My wife and myself have been scaled 25% already by my broker at Craigs.In fact he was not impressed that I rang to increase the amount we wanted to put in!!!!.
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I think you'll be 'looked after' couta, but there is one step yet to be taken, and that is the bookbuild. If a brokers bid is way off the pace, they could be severely scaled or miss entirely. Unlikely for smaller guys like DB who will probably submit a volume only bid, with acceptance of the set price, but there are three scaling events:
the bookbuild, from which the broker bid may be scaled at the outset,
the brokers internal client scaling, if the broker got less than sought at step one,
then, the Crown still has the right to scale the 'firm' allocations, at their discretion
Big picture here guys...I hope you guys are not "staging' this issue Im not a socialist by any means but I hope that folk are not deluged with headlines stating %20 gains on this IPO....like how would that go down with folk trying to reconcile there future investment intentions i.e. residential properties vs the productive and beneficial Sharemarket when it appears that those who can can make a fortune overnight...because they can....this is nuts...Am I being unreasonable...
Offcourse the big picture for me is looking forward to voting against Mrs Shipley's re-election whenever that comes up.!!!
I also think it will be a very safe investment,and the dividends will be double what I am earning on bank deposit.
Not looking to make a fortune overnight,just get a good return on the present fortune?!
my sentiments exactly percy, on all counts. This is not very likely to be a stag IPO, remember everyone called it a dog. A dog doesn't have antlers.
unfortunately, the Crown still have 51% of the votes for chairman.........but we can at least register our feelings
percy, I'm genuinely surprised you have already heard your allocation, as in theory the book build hasn't even closed yet (I think, you've got me wondering now)
and I pick the price to be 1.55
My wife and I share your sentiment Percy and will relish the prospect of voting Mrs Shipley out.
I have some Chorus shares to help my dividend return. That didn't work. Not to many so no damage done. But a bit of a lesson in what the regulatory/political world can inflict on us. In spite of this lesson...I have backed all the floats. Maybe it is misplaced parochialism.
Good luck to us all. As Snoopy says (See MRP) we have an opportunity in September to address who we think we should hold to account.
Hi Percy, and others, I find it intriguing that just as the GEN float is here then the other two power companies {MELCA and MRP} which have so far been lacklustre are now starting to shine brighter than before.
What is the message? Buy more GEN after the initial euphoria?
Just heard its 1.55 on news.
final IPO price set at $1.55
Dear JB..how do you intend to do that and why...cheers
If the dividend is really going to be 14.3% every year, then how does it make any sense for the government to be selling this? According to http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...is-share-price, selling at $1.55 raises them $736 million and the “The brokerage, legal and PR fees run into well over $100 million." , so that means they will make around $600 million from the sale which they would have made in 6 years via dividends ($736 * 14.3% = $105 mil, so 6 years to make back the 600 mil that they will actually get). But that is probably just my flawed view/calculation.
Dear shonen...did you include the 1 for 15...after what a year.../...is that about 6% also.....go for it...
How do you all feel about the price of 1.55? Undervalued? T
I stand to be corrected..but isn't the SP totally and utterly nonsensical...again I stand to be corrected....
you have an asset worth $100...2 shares are $50....ten shares are $10.....whats the difference....
I really hope to be corrected...
maybe not nonsensical but Im sure you lot get my drift
Damn, too late to get "firm allocation" from broker! I can't believe that retail allocation through general offer is only 9%!
I stand to be corrected, but I understood the book build worked like the market close in that you bid your qty/price thru your broker and therefore if your bid price was 1.55 or more, you would be assured of getting them subject to any scaling. Those that didn’t place an order or bid $1.54 or less will have missed out and will need to go thru the public pool unless brokers were permitted to place bids in excess of their client orders.
good, that's a fair price to all concerned - 49% of a dog sold at near top of range - I happily pick up a few to sit on for a few years as a yield play. I see pumpkin head Cosgrove has come out with his usual commentary, yawn....followed by the horsetralian...yawn againQuote:
and I pick the price to be 1.55
thats it for asset sales - no more to come - end of story I would have thought
what about Kiwibank, do you think there is any prospect of its sale in Nationals third term?
Unlikely, they have said time and again they have no intention of selling Kiwibank - and also that Genesis was the last in the program. Too much risk of public backlash.
Just had a read through and seems to be better than the other 2. im really thinking this could be a good stag. cheeky little 10 odd % for a few minutes work
I haven't read the whole thread, or the whole prospectus yet, but again, (ref other generation IPO's) there seems to be an emphasis on high yield provided by high cash flow with a concerning low earnings.
Aren't you actually paying $1.55 for $0.042 ?
Attachment 5637
Had a look at NZX website again and found under "independent research reports" 5 reports but they haven't been activated yet
Had a quick look into the offer as well and agree. According to the official numbers (check: https://d.genesisenergyshares.govt.n...4/#p=3&c=0&v=1) do they offer (apart from the one off bribe of 1 in 15 bonus shares) a company with a quite high P/E and not particularly attractive long term perspectives. The gas will run out over time and electricity generation prices are for some time unlikely to rise. In addition to that has Genesis the most unattractive mix of power plants of all (big) power companies in NZ (coal and gas fired vs renewables).
Will stay clear of this offer - feel free to pick up my allocation. Did a quick on the back of an envelope calculation - the shares start getting interesting if & when they drop below $1.30. I am happy to wait for that und invest my money until this point in time into more promising ventures :D
^The p.e is VERY HIGH and the electricity volumes are declining all over the countryby about 1% per year . This years p.e. is above 30. Stag it.
Rough calculation if you obtain 30k shares in order to obtain 2k max bonus shares, 30k x 1.55 =46500x14.3%=6649.5 gross dividend plus 2k bonus shares at 1.55 =3100 Total =9749.5 Gross profit if you sell after a year, Of course could be significantly more if shares are worth $2 in a years time which is quite possible,your 30 k shares will then be worth an extra 13500 at $2 plus bonus shares plus dividend basically an extra 27k at $2 all up,Why stag it,just hold for a year
Breakeven after 1 year is approx $1.35 taking into account net forecast dividend and bonus shares issued. Seems like they are putting lipstick on a pig but basically from issue price you can lose 13% over a year and be square (apart from the holding/opportunity cost).
Of course Mighty River Power is still behind by about 12-13% approaching a year on the boards but we've had 2 dividends totalling a net 8.3cps and it is hard to see this being more of a disaster than what happened with MRP. At if National win the election Genesis might be one of the best 12-month returns on the NZX with the dividend and bonus shares.
IS this the worst of the big energy companies but the best 1-year investment?
Research Reports are now available on NZX . Am relieved as my broker is pushing for a commitment re how many if any i want. Needing more income i am favouring the idea but for now its reading the research. Thanks for peoples thoughts .
5 reports avaliable on the NZX site. Looks like all say buy with Morningstar being the most conservative with a $1.60 price
Asked for 55k worth have obtained firm allocation of 50k so will get max bonus shares,Happy:cool:
And two highest $1.97
Where on the NZX website are the Research Reports? Thanks
EPS from 3 Analysts 2013 8.1 c, 10.5c , 9c 2014 4.6c , 8.7c , 5c 2015 9.1c , 10.3c ,10c 2016 10.5c , 8.6c
Looks like demand is very strong-asb is limiting allocations to 50% of indicative.
How does one (with a ASB share trading account) request/apply for a firm allocation? Do they call them up? Or apply via the official Genesis website?
You should've got an email from ASB today. I clicked on the link and it auto picked up ASB securities.
Okay if direct broking is giving clients nearly a full allocation and asb is only 50% then what gives?
Is it because direct only had fewer people wanting genesis so were easliy able to fill there aplications and the opposite at asb?
or was more shares given to institutions over mum and dads at brokers?
or was it everyone just wanted to hugly increase there purchase amounts for this ipo over the other pwer cos
did asb not get there allocation they wanted and direct did?
odd i must say what ya think
Seems
I wonder how many people requested a prospectus from their broker but instead got sent an investment statement? The actual prospectus was difficult to find and I eventually found it here:
https://d.genesisenergyshares.govt.nz/prospectus/
There is a much fuller evaluation of risk in the real prospectus.
SNOOPY
One point that doesn't seem to be sufficiently highlighted in the investment statement is what happens to the balance between customers and generation should Tiwai point reduce its consumption even further? Genesis has a take or pay gas contract with Kupe, the gas field they partly own. The need to buy gas when cheaper sources of generation were available has blighted the company in recent years, as it will in FY2014 and FY2015. Genesis make much of the fact that should they choose to, they can ramp up production at Huntly and service all their own customers for which they currently buy energy on the wholesale market.
But if Huntly has to close, and of all the power stations in NZ it is the most likely candidate for closure IMO that would throw the generation customer balance at Genesis completely out of whack. The Genesis customer base for electricity could then collapse overnight as rival energy customers control their own generation to force up wholesale prices to bring Genesis to its knees. I am thinking back here to what happened to Transalta in NZ when they ended up as a pure retailer against the Gentailers and got destroyed. I don't think things would get that bad at Genesis, but the company could be forced to suddenly have in size, which would do shareholders no good at all...
SNOOPY
Quick question. Do you need to wait for 3 working days after selling your shares to pay for the IPO or can you sell the shares then apply straight away.
Im getting a little worried now about this heavy scaling from asb and lack of it from direct broking from comments ive read here why? we havnt seen this much scaling for the other ipo's so my biggest concern is have the institutuions been loaded up at the expense of the little fella if so where is the buying going to come from on listing if the institutions got the bulk of shares in the bookbuild.
Maybe not for you bull if you're concerned; what are your motives here, a great D/Y or a stag and/or FOMO?
bull.... if they put in a low bid price, they would be heavily cut back - it could be as simple as that.
I don't see ASB as being a big player in the scheme of things - they are retail online primarily. DB have the backing and support of ANZ, so possibly carry a bit more weight when it comes to obtaining firm allocations.
You have to remember, the vast majority end up with the lead organisers and the top distribution channels, and in this particular case, I would think a lot of insto's would have been in for it, having been harshly scaled out of Meridian.
It is not an even playing field, thats for sure
"ASB Securities did contact a small group of clients (namely for our Margin Lending and Nominee Clients) to register their interest in the Broker Offer. We placed a bid for shares, and unfortunately this was severely scaled. I am sorry, but we are unable to accept any further interest in the Broker Offer."
Yeah. Id say that they were wanting more fees than other brokers, hence the smaller allocation
Smaller broker bidders are best to be a price taker, get a fair amount, even if scaled, and be happy with the brokerage fee, rather than try to finesse the pricing
tsk tsk
I haven't heard from my broker yet, so I just sent him this
Attachment 5642
Forbar scaled back my allocation 60%
I've been allocated 55% of the top end of what I wanted, but admittedly gave my broker a range, so can't really complain, and on the upside, if the price does head south after listing I've got some cash ready to go.
Agree with what you are saying Balance, but the disussion was about the small end of town brokers
If buying just through the Genesis website (no broker) what are the chances of getting all shares applied for?
Slim...
With brokers advising clients to go for more shares through the public pool,and the issue getting positive media coverage,demand will greatly exceed supply.
So not first in first served? Had 10000 lined up. Apparently it will take 3 days to process and debit funds from my CMA account
[QUOTESo not first in first served? ][/QUOTE]
Never has been.
Depending on how much your broker values your business, so goes the extent to which your "allocation" will be met. A matter of demand exceeding supply and brokers needing to allocate shares to (their) best advantage.
:mellow:
i got the same message, even though I am one of those customers (though not a big investor) with no instructions on how a nominee account person applies.
Shocking customer service - they didn't even read my email - just send out the pro forma reply that didn't apply to me.
Looks like I have received all 12500 I applied for - through the Genesis website. They have debited full amount from my account.
How about that Percy double posts at exactly the same time:cool:
Ok - thanks for the info.
So peeps,
1. what's the best strategy for the public pool then ? Just apply for the max ?
2. what is the best bet on the % of that that I will actually get. So if I apply for the max - that's 30k shares I think - what will I likely end up with?
cheers
Andrew
For those who have firm allocations through a broker the max they can be scaled is 20% so on the above example you couldn't get less than $37200 worth,public pool is a lucky dip as nothing is firm except $1000 worth
Given this is the last of the Govt IPO, I would really love them to come out and say, we've changed our minds, we will be favouring the public pool over the institutional pool. Public pool wont be scaled and the intitutional pool will be scaled as required.
Vote winning sh!t that. ;)
Not sure where your broker gets that 70% figure from,maybe he hasn't got you a firm allocation,the max scaling that can apply to a firm allocation is 20% quoting from the DB website and confirmed by phone ie the crown can only apply a max scaling of 20% to broker firm ,firm allocations,cheers
That would be consistant with the previous two IPO's. With MRP, 80% of retail got what they wanted and with MEL, 95% of retail got 90% of what they wanted.
Expect there to be a limit where you get everything you want with a progressive scaling after that so the big boys cant use the public pool to top up their broker pool allocations.
Is it possible to apply again through public pool?
I have applied for 12500 so I will most likely only get 2500?
So can I re apply with another 12500 shares and get another 2500 and be scaled again?
I had a good result with DB. Think I got my full allocation - 35,400 shares.
Now only need the IPO be a success.
Good luck to all investors.
Gaz
[QUOTE=Harvey Specter;470933]That would be consistant with the previous two IPO's. With MRP, 80% of retail got what they wanted and with MEL, 95% of retail got 90% of what they wanted.
yea that doesnt seem to apply this time as retail seem to being scaled big time, so my point being who is getting all the shares?
Hey Gaz,
How do you know that you possibly received your full allocation? Did you receive some kind of confirmation through DB?