Most AIR staff are really p*** off at Sharsies for buying their "free" shares near the peak, at more than $1.70 last year. Staff that took the cash option made a far better decision IMO. :D
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Most AIR staff are really p*** off at Sharsies for buying their "free" shares near the peak, at more than $1.70 last year. Staff that took the cash option made a far better decision IMO. :D
Yeah surely there could be some legal recourse when things go pear shaped for the 'sharsies customers'?! There must be some guidelines that are being overlooked, mismanagement, non disclosure or something. Cant believe people are still foolishly buying in at todays SP, like lambs to the slaughter house. Makes zero sense. Undoubtedly still a large drop in SP on it's way still post Cap Raise.
Had a very brief look through the "refueling" marketing document on the weekend. I say very brief because I have little taste for seeing people shorn like sheep with no chance of growing back their coat before winter. The extent, type and level of various disclaimers is something that I have never seen the likes of before and breaks new ground for a capital raise on the NZX in my opinion. You can't even download the offer document unless you certify you're a resident in N.Z. or Australia and insert your address and postcode into their system.
I think the Govt should just be more honest about it, set up a charitable trust and ask for donations and make those donations tax deducible.
I would imagine Sharsies have covered their backside in a similar way with more disclaimers than I've had hot dinners this month.
Greg just invited me on board flight NZ0 .... cool eh
Didn't like the bit about not putting so much in ones luggage though
What about if they suggested we lose weight to create less carbon emissions lol
[Hmmm, you can save 100% of carbon by not choosing to make discretionary plane trips at all !Quote:
We've embarked on our most important journey yet – Flight NZ0™. And it’s not to New York, or Tokyo, or anywhere else you can find on a map.
It’s a journey to a new era of air travel. One that actively reduces the carbon we emit, until we reach our goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. And the time is now. Because aviation emits carbon at a rate that is too high and has for too long. And it’s up to us to embark on our biggest mission ever to change that.Flight NZ0™ is not just a name, it's a commitment that we will find a more sustainable way to connect with the world. It’s a commitment to our future passengers that they will experience the world we all know and love. And it’s a commitment to do whatever we can to reach our goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
We know it won’t be easy, and it can’t be solved overnight. It will take a combination of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), zero emissions aircraft technology, continued fleet renewal and ensuring our ground and flight operations are as efficient as possible. And for any remaining emissions, we will utilise credible carbon removal solutions.It will take partnerships, like the ones we have in place with Airbus, to explore the future of green hydrogen powered aircraft in New Zealand. And with the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment to understand how SAF could be produced in New Zealand.And it will take methods that don’t exist yet, but when they do, we will be ready.
Watch the video below to learn more about Flight NZ0™.
Flight NZO video
We would like to invite you to join us on this journey, so here are three ways you can make a difference while you travel with us:
Travel light! The heavier your luggage, the more fuel is required to get you to your destination. By leaving a few things at home, you’ll be helping us fly lighter, and reduce our carbon emissions.
Offset your flight. FlyNeutral lets you offset your share of a flight's carbon emissions with carbon credits from international projects, while accelerating biodiversity and climate outcomes in New Zealand.
Choose sustainable activities. Select from a wide range of fantastic Qualmark-awarded activities. These businesses have received the Qualmark award for their commitment to quality, safety, and sustainability.
So join us on Flight NZ0™ to see the actions we are taking to become a more sustainable airline.
Greg Foran
Ngā mihi nui,
Greg Foran
Chief Executive Officer[/I]
Do they still own the forests they bought?
Yes. If they were really serious they would set a combined weight allowance including the traveler. I would be up for jumping on the scales along with my luggage, you can imagine many would not be so keen. Imagine the furore if they so much as suggested that.
All the airlines trade in the magician's trick of distraction to assuage the guilt of the air traveler whilst keeping them an air traveler. Dont feel bad, we'll plant a tree for you. We already cancelled the daily papers in the Koru lounge, that should help a bit! Our new planes will use less fuel!
The uncomfortable truth is that we would probably have to go back to living consuming like in the 1950s to actually reduce emissions significantly, but who wants to talk about that...
Meanwhile, for the rest of us that actually live in the real World. I am at Ezeiza airport in Buenos Aires boarding a flight via Sao Paulo to Heathrow. Flights are full.
A friend is at Heathrow going the other way, same. Chocka.
I have friends travelling all over Europe. Flights are basically all full.
Meanwhile we are fed an utter load of rubbish and scaremongering in the NZ media. Wake up NZ.
Too true. None of the airlines want to be seen as environmental laggards in the middle of a "crisis", it is no wonder they are all working so hard to not be seen as massive polluters, but as part of the ... er ... solution. And just how far will the climate change evangelists push in this area? We had carless days in the past, why not flyless years? Or carbon emission limits per person. I say that tongue in cheek, but ideas can take a life of their own.
Air NZ will be wanting some positive PR. On the magic theme there is something mysterious keeping their SP where it is, and the more positive the sentiment the better to their SP afloat for a bit longer. Goodness knows it is not a level-headed evaluation of their business prospects!
This may be true in Europe and the Americas but isn't in Asia which is important to Air NZ. 400m odd middle to upper class Chinese aren't even allowed out of their apartments. People in Taiwan and SEA are also still very cautious.
Anyone know how the loads are on trans-tasman flights this month? A far more important market for Air NZ.
looks like it: https://www.drylandcarbon.co.nz/
interesting chat on sustainable aviation fuels and emissions costs here: https://consult.environment.govt.nz/...s-nz-ets-2022/ "Climate Change (Liquid Fossil Fuels) Regulations 2008 - Change the methodologies that opt-in participant and obligation fuel participants use to calculate emissions, so the full reduction in emissions caused by the opt-in participant’s supply of biofuel is part of their emissions return."
Exactly Beagle, They should just be upfront about it nd treat it like a charity to keep our national airline afloat. Rather than trying to misled or 'trick' the public into thinking it is such an amazing opportunity and deal. Just be more upfront about the numbers and why the share offer is 0.53c. Not mislead people into thinking its some kind of amazing bargain. And in fact that they should expect to see the SP drop to these levels after the cap raise so there is no surprise. Surprise can have a spiralling affect and create fear and in turn negatively affecting a share price more. If people (including newer investors) know to expect SP to settle in and stabilise around the Cap Raise price 0.53 it would be less likely to then see people sell out of fear if their cost average price is considerably higher 0.75 - 0.90 for example, cutting their losses when realise they didn't make a 'quick buck' out of this supposed amazing discount opportunity. It's just setting the whole thing up to collapse on itself once people realise what it all means when the dust settles. With their only aim being to try to squeeze as much money out of existing shareholders (who do not want to see their previous shares diluted in value), and new investors dumping money in to. Just to keep the airline afloat, but have complete disregard for the shareholders who will get stung in the backside. Air New Zealand has huge headwinds on all accounts and massive debt levels beyond which any other company would be sustainable to not be bankrupt.
As you say a much better approach would have been to incorporate tax deductible donations. And honesty from the government and AIR NZ as to the structure, meaning and reality of this.
What are folks guesses of when this unrealistic SP in the 0.8's take the next dive down? Are there that many fool hardy punters buying in at todays SP still, senseless.
Nicely said Maxtrade. Its well worth noting that the Govt's stake is being reduced down to 51% through this process so they want to maintain control but socialize as much of the losses as possible.
Why do they want to maintain control, some might wonder ? Well aside from the need to have crucial transport infrastructure for domestic travel at a reasonable price, (heaven forbid someone like Emirates dominating N.Z. domestic travel and prices) they need it for international freight but its well worth noting that even when AIR loses money each year and the Government don't get any direct income from company tax or dividends, they are still collecting hundreds of millions per annum from GST on domestic travel tickets and PAYE on all the staff salaries and wages.
The clear risk with this disingenuous refueling for recovery, maximum lipstick on a pig marketing story is that they might have to refuel again and possibly even a third time because this road to recovery could be a lot longer than they are leading people on, to believe. You could easily end up with a whole new generation of disillusioned investors who could legitimately claim they were lead up the garden path to be shorn like sheep with no mercy whatsoever for leaving a bit of the fleece on their bodies for the chilling winter of discontent that's coming as sure as night follows day...
Wondering whether this article in the herald (sorry, paywalled) is relevant for AIR's future:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...G25LG2NSQOXLA/Quote:
A New Zealand company is trying to raise close to $800 million for an ambitious project to link towns and cities with all-electric "sea gliders", a boat-plane hybrid with top speeds of up to 540km/h.
If it gets off the water, Ocean Flyer would revolutionise transport around Aotearoa and is promising low-cost fares and bus-like frequency through low operating cost of the craft which would dock near many city and town centres.
Apparently AIR Napier needs only $800 million (i.e. less than the current AIR CR) to set up a fleet of environmentally friendly seagliders connecting NZ's major towns - cheaper than AIR's planes, nearly as fast and much more environmentally friendly compared to AIR's fleet of global polluters.
Sure, sounds like the future :cool: , but hey - its not April 1st and maybe this is where we are going (vs moving back into the past).
Hope we’ve all pledged to follow the Tiaki Promise
Air NZ seem to be pretty committed to it pleading to all to take the pledge
We pledge to take care of people places and the environment while we burn billions of liters of aviation fuel into the upper atmosphere where it does most damage...what an awesome pledge lol
Here's a better one, I pledge not to fly on any aircraft unless is absolutely essential for work purposes.
crikey, up 5% ish today. Sorry I just don't get the enthusiasm.
Me neither .. but Rights trading closes on 26 Apr 2022 - Tuesday may have something to do with the flurry of interest :)
SP on Tuesday after Anzac could be interesting, heading up to Rights exercise close on 1 May 2022
At end of the day it's still the same old bag of flying nuts and bolts just restructured :)
Its would appear their refuel for recovery marketing campaign has been a success. Good luck to shareholders, you're going to need it.
airlines being eco is just fricken hilarious.
NZ going to be left out in cold as travel restrictions ease around the world
https://www.oag.com/blog/restriction...-path-recovery
Last day of rights trading today.....
Qantas not mucking about with new aircraft orders. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...ng-haul-airbus
Sydney to London non stop is very impressive range !
Those first class cabin's look okay....at least nobody would be breathing directly in your face. Could have a good long kip in that bed, argue a bit on ST, check out a few movies, eat and drink a lot, spend some time researching entertainment idea's in London and it would be all over in no time.
88% of the rights issue taken up a fair result from N Z's largest airline.
Means 75% of non govt taken up. Not that great when you consider the rapid hounds of the Shaz!
New shares start trading Monday.....will be interesting.....
The AFR is reporting the the retail shortfall bookbuild shares were cleared at 81 cents.
Well I think we all called this one wrong? So far anyway.
yea it was a successful rights issue even the ones who brought heads at the last minute did well
Certainly lack of seats and options AKL - LAX, either way…AIR not in a position to maximise revenue currently??
Well said. I think the market is presently extremely bullish on the reopening and travel prospects but AIR's balance sheet is not going to be in fabulous shape when they report in August even after this recapitalization and of course there's now 3.3 Billion shares so any future earnings when they finally do happen are going to look super weak on an earnings per share basis, even if another refueling isn't required, (and I think its likely they will need another one). I'm staying well away.
AKL/CHC - SIN too, not many flights scheduled and for many of those there's no economy seats available at all. This on a route that the AIR/SIN alliance used to have 4x daily flights to NZ. Prices 2-3x pre-pandemic levels too.
Trans Tasman demand far outstripping supply too.
Begs the question, what is Air NZ doing? They have plenty of planes and crew, why are they not in the air or at least in the schedule?
Maybe they been listening to the doom merchants here..
Pressure now on the NZ government to remove pre-departure testing as more pragmatic countries did long ago. Especially necessary considering the outrageous prices charged for testing in our monopoly riddled plague islands.
Once it goes, demand will be a true tidal wave.
Totally agree, no seats, or ridiculous prices. Add more planes
I haven't seen what I got in the shareholder shortfall allocation from the company as yet, but I got 100% of what I bid for via the broker pool. This is counter to what the company said today but I am waiting to see if scaling happened in the shareholder pool. BTW , I haven't lost my mind and am going long, I am only covering my short!! I would have thought most who had shorted have covered. Can't see who will buy going forward.
If business class travel will likely be more expensive then cruise ship's will surely face some real cost pressures in supplying everything from the 2 types of Oil some use right down to daily fresh baked bread.
Demand is FAR outstripping supply even with them in place on most key Air NZ international routes (LAX, SIN, Tasman). Removing them will as you say cause demand to go even more ballistic. Allowing super normal profits for the airline for the rest of year or until Air NZ and their competitors regain enough confidence in the country to massively increase capacity.
Something no airline seems in a hurry to do, having been previously burned by NZ. Reputational damage from the outrageous and illegal restrictions that NZ used to lock out its own citizens.
I know markets are weak atm, but..... it looks like the long anticipated fall in sp is beginning. Trading at 71cps is equivalent of $1.06 pre raise. I was surprised the rights issue finished so buoyant especially the shortfall bookbuild going through at 81cps. Perhaps those who sold the heads ex rights and also took up there entitlement are now exiting via the rear of the plane. Wouldn't be surprised to see them in low to mid 60's (which equates to about 80cps pre raise).
Well done to Citi and UBS? Certainly met and exceeded their clients expectation.
Took half of my long term short back today @ 71.5 cents . Had to be patient with this one .......
Brought back my short today. Looking forward to the AIRRH and AIRRI cash issues! AIRRG was the 7th issue while listed, so H and I are next in the alphabet for the uninitiated in rights' ticker coding.
Something must have gone wrong .. AIR wasn't supposed to lose altitude like this :)
Was Robbo spotted kneeling on the tarmac in front of a large bird, begging not to be run over somewhere ? :)
Are all the Mum & Dad and Sharesies supporters on holiday or fresh out of coin to jack things up ? ;)
Makes me wonder who jacked it up during the cash issue process ?
Talked to a Sharesies client/investor yesterday who participated and bid for more shares in the shortfall. He was successful in his bid and got all he wanted at 81c.
He is rather horrified to find that the new shares will not be adjusted down to market price so he bailed out of his '53c' shares yesterday to limit his exposure.
Signs of the time.
NZX just updated their website.
3.368B shares on issue, $0.349 NTA per share - perhaps not adjusted for the cash they just got in.....
$811m net assets as at 31/12 + $1.2b just raised. I reckon net assets of approx $0.597 per share.
They lost $376m in the first half of the financial year. I haven't done an indepth search of latest announcements, but they did say full year loss wouldn't exceed $800m. So we'll "be kind" and say $250m loss (no doubt plenty of govt ministers on planes in the next year or so). Another 7.4c per share, taking it down to around 52 cents.
Then further losses expected in following years. Notwithstanding the macro environment with fuel, war, inflation, China lockdown etc etc.
Doesn't exactly look like a bargain at $0.70......;)
When the underwriters IB team are getting well rewarded for the cap raise by AIR, the underwriters Insto trading desk can afford a 'loss leading' long trading position in AIR. All about painting a narrative whilst the issue is still open. Just bewildered mugs were prepared to pay up to 81cps on the shortfall bookbuild - that equates to $1.37 pre rights.
As for the 'horrified to find that the new shares will not be adjusted down' piece, ahaha, welcome to a Dutch auction for a naïve investor.
But what makes the whole charade even more impressive was how the underwriters successfully did this during a period of high fuel prices, very high inflation and economic gloom. Some absolute mugs in NZ with too many dollars and not enough sense.
They only adjust NTA on FY numbers i think, not half year. Plus take off the 50mil on fees
Has nothing to do with NZ. Many humans tend to be in extreme situations hype driven ... otherwise it wouldn't be often fear and greed shaking the markets. Just look at the mugs investing in cryptocurrency ... no fundamentals, 100% hype.
I guess these AIR "investors" (all hoping to make a quick buck - i.e. greed-driven) got at least some fundamentals for their dollar, even if its not a lot and even if the risks for the remaining fundamentals disappearing are not neglegible.
Just another useful lesson in human psychology, even if the people who needed it are most likely to ignore it - again.
Maybe you should study human history ... and then answer your own question:) ;
But if that's too much effort:
one of Einstein's (a quite smart guy) more famous cititations goes like 'Two Things Are Infinite: the Universe and Human Stupidity". It is as well reported that he was not so sure about the infinity of the universe ...
If many people agree, then this is called :"GroupThink". This is an interesting psychological phenomena, but not a good indicator for the relevant groups being right.
And if you need more indicators:
32% of the world's population are Christians, 23% are Muslims, 22% are Hindus or Buddhists and roughly 7% are atheists. OK - Hinduism and Budhism might be from their perspective not necessarily be mutually exclusive with other religions, but the others are with each other and with them.
Now - even 7% of the world population are already more than 500 million people, who clearly can't all be wrong, can they? Without investigating which of these more or less mutual exclusive religions / convictions is right ... no matter, which of them it is - the majority of people clearly must be wrong.
Ouch.
A couple of posts on NTA from last year and Feb this year. IMO NTA after the cap raise is about 35 cents per share incl additional shares. My next prediction, Foran will be gone within 12 months and not because of Henry's article either. Remember the credits still have to be dealt with!! No-one talks about that inconvenient fact. eg I am flying to the US business class in June. Paid $6t return on AIRNZ and used $2T credits. Cash handed over $4T. Cash costs for flight are Fuel cost for the 2 flights circa NZD$240T. Say a biz seat takes up 1% of pax space, that leaves $1600 cash to pay for everything else, staff, maintenance, overhead, airways, airport charges and not least food, Jack Daniels and champagne or $800 per flight. Hopefully they skimp on the maintenance and not the Jack Daniels or champagne and some of the food. Staff I don't care, one pilot is enough(I can help lowering the gear or something, a couple of radio calls, the public time adjustment and weather announcement call too!). And when the board's name change paper to AIR Aotearoa or AeroFlop(Robbo's idea, thanks Min!) comes around the Survive Revive Thrive will be complete. This post all in jest btw except for the numbers.
A380's are back!!
This may have been posted already.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...to-new-zealand
At $28m/seaglider, surely not low cost fares?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/green...to-new-zealand
Looks exciting though, game changer?
"New Zealand-based Ocean Flyer has put down a $1 million initial deposit for 25 aircraft, an order which will eventually cost around $700 million."
28mill each...the small ones only seat 12.
lol
Gee .. looks like the AIR's deflating out of the sails of Robbo's "Covid Air" ? ;)
What's going on ? :)
No comments on this thread for a few days.
I see the CEO recently spent a million bucks buying shares at around 68c.
I’m buying at these levels for the longer term. A cyclical stock that has always provided good returns when bought and sold at the right time.
Share price may not have bottomed out but IMO it’s close enough.
Yes airlines are cyclical but I think you are too soon.
I reckon the full effect of the lock down has yet to show up in Robertson Airlines results.
Further the world economy is about to suffer from deflation, where costs go up but incomes stay the same. Hardly a situation where punters are likely to splash out on discretionary spending such as overseas travel.
I would wait.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Anyone seen a spare bicycle pump laying around ? :)
Maybe the Dangerous Goods Outfit can spare a hot air blower to help out ? ;)
Hard to know. More likely to see SP retreat back to CR as we have often seen historically. Before then being able to form a true lower end trough and rally up off that base. Many headwinds still ahead for Air for sure. Just look how rapidly airline flights are going up. As was to be expected. However the challenge will be attracting people to resume international flights at high volumes with the elevated cost of travel, and higher living costs, higher interest rates, and inflation. For those reasons it would be prudent to expect the airline to struggle for some time yet. CEO buying in is a very small % of net worth and probably more a gesture to show faith and support for the airline, hence why it has been so publicised. Will depend on if the market sees through this, and waits for a global recession to be overcome. Or if there are enough investors willing to buy in at this SP level while knowing difficulties ahead. Odds more in favour of a minor rally if that, then retracement to Cap Raise 0.53-0.55. Who would agree with this analysis?
Has AIR bottomed @ .65 today for now ?
Surely but slowly as expected SP retracing to around CR 0.53. The sow tyre leak to get there
worth starting to do some numbers on the next release of financials.
Time to start agitating for a FMA investigation more like it. Questions I would ask, how did the share price stay supported prior to "fleecing" day. What has driven the stock price action since. Did disclosure meet the needs and requirements of the investor pool as per FMCA requirements. Cash ripped up so far by the public that took the stock, circa $275m. Cash ripped up by the majority shareholder (protected by endless waivers) nil, it got cash and value back. NZX50 down 4% since cash issue close, AIR down 29%. What say you now Mr CEO? Are we in Survive, Revive or Thrive mode. IMO this will got lower and look for 35 cents
ok https://milfordasset.com/insights/ai...-for-taxpayers
.35 would be interesting any takers for .25
Happy to buy more today at 62c - about 9% less than the CEO paid for his and 23% less than the book build.
Things looking brighter at AIR
FY22 loss gone from ‘less than $800m ‘ to ‘better than expectations’ to latest update of ‘less than $750m’
But market don't like it
Share price into the 50s
Reason market does not like it is realisation of massive losses with little positivity for growth and huge turbulent hurdles not magically going away, even with 'open boarders'. Shareholders should not be surprised whatsoever of SP retracting back to 0.53 CR raise level. CEO purchase was nothing more than a ploy to try and have a shot at providing support and confidence to a falling SP. Buying in now is still trying to catch a falling knife, chances are will get cut. Those that gambled thinking SP would somehow magically stage a huge recovery right away obviously weren't reading this forum ;) Still someways to fall yet. Can only hope the CR 0.53 level holds, if that doesn't then there will be a lot of disgruntled investors.
Every little bit of poor news, offshore markets, inflation, continually rising interest rates, continued Russia war and its effect on energy prices etc, will just keep counteracting any brief minor support rallies on the SP. Surprising punters haven't realised this yet, buy orders stack up then a big wallop of a sell order knocks it back down a level taking advantage of those that think the SP price has stabilised. Just need to look at the charts to see solid downtrend still well in place. Timing the bottom can often lead to a few tears for many.
See how easy it is too turn an airline around:
Virgin Australia mulls IPO in 2023 in fast rebound from collapse
"The 53 cents was just a figure pulled out of the hat anyway"
. 35?
the investors were warned.....
An airline float promoted by a private equity fund. The forward projections in the offer document would have to have a very low stall speed and an option for the the subscribers to perform a go-round.
The problems currently being experienced at British Airports suggests the ramp up to pre-covid levels may strike turbulence in NZ.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Doesn’t seem that long ago that Luxon and Borghetti had a clash of egos and Luxon pulled AIR out of Virgin relationship ….selling AIRs 25% stake to the Chinese….loss zillions.
Maybe a blessing in disguise but the whole Virgin fiasco shows how airline execs do silly strategic things.
Never mind, Luxon still can say he ran an airline (or two)
And our Jayne will again be in charge if a listed company.
I see .50 is the 10 year recent low , will that be breached shortly ?
AIA & AIR look like they've done a lot to streamline passenger flows over the last couple of years with electronic check ins & work flow which should put them in good position to handle any increase in traffic.
Meanwhile San Fran still a dogs breakfast to transit through !
Me shudders of thinking in this context about dogs breakfeast. Seen the doghandlers and their beasts at Frisco and LA herding the international transit passengers? Better don't think about turning into one of these beasts breakfeast.
Getting bl**dy difficult to pick a safe and pelasant travel route from here to Europe. Do I prefer to take the risk of being taken down by Russian missiles or is it more pleasant to be munched by some of the US boarder guard bulldogs ...? Decisions, decisions ...
Hong Kong was an easy transit just now. Very helpful staff at the airport. Feels good to be heading away from the Hermit Kingdom.
US airlines getting absolutely pummeled. Cruise ship, casino and hotel stocks too. The reopening trade appears to be dead.
Be careful with this one folks. Highly likely to be below 50 cents very soon and probably headed a LOT lower from there.
Expect fares to jump by 20 per cent says Air New Zealand as fuel soars - NZ Herald
Also saying demand pushing prices higher (for how long??)