There are sometimes "late rallys" on the ASX so opening on NZX is just to achieve parity is it not?
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Most other markets have a minimum lot size, eg 100 shares - why not the NZX? What's the history there?
Seems ludicrous to have share transactions of 1, 2, 3, etc shares being quoted. Isn't that part of what that trader was accused of last month, trying to 'lead the market' with multiple small trades?
OMG market manipulation, what surely not on ATM ............:mad ;::eek2:
Some call it daily GAMES
Lol... bitter isnt it? Got attacked by losing money shareholders....lol
Peace n quiet now....I shall leave the sinking ship to the captain....
Depends where the people are sitting who you ask :) Some people here used to label me "extreme right" (talk with Westerly or El Zorro), while others love to label me "extreme left" (particularly the Trumpistas of sharetrader). The label "woke treehugging greenie" is new for me, but you don't need to be proud to label people.
If you ask me .. I am sitting comfortably in the middle (liberal, not libertarian) and choose at election time whoever is in my view at the time the best party to run the country. Sometimes this is conservative (National / ACT) and sometimes this is conservational / progressive (Green and / or Labor).
Looking at my values - I do value honesty and integrity, which naturally biased me against Trump. I can't stand liars, racists and crooks.
But that's just me ... what about you?
Guilty on all counts - Sometimes I even imagine the trees hug me back. The guys I hang out with in the menz movement certainly do
ATM is currently down to 30% of my portfolio by value with 53% unrealised profit on avge cost of 713. I don't trade, having found I'm not very good at it.
When I have extra money (and as I am now completely retired that is unlikely in the immediate future) I buy whichever of the 8 NZX shares I hold seems the best "buy", and when I need money, I sell whichever seems least likely to go up in the short term. My last buy was PEB at 24, and my last sale was OCA at 110 or thereabouts
Hahha... sinking ship
This is the ATM thread, what ever your thinking "At The Moment".
Meaning I'd rather hear about the mechanics of the business, financial metrics, relevant and real news (not rumour), thoughts regarding use of cash, earnings potential of US market etc etc etc
As opposed to short term thinking of 'market dynamics'. Investing means understanding the business and it's long term prospects. If you're trading or timing the market you'd be more worried about market dynamics over 6-12 months.
Disc: I don't hold so have no vested interest. Making the decision as to whether to hold or not would be aided by some decent discussion re fundamentals.
I don't disagree that "Investing means understanding the business and it's long term prospects", although not in isolation. There are many other market and geo-political factors that should not be ignored.
Hence the old saw, 'do your own research' always applies. Have you done much research into ATM, and do you have anything to offer here, re fundamentals...?
PS. Personally, I always try to 'time the market'. You'd be a fool to rush out and buy at the top, as so many seem to do...
Oh bugger, I thought we had been able to rid ourselves of our recent racist contributor, only to have them pop up on HotCopper re-posting exactly the same garbage.
They seem to be following Beagles lead, get banned here so post over there.
Take the hint people, if your banned from one forum, please don’t go and post the exact same crap somewhere else.
For the record, I only posted one post on Hot Copper to point out pending possible issues with MSCI rebalancing. Coutts, you and others needn't worry about me trying to help others on stocks I don't own any more. I simply can't be bothered with all the negativity that comes with that. Some will be pleased, others disappointed...it is what it is, after 10 years plus my days of guard dog duties on shares in which I have no financial interest are over. I'm 60 this year and simply do not need or want the drama anymore.
Good luck to holders of ATM shares. Also for the record, I have sold all my Kingfish warrants and cleansed myself from any exposure at all to ATM.
Oh, I saw a post about 'downgrades come in threes' etc etc, using the same profile photo, also called 'Beagles'. I apologise on that basis, maybe that wasn't you, perhaps someone is impersonating you on the HotCopper Forum.
Personally, I dont get much value out of negativity coming from posters who dont directly hold a stock. Plenty of them on HotCopper who dont hold A2 yet have a sell sentiment.
Knowledge and insight are appreciated #Beagle. Thankyou
That single post, (there could have been two in the whole holiday period, I can't recall exactly to be honest) did include that famous saying...but as I said I am retiring from guard dog duties on any share I don't own and that specifically also includes, (but is certainly not limited too) Synlait. I know some will be disappointed but 10 years plus is a long time of guard dog duties and the level of negativity that I find that comes from sharing an objective, unbiased but negative view is simply not worth the effort any more.
I remain happy to opine on any company in which I have a financial interest.
Hope you change your mind later on in the year and become a guard dog again. Very helpful to us less experienced investors. Your recent posts on HLG, HGH, TRA, KFL, OCA etc have been quite insightful and again, helpful. However, I do understand if you choose not to given what Greg just posted..
Negative opinion is great when it adds value, but not when it goes to the extreme of personally attacking the investment strategies of others. I don't have any issue with people posting a contrarian view, but there comes a time when its not appropriate to make personal attacks towards other posters, especially when they have made it clear they are no longer present in the forum. Unfortunately true colours appeared with those posts.
If you don't want the negative viewpoints you are going to get confirmation bias.
Naturally a poster with a negative viewpoint won't hold the stock.
You should welcome negative viewpoints and take what you can from them. And the reverse, people should take what they can from positive viewpoints and then make their own investment decisions after doing their own research.
I concur RAWZ
Not sure how to put this in a nice way - however ... anybody who stands negative to a particular stock AND uses his (or her) brain would have sold out, wouldn't they?
This means that you just don't want to see any negative comments on stocks you like and hold. Only holders (who typically would be positive or dumb) are allowed to comment - LOL.
Hint - there is an easy way for you to make sure to only read positive views on any stock you desire. Just stop reading discussion forums and write yourself every day as many positive notes as you desire. Obviously - you won't learn from this exercise and you might miss out on seeing risks others are aware of - but hey, you might feel really good until you monitor next time the share price, this is.
I certainly hope that people keep contributing their views from every angle on any stock, not just from my personal perspective. It is the diversity of thoughts which makes these forums so valuable.
I agree with what you have said, hence why I have also previously said I also appreciate a contrarian view point. I would however question the motives of non holders suggesting the stock is a definite sell at these levels. Easy to suggest people sell out at current levels when you dont hold the stock.
I saw it happen on this forum when we were previously at $11 and several posters were encouraged to sell and did sell, only for the stock to recover above $12 several days later.
Beagle, I dont believe for a minute you are a nasty person. I think things got out of hand previously, and it's probably time we all moved on from that, myself included.
Its a new year, the past is the past, lets leave it there and move into 2021 on a more positive note. Happy new year.
So what? Look - NOBODY is able to predict future stock prices (BTW - this wisdom comes from Ben Graham ...), this includes anybody posting on share trader: Me, you and all the other posters. All posts are implicitly subtitled (just read the share trader conditions) with DYOR.
If anybody is buying just because somebody else said so or selling just because somebody else said so, than they frankly deserve to lose money. This forum is a platform to exchange views and ideas, not to predict future stock prices (which nobody can do).
Could we please keep it that way?
Happy to concede I probably got more than a little "dogmatic". We're all human and prone to weaknesses but I am also happy to be retiring from guard dog duties. Best wishes to all and I hope ATM recovers but for me, I won't be betting on that until the chart suggests a definite bottoming process is well underway. Lots of things should be left in the "2020 file" in my opinion, not the least of them by any means the (at times), very heated debate about repayment of the wage subsidies. Surely that topic has been thrashed about enough already !
OK - shall we talk for a change about ATM, shall we?
They are still on my watchlist and I could imagine buying some at some stage again. However ... this does not look like an uptrend:
Attachment 12241
From a more fundamental perspective ...
Not sure I would call the board a sea of red flags, but they certainly didn't came smelling like roses out of the Hrdlicker saga. Is there any evidence that they have learned from their mistakes and been more skillful in picking the next CEO? Do we know when he starts anyway, or is he still pondering whether he really wants to take the job?
Looking into the history of the second down grade ... did anybody feel that they have a good command and understanding of their trade channels, or did it more feel like the downgrade crept upon them as surprise because they don't really understand their sales channels?
In my view was the story not really a recommendation for a switched on management team knowing what they are doing ....
ATM is still not really cheap. Sure - a forward PE of 21 combined with a forward growth CAGR of 25 sounds really sexy, but only if the analysts predictions come true. What evidence do we have that they might be right? If we learn from the past ... analysts said 12 months ago the stock is an accumulate (i.e. should grow better than average), but SP dropped in 12 months by 30 percent while NZX 50 did grow. Are we sure the same analysts are this time around righter?
Just saying ... I don't know where the stock goes from here - and nobody else does either, but I certainly would not bet the farm on them going up from here, and hey - as the legend KW used to say: "Never drink and buy into a downtrend, you bl**dy idi*t". Do I need to confirm that she was usually right :)?
Discl: not holding;
DYOR and do not sell or buy based just on my or anybody else's posts. They are only meant to provide some food for your own grey cells. "Do Your Own Research"
I often buy in a downtrend and it usually works out reasonably well (though not always, and I have lost my shirt previously doing that). I bought more ATM a couple of days ago. I see an export company with a proven ability for double digit profit growth, expanding into huge markets. I think the current woes are primarily covid-related and doubt there is any reason to see them as representing a fundamental change in the company or market. If that is true, the company will eventually resume growing and the share price will eventually recover.
Big word, that little "if"!Quote:
If that is true, the company will eventually resume growing and the share price will eventually recover.
I've been investing for over 50 years and have made all the mistakes at least once. My biggest lesson has been not to buy in a downtrend but to wait until the worm turns. I miss the absolute bottom, but usually save a lot of angst for a very minor cost. Just my way, of course.
It pays to listen to veterans even if they are novices :)
No one could ever possibly know it all but some rules are definitely worth remembering
Don't see any uptrend either. However, "the trend is your friend, until the end when it bends". The question is when will it bend?
Is there any evidence that the board haven't learned from their mistakes? I'm guessing we would have to wait and see what new CEO has to offer until then it's just pure speculations. My understanding new CEO will start somewhat in February and there was no indication that he would not. Actually GB was saying that new CEO already somewhat involved.
Yes, their handling of sales channels recently was a big surprise. I would not say they do not understand it but clearly something went very wrong in the last few months.
Is ATM cheap? Is forward PE of 21 right one to estimate? I guess it depends on how one sees the company. Some see it as growth story with a temporary bump on the road others see it as failure with no much future or anything in between. Make your pick. My view is a bit more complicated but in general positive.
On the subject of when one should buy or sell for that matter my view is it's absolutely individual choice and nobody's else business. And I must confess some of my best ever investments decisions were made not in a "sober" state of mind.
My research showing me , this business doesn't have depth and it is expanding and it is investing for the future and the business is rolling, doesn't matter how it is.
I believe the double bottom SP is at $10.80 and it is for A2M and it is how it is, I don't wait for the bottom neither for reverse trend , if I feel it is ridiculous cheap I will buy, and if I think it is rediculous expensive , I will sell. Simple!
Wondering if sometimes it would be appropriate to disclose what investment time frame we expect from a holding. I expect to hold ATM for at least 5-10 years and I haven't found a company on the NZX yet where I expect that kind of EPS growth. But then I'm in the enviable position on having bought at 50c.
"The first principle of science is to have sufficient replication in an experiment in order to attain significance. The second principle is to repeat all experiments several times until you are certain the result is consistent only then can you make a conclusion."
something we do is to test the opposite. Repeating the experiment of course is great for check that your equipment is working.
often we find that not enough variations of input or range input data is not great enough to allow a conclusion.
People are programmed to draw conclusions without sufficient data - this is a form of confirmation bias. If you buy a share in a down turn and you lose your shirt you "learn" not to buy in a down turn because somewhere in the back of your mind you "knew" you shouldn't do that. If you buy a share in an up turn and you lose your shirt you don't "learn" anything because you didn't already know not to do that.
Investing may be a science but a very complex science. There are often too many moving parts to fully understand to come to a reliable conclusion. Investing as an art seems to have some merit as people do rely on gut instinct a lot.
All the variables and all the events that come out of left field seem to make investing more of a casino with some shares particularly the high growth ones.
Milk Containing A2 β-Casein ONLY, as a Single Meal, Causes Fewer Symptoms of Lactose Intolerance than Milk Containing A1 and A2 β-Caseins in Subjects with Lactose Maldigestion and Intolerance: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Crossover Trial
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33348621/
This is from National Library of Medicine.
Effects of milk containing only A2 beta casein versus milk containing both A1 and A2 beta casein proteins on gastrointestinal physiology, symptoms of discomfort, and cognitive behavior of people with self-reported intolerance to traditional cows' milk
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27039383/
Now I can understand and firmly confident to say A2 Milk indeed is helping my Autism cousin despite they big pharmac don't want to make it big or letting people know , no wonder A2 Milk is getting so popular as more and more consumers are aware of it by their own experiments.
The future will tell , A2 Milk will replace the traditional so they called milk.
If a small minority of people are better off with A2 (or A1 free) milk and A1 milk producing cows produce more milk than A2 producing cows (hence produce cheaper milk (which is how 'common' milk became A1 dominant)) do you really think A2 will replace A1 rather than supplement it for those who need it?
In the world with full of misleading nowaday , people need to experiment for themselves instead of listening to those scientific approval... it's just dragging us to work generations by generations and spending on things which you can have it for free surrounding us, they will come to limit your "free" sources and making us working and spending on their so called scientific approval. I think at the moment the millennia tend to lean and bases on informations which they are provided instead of aware and experiments the life like us use to be. There will be another problem when they do approved A2 Milk is the milk. For now the facts will just be ignored but will be popular amongst the smart people.
Remember cows use to have only A2 but by some how it is genetics changed for some reasons we do not know.
The autism's rate is rocket from 1 to 1000 children to 1 in 54 children with in 10 years for some reason , we do not know.
But for some reason, they do have data on how much you earn/ where you are, what you type, how much water you use/day...!
A bit hard to read!
I wasn't suggesting that A2 didn't have benefits for certain groups of people but had singled out your idea that A2 will replace 'traditional' milk.
The genetics didn't change - rather they found certain cow breeds produced more milk so selected them, just so happened that those breeds produced predominantly A1 milk.
No if the incidence of autism increased over ten years (and that sounds about right) then A1 milk is not to blame. You probably arent aware that the retail price of milk increased much more than other drinks since the 1980s so less milk is consumed per person. Less healthy options like soft drinks have rocketed up
You need to check from whom the authors in China got funding for their research project.
when its peer reviewed it doesn’t matter who funds or funded the research
there is zero doubt about the health effects
I drink a lot of milk, normally at least a litre a day, often more and notice a massive difference in how my stomach feels depending on whether its standard or A2.
I will second your thoughts ...though I am not allergic to regular milk ( A1 + A2 type ) but I prefer A2 only as it makes me feel better ...I am also big milk drinker since childhood ....though now doctors advise me to go slow on only dairy milk and explore some non dairy options ...not because of any problems but as precaution .
A2 surely is better option . But any A2 will do not just from ATM is also a valid point here
Milford recently lightened up or completely sold out of A2 in its largest fund. TA still looks bad.
when it comes to A2 milk I have two options, The A2 milk company or a single farm brand from close to nelson which is double the price of A2mcompany milk. Makes financial sense to support the company I own shares in. A large moat ATM possess is their capture of the A2 milk supply which is a large moat.
That doesn't mean a lot without reading the article.
I am curious how they assessed inflammation using a pill cam, with any degree of sensitivity or specificity. There must be significant inflammation to be visible macroscopically and big difference between the control/intervention to tell them apart.
The biochemical markers may be statistically significant, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's clinically significant.
Lightened up :
"Elsewhere, a2 Milk surprised the market with a profit downgrade. We still hold a2 Milk in the Fund, however it had been reduced from a large overweight position on evidence of pantry stocking by Chinese mothers in April. Since then a2 has had one of its three major distribution channels, the daigou channel, severely impacted by flow on effects from COVID-19 and increased competition. The company remains on watch for signs that management have the situation back under control."
Milford's moves are well worthwhile taking note as they have a rather rigorous process in place before they invest in or divest out of any investment.
Another major holder Fisher funds and its managed KFL also reduced position just before the December downgrade ...but they still hold it 8% of the fund ..No 5 largest holding ...they also have rigorous process of stock selections
TA tells us another panic bottom is needed ...which can cause that ? Still its not gone below second panic bottom of 10.47 yet ...holding around 10.80 levels ...but with a downward bias .
Maybe market waits for HY results announcement ...HY value we know but thats first opportunity for company to address future guide
That maybe the trigger on both side big movement
I personally think if ATM had not Halted trading for 2 days then 10.47 panic would not have happened
tbh I don't even remember at this stage. Have we had 2 or 3 profit downgrades already?
https://www.fool.com.au/2021/01/21/3...ould-be-a-buy/
Could be a buy.
Bet you when sp moves up, article will change to ‘is a buy!’
we are still short riding the trend down. nothing has changed fundamentally at the moment in regards to the factors affecting a2 sales etc at the moment. be strong stay with the trend.
Are the shorter doing their own market research or just depending on gut feel ? When will they know about any changes at grass root level ...thru company announcement or their own research ? If thru company announcement then stock will open 20% up and then what will they do ? Just curious as in my view shorters also playing with fire at these levels ...playing casino :p
i do my own research. read the thread. I explained on this thread why a2 was past it at the moment well before anyone else here to much abuse of course and dis belief , even the beagle was well behind the bull on this.
even mentioned a number of times as well on here that feihe was the new best thing of course to much dis belief lol . what ya know feihe is at all time highs , a2 at all time lows.
fundamanetals will change again one day but at the moment it is down down down
Ok as u say . U seem to have strong conviction that ATM is going below $ 10 . Will wait to see what happens .
Disclose : No position but following for learning how a strong company SP behaves during a down trend and also want to learn what to know to short a stock at low levels !
Courage of conviction is what I was taught years ago when considering whether an analyst's research and recommendation is worth following.
Does not mean the analyst is going to make the right call (call is for you to decide) but an analyst who's prepared to state Buy or Sell, rather than a placid 'hold' or 'neutral' usually provides compelling reasons as to why.
So this 'could be a buy' comment in the article is a nothing call.
chart indicates the next support level are under 10 and under 8.
While we would love to say its a buy for us the geo risk is still alive and the data will provide a buy or sell signal.
This one is getting to hard to pick until you see the numbers.
A lot hinges on the results. I dont for a minute think that the large institutional holders who last time I checked held between 70%-80% of all available shares (who are still buying like Blackrock) will sit back and let the share price crash to $8 even if the technicals suggest it should.
Why would large institutional shareholders want to manipulate the share price? They bought the shares for a reason and the day to day price of the share does not matter a bit to them (well, maybe for the annual bonus of the fund manager, but I doubt they will manipulate the ATM share price to fix that issue).
Sorry, I think you misunderstood what I wrote. I didn't say manipulate, I'm fairly certain they will start to increase their holdings if they see long term value and a declining share price. The big holders buying will be enough to mitigate any major fall in share price.
That's like saying that hens lay eggs and eggs hatch into chickens!
Pertinent issue is where the institutions see long term value! If there's a third downgrade (high probability) after the new CEO has properly put his feet under the table and go through all the workings of the first two downgrades, long term value may be $7.50!