It's not too bad if the price goes down further.
More shares for those of us in the DRP :)
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It's not too bad if the price goes down further.
More shares for those of us in the DRP :)
I see at $3.07 SUM is exactly at the price it was at on 25th July 2013! In that same 12 month period RYM is up about 13% and MET is up about 28%.
Going back a year further or more and Ryman are the clear winners with Met shining over the last year(We will see soon if that rise is justified) Sum need to present a clearer vision and get a bit more commercial mongrel IMHO they have heaps of potential, but my gut feeling tells me that long term Ryman are going to blow all their competition away such is the slick machine they are.
I guess then that you would ecstatic and over the moon if it fell back to $2.95...because that's where its headed after busting through its major resistance (320) two days ago...
Thinking of all those Drps... you will pleased to know that SUM is now in a confirmed bear cycle (busting its bull/bear line 330) and with the increased downtrend momentum pressure you will be even more happier if that huge momentum pressure quickly sliced through 295 to its next support at 280..a la capitulation event..
Some of us got lucky really, I got kicked out at the top of PSAR cycle ($3.58), and had been looking to get back in again. But this movement and general sentiment worries me a little. Especially as capital gains on this stock (with the div where it is) are what most people are (or were) hunting.
I'm with you NewGuy. I think it is a good time to top up for those with cash. I could possibly do better buying, selling, buying, selling, but then I would become a trader, and that's not where I want to be (time consuming). Long term, this is a fairly safe stock, even if my finger nails are slightly shorter due to the recent movement, no one enjoys seeing a share get a decent haircut (okay, maybe those awaiting a good buy in time). The thing is, it will re grow, and be a better stock at the end of it. Long term, I have to keep reminding myself, long term.
Is this post directed to me?
Anyway my 2 cents worth
Being a mostly TA orientated fundamentalist...I don't assume the future too much because there are hundreds of variables affecting SUM and I know only a few of them...From my 40year experience its usually the illogical variable flying out from the left field that stuffs up my longer term forward projections combined together with the slow moving under the radar unnoticeable stuff..also your forward projection estimates are biased, polluted by your present day surroundings e.g today's economic environment conditions...
If you think you are not affected by your surroundings and consider yourself very good at forward projection (as we all think we all are) you should test it out before committing 100's of 1000"s of hard earned dollars...Easy to do...just re-read your old ST posts:)
SUM for the shorter term..I will be back in when the uptrend resumes...or cyclic reversal happens....I'm not greedy so I won't preempting the Market when there is a short term uptick in price creating an attempt to find a near bottom reversal..I will be listening and reading all media's point of views but I will not be relying on the media...I will be gathering my own data, I will be doing my own TA homework and not relying on anyone else's data or their opinion...
When will this happen? ...who knows?..who cares?... not me as I'm not "in" freting about it...Sticking to discipline with stops guarantees me a good nights sleep and keeps my self-esteem high
NG and F4T, you two definitely have the right mindset imho.
I have done a comparison between RYM Annual Report for year end 31-March-2007 and SUM Annual Report for year end 31-December-2013.
The reason for choosing these dates is because in the 21 months from June 2007 to March 2009, RYM's share price slowly dropped 40% from $2.15 to under $1.30 before a slow recovery commencing April 2007.
RYM 2007 Annual Report SUM 2013 Annual Report After Tax Profit Up 18% to $41.6M* Up 131% to $34.2M Revenue Up 33% to $190M Up 41% to $75M Dividend Up 18% to 4.00c/share Up 20% to 3.25c/share Villages 3 Finished, 5 in planning 2 Finished, 2 under consrtn Forward Guidance 20% growth in earnings None
* Pre IFRS for RYM who didn't specify/state underlying profit back then so I have not used it as a measure for SUM or RYM in the table above.
But buying RYM in June 2007 was a GREAT BUY.
Buying RYM in March 2009 was an UNBELIEVABLE BUY.
Summerset's financial position now is not toooooo far different from RYM's back then (Subject to verification, the introduction of IFRS by RYM in 2008 still throws me a curve ball in comparing these, SUM also appear to separate Occupation-Right sales & resales from revenue in their figures, and on top of that SUM includes 'Fair value movement of investment property" as part of its income - I mean, how is that income?).
But with no negative outlook from RYM and purely due to market sentiment (including the GFC), RYM fell 40% in the 21 months following release of its 2007 Annual Report.
RYM's exposure to the international indexes probably wasn't too dissimilar then to what SUM's is now either.
My point is that Summerset could do the same to more or less extent (as RYM could also repeat), or it could recover. My advise is to not gamble by selling SUM through fear (or greed in the hope of buying cheaper) but instead, if the price keeps dropping - and 40% down from SUM's high of $3.60 equals about $2.20 - then buy more.
Addendum: Just read Hoop's post below, and I also agree with his strategy (assuming you're a bloke Hoop) if your not currently holding any SUM. No one knows exactly where the bottom will be for SUM and with market sentiment about as predictable as a lotto draw, TA is the way to go if one wants to get in. Again, imho.
How is that not gambleing
Looks like Sums having a better day than Rym and Met:cool: