought at 82c in Oct 15, after noticing a few directors continuing to purchase more shares, and has enjoyed over 9% capital gain already, and on track for a 7% yield - unheard of in the retirement sector!
Did anyone else notice that there was a trade for just over 3 million shares around mid day today? (I presume at 92 cents but i can't find a record of it...) this is like 1.5% of the company in 1 trade, and far far higher than the average daily traded... and the embargoes haven't expired yet (I don't think)..
Anyone have any ideas?
http://www.stocknessmonster.com
is also a good site for similar info
Any good news coming? Or what?
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/232424.pdf
latest news...
Go Arvida!!!!!
I've noticed some big buy orders being put in lately (ie today) around 91c and 93c
It could be because of Forsyth's valuation of $1.09 being reinforced yesterday in a 37 page "aged care update"... maybe people finally catching on that ARV isn't just a business of low(er) margin care beds and have a nice development in the pipeline (Park Lane) along side a good number of high quality apartments/units.
I am hoping this will be a great success, and allow ARV to build a successful development record, eventually show Mr Market (who is currently pricing almost no growth) that ARV isn't just care beds.
Meanwhile I'll keep enjoying my 6 or so percent yield :t_up:
Some of the wording from the ARV management didn't give me a lot of confidence that they're focused on growth. To be honest, I would rather expect shareholders to be hoping for a buyout as the best option for return. Agreed, dividends on ARV are nice and will likely be consistent.
Pretty much nails my thoughts on ARV. The company is to focused on dividends to grow at the pace of the big 3.
Sometime ago someone mentioned MET buying out ARV to expand their South Island portfolio. As most of MET's villages are in Auckland. Either that or an Australian company(EHE, REG, JHC or AOG) buying them out to expand their operations. Then injecting funds for faster growth.
Personally I'd rather ARV, SUM, RYM and MET to stop paying dividends and use the money for faster growth, paying down debt or share buy backs.
-Pooping the Party
A DRP would work, but not all company owners are willing to give up shares to build the value of remaining shares.
T_j - ARV getting close to a $1
Well done - rewards for keeping he faith eh
Yeah it has about one tenth the potential of Ryman, there is nothing really for Mr Market to understand except that this is primarily a care based company with a few add on villas as opposed to the big three being primarily property development companies ( More so with Ryman and Sum) Once Oceania lists Arvida will have another company to compete with on an Apples for Apples basis.
I am not sure where you get your numbers from, but a report prepared by Forsyth on 23rd march listed the following PE:
ARV 15.2x
MET 15.3x
RYM 23.9x
SUM 20.0x
Prices have changed since then meaning the above will be slightly out of date, although they do provide a nice graph showing MET and ARV are always the lowest for "12 month forward PE ratios" at around 15
I'm not saying they are going to be the next Ryman, but I also find it interesting how the market continues (or use to) to write off ARV's potential development capabilities
The PE ratio for ARV on close tonight according to ANZ securities is 75:eek2: PS- Please re read the last sentence from post #126 tj and let it sink in, you really must stop comparing Apples with Oranges.
If the PE is 75 and the div is 6%, where is the money reinvested into the business for growth?
Yes it is quite weird... not sure where Forsyth get their numbers from... I to look forward to (and hope!) Oceania lists, as it will provide a better comparison (retirement village vs retirement village rather than retirement village vs property development company)
From a bit by Chris Lee on the Ryman thread -
It may also provide hope for Arvida and Oceania, both of which have shareholders who simply want to exit what has been a very lean business model.
Chris Lee doesn't get it does he t_j - its about a transfer of riches to a new breed of investors eh
TJ has to be the least convincing company-sponsored poster on this site. Hilarious.
This, from the NZ Herald business article on McCaw today:
"The bulk of McCaw's holdings were rolled up and floated on the NZX in late 2014 as Arvida. According to an analysis of the company's prospectus and various rest home shareholding lists filed with the Companies Office, it appears McCaw's stake in Arvida stood at just under 1 per cent at the time it listed in late 2014. While a small stake, its value was nonetheless considerable, with Herald calculations suggesting it was worth in excess of $2.5 million.
Subsequent shareholding lists filed by the retirement home operators to the Companies Office appear to show McCaw has since sold down his holdings. A November disclosure showed McCaw's remaining stake stood at just 105,000 shares, worth around $107,000 at last week's prices."
The escrow period then would appear to have already ended. The rest of the article presents McCaw as a 'smart' operator.
The escrow period was supposed to be the 30th of may. I've been waiting for this date, expecting a drop due to increased supply... However the SP ran away about a week ago from its meandering 90s.
I wanted in on this due to diversity in the sector, but am not a fan due to the words management have used around growth - feels like they're tired and not striving to dominate the market. I figured after escrow I might get a bargain, looks like that's not happening. Can't really see a good reason other than low interest rates for recent SP moves.
The herald could always be wrong... in fact I can't find what they are talking about (but I am probably looking at the wrong thing) I do recall one/some of the management team buying up shares during/around this period
McDonald said at the AGM, mid last year, that about 60% of Arvida shares were held in escrow by various holders who could only sell after 30/5/16. McCaw's holding must then not have included in that sale restriction.
Hey, you may still get your wish. 60% is potentially a shed load of shares.If I remember rightly, SLI had a similarly escrow (albeit married with the company's under performance) provision for their founding holders. Their share price was decimated after that date with large parcels being dumped on the market.
Maybe they could sell to others also restricted, just not on the open market.
$1.02 now.
$1.08 now...
$1.20 soon
I think it is very good ARV Management listened to minor share holders comments and took the time to see what large escrowed share holders intend to do... this will reduce uncertainty that panic share sales will happen immediately after May 30
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/281414
In my view, looks like we really could be heading to $1.20 now that pressure from escrowed shares is likely to be almost non existent!
Clearly their largest share holders have great confidence in management and ARV's ambitions, I would have expected them to sell a bit more just to get some cash, but then again, why sell a company with a steadily rising share price, underpinned by defensive earnings and a dividend yield unheard of in the retirement sector?
Could also hint that these majority shareholders (ie the villages themselves) are expecting a very nice May 25 announcement;) , we already know it is going to be well ahead of IPO forecasts...
TJ - keep your eyes wide open. Investors often change their minds, and they also often don't reveal their true intentions (because doing so would undermine their wider play)
Very true, although I doubt they would purposeful come out with a statement saying they expect to sell 2 million shares, and then go ahead and dump 10 million on the market (in short period of time)... they'd likely get some inquiry form the NZX as to why they would 'mislead' the market... still possible over a long period of time to gradually sell down of course, just nice to know there is (most likely) not going to be any immediate downward pressure on the share price, as a result of escrowed shares coming off escrow :t_up:
Reread the statement. No one made any firm undertakings. Its all completely hearsay. Any deviation from it would be highly unlikely to elicit FMA investigation, and hence they are free to deviate as much as they want without fear of repercussion...
Main part of the ann was the company is keen to "facilitate" the selling of these shares by getting Forbar involved
A cynic would say thats good news - plenty of portfolios they manage they can dump these bargain share in (just pure speculation based on what posters have previously posted about Forbar)
https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.c...spx?id=4147092
Valuation increase.
Just seems weird they announce this a coupe weeks before the full year report comes out (you don't see ryman or summerset doing this) and then tagging it "The revaluation of Arvida's care facility land and buildings is not expected to result in a material change in value."
Relative to what others have reported in revaluations this seems a bit on the light side.
Suppose reported NPAT will be around $19m plus or minus a bit
Good or bad king?
All that matters is the result beats IPO forecasts
Rather meaningless target but seems inportant
What on earth is going on here, Winner?
I guess the company is being super conservative, don't want to forecast over then did not achieve the target. Just look at ASX:MGC, thier share got smashed! Just because they missed thier forecast....
Hmm it was an interesting announcement, something that I would have thought they'd save for "the big day" (Wednesday 25 May) as 7% is good (more NTA backing etc etc) but not exactly something I would have thought an additional announcement was required for... then again with continuous disclosure rules, they might have felt the need to release it asap rather than take the risk of waiting 15 days, with company insiders already knowing this 'nice' bit of news... they are going to exceed IPO forecasts by a "substantial" margin (in my view...I mean this is what happens when you buy another profitable high quality retirement village that wasn't in IPO forecasts, they have also repeatedly stated that they will beat IPO forecasts)... what I will be interest in is comparing IPO EPS & DPS forecast to May 25 2016 EPS & DPS actual, and any further greenfield and brownfield development updates as I believe ARV is considering moving more into development
On a side note, we all know companies like to try and build up some sort of positive momentum (or warn the market of serious issues!) in the couple weeks leading up to results day... if SUM etc didn't do this kind of announcement, they'd be bound to do some other forecast or something.. or if there is absolutely no news, don't be expecting alot come results day (this is my informal analysis anyway)
haha, interesting. Never thought I'd hear t_j say anything bad about his dearly beloved... :)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941
Great results, don't need to go into to much detail :t_up: but actually I think I will (a bit).. did anyone else spot one particular hidden surprise that occurred today? (which was of course very good...Lansdowne Park acquisition, high quality by the looks of it with 98% occupancy and purchased under CBRE fair value and "immediately accretive to earnings")
150 units under development, 24 luxury ones already under construction... looks like ARV is turning more to development (which is what I have believed for a while now.. and according to 'everyone else' on the form this is where the 'real money' is, so looking forward to this, as will make profit numbers look even better due to expected increases in fair value gains)
I note there was a specific part in the presentation that mentioned greenfield developments... first time I think this has been done, I also note at the end it is mentioned "development activity to deliver continued momentum in revenue and earnings"... by now, I'm sure it is clear ARV is not just a "low margin" care bed operator anymore;)
Selling of escrow shares (which is expected to be very little, this was reaffirmed again) still doesn't appear to result in sustained downward pressure (I think)... could be done in a block trade, easy for me to see an institution come and vacuum these up.
Not expecting to much price action due to it having the 2nd best 52 week return (32.2% when including gross dividends), 2nd only to SUM with 36.26% (source NZX website)... then again going by the looks of Ryman (who also recently reported their results) and assuming ARV begins more development (as indicated) could be a bit more room to run yet!
Food for thought:
Arvida:
- Underlying profit of $15.8 million
- Net Profit After Tax of $24.0 million
- Net operating cash flows $24.2 million
- Market cap 0.3b
Ryman:
- Underlying profit of $158 million (10x ARV)
- Net Profit After Tax of $241.9 million (10x ARV)
- Net operating cash flows $312.5 million (13x ARV)
- Market cap: 5.8b (19x ARV)
Disclosure: hard not to hold!
They are looking other instos to buy in escrow shares??? I am so happy with the result..dividend increases to 1.10 cents. wowww
Forsyth Barr Limited, who has been appointed to assist in the co-ordination and sale of any escrowed shares at the end of the escrow period, has received indications of interest from a range of institutional and retail investors in relation to the purchase of these escrowed shares.
I am interested to see what you think of ARV's results posted today, particularly interested to see if you are not particularity impressed by them.
Thought I would also use this post to re look at sector PE's (as I have done this in the past):
- SUM: 11.9
- MET: 5.8
- RYM: 15.5
- ARV: 12.1
I am also pleased to say, on the whole, it is above Forsyth's Estimates.
(I also added to my post above #166)
What new development are ARV undertaking?
t_j ARV closing in on HBL
Odds on now it will HBL to 130 ....and it will always be ahead of HBL
Have considered getting of the loser/slow plodding hack and doubling up on the winner/throughbred?
Whatever - good on you for keeping the faith and staying loyal.
Newguy banned so you won't be hearing from him
How wrong I was! Share price at $1.18, with several trades at $1.20... winner69: the 're-rating' of ARV seems to have begun...! ARV now the best performer over the past year? Who would have thought eh!
Lewylewylewy, please see the below: (and for more information, see: https://www.nzx.com/companies/ARV/announcements/282941)
Arvida has an active brownfield development programme with potential to enhance earnings from existing facilities and provide attractive returns on capital invested. Returns from developments continue to grow as they mature and reach normal levels of activity. Development capabilities have been deepened in order to position the company to execute the opportunities ahead.
Brownfield development activity in progress includes 150 retirement units and 37 care beds in the planning and consenting phase. Auckland City Council has recently approved the resource consent for the construction of 24 luxury apartments at Aria Bay. The village is very well located, with an excellent reputation in its local community and these new apartments will provide local residents with a quality retirement offering.
In addition, there are an estimated additional 100+ beds/units within existing villages that are yet to be assessed.
Also from NBR today:
“We have considerable brownfield opportunities within the existing portfolio that we’ve been working hard on, and over time as we deal with in-house capabilities and brownfield opportunities we would move toward more greenfield opportunities.”
Update: Forsyth hikes 12 month price target to $1.30...
Noting:
- Increased confidence in development (particularly mentioning: how it has increased its internal development capability, adding four new roles and boosting the team to five people: 2 new roles in Auckland (development manager and project manager) + 2 new roles in Christchurch (development manager and project manager), which will help the company to execute on upcoming development opportunities (particularly 150 planned units... so far).
- Growth in all revenue streams – growth in all areas
- Another acquisition (of high quality)
Lewylewylewy, couta1, and Left field as you all kindly pointed out to me less than 2 months ago that my PE's were wildly wrong and inaccurate, please kindly take note of the PE now being listed as 12.82 (on nzx.com), well down from the apparent 71.2 just over 1 month earlier...
(also take note that the share price has rallied almost 10% in the past 2 days so the PE would have been even lower just a short time ago)
As I've said before, sometimes looking at a headline figure, such as the PE on the nzx.com, with seemingly no research beyond this headline figure, and then comparing it to companies that have been listed for many years, can be very very deceiving & misleading and result in lost opportunities ;)
It is good to see Mr Market is no longer writing off ARV's potential (as much)
Have a good evening ;)
Did someone just sell 500k plus shares?
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/241628.pdf
Juicy dividend ...1.1c....
Great to see 150 units are well on track, probably completed in 1 to 2 years, not bad for a company with a capitalization 1/4th of SUM, and paying a near 5% dividend... what I really did liked to see (bold):
"Yesterday we received resource consent for the proposed Rhodes on Cashmere development which entails 28 apartments and a combination of 33 care suites and care beds. With the delivery of new care suites, we will be providing up to Hospital-level care in premium quality rooms."
- This part is nice, but what got me excited:
"This will enable us to place an ORA over the bed, thereby reducing our capital invested and improving investment returns to shareholders. We are also starting the process to implement the care suite model on existing beds within the portfolio."
- I would almost deem the bold above as price sensitive! Seems like ARV is about to make a whole lot more money on their care bed portfolio, both new and existing (quite a turn around from the few that had dogged this part of the business not long ago)...
With 94% occupancy across the portfolio, ARV are extremely efficient.
On another note, I found it interesting that the chairman noted: "We are mindful of external economic and political factors that could impact our economy and the concerns at the level of house price inflation and household debt in New Zealand." Lucky ARV are not on a huge building-spree, nor dramatically exposed to what some have labeled "the biggest ponzi scheme ever": Auckland Housing market... if these things do make a turn for the worst, ARV should be well sheltered, well at least compared to the bigger 3 (1 in particular mentioned before;))
There will be a few of us excited holders : Lets hope management keep performing :)
seems like there were a few people who waited till the final few minutes to read the meeting's address, in particular the bold above...;)
Whats going on with ARV t_j
Share price heading south again
Ouch. Depth of market supply is currently 9 times greater than market demand...
Not to sure... once again ARV is trading the cheapest in the sector (when excluding the non-paper fair value changes that often end up accounting for most of total net profit)
Maybe we are going back to the crazy undervalued days where retail panic ruled the market, before ARV produced what was a fantastic set of results?
today is dividend payment...just received news update....
Hey t_j, they after more of your money
Hope you got a bit spare lying around
Spose getting bigger and bigger is good
Shows ARV’s continued increasing focus on development, allowing increased build rate etc etc (something that the market continues to ignore), while having less risk due to strong defensive earnings
(no longer just the ‘old care bed focused dog with Ritchie’ as some once inferred not that many years ago…)
ARV’s dividends over the past few years will pay for my rights (great right?), so no issue for me… more than happy to take more than my allocation! (although I don’t think this is possible)
Fantastic that the vendors wanted shares, 30% in fact of the total purchase price… shows they believe in the ARV’s model, plans and ambitiousGreat that they are immediately accretive to underlying earnings.
Hard not to get excited really!
So if I buy 20,000 shares for $1.23c= $24,600. That gives me 2857 rights at $1.05c= $2,999. Then $24,600+$2,999= $27,599, with av price for shares=$1.207c. Or could wait for dust to settle and buy in after rights issue, when sp goes back to $1.10 to $1.15c, or I could be wrong:).
Opened at $1.29, an all time high, currently at $1.25, up nearly 10 cents since yesterday's low... so you could keep waiting around, while the re-rating continues, but it would seem this 'tactic' is proving costly ;);)
Disclosure: I don't know where the share price is going