Glad you’re back SR, thought you had forsaken us.
Have you had a look at TWR?
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Glad you’re back SR, thought you had forsaken us.
Have you had a look at TWR?
OCA without the Sailor is like Gotham without Batman. The streets are safe tonight people.
Briefly, just a leveraged bond portfolio and I have no idea about the underwriting. Selling bits of paper with promises written on them for hard cash today can be an extremely alluring business but can also lead to a lot of folly.
At some price it would obviously be interesting but when I have Markel and Berkshire on offer with the ability to invest float into equities and operating businesses and some serious fire power on the underwriting side, it's hard to get interested in other insurance companies. I did own Allstate and PGR for a while until they went up too much.
Their balance sheet would be simple to analyse and predict returns from the investing side and then just multiply the leverage to equity but what really matters is the promises they have made, would take weeks to figure it out if you could even, whats lurking out there that could take a bite out of your equity.
Ultimately I'd say it comes down to trust in management, do they have a 20 year plus track record in conservative underwriting.
If you can tell me what their underwriting will be like over the next few years, give me an average combined ratio, and premium volume I can tell you what TWR is worth. Would prob want to know bond portfolio duration but I can find that.
Banks go illiquid before they go insolvent and insurance companies go insolvent before they go illiquid. Unless they are AIG in the GFC.
Gotta be bloody careful in financials.
Satire?
All you would need to do would be scan every stock in the world using an algorithm for these "double bottoms", and trade them to earn outsized returns. No doubt you are already doing this Baa_Baa if you believe that a double bottom indicates a increase in price.
Welcome back SailorRob, I've enjoyed reading your posts tonight :t_up:
A Waxing Gibbous Moon phase also helps, exposing one's Perineum to the light from the Gibbous can lead to outsized returns.
What also works well is these moving averages, you just use them on an index fund ETF thus beating the ETF's return thus beating 'the market' and commanding hundreds of millions in AUM.
Let's stick to OCA, there's no need to over dramatise with algo's for every stock in the world seeking outsized returns.
What has happened since it double bottomed at 0.55, how many percent would the trade be up now, and has the stop loss been hit yet?
Let's not confuse trading with value investing, or disparage the methods and techniques each use to achieve the common goal of building wealth.
Strongly agree, I'd be super interested if you could show me a way of trading and building wealth that could outperform the returns of a simple market index fund over a period of 10 years, particularly if it just involved recognising crude patterns on a stock chart.
Maybe there's a book about it (or 10,000 books about it) that we could learn from.
If trading is better than value investing I need to know.
What!!!.of course trading is better...
Look at the history of OCA...floated at 80c ish...now 59c....that was around 8 years ago...
Trading is great at the current market condition...buy at 55c...sell around 60c ish...rinse and repeat...watch all the poor shareholders cry n mourn😁😁😁
Actually I don't think you are even remotely interested in trading techniques and are taking the piss. Welcome back anyway :)
If you think about it like this, it might help to begin understanding what traders do when they are only focused on market price and have no interest at all in anything about the instrument, whether it has or does not have any underlying fundamental value (think forex, options, futures, crypto etc). Bear in mind there are far far more instruments in the markets that are 'priced' and can be traded than just equities, or their value. Somehow traders manage to navigate trading them without reference to any fundamental value, just price in the market.
The bible for trading chart patterns is Bullkowski, but that will take a while to get your head around it, there is a lot of content and for a skeptic it's like trying to get past the Preface of a new book is too hard, let alone reading the whole content, let alone the charting skills needed to put in effect the analysis, to define the trade strategy. Simply put though, it's about trading probabilities, and every trade in has an exit out.
This is the OCA trade I mentioned https://thepatternsite.com/aadb.html which is still in play. The probability of success is not up there with other patterns, but the return over a short period is worth it if the trade works out. If it doesn't the stop loss exits the trade, in this case still for a profit.
Whether trading by whatever method is better than value investing is moot imo and unknowable, best would be to understand many techniques and leverage the one we think is right for our individual expertise, risk tolerance and the opportunity in front of us.
It might help to acknowledge that not everyone here has a one trick pony style or technique for investing, it's possible that some if not many, have multiple techniques for growing wealth in the market (not just equities), and that might range from short term trading, to momentum trading, fundamental investing, buying indexes, following influencers, long term investing, value investing, etc.