oil up dollar down
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oil up dollar down
the worls isnt jumping because oil is around 70 plus per barrel. it wasnt long ago that many expected oil to colapse when it hit US$50 per barrel. it didnt happen and the world is desentitized at current prices. each benchmark of $80 or $90 will make headlines of course and again the world will keep comsuming. the $100 mark will be extremely significant and possibly cause a signifcant correction of 20% or more.
I am no expert but talk around the traps and has anybody changed their life so much because of the price of oil. not the people i know.
$100 per barrel is not if but when. maybe around that time then alternative fuels will be much more economical such as cng, lpg just like it was 20-25 years ago. petrol prices were 99.9 cents per litre back then so at todays prices for a dwindling supply is still relatively cheap.
oil imo has a long way to go in an uptrend and we aint seen nothing yet.
come on balance....waiting for you to say oil will drop to $10 or $15 per barrel.
I think that the world still needs oil always will but the stranglehold that has been around the western worlds neck because of oil is going to loosen its grip we are moving into a different era and this is just the begining.Oil has always been a cheap way to access power but the world is being made to look at other alternatives and fast before the oil runs out we are now using it more than ever, imagine if every chinese indian and indonesian family had a car running on oil derived products.We have to find alternatives we have no choice expect oil to keep rising but I think it will be used more strategically in years to come, I haven't seen a Boeing 747 that can run on anything but aviation fuel yet.
Thanks Vince for getting me out of this circular Closed Loop the computer world sometimes operates in. Much of my problem was with XTRA. My wife said i was locked out do to my atrocious spelling.
Thanks everyone for not missing me as i never wanted a swell head anyways.
Digger - We missed you, just like we miss Susan of Oriental Bay and the snails that Danny Boy was bringing down to the Pike Tunnel. Mrs Digger has a point about the spelling though. If we wrinklies don't keep up our standards this 4um wlg tkn ovr bi pepl hu tork txt.
Mx
Hi Arjay,not away just could not relog back in. Was very easy as Closed Loop not just could not relog as digger.
mx ,give me a couple of days to work out the text short hand.
The thing i am now most interested in is the fall off of oil pressure at Tui. When will it be first noticed and how will it compare to the expected modle.The same with the water cut.It will be in these two areas where the best estimate of Tui size will come. By AGM we should have a good idea of the expected full recovery volumn of oil,IMHO.
Hey Digger,
I didnt have a clue how to sign on . Had to get Vince to walk me through.
Digger you know what has happened? The price of coking coal is forecast to increase by 30% and no one seems to appreciate a most astonishing piece of news. 'Here we go again'
Great about Tui eh? Could easily go to 40 million barrels.
Hopefully NZO wont get slaughtered tomorrow. It ( the sub prime crisis has reared its head again ) Fortunately the oil price is way above forecast and I would predict the $NZ will get hammered again.
NZO is very well protected with excellent revenues and contracts in place should there be a market downturn.
lets just see how many nervous nellys there are tomoro trying to get out tho as you point out lets just hope that dollar falls more than oil will.
Another Hamilton poster recently said they'd been to see the movie "A Crude Awakening" at the Rialto and commented that there were only 4 other people in the theatre. I'm pleased to report that I saw it today at another cinema and the numbers of viewers in the theatre had swelled to 7. A rather sobering movie. The message I got is that we're running out of oil, it's gonna cause a crisis within a few short years, and no-one cares. An interesting angle is that politicians aren't ging to do anything that will make them unpopular (we know that already) so they won't address the issue until the electorate tells them they will support them if they take steps to deal with the problem. Problem is that the public don't care enough to make that phone-call to the politicians (except for the Greens perhaps, but they don't get supported by people with property to protect). In the same vein, I suspect that if tomorrow the sub-prime hammers the market again, the flock will head for bank deposits rather than investing in shares that become more valuable with increasing oil price and decreasing $NZ.
http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm shows diesel prices AU$15 above TAPIS crude while mogas has no margin at all. Anyone else recall a year or so ago when mogas was dearer than diesel?Quote:
TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Oil supplies are sufficient, with commercial inventories in industrialized countries higher than they've been for five years, but a lack of refining capacity is helping keep prices high, OPEC President Mohammed al-Hamli said on Sunday, according to Reuters.
The long and the short of it is that with severe refining capacity restraints on high spec diesel, the premium on light sweet crudes should hold or increase. (and refinery profits will gravitate to those refineries which can make sweet diesel from heavy sour crudes - NZR is doing :D:D:D)
Looking forward to the AGM when we should get an interesting update.
Mx
Hi Arjay,it was me ,wife and two accidental people at the first screening of Crude Awakening.Just thought i would point out that you have increased the first crowd by 25%,where you said only 4 other people in theatre.There was 4 in total. The other couple were going to the movies and did not know what the movie was about.He found it very interesting and she thought for a sat nite it was not a pleasent movie. A bit worrting and chose not to think about it.The roads after the movie were blocked solid with traffic from the rugby shield match.
Such is the state of awareness on peak oil in NZ. I say about another 3 years and the general population will not be able to hide from the problem any longer.Then it will be the Crude Awakening in the pocket book. Better hang on to those NZO shares.
.
Saw the Crude Awakening movie at the Academy this evening -- 4 people all told. Its crazy, everybody should see this movie, especially politicians. After the movie I suggested to the guy running the Academy that politicians should see it for free --- he was not impressed.
Movie was really sobering and thought-provoking. Has amazing historical footage as well as up to date analysis by people like Matt Simmons and Colin Campbell, as well as ex OPEC officials.
Simmons was credited as an energy banker and an "advisor to Geroge W Bush". Movie also featured a republican Senator who is very concerned, so its not all pink liberal "commie" propagander as the some of the conservative voices would have us believe.
Here is a link for the movie:
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/index2.html
Now that Zobra and Arjay then Bermuda and a small handful of others have seen Crude Awakening,that will mean that all that really do not need to see the movie have and those that urgently need to will just remain in the dark. I think only a very high oil price will wake people up.
WTI at 78.5 this morning after some more explosions in Mexico,so maybe the Crude Awakening is not far away.Also today OPEC will announce the expected no increase in output after there meeting.The world will confused unable to increase for will not increase.The difference is hugh but for another 6 months or so we can go on believing all is well with oil supply----if only the Saudis would do as they are told.
.
Nymex back over US$78 / barrel !!
One good huricane in the GoM and US$80 will be breached.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/com...rgyprices.html
Opec quotas likely to remain unchanged:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...E&refer=energy
Looking at an old Economist. Oil was $15/barrel in May 1999. Its gone up fivefold without making a discernable change in consumption habits. Somewhere there is a big fan - waiting...
The price of oil wont make to much difference to your oil shares. The companies will be spending more finding less, or do you think they will stand still until they go under with nothing left to sell?. The various GOVTS will tax the last oil to the hilt. The shareholders will be left as usual in the end with slim pickings. Most of the oil is undiscovered in the artic and antartic regions of the world so look forward to a bit of global warming to uncover that lot. Lots of water to flow under the bridge before we need to really be concerned. With NZO we know what they have got, but whats next is more to the point, where to from here?. Macdunk
There is no doubt supplies are tightening and judging from the lack of interest from the public to a 'crude awakening' life will go on as normal until one day in the not too distant future when Bush tries to enforce an oil law in Iraq. The Iraq's will go on strike and the price of oil will climb and there may be possible shortages. i.e. no fuel at the gas station.
That will be a big wake up call but we will get by for a while as even a 10% reduction in consumption will provide the world with a 8.6 million barrel per day cushion. Everyone can do it but can the Chinese and Indians? So sooner or later this cushion will be removed and so the cycle will repeat itself. The trouble is it is going to take 15-20 years hard endeavour to come up with alternatives.
We need to act now and not just look at weak alternatives like biofuel from food crops which is an absolute waste of areable land.
The real answer lies in reducing our population before a lack of energy reduces it for us.
Good to see NZO putting $$$ in the bank at record prices and a better exchange rate. If the forecast 30% increase in coking coal comes off then expect a jump in PRC's fortunes and a corresponding lift in NZO.
A lot of 2nd to 3rd world countries have a staggering 5-6 children. We have to educate the world.
Macdunk
You seem to be contradicting yourself, on one hand you are saying an oil producer isnt bound by the price of oil, & therefore FX (primarily $US rates?)
Yet, you say Nickel/Zinc etc stocks move based on the DOW, & commodity prices & again FX rates, ie they do make a difference?
There is a correlation between the two, & remember the tax/royalty regime for projects like Kupe is on better terms than "normal".
Govt's have had to reduce the taxes/royalties to stimulate exploration activity to some extent.
I think it's finished at the Rialto in Hamilton Digger. I saw it up the road at Victoria's (you can have a beer there!).
Good points Bermuda. I guess many people will keep paying higher petrol prices to maintain their car addiction (at least until the grocery money runs out), however high petrol costs is one thing - a fuel shortage is another. Fuel queues, rationing and the return of things like car-less days will wake people up. The most sobering aspect of A Crude Awakening to me was not related to transport fuels, but other uses for oil. They made the point that the eath's human carrying capacity (now nearly 7 billion) without cheap oil to make cheap food (fertilizers) is around 1-1.5 billion. That leave's 5 billion people to.......(well, you know). Still, I guess the rest of the planet will breathe a sigh of relief. Unless of course certain world leaders try to grab a bigger cut of the diminishing pie and throw a few bombs around.
ASX up 4, and there's a new announcement. Good news maybe? Can someone post it, I can't get it yet.
Edit - here it is, listed as price sensitive by AWE but not PPP or NZO
AWE Ltd (“AWE”) reports that the Taranui-1 well is being plugged and abandoned and
at 0600 hours today was completing operations prior to the release of the drilling rig
from the Taranui location.
During the week, a comprehensive suite of wireline logs were successfully completed,
including pressure testing and fluid sampling of both the Kapuni F and D Sands. A
small volume of oil was recovered from the Kapuni D sands during this sampling
programme. The data is still being reviewed, but initial indications are that these
zones will not be commercially significant.
Following completion of the abandonment operations at Taranui, the rig will move to
commence operations on West Cape-1 in PEP 38481
1...wanna beat... a supply side constraint could change NZO dramatically... oil $100 -> how many barrels net to NZO a few million right... say 4m.... whats $30*4million mackdadunk... (very rough calc)...Quote:
mackdadunk-
1....The price of oil wont make to much difference to your oil shares.
2.....The companies will be spending more finding less, or do you think they will stand still until they go under with nothing left to sell?.
3.....The various GOVTS will tax the last oil to the hilt.
4..... The shareholders will be left as usual in the end with slim pickings.
5....Most of the oil is undiscovered in the artic and antartic regions of the world so look forward to a bit of global warming to uncover that lot.
6.... Lots of water to flow under the bridge before we need to really be concerned. With NZO we know what they have got, but whats next is more to the point, where to from here?. Macdunk
2... Yes companies will be spending more as industry costs rise due to demand increase as price of oil rises..., but technology improvement is increasing success rate of oil stirkes to offset some of this, as well as higher oil prices decreasing project risk... shell, and spec oilers will be hit the most by rising industry costs...
its no different for any other industry that faces increased costs..
3...yes Tax is a component of This industry, as oil creates externalities...
no different for other industries
also depends which country you are in as to how you get treated... NZ govt has made it attractive enough for the oil majors to attack the GSB....
4....Somehow I dont think that I will be left with slim pickings... depends on what stocks you hold...theres big growth plays in this industry...
5....Yes global warming is an issue, and many see gas as the future of this industry...im not debating global warming with you MD, you never listen...
:D
6.... As you know mr mackdadunk, NZO is in the process of getting 3 projects up and running... and now NZO is down to two projects to get kick started.... The First project - Tui, was a major success, reserves upgrades, full flow rates with little problem other than a slight delay...
... NZO now has solid cashflow and how they grow from here is anyones guess, But NZO DONOT need to gain other assets, new projects to get SP growth... NZO has the growth channel set and exploration success from here on in is a bonus, NZO will sail when Pike gets sorted... Dividends are a major issue and I will be raising my points at the AGM if I go... NZO should be looking for a strategy of gaining acerage and farming down big chunks and be free carried, or close to it....
three diversifed producing projects will make NZO a lucurative investment...the ones that spot it early will be better off... markets will determine what happens
NZO will be a long term cashcow.......Pike is discounting NZO big time...
....
Mackdadunk, recently you have been posting where your not really having ago at NZO but your referring to the oil industry as a whole...And you dont sound like a fan of it after getting burnt by NZO... yourve been scared away by one oiler that didnot go in your way of thinking at the time, and now you understand more about how companies re-rate .... dont let that scare you away mate... making a stance against the oil industry is a bad move on your part...
lata...
:cool:
.^sc
SHREWDY, I noticed you were smart enough to get out of NZO even although it was a little late in the play. You managed to join me on the other side of the ditch to take advantage of our over priced dollar. I dont care if a company drills for oil or manufactures atomic weapons as long as the sp trends up if my money is in it. I Find the miners are easier to predict, and just as volatile, with less chance of coming a gutser as spec oilers.
Interested in your opinion on the options. I say its pass the parcel at the end, i cant see the sp increase by a third in ten months unless NZO start a big buy back to raise the share price. A good TA exit strategy would have scored you a big win with NZO, make sure you follow PHAEDRUSES exit system with your CUE. Look forward to meeting you again sometime, dont get to hung up in any company. They are only there to make us money no more and no less. MACDUNK
So, they've spent a whole week at Taranui, (and still not finished), since last week's announcement. Running further tests. Probably not commercial quantities of oil they say, yet they spent a lot of time there making sure. Expensive time - let's hope they found some useful data to add to the big picture of the whole area.
No DaDunk needs 100% to get the ood's down to his price.
JEEZE I was only taking easy on my mate SHREWDY. If you work it out from the other end $1-50 against a dollar today it is a third. But regardless of my bad mathematics, what do you reckon the parcel is worth in ten months time?. Unless they buy back the shares to raise the price the options have had it. The question is have they got enough up top to work it out?. I dont think they will have the brains to manipulate the price then sell back to the gullable at profit. Macdunk
You never answered the question C-MON be a winner sixtiyniner what are the options worth on the last day?. My old mate SHREWDY tried to teach him how to strut like MVT, hopeless case mate, hopeless, but he will come right with a good boot up the backside. Shot over to AUS dumpted his bundle here, the money is still worth something over there. Macdunk
Why don't NZO release the following type announcement.
"We are making a lot of money. We know that PRC is seriously undervalued. We are going to increase our stake by buying on market up to 5% of PRC."
The PRC price would have to increase given only 128K on the offer & then the NZO price would follow & then the ood's would too
I really dont want to disillussion you but if they did that, then bastards like me would buy up big then sell back to the blue eyed brigade. The truth is nobody knows the value of PRC until the numbers come out. The traders would take you to the cleaners mate. MACDUNK
mackdadunk,
I hung onto the ods Initially because I was going to get out at the top of Hector, and thats what I told others here and around.... But at the top of hector ODs were 23cents and they had been much higher than 30cents at one stage (34,34?)... OD's were 23-4 cents just before final announcement for Hector.... so I felt that I may just aswell hold through, and then ODs fell to below 20cents that day after ann came through... Tui first production was delayed, And I thought Tui first production would offset bad hector and Taranui drill because it is a monster asset of NZO's....When I realised that the reratings had come and SP wasnt moving then I sold, and the reserves upgrades announcement made no impact on the fact that it came after id sold...... First production ann was made on one of the worst market days of the year...I showed my inexperience with my portfolio when the market pealed like banana, I admit that....asset protection was more important than if I was right or wrong...
.... I can still soldier along and build...
and right now had market held strong,....
NZO would be around $1.3 where I said it would be... Id be sitting on a 2bagger here cackling... In the end I got quarter of that return from nzood...
the whole re-rating process that I felt I understood was blurred by the market conditions, and the markets no confidence with NZO made it worse, Pike compounded when that flopped....so maybe Market looked at AWE for direction of NZO on how to rerate TUI... AWE barely moved... AWE has its own project problems and is not appropriate for guidance of NZO and maybe market didnot understand this...
.....This 3 project company of NZO is misunderstood ...The lead up to Hector, SP should have been real strong with no selling off and buyers chasing, but it was getting sold and falling...In the end the market hasnot given a stuff about Tui production and SP and nzood is not much more than what it was when I was first raging bull to buy this one..... Pike is discounting NZO further too...
....
I do believe that ODs will be in the money next year as long as the NZX50 is around 4000-4500+ points.... It will be no problem if market is convinced that production at pike is a dead cert... and first prduction begins before option conversion, it may take one big buyer such as an institution or the Indians buying in the end to get the ODs over the line... Its a dammn big call... And I did make a beat with you mackdadunk that you never replied to... and that was if nzood are converted in the money then you would come to the national convention?
your coming anyway, why not just make it into abit of a story...:D...
:cool:
.^sc
Hi Fellas just out......
11/09/2007
MINE REL: 1310 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited MINE: NZO: NZOG'S TARANUI-1 DRILLING REPORT New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd ("NZOG") reports that the Taranui-1 well is being plugged and abandoned and at 0600 hours today was completing operations prior to the release of the drilling rig from the Taranui location. During the week, a comprehensive suite of wireline logs were successfully completed, including pressure testing and fluid sampling of both the Kapuni F and D Sands. A small volume of oil was recovered from the Kapuni D sands during this sampling programme. The data is still being reviewed, but initial indications are that these zones will not be commercially significant.
SHREWDY, Its not if this happened or nobody understands the company, all that matters is will the sp rise or fall. I dont give a damn about a company, they are only employed by me to show a rise in the share price. I couldnt care less what they get up to, as long as the sp trends up, and if not i dump them. Miners oil companies whatever, i only buy what i think will trend up. We have to meet again sometime so that i can give you some more lessons on strutting you havent quite mastered that. You still never said what you think the options are worth at pass the parcel time. Your old mate Macdunk
1.....you should have bought nzood when I said then huh..many moons ago you seemed to care alot more about the disclosure principle rather than company performance......Quote:
mackdadunk-
1.......Its not if this happened or nobody understands the company, all that matters is will the sp rise or fall. I dont give a damn about a company, they are only employed by me to show a rise in the share price. I couldnt care less what they get up to, as long as the sp trends up, and if not i dump them.
2....Miners oil companies whatever, i only buy what i think will trend up.
3....We have to meet again sometime so that i can give you some more lessons on strutting you havent quite mastered that.
4....You still never said what you think the options are worth at pass the parcel time. Your old mate Macdunk
2.... How come you never buy any oilers then? DO you not think they will trend up?
3.... yes, we can meet when you lose the nzood conversion beat, and you make your way to the NC... then we can go toe to toe again... haha...
4...You have said before that it is already pace the parcel time !... My screen is saying 10.7cents per nzood.... haha...thats what they are worth... haha
:p....
can you define pace the parcel time for me and then I will reply with an honest answer
its not at christmas is it?
:D
.^sc
Lion you raise a very good point about the time at Taranui. I am greatly incouraged that many tests were run.It hints to me that TUI may have more oil in it somewhere between Pateke to Taranui. Regardless of the market reaction i find this result much improved on last week. This will be another good point for the AGM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsurf
Why don't NZO release the following type announcement.
"We are making a lot of money. We know that PRC is seriously undervalued. We are going to increase our stake by buying on market up to 5% of PRC."
The PRC price would have to increase given only 128K on the offer & then the NZO price would follow & then the ood's would too
Quote by MacDunk
I really dont want to disillussion you but if they did that, then bastards like me would buy up big then sell back to the blue eyed brigade. The truth is nobody knows the value of PRC until the numbers come out. The traders would take you to the cleaners mate. MACDUNK
Er no, as always - please float back down to earth - NZO are announcing then bastards like you would buy up big - then you can hold the parcel til NZO start buying at thier leisure.
I am not involved - just pointing out that it would send a positive message by NZO for pee all $
.
China's August Crude Oil Imports Jump 19% as Economy Expands
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...0&refer=energy
You could not have got your assumptions more wrong.
NZO would come across as the biggest idiot of all times as NZO cannot just buy 5%.
Under the takeover code, NZO would need to buy up to at least 50% and launch a formal bid.
There will be plenty of disappointed PRC shareholders very happy to sell out to NZO at $1.15.
Watch NZO share price drop like a lead balloon.
Balance
I'll ask you again, as you have a tendency to come on "knock a poster" spread your poison & run...
Are you holding any NZO/NZOOD/PRC?
Correcting someone who is so wrong with his/her assumptions is 'knock a poster' ? More like stopping him/her from serious misjudgements and errors, don't you agree?
I like reading this thread - it's a study in human behaviour and if I can point out the errors of the ways of some of the postings, I am happy to help out.
What so you're above any criticism yourself?
Who made you the authority on NZO, that you can point out errors?
You asked for a valuation a few pages back, i gave you one, no comment, why?
I don't see any disclosure anywhere from you, why?
You show up only to highlight bad news, & put your spin on it, why?
Try using some "balance' like your username suggests...
Do Sharebroker/Minder/Haka/Icehot/Sniper mean anything to you?
If you want ANY credibility on this thread, try answering some questions.
We all know the risks involved when investing in O&G companies, as well as coal companies, its the risk v reward we are after.
well said shasta balance put you money where your mouth and explain to us your superior investments ?
Well I am still awaiting as to why Balance wants to send the first shipment of coking coal from Taranaki to Newcastle.
Sometimes a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
Cmon Balance tell me it was a slip of the tongue. I mean we can have our fun on this thread but when it comes to facts let's get it right. yeah Right.
I am off for a month so all the best to all.Including you Balance.
why is it going to Newcastle? I thought it was going to Mumbai?
hmmm...no comment on the new Huntleys report on NZO out today?
Confirms FY08 NPAT est of $37m. Puts NZO on a PE of 6.5.
Looks OK value in my book.
Kupe gas field costs skyrocket
By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Wednesday, 12 September 2007
Email a Friend | Printable View | Have Your Say
ROBERT KITCHIN/Dominion Post
FULL STEAM AHEAD: The oil and gas market is overheated with lots of projects, and suppliers are spoilt for choice, Kupe project director Peter Ashford says.
The giant Kupe gas project in Taranaki will cost 10 per cent more than the original estimate of $980 million, as world prices for equipment and hire of drilling rigs rocket up in an overheated market.
Weather delays could also add to rising costs in the next six months, as the project moves into its big offshore campaign, with a well drilling rig due to arrive next month.
The Kupe gas field is about 30 kilometres off the south Taranaki coast, and the project also involves a big processing plant onshore, near Hawera.
The world oil industry was still catching up with hurricane damage done to equipment in the Gulf of Mexico two years ago, and cost increases since then had been huge, Kupe project director Peter Ashford said yesterday.
"The oil and gas market is very overheated with a lot of projects, and suppliers are spoilt for choice. Suppliers name their price and their schedule."
There were few projects on schedule or budget and Kupe was suffering in a "challenging environment", with prices rising by the day, Mr Ashford said.
In 2005, Kupe was expected to cost $800 million, but a year earlier the cost was put at $400 million.
Australian company Origin Energy is operator of the project and a 50 per cent shareholder in Kupe, with state-owned power company Genesis holding 31 per cent.
Origin also owns 51 per cent of Contact Energy. Origin is presently trying to raise $200 million from New Zealand investors through the issue of preference shares.
Gas from the Kupe field is expected to flow from the middle of 2009. Reserves are estimated at 250 petajoules. Kupe will be big enough to supply about 15 per cent of New Zealand's present total gas demand.
However, Kupe is just a fraction of the size of the massive Maui gas field and its estimated 3562PJ.
While Kupe will not comment on the price for its gas, Pohokura gas was said by industry experts to cost about $6.50 a gigajoule - about 2.5 times more than the original cheap Maui gas. A petajoule is one million gigajoules, indicating 170PJ could be worth about $1 billion.
Kupe locked in the cost of the well drilling rig at the end of 2005, and some other equipment in the middle of last year, when the final decision to go ahead with the project was made, but other costs have risen.
When the partners moved to putting in final orders, prices had risen by as much as 25 per cent. In other cases, some installation equipment had been locked in for half the present day cost, Mr Ashford said.
The project cost could go even higher, if the weather slowed down planned offshore work.
Short article from todays Market Watch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- October crude climbed 74 cents to close at $78.23 a barrel Tuesday, marking the highest closing level for the front-month contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. OPEC agreed to raise actual production levels by 500,000 barrels per day and lift the cartel's quota to 27.2 million barrels per day as of Nov. 1, according to news reports. But Charles Perry, chairman of Perry Management said "just about everyone is skeptical of OPEC increasing their production very much" with many members near their peak production.
Seems the world is a little short of oil at the moment.
...and the Northern winter yet to come..
Balance - there is a word for overly pedantic people who concentrate on words instead of the message - okay PRC borrow off NZO & then buy 5% - hope you make money being right - go on - have a go.
Re Kupe cost blowout.
Shareholders can live with the current cost increases. However, surely there is a risk to NZO option holders that the project leaders (Origin) come out with an unwelcome budget update just weeks before the NZO option exercise date.
If this is coupled with further teething problems down at PRC then NZO manangement would be faced with an almost impossible task of convincing the market that the NZO SP is worth $1.50 a share or more.
Its all about the timing, and unfortunately the exercise date for the od's is a year too early.
You could be right Toddy, in which case maybe NZO could think about adding a year onto the life of the ODs and adjust to exercise price upward by a few cents to compensate for risk. They did this with the OB's some years back so it can be done.
Aspect Huntley have updated their report on NZO, reiterate accumulate rating.
That is my thinking two Arjay.Since the OD's were issued some of the events have taken place but a lot of them have been delayed.In fact only 1 of the 3 projects will be up and running by then.These delays are beyond the company but giving the options a longer life as with the OB's is the way to go.. Another point of discussion for the AGM.
any one know the Tui gas lift cost per barrel ?
The WTI price passed US$80 a barrel,but of coa-rse that is with a purchaseing US of about half what it used to be.Even the Kiwi went up against the US in last 24 hours.We still have some exposure to the Us if the WTI goes above 85 which i think it will.I do not well understand this forward cover thing and when it kicks in. The confusion is around
collapsing US dollar,but it looks like we will lose on a small number of barrells[about 350 thousand from memory.
is tapis keeping its premium over the other typres of oil ?
.
Yesterday's Tapis price was nudging US$82 / barrel
http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm
Todays Nymex oil price is up approximately US$1.5 compared to yesterdays price so I'm expecting Tapis to be up again today -- we will see today's price tomorrow when the the AIP graph is updated for Tapis !!
For current Nymex, Brent and WTI see Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/com...rgyprices.html
If someone doesnt wake up & give NZO a kick, a predator will start accumulating it!
Meanwhile another week has by gone & approx another 6250bopd x 7 = 43750 barrels to NZO.
Say @ $US70 & (NZ/USD 0.70) = $NZ100 barrel (nice round number...)
Revenue/Cashflow of $NZ4,375,000 per week!:eek:
Tinker with the figures to suit people, but its happening, every week the cheques roll in...:D
and on a current market cap of 280 mill including options
Nice upside potential aye?
I used $NZ100 a barrel as a conservative estimate in case our resident NZO knocker comes out from under his rock...
Was using 12.5% of 50,000bopd in my example, last figure that was announced was 47,000 so i figure they'd have sorted it out by now!
Roughly $NZ5m a week then, equates to around $60m per quarter...
Now, wheres that re-rate gone again? :confused:
The Dominion Post | Friday, 14 September 2007
Motorists are being warned to expect further fuel price increases as oil prices hit a record high of $US80 ($NZ112) a barrel.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4200948a10.html
nzo's call options are likley to kick in at some time. i think the figure was around the 84 or 85 mark.
balance. i guess you figure the put options will kick in any time soon aye. lol
Poor perception of NZO management is the problem, methinks.
Very easy for that $60M/quarter to be worth $0M/quarter, espec if they pour it down a duster.
I think this stock will re-rate in an instant with positive news on what they are to do with that money.
Being an NZO shareholder I love this oil price surge :D:D:D....oh hang on ..damn.. have to fill the car for the weekend :(:(:(
should be an interesting agm thios year thats for sure
Friday, 14 September 2007
Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
THE July commissioning of the $US269 million Tui Area oil fields development off Taranaki, New Zealand threw up some surprises with one well initially failing to produce and the expected high water cut not eventuating, according to Australian Worldwide Exploration's New Zealand operations manager Dennis Washer.
The Tui field is named after a New Zealand native bird
"There were some sober faces when Tui-2H died on us, but with some rocking it came back in gangbusters," Washer told the 2007 New Zealand Oil and Gas Conference in New Plymouth on Wednesday.
Since that first oil on July 31, two more development wells from the Tui, Amokura and Pateke oil pools had been successfully brought onstream and "on several occasions we have reached the limit", he said, referring to the 50,000 barrels per day maximum processing ability of the Umuroa FPSO.
"These wells have now really demonstrated their ability to deliver," said Washer, adding that the fields had produced about 1.63 million barrels of waxy crude in the first 44 days of production.
Only three wells, with a combined production capacity well in excess of 100,000bpd, were presently needed and they were being choked back to 50,000bpd limit. The fourth well would be brought onstream later to maintain production flows.
Washer said initially there had been negligible water cut, now there was about 15,000barrels of water per day, and the company expected more water "any day now".
Washer said AWE's projections for the Tui Area fields was for output to have declined to about 17,800bpd after a full year of production, while water cut might have increased to 102,000 barrels of water per day.
Over 50% of the estimated 2P (proved plus probable) 32 million barrels of oil would be recovered with water cut of over 90%.
"This will essentially be an oil-skimming factory," he said.
The economic limit for the project, with oil priced at only $US50 per barrel, was about 2400bpd, so there should be many years of commercial production ahead.
Washer said Schlumberger's downhole tool, commonly known as "the periscope", had allowed the horizontal sections of the wells – a total of 5800m – always to be drilled within the top 2m of the reservoirs to maximise oil recovery.
A fourth shipment, of about 600,000 barrels, had recently been exported, he added.
The Tui partners are operator AWE (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).
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This was taken from a report on FIXX by kiwikauri.
Note Shasta now accurate our gross income for NZO was from TUI.
!.63 million in 44 days make 523,267 per day. We guessed about 500,000 so not too bad.
Also note that by AGM time we should have taken enought out of TUI to make a more accurate estimate of recoverable oils from those wells. My thinking and have to say mind only is that by the time 10% is harvested the size of the field should to clear.
Digger, my calculation says 1.63 m barrels in 44 days is 37,000 per day, average.
is there anyone well informed who can assist in explaining a bit more about the prospects left. as far as im aware, nzo has share in as follows:
-felix 75%
-toke and mataku 12.5%
-Denby, momoho and leith 15%
what other prospects are there that people are aware of? is hector south still to be drilled?
My off the cuff calculation is that nzo share equates to 5000 barrels a day at $80 US which equals 400,000 per day at an exchange rate averaging 70 cents which equals 570.000 nz dollars per day gross or about 17 million dollars per month !
This is far more than anticipated even 3 months ago .
Can this be true or have I made a fundamental error ?
im guessing hes busy trying to correct us in our calculations . im guessing he might have to correct us as we might of been a bit conservative with our figures so far haha .Though i know there is no chance of balance being balanced when talking about NZO, heres hoping though.
Lion,correct.Lets do it your way with a few more figures shown.
1.63 div by 44= 37045
37045 div by 12.5%=4630 NZO share per day.
4630 times 113=523258 Dollars per day NZO
Note several things here.First is that this is start up figures so will get better. Second the rate for nz dollars and current price has only just reached the good figures shown,so for the 44 days will be less.That also means that going forward things will probably get better.Cheers
when is end of year ? or 6 month reporting due ?
when financials are disclosed, and if they are as good as we all estimate, re rating
will follow....?
The next time we see there cashpiles should be in the September Quarterly Activities & Cashflow report due out by the end of October.
As there Balance date is 30 June, we should be due audited accounts anytime soon prior to the October AGM (though Tui wasnt in production at that point.)
Tui's Umuroa is not out of the woods yet with the commissioning, guys. There appear to be a number of issues around the gas compressors ( where is the Roo man?) that need to be resolved. Operations/production shuts down in a fault mode which isnt good for the magic number of 50,000 bpd. Who knows there may even be problems with compliance issues ;)
Dennis Washer did say that by now they were expecting a lot more water but so far it has been minimal, which is a positive but there is no doubt the water will kick in.
Oiler 2-those sound like very minor problems to be expected.
You cant get away from the facts of the phenomenal production with less water and more reserves than expected . Currently tui is producing over nz $5 million per day = 150,000,000 per month .
It looks to me as if the value of this production has been grossly under-estimated.
We havnt seen a calculation of net profit but with expenses being fixed i can see a scenario such as this for tui in the first year
fixed expenses 250 million if gross income is 750 million profit = 500 million but if gross income is 1250 million profit = 1000
In later years of production this effect becomes magnified-
say at year 5 expenses 300 million gross income 400 million -profit =100 million
but if gross income is $800 million profit is 500million-5 times as much !
And of course this allows production to go on at lot longer .
Wouldnt it be great at the agm if were given a range of scenarios -from the negative to the positive-then we could look at those scenarios -and each to their own believe what they want to believe .
Oiler2,if the JV can get the present figures with the bad news of not yet being completely successful with commissioning,then who needs good news.
The biggest negative i can see is that we could run out of tax losses in one year.We have about 100million and that will take 200 days.Given that about 1/3 will be costs add another 100 days and we will be stuffed for tax losses in one year.I would have thought Balance would have picked that up and hammered it home.
Didnt NZO state they were going to return 1/2 net profits as Dividends ?
email the management ask them, personally I think dividend unlikely. I think they would save it for cost blow outs at Pike.
What I can confirm is though, first coal is not going to Newcastle.
I remember seeing something about the possibility of dividends. in a nutshell it all came down to what was best for the business. i read that as firstly as using up tax credits, reducing or wiping off debts, having strong balance sheet for potential takeover targets, explorations or increase in capex. therefore any dividend would be minimal. perhaps wait until 2009 at the earliest is my guess. when kupe and pike starts producing then there is good support for handing out a divy. my pick...2009
hey sideline,
the may presentation on nzog.net states those figures.
wouldnt have made too much sense if the options had expired before production and all..
on another note, i liked that word nita used that we havent heard for a while - explorations!
so who knows anything about felix, toke (and the rest gained with this permit area) , kupe sites and hector south..?
at this stage their pumping full steam ahead, and collecting cash, and by 2009 2010 they will be collecting cash from the other 2 projects. the grey zone is ..... how is tui going to perform in the next 2 years? If it starts to go downhill faster than expected....... they will need the suport of shareholders, if it declines at a slower rate, and keeps feeding cash till the other 2 projects are on stream......... then....... there is a possibility of using the cash surplus to buy back ALL the shares and delist the company, sharing out the next 20 years of income for the elite top circle.
the guys at the top will be doing their maths now....... as the share price is soooo depressed, and doing a buy back now or soon( once they have the well forcast) would be a real coup.
the future income of this company will be outstanding, its the grey zone we are in now that will make or break any closed door dealings....... and who will be party to it.
in the mean time, accumulate.
when do people belive a rerating might occur ?
Neopole
Under your scenerio above, who would buy the shares back?
The company cannot buy back more than 5% of its own capital (as per its constitution), it would also need shareholder & NZX approval to do so.
Now, IF NZO had a majority shareholder who wanted to buyout the minorities, they could mount a takeover & delist the company, but we dont!
If I had wanted dividends there are any number of other companies on the NZX I would have invested in. But I didn't come to NZO for them.:)
they can only hold upto 5% as treasury, but they can buyback and cancel as much as they like.
thus, if management were to hold their shares and buyback and cancel, eventually they could be left with the controlling stake. that is eventually...imagine the price of those last few shares they would be trying to take over..it would become a massive price.
what do you mean by rerating boysy? pike has disappointed, but tui has offset that..i think we're about same as a few months back...?