Bell Potter's review of the Aust banking sector.
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/73ce8c...ember_2016.pdf
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Bell Potter's review of the Aust banking sector.
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/73ce8c...ember_2016.pdf
All "four pillars" now trading at or near 12 month highs.
I trust those earlier shorts managed to cover themselves!
;)
Yeah man, the ANZ's been pretty good since buying last November. Long on this one with the DRP. Shame ANZ & WBC are the only two which offer nz imputation.
This guy reckons WPC will halve ...so the BIG SHORT
http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...22-guj633.html
"One of Guennouni's first shorts at Meridian is Westpac. Australian lenders stand to suffer more than global peers as expected changes to regulations on risk-weighted assets dampen profitability, Guennouni wrote in a 46-page short report published last month."
"The trade doesn't depend on a hard landing in China or a commodities rout, he wrote. Shares of Westpac, which he sees as the lender most exposed to this risk, may fall from 30 per cent to 50 per cent, he said, without specifying a time frame. Westpac declined to comment."
The article goes on to say:
"Betting against the local banks has been so unsuccessful that the trade has been nicknamed the "widow maker." Expectations for a local housing-market crash or a sharp deceleration in China's economy have failed to materialise for bearish investors waiting for lenders' stock prices to slump."
Guennouni counters:
"Most people have been shorting Australian banks as a part of a macro short on China and the economies linked to it," Guennouni said. Ours is "a bottom-up trade, not macro-driven."
Who to believe? I agree that banks will not be the one way bet they have seemed to be in the past going forwards. I haven't checked out Westpac specifically. But for ANZ the current shareprice is more than justified on a yield that seems sustainable, with all the recapitalisation as part of the changed banking regulations already done.
SNOOPY
A collapse of 30-50% would be massive..
Last time they had a huge drop was in 1990/91.
Can't remember whether they fell 30% or 50%.Australian Commercial property market caught them out.
This time it will be different,........................it will be Australian Residential property.!!..lol.
Prospects of being taken over by Kerry Packer focussed the boards' attention.!
This time it will be different,........................it will be Australian Residential property.!!..lol.
Lol indeed